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Iceman

2019 Fuck Fantasy Football

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Posted (edited)

What's your opinion on not drafting a QB until 2nd to last or last round, if at all?  I have had to stream QBs at different times through the years because of injuries or Byes, but how do you feel about attempting to increase your RB/WR value on your roster in the draft and starting Week 1 streaming the QB, if necessary?

Edited by Iceman

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In a single QB league, there is pretty much no scenario where I take one in the first 10 rounds...but I will take one or two of them late. The odds of a Rivers or Roethlisberger starting the season hot and helping my team is higher than a deep flyer at RB.

 

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Reposting from the 2018 thread:

Here’s my take on the draft this year.

QB is super deep, deeper than I’ve ever seen the position in about 12 years of playing FFB. You can be the last person to pick your QB and be just fine. In 10 team leagues you could even wait until the last few rounds to pick a QB and then stream the position based on matchups - some people may not be comfortable with this. I’m likely not drafting QB until after round 10 (I’m in 10 team leagues). QBs I’m targeting in that range are Goff/Cam/Jameis/Ben. Planning to pair one of those guys with a late round high upside dart throw, maybe Lamar Jackson.

RB is the opposite, super thin. I’m planning to hammer RB in the early rounds. Will probably spend 4 of my first 8 picks on RB. Some RBs I’m high on this season compared to ADP are Cook/Chubb/Kerryon/Freeman/Carson/Ingram/James White/Ekeler. RB kind of falls off a cliff after the top 36 guys or so are off the board so I probably won’t be spending many later round picks on RB and instead will use those on high upside WRs.

WR is deep. Lots of late round options with high upside. Mid to later round WR I like are Mike Williams/Dede Westbrook/Sterling Shepard/Curtis Samuel/Desean Jackson/Jamison Crowder/Anthony Miller/Donte Moncrief.

I’m not spending a high pick on TE but want to grab one of the top 9 or so. I’ll probably target TE in rounds 6-8. TEs I like in that range are OJ Howard/Jared Cook/Vance McDonald.

As always everything is subject to change based on how the draft goes and what guys are falling down the board.

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I’m really curious how the #2 WR spot in Pittsburgh shakes out. Last year AB and juju were #2 and #9 for wr scoring. The Steelers keep calling Moncrief the #2, but I can’t help but feel like it’s only a matter of time before Washington breaks out as the clear #2. They are both going around 50th among WRs. At least one of them, if not both depending on how the Steelers use them will finish well above 50th. 

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Washington is (currently) buried in most rankings.  I’d take a flyer on him in a heartbeat in the 15th/ 16th round.

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7 hours ago, elguapo said:

Reposting from the 2018 thread:

Here’s my take on the draft this year.

QB is super deep, deeper than I’ve ever seen the position in about 12 years of playing FFB. You can be the last person to pick your QB and be just fine. In 10 team leagues you could even wait until the last few rounds to pick a QB and then stream the position based on matchups - some people may not be comfortable with this. I’m likely not drafting QB until after round 10 (I’m in 10 team leagues). QBs I’m targeting in that range are Goff/Cam/Jameis/Ben. Planning to pair one of those guys with a late round high upside dart throw, maybe Lamar Jackson.

RB is the opposite, super thin. I’m planning to hammer RB in the early rounds. Will probably spend 4 of my first 8 picks on RB. Some RBs I’m high on this season compared to ADP are Cook/Chubb/Kerryon/Freeman/Carson/Ingram/James White/Ekeler. RB kind of falls off a cliff after the top 36 guys or so are off the board so I probably won’t be spending many later round picks on RB and instead will use those on high upside WRs.

WR is deep. Lots of late round options with high upside. Mid to later round WR I like are Mike Williams/Dede Westbrook/Sterling Shepard/Curtis Samuel/Desean Jackson/Jamison Crowder/Anthony Miller/Donte Moncrief.

I’m not spending a high pick on TE but want to grab one of the top 9 or so. I’ll probably target TE in rounds 6-8. TEs I like in that range are OJ Howard/Jared Cook/Vance McDonald.

