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The Business of Hollywood & Streaming


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I get the fears of actors and others about AI but I don’t see them stopping technology nor do I see them receiving much pay from it. Sure if someone says write me a script as if Person A wrote it, then Person A should receive some comp for that. That make sense. But if AI just writes a generic script that is derived from countless writers, how is that any different today when a TV show today rehashes the same themes from a writer from the 90s who stole it from someone 15 years previously?

if actors or writers just ask for more current pay, they can end a strike soon. If they want protection from AI or want more writers in the room, their strike will drag on. Then they will eventually cave. Maybe they can get a concession regarding studios agreeing to no AI-only projects. 

im sympathetic to the strikers but the studios could very well be making more profits with the strike and simultaneously resetting how they do business.

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11 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I get the fears of actors and others about AI but I don’t see them stopping technology nor do I see them receiving much pay from it. Sure if someone says write me a script as if Person A wrote it, then Person A should receive some comp for that. That make sense. But if AI just writes a generic script that is derived from countless writers, how is that any different today when a TV show today rehashes the same themes from a writer from the 90s who stole it from someone 15 years previously?

if actors or writers just ask for more current pay, they can end a strike soon. If they want protection from AI or want more writers in the room, their strike will drag on. Then they will eventually cave. Maybe they can get a concession regarding studios agreeing to no AI-only projects. 

im sympathetic to the strikers but the studios could very well be making more profits with the strike and simultaneously resetting how they do business.

Did you read the op ed?  It addresses what you are saying.

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On 7/28/2023 at 7:45 AM, Captain Ron said:

He really nails the argument here.

I understand and can agree somewhat, that AI produced data that trained on an actors performance or writers script, should result in compensation.

As he writes in his op/ed, it would be a daunting challenge to require AI to document its source material and attribute usage in creating new material. Maybe impossible. And doesn’t this open up non-AI work to this? I write a movie that has a character that is similar to a character from a movie that I saw. Would the original writer be owed residuals? And what if he had derived his work from the works of a few other writers?

before they take this up with studios, I would think that new copyright law needs to be written first in which the original artist has rights (compensation and even rejection) if their art is used in AI.

I see this more of a problem for other creative industries than tv or film. With zero music knowledge, I could create new songs that sound like they came from whatever music artist. Here are a 1,000 new Taylor swift songs that my AI created this morning but I just won’t use her name.

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David Zaslav, the dim bulb of a man responsible for folding the Discovery Network into HBO and then rebranding the entire mess as MAX ... and for some reason thinking that would help boost the number of viewers, is in the finding out stage of his fuckery. https://www.techradar.com/streaming/hbo-max/maxs-confusing-launch-saw-warner-bros-lose-nearly-two-million-subscribers

image.thumb.png.3023ac33c333cf7da3678908c9bde41d.png
 

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Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) has revealed it lost almost two million subscribers in the period running to June 2023.

Per its Q2 2023 earnings report, the entertainment giant confirmed its total streaming service userbase – comprising HBO, Discovery Plus, and Max, the super streamer that replaced HBO Max in late May – shed 1.8 million users between April 1 and June 30. Previously, WBD's total direct-to-consumer (DTC) user base had stood at 97.6 million. Thanks to the mixed reception Max's launch was met with, however, it's suffered a downturn in those figures, with its most recent customer base equalling 95.8 million.

 

 

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The studios finally (FINALLY!!) reached out to resume talks with the writers, scheduled for tomorrow. It's *not* a negotiation meeting, but rather a meeting to discuss coming back to the table. 

I was pretty shocked they reached out to us before the actors, as their strategy is always "cut deals with the other two and box in the writers," but it turns out Fran has really, really, REALLY pissed them off with her rhetoric lol. It's a good reminder that these men -- no matter how rich and powerful they may be -- have incredibly thin skin. They're all to rarely (if ever?) challenged, talked down to, or publicly mocked / ridiculed -- and they fucking hate it. FAAFO, etc.

