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Posted
11 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

I sold out of XBTY on Monday and saved $2,350. Did I criminal right?

Only if you were building your position to literally the minute before the tariff (there's that word again) announcement, and started offloading it 5 minutes after for a massive gain. Otherwise play on player

Posted
On 10/11/2025 at 7:17 PM, Pescado_Rojo said:

Reliable. Store. Of. Value.

Meh. Bitcoin is down a whopping 8.2% from all time highs. 
 

On 10/12/2025 at 6:35 AM, Captainant said:

Obligatory coffezilla breakdown of someone making $190,000,000 on shorts in crypto markets

 

 

dont even have to watch video to know what’s going on. The financial scamming in the crypto space is by far the worst thing this administration is participating in. Inexcusable. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Screwed said:

dont even have to watch video to know what’s going on. The financial scamming in the crypto space is by far the worst thing this administration is participating in. Inexcusable. 

Not the $20,000,000,000 gift to Argentina - who a couple years ago you were SURE we're gonna fix their problems with crypto and populism? Literally two orders of magnitude worse than this particular grift

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Posted (edited)

It’s too complicated for me, but I dig that channel and in his opinion, what we’re doing with Argentina is not a gift. It’s a liquidity injection, a loan with (relatively low) interest rates to prevent a short squeeze. It’s a relatively normal currency exchange. We’re helping them stabilize their currency that they’re “crawling” pegging (giggity) to the dollar. I think it’s in the dollar’s and America’s western hemisphere interests, even if it is technically a bailout. 

Edited by B00M
If it is a gift, it’s an inflation adjusted gift on the order of millions, very unlikely to be billions
Posted
It’s too complicated for me, but I dig that channel and in his opinion, what we’re doing with Argentina is not a gift. It’s a liquidity injection, a loan with (relatively low) interest rates to prevent a short squeeze. It’s a relatively normal currency exchange. We’re helping them stabilize their currency that they’re “crawling” pegging (giggity) to the dollar. I think it’s in the dollar’s and America’s western hemisphere interests, even if it is technically a bailout. 

There’s thinking that it’s a defensible idea/action (it may well be, for the reasons you say), and then there’s utterly forgetting the swooning over Milei, and how he was gonna show all them deep state libtard types what a true libertarian crypto paradise would look like!
When the very people who held him up as the archetype for freedom and gubmint bad and all that are ALSO supporting his bailout…yeah, we’re laughing AT you, not with you.
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:


There’s thinking that it’s a defensible idea/action (it may well be, for the reasons you say), and then there’s utterly forgetting the swooning over Milei, and how he was gonna show all them deep state libtard types what a true libertarian crypto paradise would look like!
When the very people who held him up as the archetype for freedom and gubmint bad and all that are ALSO supporting his bailout…yeah, we’re laughing AT you, not with you.

It’s been like 22 months? Drawing economic conclusions is premature. Argentina was and still is in a tough spot, but 2 years isn’t enough time to judge a big economic experiment that has some positive indicators. 

Edited by B00M
Posted
It’s been like 22 months? Drawing economic conclusions is premature. Argentina was and still is in a tough spot, but 2 years isn’t enough time to judge a big economic experiment that has some positive indicators. 

There hasn’t been enough time? All yall were doing victory laps just a few months ago when things looked better. GTFO with that “it’s just been 22 months” bullshit.
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Posted
6 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


There hasn’t been enough time? All yall were doing victory laps just a few months ago when things looked better. GTFO with that “it’s just been 22 months” bullshit.

Good lord, I’m not a crypto bro or your political enemy, and I certainly wasn’t taking victory laps over Argentina a few months ago

 

Posted
6 hours ago, scramblyn said:

Argentina is always in a tough spot. 

Latinx hate them because they are so arrogant and uppity and pretend they are european and look down on their brown neighbors.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

lmfao CZ got a fucking pardon

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-pardons-convicted-binance-founder-zhao-white-house-says-2025-10-23/

U.S. authorities said in 2023 that Binance had failed to report suspicious transactions with organizations including Hamas and al Qaeda and with websites dedicated to selling child sexual abuse materials.

Zhao, a citizen of Canada who was born in China, personally paid a $50 million fine and served nearly four months in prison last year after pleading guilty to the same charge as his company.

However, he kept his Binance stake, while one of his appointees was made chief executive.

"I made mistakes, and I must take responsibility," Zhao said when he stepped down.

The full and unconditional pardon could pave the way for him to return to the business he co-founded in 2017. It may also offer the chance for Binance to expand in the United States as the crypto industry booms under the Trump administration.

...

Binance itself this year offered support to one of the Trump family's crypto ventures, World Liberty Financial.

