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satyanash

S&P+ rankings: Overperformance or overcorrection?

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How do we know how strong your conference is if the schools don't play each other or other P5 schools? I mean we know they can beat FCS and G5 schools most of the time...

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I find it both odd and hilarious that SP+ is at its best against the spread early in the season, when preseason polls get the most weight. You'd expect a model to get more accurate with more data, but Connelly's seems to do the opposite? IDK

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6 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

How do we know how strong your conference is if the schools don't play each other or other P5 schools? I mean we know they can beat FCS and G5 schools most of the time...

Well, you assume the secsecsec is the best and the Big 10 is the second best and just roll from there. 

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On 1/2/2020 at 3:31 PM, texifornia said:

Ok what the shit is that lineup of teams

 

A backwater line-up. When I was a really little kid in Nashville (mid-'70s), I was a Rams, Reds, Rockets and Horns fan. Everybody else in Nashville back then was like that, though most were bandwagon Steelers or Cowboys fans. Everybody in Nashville is some different SEC team or other -- the Vols are mainly for the t-shirt rabble.  

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On 12/13/2019 at 7:51 PM, satyanash said:

I find it both odd and hilarious that SP+ is at its best against the spread early in the season, when preseason polls get the most weight. You'd expect a model to get more accurate with more data, but Connelly's seems to do the opposite? IDK

Most computer polls do this.   It's not that they don't get more accurate, it's that the general betting population goes from super dumb to crazy accurate, so the grading curve sharpens as the season goes on.

Edited by JBJ

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