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Posted

June 12-15, Oakmont PA, Oakmont CC

Oakmont flyover - 2025 U.S. Open: Flyovers of Every Hole at Oakmont

Yeah, I know the PGA Championship just ended yesterday, but in the new tour schedule the US open is 4 weeks away and today is the first day of qualifying. 

Japan qualifying was today with 43 players for 3 spots 2025 U.S. Open Final Qualifying: Japan

Dallas is underway, with 7 spots 2025 U.S. Open Final Qualifying: Dallas

England is underway, with 8 spots Leaderboard - U.S. Open Final Qualifying 2025 - DP World Tour

June 2nd is the longest day in golf with 10 more sites around the US, and Canada - 2025 U.S. Open Local and Final Qualiyfing (this is the day after the Memorial, which is still the traditional day for most of the sites)

 

The last time the US Open was played here was 2016, Dustin Johnson won; trivia note is Rahm played as an amateur. The event was choppy, as the first round was rain delayed on Thursday, with only 3 groups completing their first round of play, Friday was completion of the 1st round and only the first wave starting the 2nd round. Saturday the 2nd round completed at 2pm, and the course was closed, for darkness and then they did complete the event on Sunday.
DJ came back from 3rd place shooting a 69, from 5 shots behind Shane Lowry who put up a 76. Hopefully the weather is better this year, and we get an entertaining and exciting show. 
Vegas Insider lists the following as odds 
 

Spoiler

ODDS TO WIN 2025 U.S. OPEN

Listed below are the odds to win the 2025 U.S. Open golf tournament.

  • Scottie Scheffler +470
  • Rory McIlroy +1000
  • Xander Schauffele +1200
  • Jon Rahm +1200
  • Ludvig Aberg +1500
  • Bryson DeChambeau +1700
  • Collin Morikawa +1700
  • Viktor Hovland +2200
  • Brooks Koepka +2200
  • Hideki Matsuyama +2200
  • Patrick Cantlay +3000
  • Justin Thomas +3000
  • Cameron Smith +3500
  • Joaquin Niemann +3500
  • Tony Finau +4500
  • Max Homa +4500
  • Tommy Fleetwood +4500
  • Tyrrell Hatton +4500
  • Sam Burns +4500
  • Will Zalatoris +5000
  • Matt Fitzpatrick +5000
  • Sahith Theegala +5000
  • Wyndham Clark +5500
  • Cameron Young +5500
  • Tom Kim +5500
  • Jordan Spieth +5500
  • Shane Lowry +5500
  • Dustin Johnson +7500
  • Min Woo Lee +7500
  • Jason Day +7500
  • Corey Conners +7500
  • Russell Henley +7500
  • Sung-Jae Im +7500
  • Adam Scott +8000
  • Sepp Straka +9000
  • JT Poston +9000

All Other Golfers listed at +10000 or Higher

Odds Provided by bet365 - Subject to Change

 

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Posted (edited)

Dallas (Bent Tree CC)  highlights - 7 for 1 playoff for shooting -7 today, Johnny Keefer (San Antonio) wins the spot. 2 ams got in the field, the only name (pro) that I recognize is Adam Schenk who shot -10 to T2. Bunch of names that miss out, the one is the strangest scorecard is Carson Young who shot 69-67 to miss the playoff by 1 shot, the back nine on his second round was birdie, birdie, double, birdie, birdie, double, birdie, birdie, birdie for a sweet 33 (must be water or OB - because the 2 doubles are on the par 5's) 

 

Edited by Wally Fairway
  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
1 hour ago, thunderlounge said:

Sergio Garcia: out

 

So it wasn’t very long for him. 

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Posted

A buddy of mine works there. He said a ton of players are going to be at Oakmont tomorrow.  He also said one of the foursomes playing in the event tomorrow is worth a combined $1,500,000,000.

We used to swim against Oakmont in the country club swimming association. We used to clobber them.  Of course their youth golf team was very good. I worked three of the Opens and they were a lot of fun.

