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<cracking knuckles>
It's been a while since I did a speculative trade, but who feels like playing the VIX this week?
Here's the chart of the two weeks in 2011 surrounding the debt limit near-default

  • the Monday before the debt limit deal
  • the passage of the deal on 8/1/11
  • S&P Lowers the debt rating 8/5/11

image.thumb.png.fcb2887f2693b09aceeed85ccf43c331.png

 VIX is likely to open around $20 tomorrow. 

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That chart did not do what I thought it would do back in 2011. Common sense says the VIX slowly moves up this week with a larger move on Friday if nothing is done. Then next week it really goes crazy. But looking at the chart above, the real movement in the VIX came after the deal was done and our credit rating took a hit, not before.

What I want to know is which House members are shorting the market over the next 2 weeks. Do they have to disclose real time or like quarterly? 

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Just for the record as it's easy to forget after the fact, but wanted to point out that a week ago most of the headlines were pretty middle of the road that a deal would get done. The past few days they've turned extremely negative... not necessarily saying there won't be a deal, but really amping up the FUD. Seems like it was overnight.

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2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

<cracking knuckles>
It's been a while since I did a speculative trade, but who feels like playing the VIX this week?
Here's the chart of the two weeks in 2011 surrounding the debt limit near-default

  • the Monday before the debt limit deal
  • the passage of the deal on 8/1/11
  • S&P Lowers the debt rating 8/5/11

image.thumb.png.fcb2887f2693b09aceeed85ccf43c331.png

 VIX is likely to open around $20 tomorrow. 

ill wait for the pop and short the vix complex back down

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, UTGrad98 said:

That chart did not do what I thought it would do back in 2011. Common sense says the VIX slowly moves up this week with a larger move on Friday if nothing is done. Then next week it really goes crazy. But looking at the chart above, the real movement in the VIX came after the deal was done and our credit rating took a hit, not before.

What I want to know is which House members are shorting the market over the next 2 weeks. Do they have to disclose real time or like quarterly? 

Two things-

1) it went up by quite a bit from the 27-31st. Certainly enough to cover the premium on a call option and make a bit. And depending on the specifics, we could see a downgrade like last time, too.

2) at that time, a large majority of the house majority and the speaker viewed a default as an unacceptable outcome and a deal was expected. This time it seems very likely that the majority of the house majority is willing to accept a default and the speaker does not have the strength or political will to push a bill through.

11 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

ill wait for the pop and short the vix complex back down

A naked short on the VIX? There be dragons, Godspeed.

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

A naked short on the VIX? There be dragons.

actually rarely on VIX (options) itself, but almost always shorting uvxy calls which benefits from extra drag loss.  then trading around vix futures, but most often short.  more reliable than any of my other discretionary trades

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VIX term structure has boring ole contango.  nothing drastic to indicate that people expect a sharp equities move spiked by debt ceiling.  (Theres a VIX for Treasuries called MOVE but its not a traded product and has no futures)

If anything to play im kinda tempted to buy some put spreads on NVDA

 

vix-futures-term-structu.png

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23 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

<cracking knuckles>
It's been a while since I did a speculative trade, but who feels like playing the VIX this week?
Here's the chart of the two weeks in 2011 surrounding the debt limit near-default

  • the Monday before the debt limit deal
  • the passage of the deal on 8/1/11
  • S&P Lowers the debt rating 8/5/11

image.thumb.png.fcb2887f2693b09aceeed85ccf43c331.png

 VIX is likely to open around $20 tomorrow. 

Yeah VIX has seemed absurdly low of late with the circus you know is going to erupt in DC. I'll probably take a similar approach as that "50 cent trader" except pull in the time frame and buy at $.20. Find the call option about a week out selling for ~$.20 and buy those (5/31 $25C at .22, for example). Roll, rinse and repeat, probably losing my ass each week on that trade until the VIX spikes above 30, which it last did a couple of months ago. Of course, to make money that way, I'm relying on the dipshits in Congress to hit maximum idiocy, and then push further.....I like my chances. 

Edited by Blotto
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1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

So is the market saying these idiots might actually not get a budget/debt limit deal made by the time limit???
are they/we that stupid or do they think it won't really be that bad to default - not trying to CR, but quit fucking the chicken and do something

 

The dip-shittery in DC will take this up to the 23rd hour and 59th second. This "showdown" is exactly the kind of political theatre DC thrives on. The presumptive leader of the GOP is on record urging republicans to allow default unless they get "everything they want". Think about that....that gives a lot of political cover to those who have sworn fealty to Trump.

Probably only a few of these morons are actually willing to torch the economy for their "cause." Enough of Congress will realize the fucking stupidity of a default, and they will scramble to pass some bullshit 30-60 day temporary measure so their own investments aren't proper fucked. And then we can deal with this circus all summer long. But between now and whatever temporary measure they can agree on, I'm betting it gets messier. They want it that way.

