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Posted
3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Whites make up less than 30% of Fort Bend County so it’s a great place for it.  

 

his district has to be gerrymandered

the ft bend mumbai mafia is strong

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

Doesn't this mean the R have only 1 more vote than the Democrats?

He won’t be leaving until January of 2027 if I read that right.  This Congressional term ends then   

I saw somebody saying there maybe more resignations coming and that they may be teeing up the Dems to go after Trump and Co before the midterms.  Troy could have helped that along.

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Posted
34 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

his district has to be gerrymandered

the ft bend mumbai mafia is strong

I was pretty bullish on Sri Kulkarni‘s chances in 2020 and was disappointed he didn’t fare better.  Maybe they don’t vote?

Posted
2 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I was pretty bullish on Sri Kulkarni‘s chances in 2020 and was disappointed he didn’t fare better.  Maybe they don’t vote?

 

 

IMG_5779.jpeg

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Posted
13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

He won’t be leaving until January of 2027 if I read that right.  This Congressional term ends then   

I saw somebody saying there maybe more resignations coming and that they may be teeing up the Dems to go after Trump and Co before the midterms.  Troy could have helped that along.

I've heard twice that the Rs will lose their majority before the session ends.  Hopefully they're right.

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Posted
Just now, tx 3 putt said:

 

 

IMG_5779.jpeg

Back in 2020 I did some research (I donated pretty heavily, at least for me, to Kulkarni) and it looked like a reasonable bet given district demographics.  
 

Kulkarni ran well behind Biden in Fort Bend so the presumption is he just didn’t connect as a candidate.  

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

I've heard twice that the Rs will lose their majority before the session ends.

I don’t buy it myself but I wouldn’t be shocked either. The house is completely demoralized, can’t trust Johnson, and the true believers like MTG have all eaten from the Tree of Knowledge and feel shame. 

If they lose or nearly lose the Tennessee special, get told to eat it and smile again on Epstein,  and Trump does whatever this is in Venuzuela it’s very easy to imagine more resignations, a full blown mutiny, or both. 

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Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:


 

One more thing on this- Behn isn’t an exceptional candidate. If this is close,  or inshallah she wins despite her shortcomings, that will say a lot. But I wouldn’t real too much into a beat along the lines of the natural break. Democrats are playing with house money in this one. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Posted
40 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

He won’t be leaving until January of 2027 if I read that right.  This Congressional term ends then   

I saw somebody saying there maybe more resignations coming and that they may be teeing up the Dems to go after Trump and Co before the midterms.  Troy could have helped that along.

Those chickenshits won’t clean up their own mess, and want dems to do it so they don’t have to face the wrath of the magats?

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Posted
42 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I was pretty bullish on Sri Kulkarni‘s chances in 2020 and was disappointed he didn’t fare better.  Maybe they don’t vote?

I think older Indians in particular are surprisingly Trumpy.

And lol at Nehls’ announcement. Make sure to throw in that completely pointless mention of Trump. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

If they lose or nearly lose the Tennessee special, get told to eat it and smile again on Epstein,  and Trump does whatever this is in Venuzuela it’s very easy to imagine more resignations, a full blown mutiny, or both. 

And several House Reps are not happy that the Russians are being coached on how to handle Trump by Trump’s envoy.

And there’s a WSJ article out about Trump trying to cut private deals with Russia that benefit him and his family/friends, that European intelligence agencies picked up on.

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-u-s-peace-business-ties-4db9b290?mod=hp_lead_pos7

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Posted

From Texas Tribune today: "Nehls’ announcement comes nine days before the Dec. 8 deadline for candidates to file for a place on the 2026 primary ballot, leaving a short window for potential successors to jump into the race. It also comes as the makeup of Texas’ 38 congressional districts remains in limbo, after a panel of federal judges blocked the state from using a new map gerrymandered to give Republicans up to five additional seats."

