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2022 House elections


Gil Bang
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Posted (edited)

House still looking bad.  We really needed that New York and Maryland gerrymander to go thru to counter act both Desantis and his strong arm bullshit in Florida and the racist bullshit going on in Louisiana and Alabama where additional African American seats were not granted.

fucking dicks.

can’t wait until mayra Flores is gone. I hate her already.

Edited by Voldemort86
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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Why is Nebraska 02 a toss up?  That’s a big change.

NE-02 has a PVI of R+1,  Dems overperformed NE-01 by 4 points (5.4 margin is an R+9 district).  NE-02 is urban (Omaha) and Biden won it. 

Could move back depending on the environment the next 3 months and how Dems do in the next 3 special elections. 

Edited by Js1
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Posted (edited)

I like the 538 dashboard view as a frequent check-in on the status: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/

Some point to Silver as inaccurate poll but 538 is only an aggregation of other polls that are weighted based on their previous accuracy.

Quote
  • Things do not look good for Democrats in the House. Even if Democrats were to win all the races currently designated as toss-ups, plus hold on to all the seats they’re favored to win, they would still wind up short of the number they need for a majority.
  • That said, following the Supreme Court's decision overturning Roe v. Wade, polls for the race for Congress have inched toward Democrats. The question now is whether that shift will last or if these polls shift back toward Republicans, as historically speaking, the party not in the White House has led.

His analysis is that today the GOP has a 80% chance of taking the House. That has dropped from 87% a month ago.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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8 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Why is Nebraska 02 a toss up?  That’s a big change.

 

8 hours ago, Js1 said:

NE-02 has a PVI of R+1,  Dems overperformed NE-01 by 4 points (5.4 margin is an R+9 district).  NE-02 is urban (Omaha) and Biden won it. 

Could move back depending on the environment the next 3 months and how Dems do in the next 3 special elections. 

 

Very cool.  I like Tony Vargas quite a bit.  He is a young, Latino state senator representing South Omaha - which has a large Latino and other immigrant population.  He looks good in a suit, which shouldn't matter, but does.  His father died of Covid and Tony led a passionate fight to get better protections for meat packing workers, netting him a little national press. He's a lawyer, but I'm not sure how aggressive he would be in a debate.  

Four years ago Kara Eastman came within 2 points of Bacon in the midterm.  That got a lot of people excited for a general election matchup.  In 2020, the district went to Biden, but Kara came more like 5 points short.  My best guess is that the racial justice protests, subsequent police violence, and the fallout from the killing of James Scurlock hurt Kara.  Or maybe her commercials weren't that good.  Who knows. 

This time around, there isn't that same dynamic.  Probably a bigger deal is that Bacon has broken with Trump...in the half ass pussy way he does everything, saying he wouldn't support Trump in a hypothetical 2024 primary. 

Also, there is a bit of civil unrest in the NEGOP.  It was a nasty primary for the new governor candidate.  The most pro-Trump shitstain candidate was accused of groping several women, including Julie Slama, a current Republican state senator.  Slama was appointed by the current governor, Pete Ricketts [...fucking sucks], and is very tight with him, so it was seen as a political hit piece.  Additionally several Republicans had their credentials pulled from the state convention because they publicly spoke ill of Ricketts [...fucking sucks].   

So, yeah, in a midterm election without Trump on the ballot, it is certainly possible that pro-Trump Republicans won't show up to vote for Bacon, or for Ricketts' [...fucking sucks] hand picked governor candidate.  

The bad news is that in 2020 the district was gerrymandered.  It basically took it back to the R/D percentages it was 2010.  In 2010, when they gerrymandered it, they removed significant portions of South Omaha, and I think they may have sliced off a little more this time around.  

Oh, and Pete Ricketts Fucking Sucks. 

As far as NE-1 in the special, keep in mind it was a special election because the incumbent stepped down after facing federal charges.  (Lying to FBI on foreign campaign contributions.) So, the dynamic on that one may have been a bit weird as well.  

