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Hey Oil Barons.......

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Briefly approached $42.50 at one point this morning, but ended up settling at $41.96.

That's the first time we've closed above $41.30 since Oil War Friday, March 6th. 

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Chevron really wanted Anadarko, and Anadarko has substantially better assets than Noble. Chevron was willing to pay nearly as much and could have sustained that price a lot better than Oxy. Yes, they got lucky they lost. I doubt they’re laughing because they know they almost had it. And would have been just fine, versus Oxy. 

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My observations based solely on a domestic onshore perspective:

I believe Noble is largely a non-op in Delaware Basin, so Chevron saw a distressed asset and a way to increase their working interest/net acres/kick Noble out of their wells. Chevron really didn't have to do this, they own plenty of company fee acreage, but the deal was too good to walk away from. 

Noble's assets in DJ Basin are pretty good. 

Noble has finished rounds of deep layoffs, so Chevron gets the assets without many of the personnel headaches. 

It was a really smart buy, but that's what Chevron does. 

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Added 1 oil rig this week, but dropped 3 more gas rigs, taking the total active rig count down 2  to 251. That makes this the 20th straight week with a decline.

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There can’t be many workers left at a schlumberger ?
Well it says 21,000 is about a quarter so my guess is about three quarters left?

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If they still have 60,000, more cuts are coming 

lot of college grads getting $100k sign up bonus in 1.5 to 2 years 

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2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

If they still have 60,000, more cuts are coming 

lot of college grads getting $100k sign up bonus in 1.5 to 2 years 

The industry might be back to handing out sign up bonuses in two years, but not $100k.  Especially not at a service company.

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Posted (edited)

Anybody tailgating for Trump in Odessa on Wednesday?  

IOGCC & PFA are making an important stand, glad to see it.  

Edited by Lobo

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On 7/25/2020 at 3:05 PM, tx 3 putt said:

If they still have 60,000, more cuts are coming 

lot of college grads getting $100k sign up bonus in 1.5 to 2 years 

Haven't heard of any signing bonus since 2014, much less 100k

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6 hours ago, Lobo said:

Anybody tailgating for Trump in Odessa on Wednesday?  

IOGCC & PFA are making an important stand, glad to see it.  

Non-entities for the oil industry.  Double Eagle will be hosting them. Go troll somewhere else, weirdo. 

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Looks like Sec. Brouilette wants to make some overtures to independent operators and address their concerns over the dumping on Gulf refineries by Saudi Arabia.  At least it beings a dialogue.  

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On 7/27/2020 at 9:29 PM, Dr. Beeper said:

Non-entities for the oil industry.  Double Eagle will be hosting them. Go troll somewhere else, weirdo. 

His roundtable/reception in Odessa is being hosted by Double Eagle?  It appears to be being hosted by his Odessa bundlers that are independent operators, not Double Eagle.  But hey "i'm a weirdo."  Not a troll, it's an important day for the industry.  Rex and I see it that way at least, you should too.  

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8 minutes ago, Lobo said:

His roundtable/reception in Odessa is being hosted by Double Eagle?  It appears to be being hosted by his Odessa bundlers that are independent operators, not Double Eagle.  But hey "i'm a weirdo."  Not a troll, it's an important day for the industry.  Rex and I see it that way at least, you should too.  

Google Double Eagle Trump. DE is an independent operator, you buffoon. You’re totally trolling; talking about some no name organizations nobody has ever heard of “making an important stand, glad to see it.”  You’re a fucking weirdo troll trying to stir shit up everywhere you go. Fuck your own face. 

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I know they're an independent operator, I didn't say they weren't.  I was merely pointing out they're not hosting all the President's events in Midland-Odessa today.  You don't have to be rude about it.  I don't know that these are no-name guys, they bundled $5mm together.  Wasn't trolling, wanted to see if you were gonna be there.  Rex and I are.  

