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Posted
On 2/6/2025 at 1:22 PM, PTINS said:

The strike on the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant is "kind of a big deal." The mother of all fuel-air bombs.

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Damaging a Russian facility that makes transportation fuels, and money, is a prime target. Astrakhan is a world class Gas Processing Facility, with a capacity of ~ 1 BCF/day (Billion FT3/day) comparable to some of the larger facilities in the US, producing ~  9,000 tons/day of sulfur, ~ 5% of current world output. 9,000 tons/day is about 90 rail cars, or a train over a mile long.

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Gas from the USSR's Astrakhan field is one of the most difficult ever to be processed.

Acidic components comprise more than 38% of the composition, including 14% by vol carbon dioxide. "Acid Gas" refers to impurities that are acidic, namely Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and Hydrogen Sulfide (H2S), and other related sulfur compounds.  The sulfur compounds is what gives off the rotten egg smell associated with natural gas.

38% acid gas implies a very large % of H2S, possibly as high as 20+%.  Hydrogen Sulfide is lethal at concentrations of 500 parts per million (ppm).  Anything over 1,000 ppm (0.1%) is drop dead lethal. 

 Per Russian officials, 

 "Dear citizens, this morning the city was covered by a cloud of natural gas, which has a specific smell that appears after processing. I would like to warn Astrakhan residents that in the coming days before the plant returns to its scheduled operating mode, such situations are possible."

 "Natural gas is not hazardous to health in open spaces, and the air quality will return to normal in the near future."

As Jenny shouted when she sensed danger, "Run, Forrest! Run!

Processing gas includes removing the impurities, especially the ones that are dangerous and make the gas unsalable. Pure methane is odorless, and processed gas may have a faint sulfur smell due to the acceptable levels of impurities. The smell at Astrakhan is from the unprocessed gas being flared (bad) or vented (worse). 

If the gas is burned at high rates, incomplete combustion and lethal byproducts (sulfuric acid/acid rain) are probable.

If the gas is leaking unburned, that is a worst case scenario. It is lethal, and explosive.

It would be extremely unusual to have a flare system capable of flaring the full capacity of the plant. It appears that each of the well sites has a flare system. 

Per the screen shot from Google, you can see the 3 sets of flare stacks northeast of the plant, where gas would be burned in a controlled setting, with the flame at the top, ~ 200 feet above the ground.  Compare that to the picture in the OP with the uncontrolled fireballs at ground level. 🙂 !!!  This area is ~ 65 feet below sea level; very different than the high plains of West Texas.

Please note the size of the facility, the "process area" is ~ 1 mile long. That's a big f*cking gas plant.

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The plant is expected to be offline for some time, which makes for difficult choices. In the US, the plant would be down for a long time, given the potential threat to the general public. At least the "How did it happen?" part of the fire investigation is pretty easy. 

The smart move would be to shut-in he production, and not produce the gas. But shutting in the gas means shutting down the oil production. Depending on many related factors, shutting in the wells may damage the wells to the point of decreasing production, long term.

Newsweek - Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant - Russians Told Not to Panic as Attack on Gas Plant Unleashes Putrid Smell

 

Additional info related to Ukraine's similar strike in February 2025. 

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Posted
5 hours ago, PTINS said:

Whatever Ukraine damaged in February, it took Russia 6 months to get the plant back online.  With Ukraine's bigger and better drones and targeting accuracy, this may have been a haymaker. All it takes is a spark, or combing your hair, and ...

Sounds like they’re really starting to dial things in. I’m guessing they’ve got analysts who are looking at the whole picture. Like what regions are affected, what facilities downstream are affected, etc.  Someday this will be a niche strategy game where your goal is to cripple the Russian economy by taking out various parts of their oil and gas infrastructure.

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Posted
3 hours ago, flatdawgs said:

Hey @PTINS - I just wanted to thank you for sharing the depth of your knowledge in a way that makes sense to O&G laypeople. It really adds to my understanding of what Ukraine is trying to do and why it is (or isn't) effective. Stuff like this continues to make this the best thread on the board and it's much appreciated. 

Most welcome.

I was hired into a Management Development Program to find engineers that could run a company that was 100 years old, in 1975. It was all about training and development. My tangent was facilities planning and commercial development. 

Believe it or not, the opportunity to share information about O&G to some sweet thing you come across doesn't happen as often as you would think.

When it does, don't.  

I learned that right out of the gate. I graduated 3 months after 3 Mile Island and at the start of Iranian Revolution, and went to work for a regulated piece of the oil industry that was in danger of making too much money. They damn sure weren't going to stop making it. Hard for a new hire to justify the 300% bump in gasoline prices while I'm buying you drinks.  "You don't save the company money on your expense account, you save them money by doing a good job."