 

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Will be very interesting to see how this trends. Under the current map, the point at which you’d start expecting D’s to win the House is about a D +2 national popular vote. You’d probably start feeling reasonably confident of that outcome at a D +4 generic ballot. There’s time to get there, at this rate.

It’s possible the Dobbs bounce fades or the economy takes a more significant downturn. It’s also possible that we get to November and Democrats can point to this coming reconciliation bill, the gun bill, continued job growth, slowing inflation, Dobbs and its fallout, the infrastructure and chip bills, and MAGA crazies put forth by the GOP, in totality and make a much better case that they can govern while their opponents are unfit than anyone expected just a few months ago.
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Tonight, Indiana just passed some laws effectively banning abortions. The gop doesn’t really believe abortion is going to play into the elections. It probably won’t matter for Indiana but other states and political races should point to them as an example.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, gmr548 said:


Will be very interesting to see how this trends. Under the current map, the point at which you’d start expecting D’s to win the House is about a D +2 national popular vote. You’d probably start feeling reasonably confident of that outcome at a D +4 generic ballot. There’s time to get there, at this rate.

It’s possible the Dobbs bounce fades or the economy takes a more significant downturn. It’s also possible that we get to November and Democrats can point to this coming reconciliation bill, the gun bill, continued job growth, slowing inflation, Dobbs and its fallout, the infrastructure and chip bills, and MAGA crazies put forth by the GOP, in totality and make a much better case that they can govern while their opponents are unfit than anyone expected just a few months ago.

2 more rounds of economic data to get thru before the election? Jobs report crushed it. Should probably send idiot GOP folks back into their holes for a few weeks.

Edited by Voldemort86
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Tonight, Indiana just passed some laws effectively banning abortions. The gop doesn’t really believe abortion is going to play into the elections. It probably won’t matter for Indiana but other states and political races should point to them as an example.

Yep. If republicans were smart, they would back off of any new abortion regs until after the midterms.
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8 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

2 more rounds of economic data to get thru before the election? Jobs report crushed it. Should probably send idiot GOP folks back into their holes for a few weeks.

They will claim that it doesn’t count number of people who aren’t looking or some dumb shit to change the subject 

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59 minutes ago, Dr. Teeth said:

Gas and food prices matter more than jobs report. The issue is whether people see them coming down or just stay upset they were once high. 

Anyone whose not a moron knows that gas prices spiked because of Russia’s war. Isn’t that obvious?  Why should people blame the president for that?

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Dr. Teeth said:

Gas and food prices matter more than jobs report. The issue is whether people see them coming down or just stay upset they were once high. 

We came through West Texas a few days ago, where it wasn’t hard to see an oil well every few miles and gas prices in quite a few towns were 50-60 cents a gallon more than the liberal wasteland of Austin.  I found it amusing (I’m aware of why gas prices there are more than they are here). 

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Posted (edited)

Jamie Herrera Beutler is officially dead.  She was overtaken for 2nd place with the most recent ballot dump last night and will miss the general election ballot. 

Dan Newhouse and David Valadao are the two impeachment Republicans left for November, out of the 10* - Valadao is not that favored in November (D+5 district and the most Democratic-PVI district to be held by a Republican), so Newhouse might be the only one left alive.

Newhouse survived his primary with 25.5% of the vote, as four other GOP candidates took 21.3, 12.2 and 10.5% of the vote and he was able to move on to November. 

 

*Because Cheney is going to lose, bigly

Edited by Js1
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Special election to replace the late Jim Hagedorn down in the 1st today. The drama to replace him has been thick.

This district has gotten really Trumpy in the last 8 years. It's very different than when Tim Walz won it in 2006. Yes, that Tim Walz, who will be cruising to a second term as governor. I'm not sure how much to read into this election, other than a Republican winning a R+10 district by less than 10.

