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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Thanks Trump! I knew you’d do this, as you did in 2019. My industry overwhelmingly supported you. I got strange looks any time I was open about why I did not. This is why. 

In my experience, while folks in O&G tend to be pretty conservative, there seems to be a good amount that are more "Normie Republican" and not necessarily big fans of Trump. A lot depends on what specific O&G job you have, where you live, where you went to school...etc.

A land broker from Louisiana or a rig-hand in the Permian is way more likely to be MAGA than a Houston finance guy that went to UT undergrad or a title attorney that went to law school at UH. I know plenty of people on the professional side of the industry that are centrist Dems or even borderline leftists.

 

Edited by Storm the Field
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Posted
On 1/23/2025 at 11:44 AM, Storm the Field said:

 

The Saudis flipping a switch to dramatically increase production is the greatest urban legend in O&G. They’ve lied for decades on daily production and reserves because they have no oversight. I’ll bet all of their production decreases coincided with desperately needed maintenance projects. 
 

It’s all talk to move markets. Hopefully Trump knows they’re full of shit.

Any land brokers getting waxed right now due to wind permits getting canceled? My old broker bet pretty big on a renewable projects, and they were always operating paycheck to paycheck, so I’d imagine they’re feeling the pain.

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Posted
18 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The Saudis flipping a switch to dramatically increase production is the greatest urban legend in O&G. They’ve lied for decades on daily production and reserves because they have no oversight. I’ll bet all of their production decreases coincided with desperately needed maintenance projects. 
 

It’s all talk to move markets. Hopefully Trump knows they’re full of shit.

Any land brokers getting waxed right now due to wind permits getting canceled? My old broker bet pretty big on a renewable projects, and they were always operating paycheck to paycheck, so I’d imagine they’re feeling the pain.

Michael Jordan Lol GIF

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Posted

The timing is interesting. If Trump kills solar, and wind for at least 4 years in the middle of the AI Revolution, big tech will have to use natural gas. I think restarting nuclear plants is going to take too long. It could work long term, but they need power yesterday.

The infamously green NextEra is speaking publicly about ramping up their gas production, so they must see it coming. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The timing is interesting. If Trump kills solar, and wind for at least 4 years in the middle of the AI Revolution, big tech will have to use natural gas. I think restarting nuclear plants is going to take too long. It could work long term, but they need power yesterday.

The infamously green NextEra is speaking publicly about ramping up their gas production, so they must see it coming. 

 

that not enough power for AI

id be curious if they actually build some new nuke plants 

does a wind farm on land require a federal permit ?

Posted
5 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

that not enough power for AI

id be curious if they actually build some new nuke plants 

does a wind farm on land require a federal permit ?

If it’s federal land, yes. That’ll kill many new offshore wind projects and a lot of projects west and north of Texas. 
 

Wind’s margins are pretty thin. I doubt there are many, if any companies, with enough federal permits in inventory for 4 years. 

Posted
17 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Good for lower gasoline prices, but this is the oil barons thread, not the populist politics thread. 

Haha.  This is a common comment when talking to mom. "Gas prices are coming down! Oh, sorry, I forget we want high gas prices!" (Old people love to talk gas price and weather.)

Posted
19 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

And, to his credit, it’s working thus far. I doubt it can for 4 years, but he’ll fight hard to keep them low and blame other countries if he can’t.

"Thus far" meaning (checks notes), nine days.  Nothing to worry about.

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Posted (edited)
On 2/3/2025 at 7:59 PM, Rex Kramer said:

Heading down early tomorrow afternoon for a few Tuesday night receptions

Hah, not me. Boss was asking if anyone wanted to go a landman happy hour thing last night.  I emphatically declined.

I've got 2 separate parties this evening that will keep me busy from like six to midnight, and then my firm's party tomorrow night that typically runs pretty late. I'm going to be barely running on fumes by the time I lurch my way out of an Uber towards my front door tomorrow night. I might not survive to see the weekend if I started NAPE week on Tuesday.

Edited by Storm the Field
Posted (edited)

Thoughts and prayers. A guy I know finalized his divorce yesterday and is chasing it with going out for NAPE tonight.

No arrest, safe place to sleep would be huge wins. No Friday HR call is probably a bridge too far. 

Edited by billfromlaketravis
Posted

One of my least favorite annual traditions, I'm sitting in my office hungover, just staring at the clock until I go drive my truck downtown to pick up our shit from the NAPE booth and lug it back to our building. 363 days until next time.

Oh well, it beats actually having to go work a shift at GRB.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

He had overwhelming support in the industry. It staggers the fucking imagination. 

 

curious the saudis long game here 

has to be regain market share ?

Posted
14 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Doubtful. I’m not sure they can. I think they’ll spearhead continuance of cuts. Trump won’t be able to tamp down prices forever. US shale oil will start to irreversibly decline imminently. And demand isn’t going anywhere. 