It's a reason to be cautiously optimistic, with heavy emphasis on the caution. It's my understanding this was part of the playbook in '07/'08  -- "resume talks" that were never intended to actually be in good faith, force the WGA's hand to decline unserious counters, then run to the press and scream "THE WRITERS ARE BEING UNREASONABLE!!!!!" 

But if they think they can wait us out or get us to cave/take a weak deal, they've got another thing coming. I hear absolutely no signs of fatigue from fellow writers. If anything, we've only become more resolved and unified, especially with the jolt of the actors now marching alongside us. 

Whatever happens tomorrow, good or bad, I'll be back on the lines first thing Monday morning.

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3 hours ago, WBT said:

Were they previously double counting people that had discovery plus and hbo max?

During the phone call with analysts today the CFO said there were some overlapping subscribers and a lot of people who canceled after watching Last of Us. But the issue of overlapping subscribers just raises another question about their prediction of an increase to 100 million global subscribers. They cut content and raised prices and somehow want investors to believe that makes the company more competitive in the streaming category. Keep in mind these are the same execs who are so happy about the strike that they're talking up how much more profitable the company is now that they don't have to pay anyone to produce, write and act in new scripted content.

Also most subscribers probably haven't had a chance to react to sticker shock yet when they see what this years subscription price is (starting at $16/mo or $150/yr -- unless you want ads, $50 more per year if you want 4k.) My hbo streaming plan went from $105 to $150 but the year's subscription won't end until sometime in October. There's no way HBO is worth $150 a yr and that's not even the best/most expensive plan.

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1 hour ago, Chopper said:

During the phone call with analysts today the CFO said there were some overlapping subscribers and a lot of people who canceled after watching Last of Us. But the issue of overlapping subscribers just raises another question about their prediction of an increase to 100 million global subscribers. They cut content and raised prices and somehow want investors to believe that makes the company more competitive in the streaming category. Keep in mind these are the same execs who are so happy about the strike that they're talking up how much more profitable the company is now that they don't have to pay anyone to produce, write and act in new scripted content.

Also most subscribers probably haven't had a chance to react to sticker shock yet when they see what this years subscription price is (starting at $16/mo or $150/yr -- unless you want ads, $50 more per year if you want 4k.) My hbo streaming plan went from $105 to $150 but the year's subscription won't end until sometime in October. There's no way HBO is worth $150 a yr and that's not even the best/most expensive plan.

It's almost like these corporate execs have no fucking clue what they are doing.  

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12 minutes ago, Queen Bitch said:

"Really proud of my weight loss! All it took was cutting off my arms and legs!!!"

It's certainly been an unexpected race to the bottom between Iger and Zaslav.

This is me basically talking out my ass because I'm not in the industry though I grew up a child of the industry and have friends and clients involved in it so pay somewhat close attention. The consolidation and integration that's been allowed to happen in Hollywood in the last few years is completely fucked up and it means that any idiot can run one of the legacy studios now, and get away with it for a lot longer than they used to be able to because they have so little competition along with a license to print money. I'm encouraged about the victories that the Teamsters have won recently but I'm not optimistic about a near resolution to the AFTRA/SAG strike because I fear it's going to take some time before the studio execs themselves start to feel any sense of panic. If there's a settlement before November I'll be surprised. Also my gut feeling is that a settlement with the actors won't happen significantly ahead of a settlement with the writers this time because of the overarching issues involving AI. I don't see SAG being generous with granting the studios the AI rights the studios are demanding. It's an extremely difficult issue but what measures are agreed to in this contract will determine so much about the future of acting and writing.

 

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1 hour ago, Chopper said:

It's certainly been an unexpected race to the bottom between Iger and Zaslav.

This is me basically talking out my ass because I'm not in the industry though I grew up a child of the industry and have friends and clients involved in it so pay somewhat close attention. The consolidation and integration that's been allowed to happen in Hollywood in the last few years is completely fucked up and it means that any idiot can run one of the legacy studios now, and get away with it for a lot longer than they used to be able to because they have so little competition along with a license to print money. I'm encouraged about the victories that the Teamsters have won recently but I'm not optimistic about a near resolution to the AFTRA/SAG strike because I fear it's going to take some time before the studio execs themselves start to feel any sense of panic. If there's a settlement before November I'll be surprised. Also my gut feeling is that a settlement with the actors won't happen significantly ahead of a settlement with the writers this time because of the overarching issues involving AI. I don't see SAG being generous with granting the studios the AI rights the studios are demanding. It's an extremely difficult issue but what measures are agreed to in this contract will determine so much about the future of acting and writing.