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2 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Special election to replace the late Jim Hagedorn down in the 1st today. The drama to replace him has been thick.

This district has gotten really Trumpy in the last 8 years. It's very different than when Tim Walz won it in 2006. Yes, that Tim Walz, who will be cruising to a second term as governor. I'm not sure how much to read into this election, other than a Republican winning a R+10 district by less than 10.

MN-01 in 2018 (Dem wave year) - R wins 50.1-49.7 with mixed bag for statewide races: Walz won 50-47 and Klobuchar won 54-42, while Ellison lost 42-52 and Tina Smith lost 46-49
MN-01 in 2020 (presidential turnout) - R wins 48.6-45.5 (Legalize Cannabis party took 5.8) while Trump won 54-44

PVI of R+8

Anything less than an 8-10 point win won't give much confidence of a red wave.

Only 2 polls were done so far - 48-47 R and 46-38 R.  

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On the mention of a red wave, that is going to come down to perception.

The GOP has a strong chance of taking the House but it doesn't look like they will have a margin that would traditionally be considered a wave. If anything the wave appears to be receding a bit if trends are accurate.

Now if the GOP takes the House by as little as 1 seat, they will declare it a wave and a victory to stop the communist policies of Biden.

 

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Posted (edited)

Dobbs decision leading to Dem enthusiasm for midterms

Inflation slowing in July

IRA, CHIPS passed

Dems overperform 2 specials months before midterms 

Kansas destroys abortion ban vote

 

Its a Hot Joe Summer

Edited by Js1
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Dobbs decision leading to Dem enthusiasm for midterms
Inflation slowing in July
IRA, CHIPS passed
Dems overperform 2 specials months before midterms 
Kansas destroys abortion ban vote
 
Its a Hot Joe Summer

I’ll be interested to see how the inflation number is received. 8.5% YOY is slowing, but still quite high. Of course, there’s always a disproportionate focus on gas prices, which are dropping quickly.
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34 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Noticed that Ilhan Omar only won her primary by 2%. She’ll easily win the general but obviously she’s not too popular in her district with her continued scandals. 

Is it that or did some pacs campaign heavily for her opponent?

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4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Is it that or did some pacs campaign heavily for her opponent?

She didn’t even go on TV, apparently. Just a poor showing with minimal effort. Maybe it scares her for 2024 primaries 

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Just now, Js1 said:

She didn’t even go on TV, apparently. Just a poor showing with minimal effort. Maybe it scares her for 2024 primaries 

And I was just guessing on my pac comment but apparently AIPAC funded her opponent bigly.

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Dems overperform NE-01 (R+11) and lose by 5.4 (Dem candidate got 47.3%, which was 6 points higher than Biden's total)
Dems overperform MN-01 (R+8) and lose by 4.1* (Dem candidate got 46.7%, which was 3 points higher than Biden's total) 

A roughly 4.75 point swing on average.  Kind of points to a D+3/4 environment, which is enough to hold the House.  I think the baseline is Dem+1/2 could do it, based on the new maps.  Also that Dems are not being dragged down by Biden's approval and getting a higher vote share than him in these GOP districts, without Donald Trump to juice turnout.  

Coming up for more trend lines:

NY-19 (2 weeks) is R+3, so extremely winnable
AK-AL (1 week) is R+9, but has ranked choice voting.  Polling shows if Palin beats out Begich for that 2nd spot, the Dem has a real shot at that seat.  Most recent polling was Pelota (D) 41%, Begich III (R) 30%, Palin 29%.  In a Pelota/Begich race, it's 55-45 R.  In a Pelota/Palin race, it's 51-49 D. 

 

*The new lines for MN-01 are also better for Dems than the old lines, by 1 or 2 points, so it's also winnable in November

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44 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


I’ll be interested to see how the inflation number is received. 8.5% YOY is slowing, but still quite high. Of course, there’s always a disproportionate focus on gas prices, which are dropping quickly.

The bottom line is that prices are higher than when Biden and the Ds took over.