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Posted
1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

From Texas Tribune today: "Nehls’ announcement comes nine days before the Dec. 8 deadline for candidates to file for a place on the 2026 primary ballot, leaving a short window for potential successors to jump into the race. It also comes as the makeup of Texas’ 38 congressional districts remains in limbo, after a panel of federal judges blocked the state from using a new map gerrymandered to give Republicans up to five additional seats."

Wait, I thought the current Congressional term ran through January of 2027.

Does this mean Nehls was thinking he was going to lose?

Posted
9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Wait, I thought the current Congressional term ran through January of 2027.

Does this mean Nehls was thinking he was going to lose?

 

no idea what his new district might look like 

Posted
14 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Wait, I thought the current Congressional term ran through January of 2027.

Does this mean Nehls was thinking he was going to lose?

 

Nehls is the sixth Texas Republican to announce a departure this cycle, after Jodey Arrington of Lubbock, Morgan Luttrell of Magnolia, Michael McCaul of Austin, Wesley Hunt of Houston, and Chip Roy of Austin. Hunt and Roy are leaving office to run for U.S. Senate and Texas attorney general, respectively. 

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Posted
6 hours ago, linux said:

Here is per state polling of Trump

https://www.newsweek.com/map-donald-trump-approval-rating-each-state-10-months-11127534

Texas -6

Florida -6

Ohio -6

Iowa -8

Based on this polling and if we extrapolate to open senate seats what is the number expected?

Every R outside New England runs behind Trump, and that’s with him carrying them across during presidential elections. In off-year/midterms we should expect them to do even worse.

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Posted
4 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

Every R outside New England runs behind Trump, and that’s with him carrying them across during presidential elections. In off-year/midterms we should expect them to do even worse.

Seth Meyers Please GIF by Late Night with Seth Meyers

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Posted
On 11/29/2025 at 2:01 PM, tokamak said:

And lol at Nehls’ announcement. Make sure to throw in that completely pointless mention of Trump. 

"I visited personally with President Trump, and he assures me that nobody has ever sucked his dick and cupped his balls as well as I have."

Also....

I'd like to come up with the perfect name for a mediocre white man of no particular merit and zero intergrity.  Wadda ya got for me?

"Trever."

perfection-michael-fassbender.png

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Posted

AI response, founding fathers failed yet again in creating a slow moving body when democracy is in danger.

Based on the correlation between Donald Trump's approval ratings and the 2026 Senate races, here is the expected result.

 

Methodology

 

The projection relies on November 2025 polling data referenced in the provided Newsweek and Civiqs reports. The correlation logic is:

  • Trump Net Approval Positive: Republican Win.

  • Trump Net Approval Negative ("Underwater"): Democrat Win.

According to the data, President Trump's approval rating is "underwater" (negative) in most of the country, including 12 states he won in 2024 (specifically Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, alongside swing states like North Carolina). He retains positive approval in deep red states.


 

2026 Senate Race Predictions

 

There are 35 seats up for election (33 Class 2 seats + 2 Special Elections).

 

Republican-Held Seats (22 Seats Up)

 

  • Alabama (Tuberville): Trump Positive (+16%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Alaska (Sullivan): Trump Underwater (Net Negative). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • Arkansas (Cotton): Trump Positive (+14%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Florida (Special - Rubio's Seat): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • Idaho (Risch): Trump Positive (+23%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Iowa (Ernst): Trump Underwater (Net Negative). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • Kansas (Marshall): Trump Positive (Not listed as underwater). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Kentucky (McConnell): Trump Positive (+12%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Louisiana (Cassidy): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Maine (Collins): Trump Underwater (State won by Harris). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • Mississippi (Hyde-Smith): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Montana (Daines): Trump Positive (+17%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Nebraska (Sasse/Ricketts): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

  • North Carolina (Tillis): Trump Underwater (-8%). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • Ohio (Special - Vance's Seat): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • Oklahoma (Mullin): Trump Positive (+17%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • South Carolina (Graham): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

  • South Dakota (Rounds): Trump Positive (+16%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Tennessee (Hagerty): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Texas (Cornyn): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • West Virginia (Capito): Trump Positive (+27%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Wyoming (Lummis): Trump Positive (+34%). Prediction: Republican Hold

Result: Republicans win 15 races; Democrats flip 7 seats (AK, FL, IA, ME, NC, OH, TX).