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1 minute ago, Lobo said:

I know they're an independent operator, I didn't say they weren't.  I was merely pointing out they're not hosting all the President's events in Midland-Odessa today.  You don't have to be rude about it.  I don't know that these are no-name guys, they bundled $5mm together.  Wasn't trolling, wanted to see if you were gonna be there.  Rex and I are.  

And I was pointing out that DE is hosting them. I do have to be rude. You’re injecting politics where it is not wanted, like you do everywhere you go. They are total no name guys, and the entire reason for mentioning them is to show the thread you’ve heard of some different groups in attempt to appear to be smart, and to denigrate Trump. Fuck you for making me defend Trump, and fuck off with your constant political trolling. It is not wanted here. 

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Where did I denigrate him on here?  I mentioned he and the sec. of Energy are visiting the PB, I think that qualifies as "Energy News."  I didn't make you defend him on here, at all....that was your choice.   I just mentioned his visit. 

But you make a valid point, the mods have enough political stuff to wade through, they don't these Oil Baron thread search results clogging up their day.  Besides, there'll be plenty of news and links 'n shit later today/tomorrow about their comments in the PB.  Have a great day and some rep.  

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Rex is a bit cranky today. 

You would be as well if you shit yourself while jogging

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6 minutes ago, Updawg said:


You would be as well if you shit yourself while jogging

Near misses 3 times. In hindsight, in terms of weight lost, a successful venture. 

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EIA reported biggest crude draw of the year, -10.6M barrels, but sizeable increases in gasoline and petroleum products. Overall pretty neutral report. WTI continuing its nearly month long trend of not straying far from $41.

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9 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

EIA reported biggest crude draw of the year, -10.6M barrels, but sizeable increases in gasoline and petroleum products. Overall pretty neutral report. WTI continuing its nearly month long trend of not straying far from $41.

I swear we’ve averaged $40 the last 60 days. $41 is not a bad place to camp out while waiting on a vax, considering where we were 3 months ago. 

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1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Rex is a bit cranky today. 

Rex is my hero.   Gives me advice on my royalty interests. 

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15 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

I thought the US was already exporting oil to Mexico ?

I think what he signed was for approval for specific infrastructure.  Like pipeline right-of-ways, construction of railroad bridges across the border, etc... I assume it requires his approval because of crossing international borders, but not sure.

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Quote

Exxon Mobil Corp is preparing deep spending and job cuts, according to people familiar with the matter, as it fights to preserve a 8% shareholder dividend with a multi-billion-dollar quarterly loss looming.

It was unclear how extensive the cuts will be. The largest U.S. oil company slashed this year's budget by 30% in April, but Chief Executive Darren Woods's turnaround through rebounding demand and increased asset sales have not panned out and losses are climbing.

On Friday, Exxon is expected to report a $2.63 billion second-quarter loss, according to Refinitiv Eikon data, on sharply lower prices and weaker production, the first back-to-back quarterly losses in at least 36 years. Shares are down 35% so far this year as the coronavirus pandemic has crushed fuel demand.

The latest cost cuts are needed to preserve the company's nearly $15 billion annual payout to shareholders in the face of rising losses, the people said. Exxon will not generate enough cash from production operations to cover this year's dividend, analysts have said. It borrowed $18 billion earlier this year to bolster cash.

Cutting that fat 8%  dividend would hurt the stock price and the executive bonuses, so we cant be doing that. I guess Exxon can always hire back employees later  on if needed so fuck em. 

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38 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I guess Exxon can always hire back employees later  on if needed so fuck em. 


they could cut 20% and rehire those positions over the rest of 2020 at much lower salaries and benefits. Much hungrier employees too 

Edited by tx 3 putt

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1 minute ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Why do some economists / people who comment on oil prices still hang onto this notion that storms in the Gulf have any bearing at all on oil prices?

Because it’s in the old Rolodex.  

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3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Because it’s in the old Rolodex.  