One of our family friends was the club President when they cut down all the trees to take it back to its original form. Said it was nuts the calls they’d get at night from people complaining.

My buddy J.R. Is in charge of the little kids who walk the course with the scoring placards. It will be his boy’s first Open.

Me, I’m getting out of town today. I don’t want to go anywhere near Oakmont the next three weeks. Sitting at Dulles waiting to fly to Germany.

I know folks who rent out their homes for serious money when the Open comes. 
 

It is a great course and a wonderful club.

 

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Posted

He was a top 10 player and decided to change everything for some reason. Equipment, coach, clothing and now he’s blowing through caddies. Really strange. 

Posted

This will be a pretty fascinating US. Open. I think the oddsmakers are right with Scheffler being the heavy favorite, and then Bryson after him.  Oakmont is the ultimate test, and I don't see a lot of guys playing right now with the mental toughness to get through this course every day. 

Who else can win?

 - Rory completely fell apart at The Canadian Open. Massive swing failures on Friday. Maybe he just checked out, but that had to rattle him a little. 

- Xander? He has the skills/mindset, but he needs to play a lot better than he has so far this season. 

- I think playing on LIV tour has weakened Rahm mentally. I guess he could turn it around after competing at The Masters. 

- I'm a big Aberg fan, but he's been so inconsistent

 

Some commentator said it recently and I agree...the harder the course, the better for Scottie. The fact that it's almost impossible to go low at Oakmont suppresses the chances of a lesser player catching fire and making a serious run. 

 

 

Posted (edited)

Also, I'm not some Bryson fanboi but this is an excellent video and preview of Oakmont. 

 

And watching this seems to confirm Bryson's biggest flaw...he is just not good enough with iron play right now. Great off the tee and excellent putter, but his clock system for his iron swings doesn't produce consistent enough results. And I think his ego with distances is affecting him. 

Edited by Hank Kingsley
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Posted (edited)

The course conditions will be interesting to watch. It’s been raining there often so the rough will be thick and juicy. If they can somewhat dry the greens out, scoring will be tough. Should be fun to watch as Oakmont is the ultimate US Open test. 

Edited by TonyTexas
Posted
14 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

The course conditions will be interesting to watch. It’s been raining there often so the rough will be thick and juicy. If they can somewhat dry the greens out, scoring will be tough. Should be fun to watch as Oakmont is the ultimate US Open test. 

Just how I like 'em! 

Oh, this is about golf?

Nevermind.

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Posted
On 6/9/2025 at 8:33 AM, Hank Kingsley said:

Also, I'm not some Bryson fanboi but this is an excellent video and preview of Oakmont. 

 

And watching this seems to confirm Bryson's biggest flaw...he is just not good enough with iron play right now. Great off the tee and excellent putter, but his clock system for his iron swings doesn't produce consistent enough results. And I think his ego with distances is affecting him. 

I think the one length irons don't help, either. Everything just goes so high. There is no flighting of the ball or anything. Which is really odd because he's a good chipper with lots of imagination around the greens. 

At Augusta Rory put on a clinic in shot making against him. 

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Posted
On 6/9/2025 at 10:33 AM, Hank Kingsley said:

And watching this seems to confirm Bryson's biggest flaw...he is just not good enough with iron play right now.

I just watched his PC and he said he’s got a new set of irons in the bag that he hopes will help with his iron play. It’s some over-engineered bullshit but you never know. I think his biggest problem is that he relies too much on science and not enough on feel. 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, pops said:

I think the one length irons don't help, either. Everything just goes so high. There is no flighting of the ball or anything. Which is really odd because he's a good chipper with lots of imagination around the greens. 

Yep, he can be wildly short on a lot of clean approach shots. Like full club short. I notice it with him more than any other top player. 

That said, after Scheffler I think he has the best shot to win this weekend. 