 

Democrat-Held Seats (13 Seats Up)

 

  • Colorado (Hickenlooper): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Delaware (Coons): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Georgia (Ossoff): Trump Underwater (-14%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Illinois (Durbin): Trump Underwater (-29%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Massachusetts (Markey): Trump Underwater (-42%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Michigan (Peters): Trump Underwater (-15%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Minnesota (Smith): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • New Hampshire (Shaheen/Open): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • New Jersey (Booker): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • New Mexico (Luján): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Oregon (Merkley): Trump Underwater (-36%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Rhode Island (Reed): Trump Underwater (-40%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Virginia (Warner): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

Result: Democrats win all 13 defended races.


 

Final Senate Tally

 

  • Seats Not Up for Election (65 Total):

    • Republicans: 31

    • Democrats/Independents: 34

  • 2026 Election Results (35 Total):

    • Republicans: 15 Wins

    • Democrats: 20 Wins (13 Holds + 7 Flips)

Projected Senate Composition:

  • Democrats: 34 (Holdovers) + 20 (Wins) = 54

  • Republicans: 31 (Holdovers) + 15 (Wins) = 46

Outcome: Using the correlation to Trump's polling, the Democrats would regain control of the Senate with a 54-46 majority.

 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, linux said:

AI response

Probably not too far off though.  No Dems are going to lose their Senate seats, and the Epstein stuff and invasion of Venezuela are going to depress turnout amongst the less faithful MAGA/moderates/old schoolers, not to mention the Russia stuff.

When Republicans in Congress are calling out Trump for those three things, and the chambers are fighting each other, and republicans are resigning or announcing they are or changing offices, he’s losing power and control of the GOP.

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Posted
31 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

Trump -14 in Georgia? Ho Lee Fuk that is baaaad

Is it surprising though? They elected Democrats to the Senate.  A Jewish guy and a Black guy.

Posted
4 hours ago, linux said:

AI response, founding fathers failed yet again in creating a slow moving body when democracy is in danger.

Based on the correlation between Donald Trump's approval ratings and the 2026 Senate races, here is the expected result.

 

Methodology

 

The projection relies on November 2025 polling data referenced in the provided Newsweek and Civiqs reports. The correlation logic is:

  • Trump Net Approval Positive: Republican Win.

  • Trump Net Approval Negative ("Underwater"): Democrat Win.

According to the data, President Trump's approval rating is "underwater" (negative) in most of the country, including 12 states he won in 2024 (specifically Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, alongside swing states like North Carolina). He retains positive approval in deep red states.


 

2026 Senate Race Predictions

 

There are 35 seats up for election (33 Class 2 seats + 2 Special Elections).

 

Republican-Held Seats (22 Seats Up)

 

  • Alabama (Tuberville): Trump Positive (+16%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Alaska (Sullivan): Trump Underwater (Net Negative). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • Arkansas (Cotton): Trump Positive (+14%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Florida (Special - Rubio's Seat): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • Idaho (Risch): Trump Positive (+23%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Iowa (Ernst): Trump Underwater (Net Negative). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • Kansas (Marshall): Trump Positive (Not listed as underwater). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Kentucky (McConnell): Trump Positive (+12%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Louisiana (Cassidy): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Maine (Collins): Trump Underwater (State won by Harris). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • Mississippi (Hyde-Smith): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Montana (Daines): Trump Positive (+17%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Nebraska (Sasse/Ricketts): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

  • North Carolina (Tillis): Trump Underwater (-8%). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • Ohio (Special - Vance's Seat): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • Oklahoma (Mullin): Trump Positive (+17%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • South Carolina (Graham): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

  • South Dakota (Rounds): Trump Positive (+16%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Tennessee (Hagerty): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Texas (Cornyn): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • West Virginia (Capito): Trump Positive (+27%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Wyoming (Lummis): Trump Positive (+34%). Prediction: Republican Hold

Result: Republicans win 15 races; Democrats flip 7 seats (AK, FL, IA, ME, NC, OH, TX).