Average voter doesn't look at the inflation numbers - only that prices are higher (especially gas). 

But to your point if gas prices keep dropping then people get the impression that things are improving. 

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Dobbs decision leading to Dem enthusiasm for midterms

Inflation slowing in July

IRA, CHIPS passed

Dems overperform 2 specials months before midterms 

Kansas destroys abortion ban vote

 

Its a Hot Joe Summer

Add in the J6 hearings and Trump's mounting legal troubles too.

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32 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

2010 was R+6.8, 2014 was R+5.8, 2016 was R+1.1, 2018 was D+6 and 2020 was D+3.1

So something between D+3.1 and R+1.1 - ain't no red wave. 

That more or less tracks with my read of the room. The average American is still sick of the GOP's theatrics and bullshit, but isn't exactly enamored with the Dems.

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37 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

2010 was R+6.8, 2014 was R+5.8, 2016 was R+1.1, 2018 was D+6 and 2020 was D+3.1

So something between D+3.1 and R+1.1 - ain't no red wave. 

I remember 2010 and 2014.  2010 was the official “Obama hang over” election where democrats were still celebrating their historic win from 2008 and republicans are pissed off and showing up in droves as a huge backlash to 2008 and worried about the parties long term future.

2014 it seemed like nobody cared about voting except for the R zombies who go to the polls no matter what. Both elections seemingly couldn’t get a millennial democrat to show up to vote at all.

This election feels different than those. I do think the Supreme Court ruling will be the dems version of the “ Kavanaugh effect”. How much can we limit the damage? I have no idea, but it does seem like Biden and the dems are on a roll right now and the GOP better watch out.

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Just now, Voldemort86 said:

I remember 2010 and 2014.  2010 was the official “Obama hang over” election where democrats were still celebrating their historic win from 2008 and republicans are pissed off and showing up in droves as a huge backlash to 2008 and worried about the parties long term future.

2014 it seemed like nobody cared about voting except for the R zombies who go to the polls no matter what. Both elections seemingly couldn’t get a millennial democrat to show up to vote at all.

This election feels different than those. I do think the Supreme Court ruling will be the dems version of the “ Kavanaugh effect”. How much can we limit the damage? I have no idea, but it does seem like Biden and the dems are on a roll right now and the GOP better watch out.

Millennials are old enough now to realize this shit actually affects them.

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9 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

That more or less tracks with my read of the room. The average American is still sick of the GOP's theatrics and bullshit, but isn't exactly enamored with the Dems.

The GOP is running a terrible midterm campaign.  Voters want to hear what you have to offer and all the GOPcis doing is pointing at the dems and blaming them for everyone’s problems. 
 

do you guys think the FBI raiding Mar-a-lago could help the GOP in 2022?  I think it helps Trump in 2024 for sure. All of the MAGA zealots are lining up behind him like he’s still president.

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1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

The GOP is running a terrible midterm campaign.  Voters want to hear what you have to offer and all the GOPcis doing is pointing at the dems and blaming them for everyone’s problems. 

The John Kerry strategy.

1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

do you guys think the FBI raiding Mar-a-lago could help the GOP in 2022?  I think it helps Trump in 2024 for sure. All of the MAGA zealots are lining up behind him like he’s still president.

They were going to do that regardless. They spent 40 years building a propaganda machine that constantly agitates their base. You ever notice how whenever the well runs dry they find out about a "caravan" and fall back to "border border border" programming? It's literally a flowchart at this point.

The point is that they will always find something to be riled up about. There isn't a MAGA zealot who wasn't already going to go to the polls, so the raid doesn't change anything.

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26 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

The GOP is running a terrible midterm campaign.  Voters want to hear what you have to offer and all the GOPcis doing is pointing at the dems and blaming them for everyone’s problems. 

While also voting against everything the Democrats are passing to solve them. 

This reeks of the "do nothing Republicans" from the Truman days.