 

 

Posted
On 6/9/2025 at 10:33 AM, Hank Kingsley said:

Also, I'm not some Bryson fanboi but this is an excellent video and preview of Oakmont. 

 

And watching this seems to confirm Bryson's biggest flaw...he is just not good enough with iron play right now. Great off the tee and excellent putter, but his clock system for his iron swings doesn't produce consistent enough results. And I think his ego with distances is affecting him. 

His content in general is pretty awesome. I obviously love the guy and root for him hard but a lot of that is just association. I get why people don't like him and even for me he can still be a little off-putting sometimes. 

That said - he seems like a good dude that cares about the game and the fans and as much as any other player he works his fucking ass off. 

Think this is going to be an interesting week. You can't not like Scottie. I also think the Rory stuff has swung so far in one direction that I wouldn't be surprised if he's like a shot off the lead thru 36. Seems like a fucky setup that could produce an interesting leaderboard. 

Posted

With Bryson it’s going to come down to how much he gets punished by being in the rough. He’s going to bomb it and end up out of position in the rough. Does he get punished for it and can other golfers score better by being in the fairway, or at least in better positions.

He got really lucky at pinehurst. That final round he had 6-7 drives (maybe more) off into the waste areas and he kept getting lucky with the results. I think in that final round he only lost 1 stroke to the wire grass when he could have easily ended up several shots lost there. 

That’s also why he’ll probably never win the masters playing that course the way that he tries to play it. He doesn’t have the finesse and he puts himself into positions that are impossible to score from. 

He’s barely positive in total strokes gained for his career at the masters and the only reason it’s close is his strokes gained off the tee. He’s only had a positive number once each in SG approach & around d the green.

On the flip side, Scottie is almost never out of position. His method of having green/yellow/red areas of the green complex when he’s approaching means he’s almost never in a position to drop a shot. Whether that be at the masters, or anywhere else, he just plays much smarter golf than Bryson does. 

Or can a guy like Morikawa who is so accurate off the tee and approaching the green make up for his lack of distance?

Oakmont is such a complete test and the ways it examines your game so varied that I could see Bryson having a tough time with it. The day he played it where he spent a lot of time hacking it out of the rough for YouTube was a really soft conditions. I think he said early in that video that the greens were rolling at a 10. Oakmont is targeting 14.5 to 14.7 for the tournament. That’s a very different animal.

 

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Posted (edited)

I think Bryson is a FIGJAM but I get liking him. He’s won two of these so has to be a favorite just behind Scottie. Shaky putter and so-so wedge game don’t matter as much this week on a course where driver is paramount and the greens are so tough that hitting it to 15 feet doesn’t have as big an edge. 

Edited by MrX
Posted
5 minutes ago, heso said:

The day he played it where he spent a lot of time hacking it out of the rough for YouTube was a really soft conditions.

Watching it right now and soft or not it's cold and windy in the vid. Also not sure that greens being slower/faster really bug someone like him. 

Posted

I've never felt so clueless about how a tournament will play out. 

Outside of Scottie/Rory/Bryson, a lot of the top players have been really inconsistent this year. But since it will most likely take playing great golf 4 straight days to contend, I don't see how the lower tier players have a chance. Gonna be fascinating. 

 

Posted

On the Frieg Egg website they did an interview with Nobilo. He had a great description of Scottie - he’s a four day player. Bryson can get sunk on one day “because the wind wasn’t right” or some shit.

Posted
1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I've never felt so clueless about how a tournament will play out. 

Outside of Scottie/Rory/Bryson, a lot of the top players have been really inconsistent this year. But since it will most likely take playing great golf 4 straight days to contend, I don't see how the lower tier players have a chance. Gonna be fascinating. 

 

It’s not an overly long course - check the DJ win. Ball strikers galore on the leaderboard but some wild guys like ZJ are up there late. I think a guy like Morikawa could contend 

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Posted

If Scottie plays well for 4 days, he wins running away. His skills/mentality/management are a perfect fit at Oakmont compared to the rest of the field.  But the course is so difficult that he could play poorly and flat out miss the cut. 

