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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19


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31 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Except they don't look to have it park and spin around over Houston for days.  That's a pretty important distinction.

Steering mechanisms are relatively unknown at this point anyway. 

I was more referring to the Bay of Campeche origin and NNW track, although Harvey was a tropical wave that reorganized there then moved north.

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9 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

This seems well not great. Read the highlighted portion at the bottom of the forecast. 

 

I believe that it would be the case if TD 3 were to move too far inland, dissipate, and reform (again) in the Bay if Campeche/GoM, it would have to be renamed TD 4.

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1)  There is always, and I mean pretty much always, an early thing that forms off of Mexico each hurricane season.  This is right smack dab as usual in something like 7 of the past 10 years.

2) These things seem to go N/NE through the Gulf, even though this one has some spaghetti taking it into the Houston/upper Texas coast area.  My guess is that the track will shift eastward.  In any event at this point it's unlikely that Austin would get a lot of rain from it, unless it stalls in the Bay of Campeche and we get outer bands which can get pretty rainy, coming in from the SW around the northern end of the low.   I'd still roll the dice that the coast from LA east through N/North Central FL will be the area of landfall.  Of course it's hard to track something that hasn't formed yet, but upper air patterns this time of year usually push these things a little eastward, whereas later in the summer (later July on) they often push them farther west (big Gulf/Atlantic high hasn't really formed yet as is usual for the summer).

3)  Strength?  No one knows, and no one can know.  As I said last season and quoted an article (I'm sure you remember every word), we're almost to the limit of what the algorithms can do in regard to storm strength forecasting.  If it does get to Cat 2 or even 3, at this time of year it usually doesn't last long.

I'ma watchin' it, not too concerned right now, we'll see. 

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33 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

Image

Definitely getting organized this morning. My guess is recon will find Cristobal 

Already looks like a TS today.  I believe recon is scheduled for this afternoon.  
 

phd is correct, for the last few years almost to the date, something forms right there and usually cruises West and buries itself into Mexico or goes North the East.  Rarely do they come straight North to Texas.

But it is also 2020.

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3 hours ago, phdhorn said:

1)  There is always, and I mean pretty much always, an early thing that forms off of Mexico each hurricane season.  This is right smack dab as usual in something like 7 of the past 10 years.

2) These things seem to go N/NE through the Gulf, even though this one has some spaghetti taking it into the Houston/upper Texas coast area.  My guess is that the track will shift eastward.  In any event at this point it's unlikely that Austin would get a lot of rain from it, unless it stalls in the Bay of Campeche and we get outer bands which can get pretty rainy, coming in from the SW around the northern end of the low.   I'd still roll the dice that the coast from LA east through N/North Central FL will be the area of landfall.  Of course it's hard to track something that hasn't formed yet, but upper air patterns this time of year usually push these things a little eastward, whereas later in the summer (later July on) they often push them farther west (big Gulf/Atlantic high hasn't really formed yet as is usual for the summer).

3)  Strength?  No one knows, and no one can know.  As I said last season and quoted an article (I'm sure you remember every word), we're almost to the limit of what the algorithms can do in regard to storm strength forecasting.  If it does get to Cat 2 or even 3, at this time of year it usually doesn't last long.

I'ma watchin' it, not too concerned right now, we'll see. 

Thank you.  Ill be following you.  We're on AL coast, so watching it closely.

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First good helping of spaghetti shows what I suggested... moving N to NE, central Louisiana right now sorta kinda a little bit maybe could be a landfall.

storm_03.gif

This of course is as reliable as a UT defense since 2010.  But it's a start.

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Latest:  Still looking like a northward movement, again this is about 20% reliable.
If that happens, Austin will actually get hotter and drier (temps near 100) due to being on west side of storm, over-land air being pulled down, condensed and made hotter.   

Current forecasts keep it to TS level, maybe Cat 1.  Again, this is almost a coin flip at this stage.  We do know water is about 3-4 degrees above normal down there, which is conducive to formation, but other factors could inhibit it.

