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Anastasis

"Easy" Money Come Election Day (Prediction Market Gambling)

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Figures a better place than the gambling board.  Let's see how much "easy" money with can identify.

I am on the following positions:

Who will control House after 2018?  Currently Dem YES @ 0.69 and GOP NO @ 0.65.  I say back the truck up on both.

Balance of power in Congress after midterms.  I am playing NO on GOP HOUSE/GOP SENATE.  Currently trading @ 0.65.

Will Manchin be re-elected? Currently YES @ 0.77.

And a stretch, but I think that the odds are worth it. Will Ted Cruz be elected? No @ 0.23.  Will look to exit if there is any bump based on early returns.

Trump impeachment in first terms. YES @ 0.41.  Think this bumps after the Dems take the house and/or when the Mueller report is issued.

 

Any other plays for today/tomorrow?  Obviously I am hosed if the Dem's don't take the House, but I don't see that happening.   

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Be quick to act if something unexpected happens.  I recall election night 2016, Hillary was the gambling favorite until it was becoming apparent she was losing too late in a few states.  The betting moved in very quickly that made Trump the overwhelming favorite.  It seemed to happen within minutes.   

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1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Are you using PredictIt, or one of the sports books?  I may need to look into these tonight.

PredictIt.

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6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I've added Kevin McCarthy as NO for next speaker @ 0.76.

Since Kevin McCarthy is almost certainly the speaker if the GOP wins, it seems like there's a good parley available there. 

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What is the experience of cashing out from PredictIt?  I know some sportsbooks only allow it above a certain amount, basically screwing small time gamblers.  And they don't always advertise the minimum until you want to cash out.

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Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

What is the experience of cashing out from PredictIt?  I know some sportsbooks only allow it above a certain amount, basically screwing small time gamblers.  And they don't always advertise the minimum until you want to cash out.

They rape you with a 5% fee. 

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3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Dems take Senate if it's under .20 cents 

 

@ 0.17.

 

Better play if you want that bet is to just go all in on Dem House and Dem Senate Congressional control @ 0.13. 

 

 

Edited by Anastasis

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7 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Better play if you want that bet is to just go all in on Dem House and Dem Senate Congressional control @ 0.13. 

Was coming to post that.  I’d take a flyer on that. 

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35 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Was coming to post that.  I’d take a flyer on that. 

Because the Russians are no longer the influence or because they want the D's to win this time?

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Just now, zork said:

Because the Russians are no longer the influence or because they want the D's to win this time?

Probably both. 

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Question for @Anastasis or anyone else with experience with PredictIt.  In a market for an event with one outcome or another, such as which party will control the House, why is there an option to buy "yes" and "no" for both outcomes? If I think the Dems will win, I can buy a Yes for Dems or a No for GOP, but those identical outcomes aren't priced the same.  What's that about?

Edited by Mack Tripper

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Not really sure man. Shares are sold in YES/NO pair, such that the sum of the yes and no prices should be $1 or very close for a given outcome.  I would assume that the difference between the Dem contract and the GOP contract reflects some market inefficiency. But it creates some arbitrage opportunities for people with bigger brains than mine. 

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I have a three team parlay of 

Cruz winning Senate seat (-180)

Gillum winning Florida Governor's race (-140)

Mother making Pence gargle Trump's balls during State of Union Address (-120)

 

Will have to wait a while for it to cash but I'm patient. 

 

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19 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

I put $300 on Cruz @ $.78. I figure that I'd gladly pay $300 for a Beto win or Cruz can buy me a nice dinner.

I like the emotional hedging strategy. 

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5 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Be quick to act if something unexpected happens.  I recall election night 2016, Hillary was the gambling favorite until it was becoming apparent she was losing too late in a few states.  The betting moved in very quickly that made Trump the overwhelming favorite.  It seemed to happen within minutes.   

This.

Paddy Power was very late to move the number on Brexit night as well. 

If you're really out of your mind, a three-team parlay of Heitkamp, Beto, and Breseden pays 87:1

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2 hours ago, Mack Tripper said:

I did that during Mack's long losing streak to OU. 

I bet Texas money line every year.  Either lose $500 happily or have a fun night out even as the damn loser.  I’m a fucking Sooner.  Apologies.   

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As someone who only occasionally gambles on sports, this seems remarkably shady to me.  Seems like a lot of potential for folks with inside info to profit without much recourse.

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7 hours ago, conVINCEd said:

As someone who only occasionally gambles on sports, this seems remarkably shady to me.  Seems like a lot of potential for folks with inside info to profit without much recourse.

It’s hard to think of things more shady than online betting on US politics.  However, the lines seem to be decent predictors.

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25 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

It’s hard to think of things more shady than online betting on US politics.  However, the lines seem to be decent predictors.

I’d say American politics are shadier.

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9 hours ago, conVINCEd said:

As someone who only occasionally gambles on sports, this seems remarkably shady to me.  Seems like a lot of potential for folks with inside info to profit without much recourse.

That is why it is illegal for American books to take action on the election. All the betting stuff you see is from offshore and European books. 

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I hit Manchin -400 and Dem House -220 last week.

Laying heavy chalk but I saw no value w dogs they listed.  My book didnt offer Beto  or I’d have hit that for a unit.    

 

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22 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Better play if you want that bet is to just go all in on Dem House and Dem Senate Congressional control @ 0.13. 

 

I took a flyer on this yesterday 

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1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

Volume starting to flow in now.

how so, or where is it flowing?

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I’m gonna bottle my liberal tears tonight when Beto loses, then sell it on eBay.   Use that cash to get some action on Trump 2020 

profit. 

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35 minutes ago, zork said:

how so, or where is it flowing?

This is the who controls house market. Volume is the bars. 

Capture.jpg

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More easy money: Texas Senate margin of victory: NO on 12+% 0.90

And throwing a small bone at 0-2 and 2-4. 

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lots of volume, but it doesn't seem to be much movement.   Both sides bets, but more because it is final time to get them in and near instant results?

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19 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

Ted Cruz reelected going up and Dem House/GOP senate going down makes NO sense to me.  Can someone explain? 

All the dem house markets are moving down.  

 

And predictit is only slowing filling orders right now. 

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Cashed out manchin. Rolling it in to dem house plays. Also reducing no Cruz position on bumps. Oh. And moving to bourbon. 

Edited by Anastasis

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11 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

Thoughts on betting that the Pubs keep the House? 538 keeps moving their odds. Now showing 46%.

Wouldn’t touch it, but I got a few thousand on the other side of that bet at this point so take it for nonsense. 

Edited by Anastasis

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Just now, Anastasis said:

Wouldn’t touch it, but I got a few thousand on the other side of that bet at this point. 

It isn't what I expected but that only play I am making here is to find the surprises and be the first to move. It would be a surprise. 538 still hovering around 45%. There's plenty of easy money if you are willing to leverage. 

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mpu


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