 

Democrat-Held Seats (13 Seats Up)

 

  • Colorado (Hickenlooper): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Delaware (Coons): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Georgia (Ossoff): Trump Underwater (-14%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Illinois (Durbin): Trump Underwater (-29%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Massachusetts (Markey): Trump Underwater (-42%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Michigan (Peters): Trump Underwater (-15%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Minnesota (Smith): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • New Hampshire (Shaheen/Open): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • New Jersey (Booker): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • New Mexico (Luján): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Oregon (Merkley): Trump Underwater (-36%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Rhode Island (Reed): Trump Underwater (-40%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Virginia (Warner): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

Result: Democrats win all 13 defended races.


 

Final Senate Tally

 

  • Seats Not Up for Election (65 Total):

    • Republicans: 31

    • Democrats/Independents: 34

  • 2026 Election Results (35 Total):

    • Republicans: 15 Wins

    • Democrats: 20 Wins (13 Holds + 7 Flips)

Projected Senate Composition:

  • Democrats: 34 (Holdovers) + 20 (Wins) = 54

  • Republicans: 31 (Holdovers) + 15 (Wins) = 46

Outcome: Using the correlation to Trump's polling, the Democrats would regain control of the Senate with a 54-46 majority.

 

If Texas flips I feel like 5 or 6 more will as well 

Posted
9 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

If Texas flips I feel like 5 or 6 more will as well 

I would be surprised.

In 2019/20, was there this much infighting? I remember Republicans leaving Congress, remember some sniping at one another, but don't remember anybody directly calling out Trump.

And shit, when Trump loses Laura Loomer, MTG, Lauren Boebert, and Nick Fuentes...something is in the water.

Posted
4 hours ago, linux said:

AI response, founding fathers failed yet again in creating a slow moving body when democracy is in danger.

Based on the correlation between Donald Trump's approval ratings and the 2026 Senate races, here is the expected result.

 

Methodology

 

The projection relies on November 2025 polling data referenced in the provided Newsweek and Civiqs reports. The correlation logic is:

  • Trump Net Approval Positive: Republican Win.

  • Trump Net Approval Negative ("Underwater"): Democrat Win.

According to the data, President Trump's approval rating is "underwater" (negative) in most of the country, including 12 states he won in 2024 (specifically Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, alongside swing states like North Carolina). He retains positive approval in deep red states.


 

2026 Senate Race Predictions

 

There are 35 seats up for election (33 Class 2 seats + 2 Special Elections).

 

Republican-Held Seats (22 Seats Up)

 

  • Alabama (Tuberville): Trump Positive (+16%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Alaska (Sullivan): Trump Underwater (Net Negative). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • Arkansas (Cotton): Trump Positive (+14%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Florida (Special - Rubio's Seat): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • Idaho (Risch): Trump Positive (+23%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Iowa (Ernst): Trump Underwater (Net Negative). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • Kansas (Marshall): Trump Positive (Not listed as underwater). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Kentucky (McConnell): Trump Positive (+12%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Louisiana (Cassidy): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Maine (Collins): Trump Underwater (State won by Harris). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • Mississippi (Hyde-Smith): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Montana (Daines): Trump Positive (+17%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Nebraska (Sasse/Ricketts): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

  • North Carolina (Tillis): Trump Underwater (-8%). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • Ohio (Special - Vance's Seat): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • Oklahoma (Mullin): Trump Positive (+17%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • South Carolina (Graham): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

  • South Dakota (Rounds): Trump Positive (+16%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Tennessee (Hagerty): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Texas (Cornyn): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip

  • West Virginia (Capito): Trump Positive (+27%). Prediction: Republican Hold

  • Wyoming (Lummis): Trump Positive (+34%). Prediction: Republican Hold

Result: Republicans win 15 races; Democrats flip 7 seats (AK, FL, IA, ME, NC, OH, TX).