I dunno about the shale…what with re-fracing technology improving over time the production in some benches could hold somewhat steadier after the initial decline. 
So I heard.

 

Posted
17 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

I dunno about the shale…what with re-fracing technology improving over time the production in some benches could hold somewhat steadier after the initial decline. 
So I heard.

 

Sure. But there's still a lot more capex required to refrac all those wells. There isn't an endless supply of good rock that can be drained economically at <$65 oil.

Rex doesn't know shit about fuck most of the time, but he's definitely been right on the twilight in the desert coming for the Permian/US Shale oil sooner than later.

Posted

So does total production fall off a cliff in the Permian or peak and start a long slow decline over the next 20 years?  Has it peaked already?  I mean, that's the age old question.

Posted (edited)

It's actually unbelievable unfathomable where we and the world would be now if not for the US shale boom beginning in the Barnett in the 90's.

Edited by CycleTex87
Posted
4 hours ago, Updawg said:

Just saw chevron is going to cut 15-20% of staff. Are things that bad or expected to be? Is this just them?

My read is that this isn't an industry-driven thing as much as it is a corporate-specific ting. IMO this has been a long time coming. There was a re-org last year that predated this and this was a corporate move to catch up to the other big integrated's on stock price, e/ps, valuations, margins, etc.

Posted
10 hours ago, Vegas64 said:

My read is that this isn't an industry-driven thing as much as it is a corporate-specific ting. IMO this has been a long time coming. There was a re-org last year that predated this and this was a corporate move to catch up to the other big integrated's on stock price, e/ps, valuations, margins, etc.

I agree. Plus, Chevron has officially moved its HQ from San Ramon to Houston. I imagine the 2000+ California-based employees will largely get wiped out.

They're stretching this out through the end of 2026 and will start offering buyout packages this Spring, so it's not a panic move b/c they're in big trouble or something, IMO.

Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Vegas64 said:

My read is that this isn't an industry-driven thing as much as it is a corporate-specific ting. IMO this has been a long time coming. There was a re-org last year that predated this and this was a corporate move to catch up to the other big integrated's on stock price, e/ps, valuations, margins, etc.

Shell is in the middle of something similar in E&P and I’ve heard that the same about BP…  (I’m guessing CVX buying Hess is part of their calculation on cutting bodies…)

Edited by Grimas
Posted
14 hours ago, Updawg said:

Just saw chevron is going to cut 15-20% of staff. Are things that bad or expected to be? Is this just them?

after record profits and $75,000,000,000 in stock buybacks, they just don't have any money left for staff. It would be bad business to not fire people!

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Posted

Crazy idea: the people with economic interest in an entity gets to allocate *their* capital in a way that aligns with their interest. 

Its amazing that the type of people crying about fascism are the ones who want to dictate how other people spend their money. 

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Posted
7 hours ago, Captainant said:

after record profits and $75,000,000,000 in stock buybacks, they just don't have any money left for staff. It would be bad business to not fire people!

Akshully, the buy backs were in part to buoy the technicals for the stock price/shareholders so that they could better compete with benchmarking peers (like the aforementioned IOCs), but there was STILL too much fat and redundancy in the organization. If you've ever worked in and around Chevron, you would understand.

Either way, this was McKinsey coming in and providing a blueprint to better compete with their peers for capital.

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Posted
4 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

BP and Shell need to shed people. And also to totally revamp their business away from renewables and ESG and placating to political idiots like this fucking guy:

 

Your vendetta against energy sources is always puzzling. If it's from a burned hydrocarbon or a solar panel, a watt is a watt. But then again you don't get your passive income from the sun shining or the wind blowing, so I can see why you find it distasteful. 

It funny how mad y'all get and then spin off into ad-hominem attacks when confronted with bad management. Keep up the good work, O&G finance bros. You've got the best years of your lives ahead of you, I'm sure. 

Posted
9 hours ago, Vegas64 said:

I need midstream was a crappy business and midstream companies were crappy to work with, but this was an interesting view (h/t Visual Capitalist):

💰 Ranked: U.S. Industries Where Companies Are Most Profitable

This graphic is really good because (1) tobacco fucking rocks to own (2) you never hear people say shit like “man philip morris is ripping me off on cigarettes and ipads are extortionate”.

but people do complain about grocery stores and consumer packaged goods and those guys only get single-digit margin. perception vs reality. 

Posted
On 2/14/2025 at 8:16 AM, Schulz2.0 said:

Questions by a non-O&G guy to you petro brains….this article was posted in one of the Ukraine threads.

What are the negative effects of having to cease production on the Russian wellheads and pipelines? 

If you have to temporarily stop extracting due to market forces (or drones hitting your facility) - what short term and long-term affects will this article’s facts (if true)  have on Russia’s oil industry if they don’t have a way to move their product?    

To be clear, I’m not talking about political ramifications. I’m talking about the technical aspects of the problems Russia may be experiencing because of the inability to ship product- whatever the cause?  IOW, is this actually a problem or just a nothing-burger article trying to get clicks?