Super excited about this one. 

 

 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I've never felt so clueless about how a tournament will play out. 

Outside of Scottie/Rory/Bryson, a lot of the top players have been really inconsistent this year. But since it will most likely take playing great golf 4 straight days to contend, I don't see how the lower tier players have a chance. Gonna be fascinating. 

 

I would feel more clueless if I didn't think there's a bit of a top echelon right now. Scottie has 2 since the start of last year. X has 2. Bryson has 1 and flirted with a couple others. Rory has his, obviously, and flirted with the US Open last year. 

I just don't see a weird winner this week. Unless you think someone like Aberg is weird. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, MrX said:

It’s not an overly long course - check the DJ win. Ball strikers galore on the leaderboard but some wild guys like ZJ are up there late. I think a guy like Morikawa could contend 

Yeah, I saw a clip yesterday from DJ's PC. He said all he really remembers about his win at Oakmont is he drove the ball straight the entire week. 

Posted
10 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Watching it right now and soft or not it's cold and windy in the vid. Also not sure that greens being slower/faster really bug someone like him. 

Coming out of the rough onto greens rolling at 15 is a different activity than ones rolling at a 10.

Can he do it? Of course, winged foot showed that he’s capable of just bombing it over the top of the course’s protection and since everyone was in the rough, it’s better to be longer and in the rough. 

We’ll find out in a couple days if Oakmont can be bombed over. Or if it’s is still a course that requires accuracy and smart play. 

Posted

Bryson’s a way better driver of the ball now than he was at Winged Foot, where he was BEEFCAKE and just cared about distance. I watched the video and he never was in a ton of trouble.  Yeah the greens will be faster but he was dropping everything in regulation pretty much 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, heso said:

Coming out of the rough onto greens rolling at 15 is a different activity than ones rolling at a 10.

Can he do it? Of course, winged foot showed that he’s capable of just bombing it over the top of the course’s protection and since everyone was in the rough, it’s better to be longer and in the rough. 

We’ll find out in a couple days if Oakmont can be bombed over. Or if it’s is still a course that requires accuracy and smart play. 

I just think it's cool as fuck that he posted a full round like this and we can debate it 😂

You're probably right about hitting on to the green but he also left some putts short. Idk if he's more comfortable on a 10 or 14 vs. the field. 

I think if you're BDC you need either good iron play and good putting or great one or the other. He's always going to be a menace off the tee unless he's just whiffing shit. 

1 minute ago, MrX said:

Also fuck LIV because a dude like Bryson should be going up against Scottie and Rory consistently, not just 4 times a year

Yeah he needs to come back. He was winning a bunch before he left. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I haven't paid close attention, but it feels like Bryson has reined in his driver a bit and is hitting fairways more consistently these days. He's not a meathead bomber anymore. 

 

He’s currently below tour average in driving accuracy.

He hit 5/14 fairways in the final round last year, a number of them well into the waste area where he just kept coming up roses. 

Posted
1 minute ago, ztejas said:

I just think it's cool as fuck that he posted a full round like this and we can debate it 😂

You're probably right about hitting on to the green but he also left some putts short. Idk if he's more comfortable on a 10 or 14 vs. the field. 

I think if you're BDC you need either good iron play and good putting or great one or the other. He's always going to be a menace off the tee unless he's just whiffing shit. 

Yeah he needs to come back. He was winning a bunch before he left. 

Rahm too. It’s stupid the 10 best guys play a handful of tournaments together every year 

Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, heso said:

He’s currently below tour average in driving accuracy.

That's disingenuous. He only plays majors. 

And even if he is - being longer is typically better than being more accurate. 

Edited by ztejas
Posted
5 minutes ago, ztejas said:

I just think it's cool as fuck that he posted a full round like this and we can debate it 😂

You're probably right about hitting on to the green but he also left some putts short. Idk if he's more comfortable on a 10 or 14 vs. the field. 