Jack Issel: Exactly what is our side of the Allenville story?
Max Landsberger: Were losing money hand over fist.
Jack Issel: That's not true.
Max Landsberger: No, but it's our side of the story. Lesson No.55: there are no truths, only stories.

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 I did find a better line.  "I've got coc..." 

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Posted

 

Quote

Ukraine has added glide bombs to its list of military ordnance, enabling Ukraine to send modified dumb bombs up to 100km away. This likely won’t alter the outcome of the war in Ukraine, but the democratization of this technology is setting off alarm bells in the US.

 

Joint Direct Attack Munitions were the bread-and-butter for the US military, maintaining a multi-decade monopoly on the precision strike technology...but all of that is changing. Now that Ukraine and Russia both have this tech in their hands, it's only a matter of time before it appears everywhere else.

 

This is yet another sign of the US stepping back from its role as global protector; meaning American strategic primacy is coming to an end.

 

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Posted

Denmark is going to start shooting them down apparently, as long as it's not over a populated area. A lot of people don't understand that they aren't shooting them down now partially because they want to see where they return to. I've seen people speculate that it's Russian subs launching and recovering them, but there's so much civilian commercial traffic flowing through that area, I wouldn't be surprised if it's a cargo ship. I don't see the Russians wanting to get their subs that close in.

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Posted

The US Air Force has signed a $26 million contract with Lockheed Martin, which will be an important step in supporting Ukraine's F-16 fighter jet acquisition program. Under this agreement, which will last until May 2029, special technical instructions tailored to Ukraine's unique needs and conditions will be developed, and the training program for ground personnel will be modified. These documents, better known as "technical manuals," are crucial for the safe and effective operation, maintenance, and repair of the aircraft. They will take into account the specifics of local infrastructure, limitations on deploying aircraft at operational airfields, and other unique features, continuing the transition from outdated Soviet-era aviation to more modern Western fighters.

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Posted
17 minutes ago, elfenix said:

Senseless...

And yet still arousing.....

You know what you don't see in those photos? A fucking tugboat following along, ready to tow our carrier into the nearest port when it breaks down. Looks like Russia is going to scrap their last carrier.  Wild to think that 2 years ago, they took 1,500 sailors off of their lone carrier and sent them to Ukraine as infantry.

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Posted
22 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And yet still arousing.....

You know what you don't see in those photos? A fucking tugboat following along, ready to tow our carrier into the nearest port when it breaks down. Looks like Russia is going to scrap their last carrier.  Wild to think that 2 years ago, they took 1,500 sailors off of their lone carrier and sent them to Ukraine as infantry.

 

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Constantine says that they are closing many post offices in cities across Russia.   In a city that would have five post offices, they now have one or two and the others have been shut down.  he notes that post offices fall under the budget that would receive its funds from fuel sales.   Since Russia is running out of money and still needs money to wage war, something has to give, and what is gives are services and access to infrastructure that help civilians.   Because Russia does not care about peasants.

One thing I did not know is that the old pensioners who are not techno types still go to the post office every month to collect their rubles.   Russian post offices act like sort of a state bank to give people their pension money.  He says because of the reduction of post offices, all of these old people have to stand in long lines at the remaining post offices - often subject to the weather as they stand outside, holding their quality built Russian walkers.   He says that this is the type of thing that will actually piss people off.   Vehicle owners are only allowed 2 liters of gas a week because of widespread gas shortages, and now some angry relative has to use some of that scarce gas driving granny to the post office across town.    

In the last day or so, Julia Davis in one of her Russia Media Monitor YouTube videos showed the pro-Putin Talking Heads fighting with their guests - one who pointed out that in 100 something days, the 3 day special military operation will have lasted longer than the Great Patriotic war against Germany.  This exchange took place on widely watched Russian state TV.  

The host’s head exploded and he started arguing with him. The guest reminded the host that the host had claimed back in 2022 that Ukraine would be taken within a week.   The host said “ we could have if we had wanted to.”  That is a level of negative news and pushback that I have not seen before.   Whether it is significant is anybody’s guess.

 

Edited by Gatorubet
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Posted
3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Denmark is going to start shooting them down apparently, as long as it's not over a populated area. A lot of people don't understand that they aren't shooting them down now partially because they want to see where they return to. I've seen people speculate that it's Russian subs launching and recovering them, but there's so much civilian commercial traffic flowing through that area, I wouldn't be surprised if it's a cargo ship. I don't see the Russians wanting to get their subs that close in.

Forgive my ignorance, but are these drones the kind of thing someone could just order from China and start flying them around to cause havoc?  Like say, an agent who's been living in Denmark a while?

 

Posted
2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Telling them in Moscow to knock it the fuck off.