As always everything is subject to change based on how the draft goes and what guys are falling down the board.

I’m on board with all of that and I’m thinking I’d like to have my RB corps pretty well wrapped up with my 4th RB at the tail end of the 5th or early 6th. 

Right now after keepers I’m eying Lindsay, Coleman, White, or Miller as my 4th RB and then not worry about it and fill out with a number of high upside WRs in the next few rounds. 

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So pick one or the other. Keeper league, 1.0 ppr

OBJ (costs a round 1 pick)

Daesean Hamilton (costs a round 13 pick)

I'm leaning towards OBJ as most top notch players are locked up and round 1 is usually round 3 quality. For example I have Kamara costing a round 12 pick. This feels like a no brainer, but thought I'd put it out there as I'm trying to overthink myself.

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Without an idea of what would be available in the 1st round, I’d go with OBJ. He’s just outside the 1st if it’s a 12 team league, but I’d probably game out everyone’s probable keepers and compare it to the draft order. If you’re unlikely to upgrade then it’s a no brainer. 

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Not loving my team.  12 team auction league, PPR

Goff

QB - Goff

RBs - Kerryon Johnson and Aaron Jones

WRs - Michael Thomas, Kenny Golladay, AJ Green

TE - Kelce

DST - Chargers

K- Tucker

Bench - Russell Wilson, Tarik Cohen, Marvin Jones, Will Fuller, Curtis Samuel and Dante Pettis

       
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         

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Ha. Good luck with two prominent players being Detroit Lions. I make it a rule to never draft Lions in my auction league because their value is always inflated, first (local team). And second...they are Detroit Lions. I think Green provides some good value this year. 

I am not completely done with this yet, but this is my list of "sleepers" I might be able to steal in the auction for $1-$5. Some of them deep. Some of them not so much. I would probably bail out of the bidding on any of these guys after $3 or so because I'm planning on spending a ton on my RB1, RB2, WRTE1 and WRTE2. I would definitely appreciate any other sleeper types anyone is eyeing. My draft is Saturday. PPR and 10 pt RuReTD, .1 pt/yard. No particular order. I'm going to need 7 guys in this range to fill out my roster. 

  • Preston Williams, WR, Miamia
  • Keke Coutee, WR, Hou
  • Mark Andrews, TE, Bal
  • Jared Cook, TE, NO
  • Hunter Henry, TE, SD
  • John Brown, WR, Buf
  • Cole Beasley, WR, Buf
  • DJ Moore, WR, Car
  • Curtis Samuel, WR, Car
  • James Washington, WR, Pit
  • Chris Godwin, WR, TB
  • Darrel Henderson, RB, Stl
  • Miles Sanders, RB, Phi
  • Latavius Murray, RB, NO
  • Justice Hill, RB, Bal

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8 hours ago, Baboontyme said:

Ha. Good luck with two prominent players being Detroit Lions. I make it a rule to never draft Lions in my auction league because their value is always inflated, first (local team). And second...they are Detroit Lions. I think Green provides some good value this year. 

I am not completely done with this yet, but this is my list of "sleepers" I might be able to steal in the auction for $1-$5. Some of them deep. Some of them not so much. I would probably bail out of the bidding on any of these guys after $3 or so because I'm planning on spending a ton on my RB1, RB2, WRTE1 and WRTE2. I would definitely appreciate any other sleeper types anyone is eyeing. My draft is Saturday. PPR and 10 pt RuReTD, .1 pt/yard. No particular order. I'm going to need 7 guys in this range to fill out my roster. 

  • Preston Williams, WR, Miamia
  • Keke Coutee, WR, Hou
  • Mark Andrews, TE, Bal
  • Jared Cook, TE, NO
  • Hunter Henry, TE, SD
  • John Brown, WR, Buf
  • Cole Beasley, WR, Buf
  • DJ Moore, WR, Car
  • Curtis Samuel, WR, Car
  • James Washington, WR, Pit
  • Chris Godwin, WR, TB
  • Darrel Henderson, RB, Stl
  • Miles Sanders, RB, Phi
  • Latavius Murray, RB, NO
  • Justice Hill, RB, Bal

Officially adding Marquise Goodwin to the list. He may not go undervalued in UT circles but he will in mine. He's going to start. He had great chemistry with Jimmy G in '17 when healthy. I think I can get him for a buck. 