My guess is it ramps up to Cat 1 or so then down to medium-strong TS about 55-65 mph winds.  At least that's what the Magic 8 Ball said when I asked it.

Still think though that this isn't going to be a Texas storm, maybe extreme east (Beaumont area) on outer edge.

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1 hour ago, Dewey said:

How much rain is it for that part of Mexico?

10-20 inches (10 has fallen already in parts of the Yucatan), maybe up to 30 in some spots if it does the expected little loop before moving N.
 

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There is still a less than zero percent chance that this heads to Texas.  They probably won't know until late Thursday or Friday morning...and even then impacts to life and land can vary greatly by just a few hundred miles.  There are a few models calling for this to stall for a day or two while Cristobal sits and spins.  If that happens or if Cristobal strengthens more than anticipated, it could still head to SE Texas landfall. 

024008_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

 

Edit:  I'm not posting this to contradict Frankie Phd (he's forgotten more about weather then I'll ever know), but I follow many meteorologist on other forums and they are saying it's a little too early to conclusively say it's not a concern for Texas.  Most likely this is a LA storm, but we will know more in a couple of days.  There was a time when Harvey had a zero percent chance of development and we all know how that turned out. 

Edited by Hate
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8 hours ago, Hate said:

Edit:  I'm not posting this to contradict Frankie Phd (he's forgotten more about weather then I'll ever know), but I follow many meteorologist on other forums and they are saying it's a little too early to conclusively say it's not a concern for Texas.  Most likely this is a LA storm, but we will know more in a couple of days.  There was a time when Harvey had a zero percent chance of development and we all know how that turned out. 

No problem, just as long as it's clear that: 1) I'm "educated guessing" just like they are, and no one knows yet where it'll go, true.  My blurb was a hunch, not a prediction.  Well, maybe a little prediction, but not a real strong live-or-die prediction.  Kind of a predictionette. And 2) I did say that it's all a coin flip, as usual, for now.  Which it is.  

However, models are actually pretty close now, which makes it a little more reasonable:
03L_tracks_latest.png

I still think it's going up the Central Gulf, and won't be a Texas storm. Could this be completely wrong?  HELLYAH!  But for today, this is it.

Harvey - ugh.  Man I was totally wrong about that - not so much the forecast (e'erbody got that wrong, but to be honest, it did something that less than 1% of storms do), but more the cavalier attitude - move along, nothing to see here, etc.  From that point I kind of learned the lesson to not be so poo-pooey about these things (even though I knew that).

Edited by phdhorn
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To be clear, I was not busting your balls at all about this storm or Harvey. People like to make fun of weathermen for being wrong like it’s a simple science. It’s not and forecasting tropical storms is extremely difficult, especially when they are still forming. I’m a weather dork, so I read a few different weather forums when there is some “bad” weather forecast for our region. I like to post as much of the pertinent information as I find with the idea that maybe some posters enjoy it as well as maybe make them aware of something they may not have paid much attention to otherwise. Your post are very much appreciated and respected.

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5 minutes ago, Hate said:

To be clear, I was not busting your balls at all about this storm or Harvey. People like to make fun of weathermen for being wrong like it’s a simple science. It’s not and forecasting tropical storms is extremely difficult, especially when they are still forming. I’m a weather dork, so I read a few different weather forums when there is some “bad” weather forecast for our region. I like to post as much of the pertinent information as I find with the idea that maybe some posters enjoy it as well as maybe make them aware of something they may not have paid much attention to otherwise. Your post are very much appreciated and respected.

Oh I know, didn't take it that way.  But my balls have been busted without help in the past, lol!  No problem, thanks.

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58 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

State of Campeche seeing biblical amounts of rain.

 

That's more than 13 inches in the past 24 hours for those that don't have a calculator handy

Calculator? We measure that in South Austin mom type numbers. 

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