In May, Binance accepted World Liberty's USD1 stablecoin as payment for a $2 billion investment in the exchange by Abu Dhabi investment firm MGX. Binance's decision to accept USD1, which was launched only in March, provided a big boost to the World Liberty venture, and still accounts for most of the USD1 in circulation.
 

Edited by Captainant
  • 2 weeks later...
Posted

I'm gonna laugh if a lot of these SPACs and other shitty penny stock companies seeking to emulate MSTR go bankrupt because they funneled money they could use on growing their core business into a BTC treasury, in many cases diluting the company significantly or borrowing funds just to make the purchases. HODL will transition from a stupid reddit meme to a corporate mantra as these companies circle the drain. 

 

Posted
50 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

HODL

Always.

A lot of speculation about top being in. One on-chain analyst I follow has been tracking these things closely. He holds that 95k is the big line in sand, that it could be watch out below.

Spoiler

G’day Folks,

In what feels like the twelfth consecutive month of asking ‘is the top already in?’…we still don’t actually have a firm resolution to that question.

We have historically large selling, soft demand from the ETFs, and Treasury Companies trading 90%+ off their ATHs. And yet the price is still hanging on by a thread within the extremely dense zone of demand that exists above $95k.

In my opinion, the price level which shifts the balance in favour of the bears is $95k, which is the floor of The HODLers Wall.

We’re now at a stage where 65% of all the USD invested in Bitcoin has a cost basis above $95k, and I’d imagine if we lost that level, things will probably deteriorate quickly.

Live Chart

One of the super-powers of analysing Bitcoin’s onchain data is we can model out, and visualise the price levels where a dense cluster of investor cost bases are located.

Given Bitcoin has experienced several cycle tops in the past, and since we can look at the historical supply distribution, today’s post will compare and analyse current market conditions, to those we saw in the 2017, and both of the 2021 cycle tops.

The goal is to look for both similarities and differences, which may give us a hint as to which direction this chopsolidation process ultimately resolves.

 

TL;DR Summary

We have seen two distinct types of Bitcoin cycle peak; the euphoric blow-off seen in 2017 and Apr-2021, and the second-wind peak in Nov-2021, and arguably today in 2025.

In the euphoric tops, the price rallied so hard,m and so fast, that it left large air-pockets where very few coins transacted. In both 20-17 and 2021, the bear markets that followed eventually filled these price zones back in.

We also saw over 75% of the invested USD value with a cost basis above those air-pockets owned entirely by Short-Term Holders, making for violent ends to those vertical price moves.

Unrealised losses on the sell-offs tended to reach over 15% of the market cap, which utterly extinguished what was left of bull market sentiment.

In the second wind peak of Nov-2021, the supply distribution was comparatively less concentrated at the top, and had a mix of both Long and Short-Term Holder value in the topping zone. Unrealised losses were around 5-7% in the 1.5-months that followed the ATH, and this is much more similar to our current structure.

There are several similarities between the Nov-2021 peak, and the current Nov-2025 market, namely the ‘top heavy’ supply distribution, and the way price is trading weakly off the back of it.

However, there are notable differences too, most importantly that the 2025 market is considerably less volatile, and the bears are having a much harder time making ground than they did in late-2021, where support just gave way.

The 2025 market is arguably much more stable and resilient than in 2021, which doesn’t negate the idea that the bears may succeed in taking us below $95k…but it doesn’t make it a forgone conclusion either.

Another interesting analysis going around is that we essentially seeing the "Bitcoin IPO moment" happening. Large amounts of old coins are being sold. One specific wallet worth $8B was moved and presumably sold. Basically, with the regulatory clarity now here large OG whales feel safe to actually sell large amounts of their coins. There's also the volume to eat them up. I think that makes sense and those will need to be digested before another leg up. You also have the people panic selling that think the 4 year cycle is still a thing and the top is in before an extended bear market. 

Personally, I think the 4 year cycles are done. We will not have to go 3+ years to get another ATH. I think the new institutional players in the market make it a new market that won't have the extreme booms and busts of the past that were driven by retail. We'll see.

 

Posted

Money devalues through inflation over time, intentionally.  That's motivates commerce .  It encourages people to get it out of their hands in exchange for goods and services. Deflation is bad. The opposite happens.  See Depression, Great.

Crypto's attraction is it is going up.  This is how I'll get rich.  The longer I hold it, the richer I get because someone later will pay more for it tomorrow and even more the day after.  Isn't this contradiction going to forever make crypto a nonviable currency?  

Posted
2 minutes ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

Money devalues through inflation over time, intentionally.  That's motivates commerce .  It encourages people to get it out of their hands in exchange for goods and services. Deflation is bad. The opposite happens.  See Depression, Great.