Others I'm thinking about - both of the GBP WRs behind Adams - not clear who is going to be #2 but I favor Geronimo because his name is awesome. 

Mecole Hardman, KC, WR

Adam Humphries, TN, WR

Trey Burton, Chi, TE

I'm thinking WR3 in Cleveland but I don't know if it's Higgins or Calloway

Daesean Hamilton, Den, WR - probably don't throw enough but I watched this cat in the B1G a lot and he's got skills

Parris Campbell, IND, WR - could break out if AL is healthy. Crazy speed.

I like Justin Jackson in the SD situations if Gordon pulls a LeVeon

Albert Wilson, Mia , WR - interests me. Has always had a lot of potential but I'm not going to take a flyer on him and Preston Williams and I've got my sights set on Williams.

I don't even know if he's going to make the roster, and yes, homer pick but Bennie Fowler, NYG, WR has been a very prominent and reliable target for both Eli and Jones in the Preseason

Darren Waller isn't going to go unnoticed after tonight's Hard Knocks but he's interesting

Dallas Goedert?

 

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Chris Godwin is rated in the mid to high 20's on most boards.

Are you suggesting he is first round talent?   Maybe I am misunderstanding what a sleeper is.  I take it to mean a historically low performer with  high value relative to draft position.  That's not to say i wouldn't pick Godwin, as I think the Bucs offense is primed to produce well; I just don't think of him as a sleeper.

 

I have seen David Johnson dropping into the high teens on some boards.  If he's there for my 2nd round pick(12 team-PPR) it might be too much opportunity to pass up.  I still wouldn't see that as a 'sleeper' pick, but 2nd round value would be worth considering.

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3 hours ago, Iceman said:

Chris Godwin is rated in the mid to high 20's on most boards.

Are you suggesting he is first round talent?   Maybe I am misunderstanding what a sleeper is.  I take it to mean a historically low performer with  high value relative to draft position.  That's not to say i wouldn't pick Godwin, as I think the Bucs offense is primed to produce well; I just don't think of him as a sleeper.

 

I have seen David Johnson dropping into the high teens on some boards.  If he's there for my 2nd round pick(12 team-PPR) it might be too much opportunity to pass up.  I still wouldn't see that as a 'sleeper' pick, but 2nd round value would be worth considering.

Godwin’s current adp is around 50. On individual rankings I’ve seen him as high as the low 20s and as low as >100. 

I was always high on him but Arians comments about him have drawn everyone’s attention to the fact that a really good wr on a team that’s gonna throw a lot had a lot of targets freed up from departing pass catchers. I have the 51st pick in my keeper league as my first pick and would be ecstatic if he falls to me. In my redraft league id be willing to take him in the 4th round depending on how the draft is going to that point. 

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A later round guy that I’m probably going to take a flyer on in both of my leagues is E Sanders. His current adp puts him in the 11/12 round range. That’s a bench spot with WR1 upside. 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

David Johnson the RB?

yes  like in the past week we has dropped to the 17-18 position on CBS' ECR rankings( combined experts and ADP in drafts that have already occured)

Fantasy Football today has him 4th overall

Fantasy Football Pros has him 5th.

 

This brings me to another new way I have approached Fantasy Football drafts since you still have some folks in your league who depend on that site's rankings-  I look for anyone falsely high or falsely low, like I mentioned about DJohnson.  If you have enough dumbasses who follow the script, they will not see the value in those picks.

The advent of the Top 300 cheat sheets was a huge help for the football idiot, but if you do your homework, you can see quite a few ratings that are obsolete/ skewed for whatever reason.  Those ratings sheets can distract the average player from the opportunity you're sitting there waiting to fall in your lap.

Edited by Iceman

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10 minutes ago, Iceman said:

yes  like in the past week we has dropped to the 17-18 position on CBS' ECR rankings( combined experts and ADP in drafts that have already occured)

Fantasy Football today has him 4th overall

Fantasy Football Pros has him 5th.