 

I'm not in the industry either (former music biz, but not really the same), but I've been in another realm of corporate America for the past decade and I'm telling you, it's all the same.  

In the regular corporate world, Covid freaked the FUCK out of them and I'm completely convinced they had a meeting of the minds to all come together and crush the peasants.  Back to office full time, despite everyone showing the exact same, if not better, productivity.  It's all corporate control now.  Pretty sure I'm getting out.

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Steven Soderbergh did an interview with Defector talking about his new projects, namly Command Z. He hit some points about streaming and how it fits in the model and his makes some great points.

https://defector.com/steven-soderbergh-says-its-time-to-tear-the-streaming-model-down-to-the-studs

 

Quote

You've experimented with both your filmmaking and distribution methods. Are you working towards an answer to some of this stuff? Or is it just like, let's try something and see how it goes?

A little bit of both? I mean, the ultimate goal is getting people back in theaters. Now, we just had a spectacularly successful movie-going weekend. That's great. How do we sustain that? Especially when it comes to movies that are not at that scale. How do we convince moviegoers to go see things that they (currently) feel like, well, I could have sat at home and watched that—a drama, a mid-level-budgeted adult drama—how do we get them to come out for that? That's the trick. Because that's the audience that is most resistant to go into the theater right now, and being serviced very well by series, and some movies, being made for platforms.

Most of your recent output has been for streaming. What do you see as the importance of the theatrical business?

I certainly think in cultural terms it's necessary. It's a good thing. It's a good thing for people to go out and see movies together. I think it's a collective good. For people to go out and experience art together in numbers, I think is a good thing. It also provides a potential windfall that doesn't exist in the streaming world, which is you make a movie, and it blows up the way these two movies just blew up over the weekend. It's great that Stranger Things blows up, and it means people are on Netflix instead of somewhere else, and it may result in some signups, but it doesn't bring the kind of pure cash windfall that a movie that makes a billion-and-a-half-dollars does. And so that's the problem. If you're a streamer, you have a show that hit; once everybody has seen it, it's just sitting there. It's not throwing off any more revenue because you're not selling it to anybody else anymore. That is a sort of mathematical chink in the streaming platform economic model. And the same goes for a hit TV show. The inability to really monetize your monster successes, I think is a problem.

 

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I understand and can agree somewhat, that AI produced data that trained on an actors performance or writers script, should result in compensation.
As he writes in his op/ed, it would be a daunting challenge to require AI to document its source material and attribute usage in creating new material. Maybe impossible. And doesn’t this open up non-AI work to this? I write a movie that has a character that is similar to a character from a movie that I saw. Would the original writer be owed residuals? And what if he had derived his work from the works of a few other writers?
before they take this up with studios, I would think that new copyright law needs to be written first in which the original artist has rights (compensation and even rejection) if their art is used in AI.
I see this more of a problem for other creative industries than tv or film. With zero music knowledge, I could create new songs that sound like they came from whatever music artist. Here are a 1,000 new Taylor swift songs that my AI created this morning but I just won’t use her name.

Mitch McConnell and Diane Feinstein are on it
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It's almost like these corporate execs have no fucking clue what they are doing.  

Barbie’s a hit! Lets do more toy movies

Ignoring Greta Gerwig’s vision to do something different and casting Margot Robbie and Gosling.

Oppenheimer’s a hit! Which scientist is next!!! Lets do Faraday or Marconi!