 

Posted

There's technical issues and and costs to restart production wells after having shut them in. Might need testing, maintenance, etc. But unless there is severe demand impairment, they won't shut down the wells, they'll merely choke its production rate down. 

The bottleneck now due to damage in refining capacity and sanctioning of some tankers has a small marginal impact. On the upside IEA and Rystad (industry analysts) revised upwards expectation of global demands and OPEC+/Russia supply to meet it, despite what OPEC+ previously stated in December.

If the Ukraine war gets resolved - and looks like its trending that way - then you'd also expect much of the sanctioning pressures to subside.

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Posted
5 hours ago, 52-80 said:

There's technical issues and and costs to restart production wells after having shut them in. Might need testing, maintenance, etc. But unless there is severe demand impairment, they won't shut down the wells, they'll merely choke its production rate down. 

The bottleneck now due to damage in refining capacity and sanctioning of some tankers has a small marginal impact. On the upside IEA and Rystad (industry analysts) revised upwards expectation of global demands and OPEC+/Russia supply to meet it, despite what OPEC+ previously stated in December.

If the Ukraine war gets resolved - and looks like its trending that way - then you'd also expect much of the sanctioning pressures to subside.

Appreciate the info

Posted
18 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Questions by a non-O&G guy to you petro brains….this article was posted in one of the Ukraine threads.

What are the negative effects of having to cease production on the Russian wellheads and pipelines? 

If you have to temporarily stop extracting due to market forces (or drones hitting your facility) - what short term and long-term affects will this article’s facts (if true)  have on Russia’s oil industry if they don’t have a way to move their product?    

To be clear, I’m not talking about political ramifications. I’m talking about the technical aspects of the problems Russia may be experiencing because of the inability to ship product- whatever the cause?  IOW, is this actually a problem or just a nothing-burger article trying to get clicks?

 

Yeah, if (big if) they were to properly mothball everything then the short term effects on the wells and pipelines would be minimal.  IMO, a bigger issue if they have drastically cut back production for a year+ then I would worry about skilled labor leaving the industry and never coming back. That takes real time and money to replace.

Posted
19 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

It’s amusing how many not involved in the industry think fingers can be snapped and production will resume. That might be a little hyperbole, but I don’t think most people ever consider this and I’m including people at organizations like the IEA, EIA and API. 

That is not what I am saying, I was responding to the effect on their equipment and the reserves in the wells, and I already said that labor force could be a problem down the road. No snapping fingers here.

Posted
7 minutes ago, Dr Fear said:

I already said that labor force could be a problem down the road.

If papa Vlad tells young Sergei to get his back in the oil fields, young Sergei is going to get his ass back in the oil fields.

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Posted

This ability to just open the valves has always been attributed to the Saudis.  I know back in petroleum engineering days on the 40 acres, we looked at typical west Texas reservoir structure and Middle East reservoir structure, and they (ME) were an order of magnitude larger and more apt to flow.  I haven't studied it in detail or even big picture, but at some point in time even the Saudis' reservoirs have to deplete. 

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Posted

Balance of the month NG off almost a dollar today. More weakness tomorrow morning unless weather shifts colder overnight. Probably going to be choppy for a while but the market is structurally more balanced thanks to the weather. Higher floor this summer for sure.

Posted

Great timing, wx went cooler in the 11-15 day, then a pipeline issue got the algos all excited. 
 

Heading into a week of much less severe cold, but the inventory release on Thursday will provide much insight into how much salt inventories drew down, and what impact higher prices had on power burns. 
 

Should be fun one, keep arms and legs inside the ride at all times.

Posted

Baker Hughes is a weird company for me to evaluate. They are an OFS company, but also a...checks notes...tech company? They still have GE DNA? 

At any rate, they just unceremoniously canned their CFO in a pretty public and transparent way.

Posted

OFS companies try to call themselves tech companies to get a multiple boost despite having shit margins.  SLB is the king of self-promotion and blowing smoke up people's ass only to be exposed a few quarters later.

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Posted
16 hours ago, Vegas64 said:

Baker Hughes is a weird company for me to evaluate. They are an OFS company, but also a...checks notes...tech company? They still have GE DNA? 

At any rate, they just unceremoniously canned their CFO in a pretty public and transparent way.

 

their rotating equipment group is bloated 

Posted
3 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Holy shit on this gas market. I got two quotes, both with a $3.50 put. $6.10 call from Apr-Nov, and $8.63 call from Apr-Mar’26. Wow. 

Yeah, call skew is off the rails

Posted

Any hints of where the Chevron cuts are going to be? The bottom 20% of Chevron’s Land Department are probably better than many other companies’ landmen. I’d hate to see the job market get flooded. 
 

My company magically over performed this year despite the stock price dipping $10 and stagnating around $50. Bonuses are about the only thing they do well. Got a half point above the inflation rate on a raise. Yay. 

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