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Blotto

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Blotto

  1. Joe Milton just threw a pretty nice pass on that TD to Brooks. Didnt think he had that in him.
  2. There's still time to delete this. There may be a few people that haven't read it yet.
  3. That's fairly progressive for Kentucky.
  4. If shenanigans were a person
  5. That is laughably incorrect. Summers up there are badass.
  6. Can anyone suggest a podcast app that is worth a shit? I'm not a huge podcast person and have generally used spotify as I am a subscriber, but that app just sucks for podcasts. It doesnt seem possible to create a playlist with several podcasts that will automatically queue up the latest episodes when released. There has to be a better interface than what Spotify offers up.
  7. They may not like Texas, and they may look forward to that game, but no way in hell do I believe most OSU fans consider Texas a bigger rival than bedlam. I'm not really buying WVU, KU, or KSU either. thats some made up clickbait bullshit, which probably explains why the site sportsrivalry.com no longer exists.
  8. Brazil is different.
  9. that would be a tremendous gig for johnny football. Texas shaped manziel pies stamped with their dumbass slogans..."howdy", "gig em", "jizz jar". Make em into xmas ornaments.
  10. Yeah, there are some things to like about this roster, but the offensive potential of our guards seems shaky at best. Who is gonna step up and make the big outside shot when needed? Tre was obviously the guy last year, but I haven't seen a lot out of either Pope or Mark during their time here in Austin to make me think they are gonna turn into a lights out shooter. The SEC website stats site isnt loading conference only stats right now, but I seem to recall both Pope and Mark shooting around 33% from deep in conference play. As for breaking down a defense and kicking to the open man, our 3 returning guards combined for less than 5 assists per game. I didn't watch enough St John's ball to even notice Wilcher, but his 29% 3P/1.4Ast/1.4TO line from last year doesnt indicate that he will be the salvation for either concern. Of course, I also haven't seen Miller coach a game here yet, so we can only guess what kind of offense he wants to run.
  11. AMY died with its founder. Look at their linkedin page. Nobody works there. their press releases are a bunch of announcements of consultants they are hiring, a fluff announcement of some consortium with Lucid, and an announcement that their JV with Zenith chemical was unwound. Its dead comatose.....waiting for someone, anyone to revive it.
  12. Not this year. Here's the payout Now that the leader starts at even par, it makes it a bit harder to win as compared to the previous format. So I believe they shifted payments around. Scottie already won $10M for being the season long fedex up cup points leader, and picked up another $5M for leading the Fedex cup standings after the BMW.
  13. Playing for $10M next week, I believe. So that could be ~$56M. Add in another $30M in endorsements and its not hard to see Scheffler fucking around and ultimately becoming a billionaire.
  14. There's a bonus crash in this one about 15 seconds in.
  15. What an ass-whipping, and yeah, kind of a snoozer it was so dominant.
  16. Funding is not an issue as prediction markets are not illegal. I live in TX and you can use a credit card or link your bank account. The one caveat to all of this is that congresspeople from Nevada are trying to get a bill that makes it illegal for these prediction markets to offer contracts in sporting events, but that seems low priority at the moment and I think this season is probably safe. Next year who knows.
  17. MacIntrye's commitment to sunscreen is impressive. The dude spends every day out in the sun and still manages to be borderline transparent.
  18. It seems like its on an optimal path for a hurricane of this magnitude. No real population centers in danger, correct?
  19. The story of Gisele Bündchen's clam now that she's in her 40's
  20. You know she has a store on her website right? for that matter, you can buy all of it on amazon and probably have it dropped off on your doorstep by Saturday.
  21. Uncle Warren wants to make money. Berkshire has a long and extensive history in the insurance markets so he knows the financial levers. He may or may not agree with their business practices, but he clearly thinks they are undervalued.
  22. Heads up to anyone that wants to play futures that its worth checking the prediction markets in addition to sports books. For the most part in the US that means Kalshi, although Polymarket might start taking US customers soon. Kalshi will take credit cards, bank transfers etc, so its simple to get money in and out. There are several possible advantages of the prediction markets: 1.) you can usually find better odds than on sports books as they arent making juice the same way. 2.) each "bet" is a season long contract that remains open until resolution. This means you can sell you action at any point in the season (or game) or add more if the odds get better and you still like the end result. 3.) For every yes side, there is a no side, meaning you can explicitly bet that a team wont win the national title for example. the odds wont be great now, because nobody is a big favorite, but it can be a good hedging tool later in the season. You also may have more options on futures bets like win totals. To take Torn ACL's example of season wins, right now they have about 6 different win bets for every team (6.5, 8.5. 10.5 etc...) as well as bets for the exact number of wins etc... The way these markets works is that you buy contracts at any value between 1 and 99 cents. All contracts resolve to either $0 (no) or $1 (yes) at the end of the contract. So for instance if you buy 100 contracts at 10 cents, and that bet is successful, the payout is $100, so its the same thing as +900 odds. I created a few functions in excel to calculate ML odds to Pred market, payouts, etc... but its not rocket surgery. The other reason to consider the prediction markets is for in game betting. Here is an example of how much better the odds are on Kalshi for a random baseball game going on right now (philly vs wash): My sports book currently has: Philly -424, wash +297, Kalshi has it at Philly.78 (same as -354), wash .23(same as +334). So the odds are better on both sides of that bet. The bigger the underdog the more pronounced the payoff advantage will be on Kalshi. Its a great hedging tool. For specific game betting, they only offer winners (no spreads, or totals) but the odds are almost always better. And again, you can sell at anytime during the game. Right now the odds on college football games are a bit inflated because they are still weeks away, but usually at game time or during the games the total of yes bet + no bet will be around $1.01. Last week I bought Scheffler when he briefly dipped down to .10 in the golf tournament. When he later got above .50, I sold half my contracts meaning I made money, even though he didnt win the tournament If anyone wants to give it a shot, here's a referral code tied to my account. kalshi.com/sign-up/?referral=c6aa1d10-7826-47cc-ad3b-d827cb315c4a If you use that link, deposit money and buy 100 contracts of some event, we each get credited with $10. Not a lot, but it beats a kick in the dick.
  23. The average return of the S&P since its inception is now around 10%. I presume people concerned with managing 500M-1B probably employ a bit more sophisticated approach to managing a nest egg of that size.
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