These suits cant wait to AI this shit, not realizing it could mean the end of their industry and open up themselves to global competition.
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still find it mildly amusing that after weeks of stories all over social media like "most writers make $12k a year and have a day job", the networks and studios have this feeling they'll "come crawling back".  i guess in their minds, the writers are really concerned that the quality of programming will turn to shit.  as if.

writers won't cave because they're used to the lean times.  when i was actually getting paid (occasionally) to write and work on projects, there were always lean times even when i considered myself busy.  the strike is no different for 95% of the writers out there. 

the ones who had their overall deals disappear or their projects halted, well that's a different story.  but those are typically the ones with some cash socked away.

meanwhile, actors and directors seem too busy getting waivers to come to the table.  this is gonna be a while.

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1 hour ago, Eskimohorn said:


Barbie’s a hit! Lets do more toy movies

Ignoring Greta Gerwig’s vision to do something different and casting Margot Robbie and Gosling.

Oppenheimer’s a hit! Which scientist is next!!! Lets do Faraday or Marconi!

These suits cant wait to AI this shit, not realizing it could mean the end of their industry and open up themselves to global competition.

As an aside, I thought Barbie sucked (not the target demo, my daughters liked it) but it was interesting. Noah and Greta are to thank for that and to a lesser degree the casting folks and Margot/Gosling.

Noah and Greta's masterpiece was the Netflix released White Noise. Really fantastic treatment on an almost impossible task, to turn that dialogue-driven novel into an interesting movie. Casting Adam Driver, who is quickly one of my favorite actors in Hollywood, was brilliant. 

I guess what I'm saying is Greta/Noah, and the creatives in Hollywood like them, they are doing interesting things that isn't IP-laden but it gets nowhere.

Nobody went to see The Barbie movie because they thought Greta was going to make an interesting movie. They went and saw it because it became a vibe, thanks in large part to both a perfect storm of organic virality for pretty and interesting and fun people on apps like TIkTok while also hitting for the core target demo of girl tweens/teens/young women on the back of (an albeit brilliant, but massive) $150mm marketing campaign to get butts in seats.

The end result is people are pleasantly surprised it's actually a good film where they were just expecting a good time/experience (a la Lego Movie).

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Both sides are fairly tight-lipped, but sounds like today was a lot of nothing. The studios (allegedly) continued to reject our proposals while — AFTER 95 GODDAMNED DAYS — offering a single counter of substance.

So yeah, lotta nothing burger, sounds like.

Meanwhile, today, on day 95, THIS is what the Universal picket looked like:

We are going NOWHERE.

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10 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

still find it mildly amusing that after weeks of stories all over social media like "most writers make $12k a year and have a day job", the networks and studios have this feeling they'll "come crawling back".  i guess in their minds, the writers are really concerned that the quality of programming will turn to shit.  as if.

writers won't cave because they're used to the lean times.  when i was actually getting paid (occasionally) to write and work on projects, there were always lean times even when i considered myself busy.  the strike is no different for 95% of the writers out there. 

the ones who had their overall deals disappear or their projects halted, well that's a different story.  but those are typically the ones with some cash socked away.

meanwhile, actors and directors seem too busy getting waivers to come to the table.  this is gonna be a while.

So would now be a good time for me to submit my first screen play? 

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Welp, yesterday was 100 days, which was the length of the entire ‘07/08 strike.

In those 100 days, the studios have agreed to meet with us exactly one time — last fucking week — to tell us the only way they’d meet with us is if we fully take our biggest issues off the table. Not to negotiate on them or find compromise, but to fully discard them. 
 

As you can imagine, our leadership walked away. Who knows when the studios will agree to another meeting, but who cares how long it takes. We’re winning, and our asks are a rounding error in their books.

 

Anywho, we toasted to our strength and our resolve yesterday, then went to an open bar to celebrate. Here’s a little snippet of the moment, which I wish was longer. 

 

 

 

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56 minutes ago, Queen Bitch said:

Negotiation over for today. Both sides adhering to the media blackout. Sounds like the studios finally (AFTER 102 FUCKING DAYS) offered a counter to our proposals. 

No mudslinging is a good sign. Cautious optimism -- feels weird, man!

Awesome and congrats on the good energy!

Question for you and Hank: I read today that House of Dragons (the GoT/HBO big budget thing) had been filming and is currently filming, etc. via some loophole that it's in UK.