 

Democrat-Held Seats (13 Seats Up)

 

  • Colorado (Hickenlooper): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Delaware (Coons): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Georgia (Ossoff): Trump Underwater (-14%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Illinois (Durbin): Trump Underwater (-29%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Massachusetts (Markey): Trump Underwater (-42%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Michigan (Peters): Trump Underwater (-15%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Minnesota (Smith): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • New Hampshire (Shaheen/Open): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • New Jersey (Booker): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • New Mexico (Luján): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Oregon (Merkley): Trump Underwater (-36%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Rhode Island (Reed): Trump Underwater (-40%). Prediction: Democrat Hold

  • Virginia (Warner): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold

Result: Democrats win all 13 defended races.


 

Final Senate Tally

 

  • Seats Not Up for Election (65 Total):

    • Republicans: 31

    • Democrats/Independents: 34

  • 2026 Election Results (35 Total):

    • Republicans: 15 Wins

    • Democrats: 20 Wins (13 Holds + 7 Flips)

Projected Senate Composition:

  • Democrats: 34 (Holdovers) + 20 (Wins) = 54

  • Republicans: 31 (Holdovers) + 15 (Wins) = 46

Outcome: Using the correlation to Trump's polling, the Democrats would regain control of the Senate with a 54-46 majority.

 

And they would not do a single thing with it to benefit the country because they have no spine. I vote for these cowards because the opposite is people in love with fascism. What a country we have.

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Posted
Just now, UpperWestside said:

And they would not do a single thing with it to benefit the country because they have no spine. I vote for these cowards because the opposite is people in love with fascism. What a country we have.

Primary all corpocrats, without pity and without remorse.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I would be surprised.

In 2019/20, was there this much infighting? I remember Republicans leaving Congress, remember some sniping at one another, but don't remember anybody directly calling out Trump.

And shit, when Trump loses Laura Loomer, MTG, Lauren Boebert, and Nick Fuentes...something is in the water.

Its the hispanic hemorrhage. it appears that all the GOP gains since 2016 has evaporated among  hispanics.

Posted
Just now, linux said:

Its the hispanic hemorrhage. it appears that all the GOP gains since 2016 has evaporated among  hispanics.

Wait, are people who voted for the Leopards Eating Faces party, in fact having their faces (or those of their family or friends) eaten by leopards?

I actually have a theory that this is partly why he wants to invade Venezuela instead of Mexico. While there are many with Venezuelan blood in the US, there's not that many, so they can kill a bunch of them and probably be okay with non-Venezuelans in next year's elections. Start seeing a bunch of Mexicans being killed by American Marines and soldiers, and shit gets dicey with next year's election.  The other reason that we don't invade Mexico is that the cartels will probably go apeshit along the border and most importantly of all, Mexico has 130 million people. It would work out about as well as...Russia fully invading Ukraine.

Posted
11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Wait, are people who voted for the Leopards Eating Faces party, in fact having their faces (or those of their family or friends) eaten by leopards?

I actually have a theory that this is partly why he wants to invade Venezuela instead of Mexico. While there are many with Venezuelan blood in the US, there's not that many, so they can kill a bunch of them and probably be okay with non-Venezuelans in next year's elections. Start seeing a bunch of Mexicans being killed by American Marines and soldiers, and shit gets dicey with next year's election.  The other reason that we don't invade Mexico is that the cartels will probably go apeshit along the border and most importantly of all, Mexico has 130 million people. It would work out about as well as...Russia fully invading Ukraine.

I thought about that, but he went all Nazi on Mexicans as well.

Posted
1 hour ago, linux said:

I thought about that, but he went all Nazi on Mexicans as well.

But we don’t have military snipers knocking off Mexicans trying to cross the border, or helicopters shooting them for that matter.  He treats them like shit and they are disappearing under ICE detention, but the military hasn’t killed over 80 of them like we did with Venezuelans  

I think it’s probably a mix of Epstein files and oil, but it’s interesting that Venezuela is now the #1 threat in the world to the United States.



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