I think if you're BDC you need either good iron play and good putting or great one or the other. He's always going to be a menace off the tee unless he's just whiffing shit. 

Yeah he needs to come back. He was winning a bunch before he left. 

I fully expect him to contend. The course will play even harder than it was that day, but if there’s anyone capable of muscling it out of the rough this week it’s him. 

I just think it’s a less than ideal way to attack this course. 

I hope he’s a least in contention on Sunday. I love rooting against him. 

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, heso said:

I hope he’s a least in contention on Sunday. I love rooting against him. 

Fuck yeah you do. 

He's good for the game. That video was awesome. The kids and casual fans fucking adore him. Maybe most of them are idiots; YMMV.

It feels like we have more personalities and stud players right now than we've had in a really long time. The Tiger era was kind of its own thing where you had everyone always behind one guy. Post that you had stars like Rory or Spieth or DJ or Brooks but they never seemed to overlap in a way that really raised the stakes or drama level. It never seemed to really coalesce or gain much momentum pitting any of them against each other. 

Now it feels like there is real shit on the line during every major - in a way that probably hasn't been felt since like the 70s. Rory is officially a megastar post his Masters win but Scottie is trying to be the next Tiger, basically, and steal his thunder. And yet Bryson is probably more popular than either and keeps trying to throw a wrench in shit. 

Not to mention all of the other awesome players. 

Idk. Feels like a super fun time for golf. We just need to get them all back on the same tour. 

Edited by ztejas
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Posted
9 minutes ago, ztejas said:

That's disingenuous. He only plays majors. 

And even if he is - being longer is typically better than being more accurate. 

The data isn’t just from the pga tour, it’s just the benchmark. It includes LIV data, dpwt, Asia tour, others. 

His driving accuracy, in LIV events and majors combined, is lower than the average driving accuracy of the players on the pga tour. And it’s currently the highest his accuracy has ever been. It’s still not good, it’s just not as bad as it used to be. 

From a strokes gained perspective, his game as a whole is the best it’s ever been. 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, heso said:

The data isn’t just from the pga tour, it’s just the benchmark. It includes LIV data, dpwt, Asia tour, others.

I'm just saying compared to guys that play on the PGA Tour full time his stats/numbers are going to be very noisy. Due to sample size, different events etc.

I'm not saying he's actually a more accurate driver - just that I don't really trust some of that stuff for Bryson the way I would trust it comparing two PGA guys. 

I mean he may be worse than what that data shows for all I know. 

Edited by ztejas
Posted

What is the actual definition of “par”? And how is it actually calculated?

I ask, because if the best players in the world cannot achieve “par” scores, then perhaps “par” is not being calculated correctly.

Posted
18 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

What is the actual definition of “par”? And how is it actually calculated?

I ask, because if the best players in the world cannot achieve “par” scores, then perhaps “par” is not being calculated correctly.

The number of shots a hole was designed to be reached in plus 2 putts. 

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Napoleon said:

What is the actual definition of “par”? And how is it actually calculated?

I ask, because if the best players in the world cannot achieve “par” scores, then perhaps “par” is not being calculated correctly.

Par is a construct to help the golf viewer keep better track of who is winning. That's all. 

How many strokes does it take you to complete 72 holes? That's all that matters. 

Posted
11 hours ago, MrX said:

It’s not an overly long course - check the DJ win. Ball strikers galore on the leaderboard but some wild guys like ZJ are up there late. I think a guy like Morikawa could contend 

Morikawa has the best course fit per data golf.  

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Posted

On the par discussion, the par 3 #8 is 290 yards on the card. Par 4 #17 is 310. It’s possible that at some point 8 this week 8 will play longer than 17. 

8 was designed to be a par 3 played with a wood and the entrance to the green is 25 yards wide. 17 is a risk/reward short par 4 and the green entrance is 9 yards wide. 

Last open 8’s scoring average was 3.3, 17’s scoring average was 3.8. 

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