Want to get them to knock it the fuck off?  Do what Turkey did, and shoot one of those fuckers down.  You only need to shoot down one to make your point.  No need to escalate beyond that, shooting down one just tells em "I fucking meant it, don't do it again."

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Posted
Just now, Brisketexan said:

Want to get them to knock it the fuck off?  Do what Turkey did, and shoot one of those fuckers down.  You only need to shoot down one to make your point.  No need to escalate beyond that, shooting down one just tells em "I fucking meant it, don't do it again."

I don’t know if Putin wants to risk the loss of face - Russia pushed things too far with the drones and now NATO is all but looking for an excuse to shoot one down. The talking heads on Russia state TV couldn’t explain why a Russian plane was shot down in NATO territory if it happened, and why a Russian pilot (or his body) is being held by NATO forces.  I don’t even know they would dare mention it on state TV - if gas rationing is really kicking in, and budgets are drying up, the Russians are going to ask why Russian planes were in NATO airspace if it happens.

But Lavrov says NATO has declared war.

 

Posted
2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Sounds like Denmark figured out where the drones were coming from and returning to.

 

 

Okay, hear me out.....my idea for a cost-effective and fun way to deal with the threat.  Reach out to all the dudes flying old warbirds in the Commemorative Air Force and whatnot.  Anything with guns.  Get em fitted and loaded up, and head over to Denmark.  When the drones show up, scramble a few P-51s, sling some cheap .50 cal rounds at the drones, and start giving those dudes some kills to paint on the side of their bird.

Imagine that you're an American with the money to fly a P-51 as a hobby.  Now, you have the chance to fly it in combat.  Fuck yeah you're going over there.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Okay, hear me out.....my idea for a cost-effective and fun way to deal with the threat.  Reach out to all the dudes flying old warbirds in the Commemorative Air Force and whatnot.  Anything with guns.  Get em fitted and loaded up, and head over to Denmark.  When the drones show up, scramble a few P-51s, sling some cheap .50 cal rounds at the drones, and start giving those dudes some kills to paint on the side of their bird.

Imagine that you're an American with the money to fly a P-51 as a hobby.  Now, you have the chance to fly it in combat.  Fuck yeah you're going over there.

The problem is that they’d be potentially sending out a lot of rounds into residential areas.  
 

But
I Love It Idea GIF by CBS

Posted
2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The problem is that they’d be potentially sending out a lot of rounds into residential areas.  
 

But
I Love It Idea GIF by CBS

Sure, you wait until you have clearance from control to shoot - hold off until the target is in the clear, then have at it.

Shit, lease some Super Tucanos from Brazil.  You only need a few, they've gotta be cheaper to operate than jet interceptors, and are better suited to tackling lower-speed targets, right?

Posted
5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

@blacklab may know more about this side of things, but this is either tied to the stuff in Denmark, or the Neptune Strike exercise (the USS Ford and NATO ships mentioned are a part of it).  No way to tell.

https://sfn.nato.int/newsroom/news-archive/2025/nato-launches-third-iteration-of-neptune-strike-across-europe-4

A carrier strike group typically includes a sub but one is not always present. 
 

All three Northern Fleet Yasen submarines at sea as U.S. carrier group sails outside northern Norway

 Summarize

As of August 25, the Yasen-class submarines Severodvinsk, Arkhangelsk and Kazan are not present at the Nerpicha base in Zapadnaya Litsa. British media report about NATO warplanes searching for a Russian submarine in the waters near the US Navy’s USS Gerald R. Ford strike group.

27 August 2025 - 14:30
 

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At least a dozen specialist NATO warplanes have since Sunday been launched to search for a Russian submarine suspected of sailing near the US Navy carrier, newspaper Express reported.

Sorties were made by British, American and Norwegian P-8 Poseidon maritime surveillance aircraft from bases in Scotland, Iceland and Norway, the newspaper reported. 

Norway has five P-8 Poseidon based at Evenes air base inside the Arctic Circle. 

It is not immediately clear where the USS Gerald R. Ford strike group is located on Wednesday, but the on-going training is taking place along the west coast of Norway, likely somewhere outside the Lofoten archipelago in the north. 

"For security reasons, the Armed Forces do not wish to provide further details about the upcoming activity at this time," Norway's military reported.

None of the NATO countries around the North Sea have commented on the possible hunt for a Russian submarine. 

Satellite images studied by the Barents Observer show that as of August 25, all three multi-purpose submarines of the Yasen- and Yasen-M class belonging to the Russian Northern Fleet are out at sea. 

The Severodvinsk (K-573), the Kazan (K-561) and the Arkhangelsk (K-564) all have Nerpicha as their home base. The base is located in the Litsa fjord some 60 kilometres from Russia's border with Norway and there are no submarines present at the piers. 