27 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

do you guys think the FBI raiding Mar-a-lago could help the GOP in 2022?  I think it helps Trump in 2024 for sure. All of the MAGA zealots are lining up behind him like he’s still president.

Nope. They aren't exactly turning out in droves to protest this. There were more press outside Mar-a-lago then there were MAGA folks after the search warrant was executed. They aren't leaving the comfort of their keyboards to get hauled off to jail.

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Just now, Voldemort86 said:

 

Can it snap back? Yes.

Can it get better for Dems? Absolutely. 

3 months is a lifetime.  If gas prices continue to go down and inflation sees another month or two of decreases, things aren't suddenly going to get better for the GOP.

 

At the moment, this reads like a neutral to D+1 environment.  This is a nightmare for the GOP - they may retake the House, by a slim ass margin, and still lose seats in the Senate (WI, NC, PA). 

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Can it snap back? Yes.
Can it get better for Dems? Absolutely. 
3 months is a lifetime.  If gas prices continue to go down and inflation sees another month or two of decreases, things aren't suddenly going to get better for the GOP.
 
At the moment, this reads like a neutral to D+1 environment.  This is a nightmare for the GOP - they may retake the House, by a slim ass margin, and still lose seats in the Senate (WI, NC, PA). 

Democrats have to be kicking themselves for underwhelming in at the House level in 2020. Even a handful of additional seats to cushion the majority would have them feeling much better right now.
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Just now, gmr548 said:


Democrats have to be kicking themselves for underwhelming in at the House level in 2020. Even a handful of additional seats to cushion the majority would have them feeling much better right now.

Yeah, it was every truly toss-up seat went to the Republicans.  A lot of really close ones that benefitted from Trump juicing turnout.  GOP won 8 seats by 1.3% or less. 

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6 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

The GOP is running a terrible midterm campaign.  Voters want to hear what you have to offer and all the GOPcis doing is pointing at the dems and blaming them for everyone’s problems. 
 

do you guys think the FBI raiding Mar-a-lago could help the GOP in 2022?  I think it helps Trump in 2024 for sure. All of the MAGA zealots are lining up behind him like he’s still president.

Trump being at the center of the conversation is great for Democrats.  It increases Democratic turnout and reminds Independents what they hate about the GQP and why they can't be voted back into power.

It's really a bizarre dynamic that we've never had.  Usually, the former president has the good sense to go into quiet retirement and build houses for the homeless or paint portraits or some such.  So you can't run against the former president, and nobody in the party that is out of power has a high enough profile to run a national campaign against.  So it's always a referendum on the president, and nobody is ever happy with the president after his first two years.  

But Trump didn't retire.  He's out there making himself the center of attention (and when he's not making himself the center of attention, the January 6 Committee and the DOJ are doing it).  So it's not really a referendum on Biden.  There's actually a choice in this election.  So it has much more of a feel of a presidential year than a normal midterm would.

And then you have the Supreme Court.  Usually when the president's party loses in the midterms, it's because he pursued unpopular policies (either successfully as in the case of the ACA or unsuccessfully as in the case of Clinton's healthcare reform mess).  But now that we live under the Dictatorship of the Judges, the biggest imposer of policies is the Supreme Court.  And there's no question who controls the Supreme Court.  So one should fully expect the GQP to be punished for the policy decisions imposed by SCOTUS.

For his part, Biden has pursued (and achieved) largely popular policies.  The biggest complaint was that he didn't actually pass anything, but that has been addressed over the past month.  All of a sudden, Democratic voters are really energized by everything Dark Brandon has accomplished, and Independents generally support those policies.

And, here's the thing--the Republicans aren't really attacking Biden for those policies.  Bringing it back around to the beginning of this post, they're too busy trying to defend Trump to argue about the Inflation Reduction Act or the CHIPS Act or anything else.  A vote for the GQP really is a vote for Donald Trump.  And the fact remains that, just like in 2020, Donald Trump isn't very popular.

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