Crypto's attraction is it is going up.  This is how I'll get rich.  The longer I hold it, the richer I get because someone later will pay more for it tomorrow and even more the day after.  Isn't this contradiction going to forever make crypto a nonviable currency?  

BTC hasn’t been a currency since the early days, in the same way gold isn’t a currency anymore either. It has a speculative component but it’s more an inflation resistant store of value that does appreciate because of the inflationary pressures and because of supply and demand scarcity. The one thing that is true about BTC is that it has rapidly evolved over the last many years. 

Posted
20 hours ago, scramblyn said:

BTC hasn’t been a currency since the early days, in the same way gold isn’t a currency anymore either. It has a speculative component but it’s more an inflation resistant store of value that does appreciate because of the inflationary pressures and because of supply and demand scarcity. The one thing that is true about BTC is that it has rapidly evolved over the last many years. 

You can’t buy things with gold over your phone.
 

Big announcement this week. It can be spent. Or you can even just pay people in BTC easily. 
 

 

Just go to the Bitcoin button on cashapp. Here’s the current map of vendors in Austin zoomed out. 
 

IMG-7342.jpg

 

Posted
19 minutes ago, Cyrus the Great said:

You can’t buy things with gold over your phone.
 

Big announcement this week. It can be spent. Or you can even just pay people in BTC easily. 
 

 

Just go to the Bitcoin button on cashapp. Here’s the current map of vendors in Austin zoomed out. 
 

IMG-7342.jpg

 

Lol. Lmao, even. That's not on-chain transactions, it's a side-chain with a trusted third party like lightning is. Trusted third parties break a core operating principle of the Bitcoin protocol and white paper.

You're just recreating the banking system, but with way less efficiency and way more money laundering

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Posted
7 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

I understand that was the start but how fucking stupid does the guy who spent 10 bitcoin on pizza and beer 10 years ago feel now? Btw bitcoin isn’t a currency, it’s a security according to legal principles.  

The underlying protocol hasn't changed. Code is law in cryptocurrency, and it's definitionally a currency with extremely low throughput and extremely high energy requirements 

Posted (edited)

I don’t give a fuck. It doesn’t function like a currency for 95% (maybe more) of its holders at all.  It’s actually probably more like a commodity (held directly) than a security with trades in BTC being securities through ETFs etc. 

Edited by scramblyn
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Posted
6 hours ago, scramblyn said:

I don’t give a fuck. It doesn’t function like a currency for 95% (maybe more) of its holders at all.  It’s actually probably more like a commodity (held directly) than a security with trades in BTC being securities through ETFs etc. 

So you're saying it's entire purpose is not to deliver a utility but fish for a greater fool? I can't disagree 

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Captainant said:

So you're saying its entire purpose is not to deliver a utility but fish for a greater fool? I can't disagree 

What it was created for and how it’s being used are different. It’s just facts. 

Edited by scramblyn
Posted
2 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

What it was created for and how it’s being used are different. It’s just facts. 

But you're saying the only reason to buy it is to sell it to a greater fool later. Other assets represent real tangible goods or interests in a business. Bitcoin is an entry on a distributed spreadsheet - by your argument it's not good for anything else. 

So why is a line item on a distributed ledger intrinsically a security? If there's no value or function intrinsic to the thing itself, I mean

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

But you're saying the only reason to buy it is to sell it to a greater fool later. Other assets represent real tangible goods or interests in a business. Bitcoin is an entry on a distributed spreadsheet - by your argument it's not good for anything else. 

So why is a line item on a distributed ledger intrinsically a security? If there's no value or function intrinsic to the thing itself, I mean

You can have it dog. Arguing with you doesn’t make a shit. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

You can have it dog. Arguing with you doesn’t make a shit. 

I mean, there's nothing wrong with gambling on purely speculative assets but you shouldn't be lying to yourself and others that it's a security just because it makes you feel good to say it

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Posted

Bitcoin is not a security under legal principles. A lot of other cryptocurrencies are but Bitcoin is not. A security requires derivation of value from those who are managing it. And as far as I know, Bitcoin does not have that management component. So it is a lot more like gold or silver or diamonds or iron. 

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Posted
44 minutes ago, elfenix said:

Bitcoin is not a security under legal principles. A lot of other cryptocurrencies are but Bitcoin is not. A security requires derivation of value from those who are managing it. And as far as I know, Bitcoin does not have that management component. So it is a lot more like gold or silver or diamonds or iron. 