 

This brings me to another new way I have approached Fantasy Football drafts since you still have some folks in your league who depend on that site's rankings-  I look for anyone falsely high or falsely low, like I mentioned about DJohnson.  If you have enough dumbasses who follow the script, they will not see the value in those picks.

The advent of the Top 300 cheat sheets was a huge help for the football idiot, but if you do your homework, you can see quite a few ratings that are obsolete/ skewed for whatever reason.  Those ratings sheets can distract the average player from the opportunity you're sitting there waiting to fall in your lap.

When I’m doing an online draft, the day before the draft I’ll take my rankings and that site’s ranking each numbered and sorted by name and then just do a calculation to get the difference in rankings and sort by the difference to get a quick look at who are good targets to get a round or two later than they should go. My league that live drafts makes it harder to do because everyone comes with a different ranking sheet. 

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One sleeper I'm definitely taking in as many leagues as I can is Darwin Thompson. I hope the buzz on him stays low so his ADP doesn't start moving up.

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Ok so we are drafting this weekend standard league and I haven’t done jack on analysis. Any links for a good crash course ..?

I know all the major sites have one I guess I can just pick an couple.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, HiggyBaby said:

Ok so we are drafting this weekend standard league and I haven’t done jack on analysis. Any links for a good crash course ..?

I know all the major sites have one I guess I can just pick an couple.

https://footballabsurdity.com/beersheet-request-form/

that and fantasy pros

Edited by heso

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I’ve got the 3rd pick tonight. Lamar’s and Saquon for sure gone. Not sure i trust this Zeke situation, so feeling McCaffrey? Or Hopkins maybe?

Thoughts?

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Posted (edited)

Never too early for Mahomes...

If you're not on the Mccaffrey train, and I understand that with the way the Panthers look right now...

David Johnson, Hopkins, or Davante Adams would be my considerations in that scenario.  I too would shy away from Zeke.  Hell i have the 7th pick in ours and if he falls that far I still might not pick him unless things firm up in the next 10 days.  DJ in that offense is intriguing as hell to me.  He's going to get touches, and that pays off in FF.  The Cards also do not have their dominant D from the Ariens years and will be playing from behind, a lot!   Can he stay healthy?  That's my biggest question.

It's hard not to pick a RB there, but getting a #1 WR isn't the worst move in the world.  There are compelling arguments for both DHop and Adams.  Look and see what the most likely available RB picks will be there for your 2nd and 3rd picks.  If you like those possibilities, then roll with a WR in Rd 1.

Edited by Iceman

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Hope y’all early drafters avoided the Colts.  Don’t understand why anyone drafts before Labor day weekend. 

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Draft was a blast. I'm pretty hammered. I think we did ok. We do auction, I outlined it in the other thread. We kept Bell for $40/$200. Went balls out for 3 other guys (we do WR/TE). It's PPR and 10 pt RuReTD. Got Conner ($56), Tyreek Hill ($50) and Amari Cooper ($40). Rest are scraps but I'm happy with those as a top 4. Got Old Man Rivers and Derek Carr to chuck the rock to them. My $1 backups include Justin Jackson, Tyrell Williams, Preston Williams (my dude), Ebron, Jared Cook, Royce Freeman. I have a feeling I will be active on the waiver wire. 

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47 minutes ago, Iceman said:

Hope y’all early drafters avoided the Colts.  Don’t understand why anyone drafts before Labor day weekend. 

Next eek far hors 

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22 hours ago, Sleepygrad said:

I’ve got the 3rd pick tonight. Lamar’s and Saquon for sure gone. Not sure i trust this Zeke situation, so feeling McCaffrey? Or Hopkins maybe?

Thoughts?

I don’t know if you’re in ppr or half ppr, but i hope you drafted Mccaffery and moved on. He’s a ppr cheat code. A strong case can be made that he will end the season as the #1 rb. This year with all the Zeke nonsense, 3rd pick might be the best pick in the 1st rd. 

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So yesterday Lamar Miller and Andrew Luck drop out of the race. This is disappointing to lose 2 "chart fillers" whom I would never have drafted.