As I mentioned above, VIX seems way too fucking low right now considering the fireworks that could erupt soon. I picked up a pretty good chunk of 5/31 $25 VIX calls  yesterday for $0.22. My hope is that I'll be able to sell half of those tomorrow for a decent profit and free ride the rest into next week or roll them out if need be. I've also collected a nice assortment of June/July puts on stocks that have been ripping higher for no meaningful reasons lately. If VIX spikes, the premiums on those should rise even if the underlying stays relatively flat.

 Maybe this is all a nothing burger, the two parties will come to a rapid agreement on the debt ceiling, and I'll take some losses. But nothing about the political climate in this country makes me believe that is a likely outcome. Chicken fucking is what these people do best. 

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4 hours ago, Blotto said:

The dip-shittery in DC will take this up to the 23rd hour and 59th second. This "showdown" is exactly the kind of political theatre DC thrives on. The presumptive leader of the GOP is on record urging republicans to allow default unless they get "everything they want". Think about that....that gives a lot of political cover to those who have sworn fealty to Trump.

Probably only a few of these morons are actually willing to torch the economy for their "cause." Enough of Congress will realize the fucking stupidity of a default, and they will scramble to pass some bullshit 30-60 day temporary measure so their own investments aren't proper fucked. And then we can deal with this circus all summer long. But between now and whatever temporary measure they can agree on, I'm betting it gets messier. They want it that way.

As I mentioned above, VIX seems way too fucking low right now considering the fireworks that could erupt soon. I picked up a pretty good chunk of 5/31 $25 VIX calls  yesterday for $0.22. My hope is that I'll be able to sell half of those tomorrow for a decent profit and free ride the rest into next week or roll them out if need be. I've also collected a nice assortment of June/July puts on stocks that have been ripping higher for no meaningful reasons lately. If VIX spikes, the premiums on those should rise even if the underlying stays relatively flat.

 Maybe this is all a nothing burger, the two parties will come to a rapid agreement on the debt ceiling, and I'll take some losses. But nothing about the political climate in this country makes me believe that is a likely outcome. Chicken fucking is what these people do best. 

Could work, have only had 5 back to back red days since March, but in hindsight for you, I would have bought more time in Vix. . In 2011, we sold off after the deal was announced. Could be a sell the news event as Treasury adds $1 trillion in t bill sales immediately after passage. But could be completely different as well, one headline and you could be golden. 

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49 minutes ago, Lobwedgephil said:

Could work, have only had 5 back to back red days since March, but in hindsight for you, I would have bought more time in Vix. . In 2011, we sold off after the deal was announced. Could be a sell the news event as Treasury adds $1 trillion in t bill sales immediately after passage. But could be completely different as well, one headline and you could be golden. 

So basically, nobody knows shit about fuck. Happy trading.

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I think I can solve the US default economic and market crisis; all I'd have to do is sell my stocks, ETF's, and stonks, close out any options and put it all into cash/money market.
Presto/Chango - Wally is 100% out of the market and sitting in cash; and miraculously the default negotiations will find a break thru and have bi-partisan support, the markets will rejoice and I will watch it all from the sideline. 

So I guess the real question is - y'all trust me to sacrifice for the greater good?

Or maybe I should call Neel Kashkari to see what he thinks of my plan. Anyone have his cell #?

Edited by Wally Fairway
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3 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

I think I can solve the US default economic and market crisis; all I'd have to do is sell my stocks, ETF's, and stonks, close out any options and put it all into cash/money market.
Presto/Chango - Wally is 100% out of the market and sitting in cash; and miraculously the default negotiations will find a break thru and have bi-partisan support, the markets will rejoice and I will watch it all from the sideline. 

So I guess the real question is - y'all trust me to sacrifice for the greater good?

Or maybe I should call Neel Kashkari to see what he thinks of my plan. Anyone have his cell #?

Maybe the Fed will print $1tn, buy all the VIX options in the open market, encourage congress to default sending the VIX to 60, then pay out the entire national debt by closing out the vix calls.    

 

 

3 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

I think I can solve the US default economic and market crisis; all I'd have to do is sell my stocks, ETF's, and stonks, close out any options and put it all into cash/money market.
Presto/Chango - Wally is 100% out of the market and sitting in cash; and miraculously the default negotiations will find a break thru and have bi-partisan support, the markets will rejoice and I will watch it all from the sideline. 

So I guess the real question is - y'all trust me to sacrifice for the greater good?