After August 25, clouds have made it impossible to study satellite images from the naval bases along the coast of the Kola Peninsula.  

The Yasen-M class submarines are the most quiet of all Russian submarines. They are armed with both torpedoes and a set of cruise missiles.

U.S. - Norway military cooperation

"Practicing our interoperability in the High North environment ensures a secure and stable region through defense against malign influence in critical waterways," a Facebook post by the U.S. carrier group said. 

The Navy added: "We are showcasing our collective deterrence and commitment to defend the Euro-Atlantic region."

The two Norwegian warships Thor Heyerdal (frigate) and Maud (supply ship) are sailing together with the carrier group. On Wednesday, Norwegian F-35s flew side by side with F/A-18 from the air wing of USS Gerald R. Ford

Last November, the U.S. carrier group Harry S. Truman exercised with the Norwegians in the waters outside the Lofoten archipelago. 

Earlier in August this year, three U.S. air force B-1B Lancer bombers were deployed to Ørland air base in Norway.

The increase in U.S. military training with Norway comes ahead of the massive strategic exercise Zapad-2025 (West-2025) that Russia and its puppet ally Belarus are about to kick off, likely in mid-September.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Sure, you wait until you have clearance from control to shoot - hold off until the target is in the clear, then have at it.

Shit, lease some Super Tucanos from Brazil.  You only need a few, they've gotta be cheaper to operate than jet interceptors, and are better suited to tackling lower-speed targets, right?

I thought the USAF was gonna buy a bunch of those from Brazil, or are they too pissed off at the Orange guy?

Posted
17 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Okay, hear me out.....my idea for a cost-effective and fun way to deal with the threat.  Reach out to all the dudes flying old warbirds in the Commemorative Air Force and whatnot.  Anything with guns.  Get em fitted and loaded up, and head over to Denmark.  When the drones show up, scramble a few P-51s, sling some cheap .50 cal rounds at the drones, and start giving those dudes some kills to paint on the side of their bird.

Imagine that you're an American with the money to fly a P-51 as a hobby.  Now, you have the chance to fly it in combat.  Fuck yeah you're going over there.

Way too pricey.  The Uke's already have an answer.  Get an open cockpit two seater and just give the guy in the back a shotgun.

https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-russia-drone-hunting-e2fea5fc?utm_source=newsshowcase&utm_medium=gnews&utm_campaign=CDAqDwgAKgcICjDW3MkBMOfLFTDb0owE&utm_content=rundown&gaa_at=g&gaa_n=ASWzDAhl55o_A3r-so9TfxItjMmXDjn-46rqokjg100a8SLSiHzFEe4rNZesLFrD9OkYnorHnWWqQIT1n7EOjTHi67oJv1RLxQ%3D%3D&gaa_ts=68ac9d48&gaa_sig=rmxT1n1szNT6rdt7-EGxRTh5f-QSDTIika38_syE4LhiAjZCTMNl4PqSaNtBKvXDm9dOuXviMsal3QeAPILI-Q%3D%3D

 

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Posted
23 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

@PTINS or those following Konstantin might find this interesting - it appears to be happening ( I wondered about photoshop but looks legit)

 

Not supplying gas to Asian ethnicity Eastern Russians is one thing.

Moscow not having gasoline indicates a huge problem.  Because if Moscow now isn’t getting gas, Siberia is sure as shit not getting any.

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Posted
22 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Sure, you wait until you have clearance from control to shoot - hold off until the target is in the clear, then have at it.

Shit, lease some Super Tucanos from Brazil.  You only need a few, they've gotta be cheaper to operate than jet interceptors, and are better suited to tackling lower-speed targets, right?

Fuck, just set up a meeting at the Olney Dairy Queen with the AgTractor guys, trade the herbicide/insecticide tank, and its full weight, for some armor and wing attachment points. An SUU-23 20mm gun pod under each wing shooting 6k rounds per minute, each. I bet an armored AgTractor would be under $1.5 million. This wouldn't necessarily be ideal for drones, but it sure would be fun for strafing Russian trenches at the front lines. A poor man's A-10, from a non-military defense contractor.

CHIEF

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Posted
31 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Okay....idea....help fund Ukrainian defense by letting "tourists" pay to go up on such flights.

How many of y'all here would pay $5k to go up on a "use a shotgun to shoot down Russian drones from an open cockpit aircraft" ride?  SIGN. ME. UP.  Get a good semi-auto shotgun with a large magazine, and let 'er rip.  Sure, make us go through some training, show some actual shooting skill -- I mean, these missions actually do matter.

Ukraine gets cash, "volunteers" fighting for it, and Russian drowns blasted.  Win-win-win.

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