It’s multiple people but in this case it’s an older economist.  He always mentions it during hurricane season in his commentary and it hasn’t mattered for at least 6-7 years. I just don’t get why smart people, no matter how set in their ways, can’t say, “I’ve been used to analyzing it this way, but this is now a largely irrelevant factor.”

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13 minutes ago, Moby Ric said:

NatGas spiking hard today.  Anyone know why?

No idea, all I could find:

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-forecast-natural-gas-markets-shoot-through-200-ema-664772

Spoiler

Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Shoot Through 200 EMA

The natural gas markets shot straight up in the air during the trading session on Monday to kick off the week, breaking through the 200 day EMA.

Christopher Lewis

2 hours ago (Aug 03, 2020 03:18 PM GMT)

Natural gas markets have shot through the roof during the trading session on Monday to kick off the week, slicing through the 200 day EMA. That being said, we are dealing with the $2.00 level, an area that of course will cause a certain amount of psychological resistance. Over the last several months, we have been building on this range, and I think we are trying to put in some type of bottom for the market longer term, due to the fact that we are seen bankruptcies out there, and that should bring down supply in theory. Furthermore, there has been a pretty significant amount of heat in the United States driving up demand.

Add in a tropical storm in the fact that the US dollar is losing value, then you have an opportunity for natural gas to reclaim some real estate to the upside. I think we probably have a pullback ahead of us, but I would be willing to buy that dip, especially somewhere near the $1.80 level if we can get down there.

If you have the ability to trade in small increments, then we could be looking at a potential trend change, at least for the second half of the year, which could provide a nice little opportunity. I do not have any interest in shorting this market because we are so low from a historical standpoint. When you zoom out several years, you can see that clearly the $1.50 level was a major turning point more than once.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

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3 hours ago, Moby Ric said:

NatGas spiking hard today.  Anyone know why?

Weather flipped to hotter in South and East, LNG exports increasing faster than expected, 914 for May came back showing the hard numbers of how much production has declined, etc.  

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5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Weather flipped to hotter in South and East, LNG exports increasing faster than expected, 914 for May came back showing the hard numbers of how much production has declined, etc.  

Or more buyers than sellers. 

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I'm just curious if this is going o be a trend for the foreseeable future.  I have not seen or heard anything about prices going up.

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7 minutes ago, Moby Ric said:

I'm just curious if this is going o be a trend for the foreseeable future.  I have not seen or heard anything about prices going up.

Gas or oil?  Oil’s been steadily going up since April 20th but has met with resistance at $41 over the last 45 days. As of last Friday it had averaged $40.67 over the preceding 30 days with no high or low 3% away from the mean. That is a market waiting to see what happens with Covid demand and global supply.

I haven’t been focused on gas and would be surprised if it’s even somewhat related to weather but I defer to Trey a lot. 

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Gas or oil?  Oil’s been steadily going up since April 20th but has met with resistance at $41 over the last 45 days. As of last Friday it had averaged $40.67 over the preceding 30 days with no high or low 3% away from the mean. That is a market waiting to see what happens with Covid demand and global supply.

I haven’t been focused on gas and would be surprised if it’s even somewhat related to weather but I defer to Trey a lot. 

Gas is what I am looking at.

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17 minutes ago, Moby Ric said:

I'm just curious if this is going o be a trend for the foreseeable future.  I have not seen or heard anything about prices going up.

Most analysts selling info have been predicting prices going up since April. The prices haven’t actually gone up yet. Supposed to be over 2 now. We’ll see if the magic happens in a couple months 

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45 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Most analysts selling info have been predicting prices going up since April. The prices haven’t actually gone up yet. Supposed to be over 2 now. We’ll see if the magic happens in a couple months 

$2.11 right now. No idea about the curve, but I would agree with “most analysts”. Gas with a 1 handle doesn’t make sense with all the assoc gas that had been shut in and even though it’s resumed somewhat, it’s not a terribly sustainable supply with a lack of well completions in the Permian that won’t resume for awhile. 

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