Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted
6 minutes ago, WBT said:

From Pallilo's post mortem podcast:

We scored 3 or fewer in 82 games.

We were 3-33 in the last 36 of those games.

 

Our sorcery in pitching development that turns jags into solid contributors sets a decent floor.  

Our failure to develop any cheap team controllable position players is really holding us back.  Our lineup just keeps getting older and jaggier without much hope in sight.

I have lost a lot of my excitement for Yainer as he can't seem to learn to take a pitch.  Cam should still improve but he was god awful in the 2nd half and finished with only 9 HRs.

We gave almost 1000 PAs to sub 80 OPS+ guys in Hummel, Dubon, Trammell, Rodgers, Chas, and Melton.  At least we dumped Singleton after 10 ABs I guess.

I don't know how it gets much better next year.  Pray Yordan stays healthy is probably the biggest potential difference maker.

After the very good trade deadline Dana had it should pretty clearly get better in that we shouldn't have to give hardly any of those 1000 ab's to guys that suck.  Think about it- if we had just had to give like 900 instead of 1000 we are in the playoffs pretty clearly.  Figure on next year having 500 or fewer AB's that go to guys that can't hit (if we stay reasonably healthy) and we are good. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

After the very good trade deadline Dana had it should pretty clearly get better in that we shouldn't have to give hardly any of those 1000 ab's to guys that suck.  Think about it- if we had just had to give like 900 instead of 1000 we are in the playoffs pretty clearly.  Figure on next year having 500 or fewer AB's that go to guys that can't hit (if we stay reasonably healthy) and we are good. 

In the playoffs this year yes.  But I want to get back to the 95ish win floor where we cruise to one of the byes.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

Assuming they make a move to replace Framber’s production (either with one true ace or with multiple quality arms) that doesn’t impact the big league roster elsewhere, the pitching staff will be at least as productive as it was this year, barring another insane injury bug.

Having Alvarez, Pena, and Paredes healthy for a full season adds 5-10 wins to this roster vs 2025.  Having Correa for a full season also probably adds another win or two.

So even before accounting for the possibility of a young player (Smith, Cole, Melton, Matthews, Blubaugh, Ullola, Pecko) breaking out, or Walker or Diaz rebounding, this team projects to be a dozen or so wins better than they were this season.

Aside from injuries, the only real downside to this roster is age related decline in Walker and Altuve, and those guys only combined for 3 wins this season, so it’s not like that’s a major risk.  If they replace Framber’s production and stay healthy, this is a 92-102 win team.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 2
Posted

I'm to the point with Alvarez that anything north of 30 HRs is going to be a big surprise. Simply a matter of health ...or lack thereof. Hope Diaz can get off to a solid start to help make up for any shortfall there.

Posted

My dream offseason (I think):

Out:  Yordan, Walker & Melton, Meyers, Framber, Chas, Dubon, Trammell, LMJ + Matthews (90M in 2025 dollars out).  Rationale- as a barely top 100 player Matthews has 15-20M in historical surplus value.  LMJ has 1 year 18M left.  Maybe he can be rehabbed.  Christin Walker's contract is probably about 10M upside down. That's about how much Surplus value Melton has. 

In:  Alonzo (3/120 or 8/200), Sale (3/100) or Cease (6/175), 6 top 100 prospects, Caratini (2/20), 1 comp pick.  (70M or so in).  Rationale:  ALonzo hits bombs and plays everyday. He's not as good a hitter as Yordan, but he plays everyday.  Sale is still filthy, Cease is filthy.  Yordan and Meyers you use to rebuild the farm system.  Caratini is perfect backup catcher/PH/part time DH and a good fit here. 

Resulting roster:

Diaz, Caratini, Alonso, Paredes, Pena, Correa, Altuve, Cole, Smith, Sanchez, Dezenzo, Urias, Whitcomb. Tell Smith he needs to learn to play CF and pull the ball in the air and he can become a star. If not he can platoon with Cole in CF, Sanchez/Dezenzo platoon in RF and Altuve mixes in at LF some.  No more 2b for altuve- that's paredes and Urias for the most part, very little LF for him- mostly DH. 

That's someting like 30 War on the position player side if they are all healthy. 

Pitching be fine if you add a Sale or Cease to what we already have. 
That team is under the Luxury tax and the farm is top 5 or 8 in baseball.  

  • Drool 1
Posted (edited)

Diaz has the same plate discipline as Altuve, with none of his ability to hit pitches out of the strike zone. 

Edited by kevwun
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I agree with all of this except for the stars and scrubs comment.

Stars and scrubs is in reference to an old Baseball Prospectus team building article and it’s more in reference to how to best optimize payroll across the team than as a judge of talent.  
 

We have a fairly mature roster with the veterans getting paid market, a few cost controlled assets with potentially large surplus values like Brown or maybe Smith,  and a few JAG’s that need to be replaced once they get expensive (Dubon, Meyers).  Dubon is probably worth it on a team with a lower payroll or less established veterans in the infield.  
 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Stars and scrubs is in reference to an old Baseball Prospectus team building article and it’s more in reference to how to best optimize payroll across the team than as a judge of talent.  
 

We have a fairly mature roster with the veterans getting paid market, a few cost controlled assets with potentially large surplus values like Brown or maybe Smith,  and a few JAG’s that need to be replaced once they get expensive (Dubon, Meyers).  Dubon is probably worth it on a team with a lower payroll or less established veterans in the infield.  
 