I get where you're going, but

The term “security” means any note, stock, treasury stock, security future, security-based swap, bond, debenture, evidence of indebtedness, certificate of interest or participation in any profit-sharing agreement, collateral-trust certificate, preorganization certificate or subscription, transferable share, investment contract, voting-trust certificate, certificate of deposit for a security, fractional undivided interest in oil, gas, or other mineral rights, any put, call, straddle, option, or privilege on any security, certificate of deposit, or group or index of securities (including any interest therein or based on the value thereof), or any put, call, straddle, option, or privilege entered into on a national securities exchange relating to foreign currency, or, in general, any interest or instrument commonly known as a “security”, or any certificate of interest or participation in, temporary or interim certificate for, receipt for, guarantee of, or warrant or right to subscribe to or purchase, any of the foregoing.

Posted
48 minutes ago, elfenix said:

Bitcoin is not a security under legal principles. A lot of other cryptocurrencies are but Bitcoin is not. A security requires derivation of value from those who are managing it. And as far as I know, Bitcoin does not have that management component. So it is a lot more like gold or silver or diamonds or iron. 

you are correct, I pivoted to commodity. I was thinking about how I hold BTC which is through an ETF which is a security and got turned around a bit.  the actual bitcoin itself is not a security in the pure sense. 

3 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

I get where you're going, but

The term “security” means any note, stock, treasury stock, security future, security-based swap, bond, debenture, evidence of indebtedness, certificate of interest or participation in any profit-sharing agreement, collateral-trust certificate, preorganization certificate or subscription, transferable share, investment contract, voting-trust certificate, certificate of deposit for a security, fractional undivided interest in oil, gas, or other mineral rights, any put, call, straddle, option, or privilege on any security, certificate of deposit, or group or index of securities (including any interest therein or based on the value thereof), or any put, call, straddle, option, or privilege entered into on a national securities exchange relating to foreign currency, or, in general, any interest or instrument commonly known as a “security”, or any certificate of interest or participation in, temporary or interim certificate for, receipt for, guarantee of, or warrant or right to subscribe to or purchase, any of the foregoing.

if you compare currency, security and commodity, BTC acts like a commodity (like gold for example) more than the other two. the lack of practical utility is what throws everyone off, but it is no way shape or form predominately used as a currency, despite it's original premise upon its creation.

Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, Captainant said:

I mean, there's nothing wrong with gambling on purely speculative assets but you shouldn't be lying to yourself and others that it's a security just because it makes you feel good to say it

I already pivoted it's a commodity like gold (and explained why I was wrong), but it's not a currency. and if it were, tell me this, when was the last time you spent BTC on mundane goods or services? when did you buy a car with it? when did you buy a house with it?  it's theoretical underpinnings may be there for it to be a currency but the vast majority who hold it do not treat it like a currency, including you.

Edited by scramblyn
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

I already pivoted it's a commodity like gold (and explained why I was wrong), but it's not a currency. and if it were, tell me this, when was the last time you spent BTC on mundane goods or services? when did you buy a car with it? when did you buy a house with it?  it's theoretical underpinnings may be there for it to be a currency but the vast majority who hold it do not treat it like a currency, including you.

What makes it a security? What thing does it secure for you? There is no other side to the transaction of a Bitcoin sale that the Bitcoin is securing for you. There is no promise of goods to be bought or sold with it, and no utility to gain with it by your own acknowledgement.

Buying a stock gives you a vote in the company's decisions. Buying a bond gives you a contractual obligation to get paid back by the bond issuer. There's another side to those transactions that the asset is securing for the buyer. There is no such thing for Bitcoin.

And applying the asset lense, what asset does it represent? There is not anything that it represents aside from an entry on a distributed ledger.

Again, there's nothing wrong with buying and selling cryptos, but it's definitionally NOT a security and is explicitly a currency in name and architecture and implementation 

Edited by Captainant
Posted
1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

I get where you're going, but

The term “security” means any note, stock, treasury stock, security future, security-based swap, bond, debenture, evidence of indebtedness, certificate of interest or participation in any profit-sharing agreement, collateral-trust certificate, preorganization certificate or subscription, transferable share, investment contract, voting-trust certificate, certificate of deposit for a security, fractional undivided interest in oil, gas, or other mineral rights, any put, call, straddle, option, or privilege on any security, certificate of deposit, or group or index of securities (including any interest therein or based on the value thereof), or any put, call, straddle, option, or privilege entered into on a national securities exchange relating to foreign currency, or, in general, any interest or instrument commonly known as a “security”, or any certificate of interest or participation in, temporary or interim certificate for, receipt for, guarantee of, or warrant or right to subscribe to or purchase, any of the foregoing.

and several of those things can be more broad than howey or would be considered notes and so would not be securities. 

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