How can that be? Isn't that a little chickenpoop of them to do this during the strike? I feel like I've heard about a lot of loopholes the last 100 days and it doesn't strike me (no pun intended) as all that honorable or just. Your thoughts?

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2 hours ago, AnimalTobacco said:

Awesome and congrats on the good energy!

Question for you and Hank: I read today that House of Dragons (the GoT/HBO big budget thing) had been filming and is currently filming, etc. via some loophole that it's in UK.

How can that be? Isn't that a little chickenpoop of them to do this during the strike? I feel like I've heard about a lot of loopholes the last 100 days and it doesn't strike me (no pun intended) as all that honorable or just. Your thoughts?

The contract for those actors is Equity, not SAG-AFTRA. It sucks, but it’s absolutely the exception, and I’ve read the Equity leadership isn’t thrilled about being a loophole. Maybe they’ll work to close that in the future, who knows?

 

it’s the equivalent of writers currently working in animation, which is largely covered by a totally different union, TAG (The Animation Guild.) They’re currently writing, as they’re under an active contract.

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Just reread my response. It’s a mess but I can’t edit it lol.

Hot D is covered by Equity, the actors guild in the UK. It’s NOT covered by SAG-AFTRA.

That being said, it’s ABSOLUTELY covered by the WGA and should have been shut down on those grounds. There’s absolutely no scenario where you shoot the scripts as-is and don’t change a word on set, despite what the showrunner claimed publicly. He should have walked away — as many of his showrunners colleagues chose to — but he didn’t. Oh well.

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Are per-view residuals a demand/request of the unions? I saw an online clip of an actress saying how she wants to get paid for every streaming view of her shows. I just don't see how this is feasible without major changes.

  1. Streaming platforms could start to charge more once a user watches more than X hours per month. This is technically possible but customers would revolt since they would see this as a money grab by Hollywood (platforms, production companies and talent.) I guess this could be quietly introduced for only the extreme users and then slowly lowered for more revenue.
  2. Allocate residual money by show/movie popularity. This would greatly reward popular shows but then less popular shows would pay out even smaller residuals than today which would seem to go against the goals of the strikes.
  3. Raise streaming prices

I don't think it's a coincidence that streaming platforms are quickly rising their prices or introducing more commercial packages. They probably recognize that the current model is unsustainable and the general public has to eat the costs of the future actor and writer contracts. As a customer, I have many of the streaming platforms at low-ish prices where I signed during a promo. I might watch 0-5 hours per month on any given platform. If they raise the prices too much, I would drop them without missing them.

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8 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Are per-view residuals a demand/request of the unions? I saw an online clip of an actress saying how she wants to get paid for every streaming view of her shows. I just don't see how this is feasible without major changes.

  1. Streaming platforms could start to charge more once a user watches more than X hours per month. This is technically possible but customers would revolt since they would see this as a money grab by Hollywood (platforms, production companies and talent.) I guess this could be quietly introduced for only the extreme users and then slowly lowered for more revenue.
  2. Allocate residual money by show/movie popularity. This would greatly reward popular shows but then less popular shows would pay out even smaller residuals than today which would seem to go against the goals of the strikes.
  3. Raise streaming prices

I don't think it's a coincidence that streaming platforms are quickly rising their prices or introducing more commercial packages. They probably recognize that the current model is unsustainable and the general public has to eat the costs of the future actor and writer contracts. As a customer, I have many of the streaming platforms at low-ish prices where I signed during a promo. I might watch 0-5 hours per month on any given platform. If they raise the prices too much, I would drop them without missing them.

smaller than zero? 

what you're describing is how it should work and has always worked in tv.  popular shows stay on the air longer and the actors/writers get paid more, because the ad revenue is higher.  netflix changed the model and here we are.

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Awesome and congrats on the good energy!
Question for you and Hank: I read today that House of Dragons (the GoT/HBO big budget thing) had been filming and is currently filming, etc. via some loophole that it's in UK.
How can that be? Isn't that a little chickenpoop of them to do this during the strike? I feel like I've heard about a lot of loopholes the last 100 days and it doesn't strike me (no pun intended) as all that honorable or just. Your thoughts?

HOD has writers?
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