I always thought of the Angels of Trout and Ohtani as stars and scrubs. I always thought the Astros super power was they never played a bunch of (any really) scrubs during the golden years (in addition to developing pitching guys out of thin air). 

This year it got scrubby b/c of absurd amount of injuries, many of which are of the variety you wouldn't expect.  

Posted
43 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

My dream offseason (I think):

Out:  Yordan, Walker & Melton, Meyers, Framber, Chas, Dubon, Trammell, LMJ + Matthews (90M in 2025 dollars out).  Rationale- as a barely top 100 player Matthews has 15-20M in historical surplus value.  LMJ has 1 year 18M left.  Maybe he can be rehabbed.  Christin Walker's contract is probably about 10M upside down. That's about how much Surplus value Melton has. 

In:  Alonzo (3/120 or 8/200), Sale (3/100) or Cease (6/175), 6 top 100 prospects, Caratini (2/20), 1 comp pick.  (70M or so in).  Rationale:  ALonzo hits bombs and plays everyday. He's not as good a hitter as Yordan, but he plays everyday.  Sale is still filthy, Cease is filthy.  Yordan and Meyers you use to rebuild the farm system.  Caratini is perfect backup catcher/PH/part time DH and a good fit here.

Resulting roster:

Diaz, Caratini, Alonso, Paredes, Pena, Correa, Altuve, Cole, Smith, Sanchez, Dezenzo, Urias, Whitcomb. Tell Smith he needs to learn to play CF and pull the ball in the air and he can become a star. If not he can platoon with Cole in CF, Sanchez/Dezenzo platoon in RF and Altuve mixes in at LF some.  No more 2b for altuve- that's paredes and Urias for the most part, very little LF for him- mostly DH. 

kramer GIF

  • Haha 1
Posted
48 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

My dream offseason (I think):

Out:  Yordan, Walker & Melton, Meyers, Framber, Chas, Dubon, Trammell, LMJ + Matthews (90M in 2025 dollars out).  Rationale- as a barely top 100 player Matthews has 15-20M in historical surplus value.  LMJ has 1 year 18M left.  Maybe he can be rehabbed.  Christin Walker's contract is probably about 10M upside down. That's about how much Surplus value Melton has. 

In:  Alonzo (3/120 or 8/200), Sale (3/100) or Cease (6/175), 6 top 100 prospects, Caratini (2/20), 1 comp pick.  (70M or so in).  Rationale:  ALonzo hits bombs and plays everyday. He's not as good a hitter as Yordan, but he plays everyday.  Sale is still filthy, Cease is filthy.  Yordan and Meyers you use to rebuild the farm system.  Caratini is perfect backup catcher/PH/part time DH and a good fit here. 

Resulting roster:

Diaz, Caratini, Alonso, Paredes, Pena, Correa, Altuve, Cole, Smith, Sanchez, Dezenzo, Urias, Whitcomb. Tell Smith he needs to learn to play CF and pull the ball in the air and he can become a star. If not he can platoon with Cole in CF, Sanchez/Dezenzo platoon in RF and Altuve mixes in at LF some.  No more 2b for altuve- that's paredes and Urias for the most part, very little LF for him- mostly DH. 

That's someting like 30 War on the position player side if they are all healthy. 

Pitching be fine if you add a Sale or Cease to what we already have. 
That team is under the Luxury tax and the farm is top 5 or 8 in baseball.  

 

162 - 0 !!!!!!!

Posted

pasan ...

The managerial carousel has begun. 

Rocco Baldelli is out in Minnesota. 

Bob Melvin is out in San Francisco. 

Carlos Mendoza is staying in New York. 

Don Kelly is staying in Pittsburgh. 

Interims not yet decided: Tony Mansolino in Baltimore, Warren Schaeffer in Colorado and Miguel Cairo in Washington. 

Others to keep an eye on: Bruce Bochy in Texas, Brian Snitker in Atlanta, Joe Espada in Houston, Ron Washington in Los Angeles.

Posted
15 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I always thought of the Angels of Trout and Ohtani as stars and scrubs.

I think that was just happenstance and/or management futility.  
 

Most mature, good teams end up being stars and scrubs, even before the CBT, just because owners end up holding the line somewhere on payroll.  
 

The author (really dating myself, but it was probably Gary Huckabay) was commenting on how teams like the Pirates (and then Royals) never commit to one strategy or another and end up signing mid-tier free agents so they can finish 3rd in the AL Central.  You really don’t see that as much in the era of broadly adopted analytics even with minimum payroll requirements.  Regardless, Crane/Brown need to get creative on the margins because there’s not a lot of payroll flexibility outside of maybe moving Walker or someone else that retains upside.  

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Bob Melvin is out in San Francisco. 

 

2 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Others to keep an eye on: Bruce Bochy in Texas, Brian Snitker in Atlanta,

All three of these are obvious upgrades on a Dusty-esque year-to-year, let’s see how it goes contract.  
 

If Espada gets fired I’m going to particular enjoy the carnage in the Chandler Rome comment section as the general opinion there is he’s MOY.  
 

The Athletic comments are the absolute dumbest group of posters outside of every SEC school that isn’t us.  

  • Like 1
Posted
8 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

 

All three of these are obvious upgrades on a Dusty-esque year-to-year, let’s see how it goes contract.  
 

If Espada gets fired I’m going to particular enjoy the carnage in the Chandler Rome comment section as the general opinion there is he’s MOY.  
 

The Athletic comments are the absolute dumbest group of posters outside of every SEC school that isn’t us.  

I would love absolutely all of those 3 guys as managers. 

  • Hook 'Em 1

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...