Or maybe I should call Neel Kashkari to see what he thinks of my plan. Anyone have his cell #?

giphy-downsized-large.gif

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7 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Maybe the Fed will print $1tn, buy all the VIX options in the open market, encourage congress to default sending the VIX to 60, then pay out the entire national debt by closing out the vix calls.    

 

 

giphy-downsized-large.gif

Damn - i need to give you  FAFO rep and Hook'em
I like LBJ taking notes in the background - reminds me of the Mark Cuban gif)

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On 5/18/2023 at 7:18 PM, Blotto said:

A stock with an $800B market cap usually doesn't sport a ttm P/E of 180. Look at their recent earnings reports and take note of the revenue and net income trends

 
May-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
May-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Revenues ($B) $5,661 $6,507 $7,103 $7,643 $8,288 $6,704 $5,931 $6,051
Net income ($B) $1,912 $2,374 $2,464 $3,003 $1,618 $656 $680 $1,414

They can keep saying AI on every earnings call, but eventually the revenue/earnings need to keep pace with the NVDA stock price. If I had to guess, this one will fall back down to that $200 range sometime this year. But I hesitate to put my money where my mouth is because this stock has taken TSLA's place as the most ridiculously overvalued stock in the market. Cant buy it out of principle, wont short it out of fear, lulz. For all I know, the damn AI servers are the ones driving the fucking stock price bonkers in a perverted feedback loop. 

Their earnings call will be interesting next week. NVDA is up 50% in the 3 months since their last earnings call in a flat market. The stock is priced for mf'n perfection......fuck, now just typing this out, I'm gonna talk myself into some deeeeeeeep OTM puts as a lotto ticket. Looks like June 16 $250p's  are ~$1.20. That one month time window encompasses both their earnings call and a likely timeframe for Congress to fuck up the debt ceiling issue. 

Temptation GIFs | Tenor

 

NVDA up 19% AH following bigtime guidance.  

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3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

NVDA up 19% AH following bigtime guidance.  

Holy shit, that's insane. I'm not sure which is crazier, the fact that they forecast their Q2 revenue to spike so much, the fact that they will now have a~ $1 T market cap with a PE well north of 100, or their decision to declare a $.04 dividend when the price is close to $300. I actually bought those June 250P last Friday, and then got talked out of it on Monday by  a buddy that trades that stock a lot. He gave me a host of reasons why it was a bad idea, so I sold my options up a bit and bought NVDS instead (inverse NVDA ETF). I'm guessing I'll be down around 30% after it all settles down tomorrow, but at least there's no expiration date. I'm not sure if I'll cut my losses or try and sell calls against the ETF. My bigger concern is NVDA drags the entire market up tomorrow and fucks with my VIX calls, lulz. 

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On 5/22/2023 at 3:04 PM, 52-80 said:

If anything to play im kinda tempted to buy some put spreads on NVDA

 

9 hours ago, Blotto said:

Holy shit, that's insane. I'm not sure which is crazier, the fact that they forecast their Q2 revenue to spike so much, the fact that they will now have a~ $1 T market cap with a PE well north of 100, or their decision to declare a $.04 dividend when the price is close to $300. I actually bought those June 250P last Friday, and then got talked out of it on Monday by  a buddy that trades that stock a lot. He gave me a host of reasons why it was a bad idea, so I sold my options up a bit and bought NVDS instead (inverse NVDA ETF). I'm guessing I'll be down around 30% after it all settles down tomorrow, but at least there's no expiration date. I'm not sure if I'll cut my losses or try and sell calls against the ETF. My bigger concern is NVDA drags the entire market up tomorrow and fucks with my VIX calls, lulz. 

I went long the 300/250P spread for 13.10 debit.  Was up a good 20% until that after hours move.... so it'll be worth fuck all now.  Have 2 months until expiration. 

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Do you ever really look at what you own in your investment accounts, especially if it is primarily in ETF's, mutual funds and such?

I have done this in the past, and tend to look if I go into a new fund (usually when I start a new job and need to make 401k elections; but yesterdays action in NVDA go me to thinking I hadn't do the exercise in quite a while. Back in my younger days I would put 50-75% of my investments in mutual funds, and the pick 5-10 stock to invest the remainder; I owned NVDA years ago and it was not INTC, AMD or Micron so I sold it. It was long enough ago that I'm not sure if it was 15 or 20 years ago. 
Anyway I thought I'd see how much I owned indirectly through funds - and it turns out, that NVDA is almost 3% of my portfolio; maybe 4% after yesterday.

Just another fishing story about the one that got away
 

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41 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Do you ever really look at what you own in your investment accounts, especially if it is primarily in ETF's, mutual funds and such?

Actually never. It's sort of the whole reason I put a portion in funds, I don't want to know what it's doing, what it holds, what the value is. I check back maybe twice a year just to see total account value. I rebalance if it's out of balance. And then I forget it exists.

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