Now it takes 2 picks of the board from the owners who rely so heavily on picking just from reading the list and increases( however slightly) the chances of them picking a player I wanted.  Miller in particular was rated waaaaay too high because of injury risk, IMHO.

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Drafted yesterday. Six mins after the draft ends Miller goes down. Later Luck. Both owned by the same person. 

I drafted David Johnson 6th (Bark,AK,CM,Zeus....then Chubb). 

Not feeling good about it. Over reacted and drafted Fournette Guice Hunt, and D Montgomery. Hopefully 2 pan out. 

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Luck and Miller shouldn’t have been drafted high in snake or spent much in auction.  The guy in my auction that drafted luck also had Wentz.  He’s probably better off.  He can save a roster spot and pick up someone like Darwin Thompson. 

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2 minutes ago, housious said:

Why the hell do your leagues do drafts so early?

because Labor Day weekend is sacred.

 

We told our guys, "Fuck that.  It will be the Tuessday after Labor Day.  Suck it up."

 

Have done so for quite a few years now.

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27 minutes ago, housious said:

Why the hell do your leagues do drafts so early?

We do third weekend of August.  Because three guys in our league have birthdays August 25. And Labor Day is impossible.  So we always draft around the second preseason game.  Don’t care.  We are an auction league.  And waivers are auction.  Real cash. So spend whatever you want on waivers.  Just adds to the pot.  Now so many teams don’t even play starters in preseason so it doesn’t matter when draft is. 

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1 hour ago, Iceman said:

because Labor Day weekend is sacred.

 

We told our guys, "Fuck that.  It will be the Tuessday after Labor Day.  Suck it up."

 

Have done so for quite a few years now.

We always do ours the Tuesday after Labor Day. Sucks getting bitten by preseason injuries.

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1 hour ago, housious said:

Why the hell do your leagues do drafts so early?

In one of my leagues, we did our draft last weekend because we were able to get a suite at an Oakland A's game. Second year we've done that. Next year, we're going back to the Sapphire in Vegas.

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Posted (edited)

Just got done with our 12 man $200 dollar auction with keeper/sleeper from last year--off the top of my head:

QB-Rivers $1

RB1-Kamara(Keeper)

RB2-David Johnson $69

WR1- Keenan Allen $low 40s

WR2- Calvin Ridley(sleeper)

TE- old man Delani Walker $4

FLEX- Sony Michel($39-struck out on some RBs that went more than I wanted and I hate Pats players but i think hes gonna be one of their best players)

Kicker-Prater $1

Pats D $1

Robby Johnson, Jordan Howard, Ebron, Stills(lol) and a few other scrubs.

Wish my WRs were a tad stronger, may need to hope on winning a waiver bid to help boost that. Obviously the bread and butter is 2 top 5 RB's. i was bid up on DJ but damned if I can nab 2 top tier RBs in an already thin position.

 

and holy shit tight end position just needs to be dismantled. After Ertz and Kelce...what a shit show of shit

 

Edited by MNLonghornFUKM

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Yeah, the TE position is a shit show. Ertz and Kelce were keepers in our 14 team PPR league. Kittle went in the 4th. After that, it's a crap shoot. I ended up taking Hooper in the 11th round.

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16 hours ago, housious said:

Why the hell do your leagues do drafts so early?

 

Literally because a majority of the league are inconsiderate and slightly prickish 

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Who Do I Keep? (3 keepers, PPR, I lose my first 3 picks)

Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, McCaffrey, Gurley

Yeah, I won the league last year. 

Just for fun, I have Chubb and Kittle in there too. 

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58 minutes ago, castolon said:

Who Do I Keep? (3 keepers, PPR, I lose my first 3 picks)

Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, McCaffrey, Gurley

Yeah, I won the league last year. 

Just for fun, I have Chubb and Kittle in there too. 

Mahomes, Adams, McC

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WTH is a ‘Sleeper’ designation, with regard to a draft structure?

I understand what it means in describing a player, but ia few. posts up, somebody mentioned that one of their draft picks was designated as a sleeper. 

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