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2019 Surly bowl pick em

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1 minute ago, LonghornSean said:

And yet, even if you pick every game remaining correctly, you get nothing cuz you're not playing for money.

 

And I'm curious, do people who don't change the confidence numbers at all do so intentionally, or just forget?

I’m guessing most forget. I compare it to people who don’t play more aggressive when the blinds are up and their stack is low in a poker tourney. It’s almost impossible to win that way. 

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12 minutes ago, Bone3421 said:

Didnt look at that but i have every game left over 19pts....but yeah need to only miss very little rest of the way

There’s a reason casinos never go broke(with one notable exception).  They know that LSU has a much higher chance of beating OU than Tennessee does of beating Indiana. That information advantage is tough to overcome. 

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And yet, even if you pick every game remaining correctly, you get nothing cuz you're not playing for money.
 
And I'm curious, do people who don't change the confidence numbers at all do so intentionally, or just forget?
I just didnt want to deal with...i use to but just straight picked this year

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1 hour ago, Irieguy said:

Points scored and points remaining are king.

And for the tenth(ish?) fucking year running, those poopdicks at ESPN still haven't incorporated any sort of "total points remaining" or "maximum possible score" listing on the scoreboard to actually communicate relevant and meaningful information. 

Lazy, ignorant assholes. 

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And for the tenth(ish?) fucking year running, those poopdicks at ESPN still haven't incorporated any sort of "total points remaining" or "maximum possible score" listing on the scoreboard to actually communicate relevant and meaningful information. 
Lazy, ignorant assholes. 

PM spystud

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28 minutes ago, Prepuce of Doom said:

And for the tenth(ish?) fucking year running, those poopdicks at ESPN still haven't incorporated any sort of "total points remaining" or "maximum possible score" listing on the scoreboard to actually communicate relevant and meaningful information. 

Lazy, ignorant assholes. 

Max points shows up on mobile but only if you have your phone sideways. 

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8 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:


PM spystud

Skipper is the favorite to win. I’ll update my spreadsheet later if I don’t get lazy. 

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So... fuck all of yall supposed UT fans. You guys complain about UT being all about the money. That UT should support the fans instead of the money. Then who did you fuckers bet on? You guys are trash. Congrats. 

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I picked aggy to win as well.  My picks, in no way, reflect who I want to win.  I create a spreadsheet with a formula and don't allow my feelings to interfere.

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8 minutes ago, Jameslaw121 said:

So... fuck all of yall supposed UT fans. You guys complain about UT being all about the money. That UT should support the fans instead of the money. Then who did you fuckers bet on? You guys are trash. Congrats. 

The guilt I felt while watching Texas kick ass is more punishment than any person deserves. 

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Y'all should be ashamed. Only 19 of 45 picked Texas to win. And there were only 10 of us that put it at 30+ confidence. I hereby grant the 10 of us an additional 50 points for being proper fans. By my math, I think that should put me comfortably in the top 20. I'm so good at this game!

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On 12/31/2019 at 9:31 PM, BigOrange1 said:

not all of us picked utah!!

That was a strong move.  Also strong to keep Oregon where you did.  I had them at a similar confidence range and chickened out and dropped it back to 8 points.    I was damn close to either picking Texas or at least moving it to one of my lowest games left but decided to ride with Utah and cheer for horns with no remorse if horns win ended up costing me in this (which it may very well do).  

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i changed my pick to texas about 5 minutes before kickoff.  if fact, i'm in two of these contests and have entered the same exact picks/point level for every game except for the alamo bowl because i only changed my pick to texas in this contest and forgot to in the other.

additionally, auburn losing really helped me as well.  i picked them, but not nearly as high as a lot of you.

still a long way to go though.  i am very nervous about these remaining 6 games.

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1 hour ago, BigOrange1 said:

i changed my pick to texas about 5 minutes before kickoff.

I did the same thing last year and that either won it for me or got 2nd I think.  Can't remember exactly.  But I changed it to Texas walking to the Superdome for the game after a lot of liquid confidence on Bourbon St.

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On 12/31/2019 at 9:25 PM, Jameslaw121 said:

So... fuck all of yall supposed UT fans. You guys complain about UT being all about the money. That UT should support the fans instead of the money. Then who did you fuckers bet on? You guys are trash. Congrats. 

Hey guys - just wanted to apologize. I might have been a tad inebriated when I posted this......

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6 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

damn, my entry is #693 on espn.com.

I'm pretty sure I lost this last night when Indiana choked but at least I sniffed having a chance this year.

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On 1/3/2020 at 7:11 PM, BigOrange1 said:

damn, my entry is #693 on espn.com.

Yea, definitely nice work there!!!  Top 99.9%.

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611e129a7730f50ea0511 

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Posted (edited)

nailing picks 25-41 is insane. up to 237. 

 

Skipper had a hell of run too. wow. 1/2 is going to come down to the championship 

Edited by MNLonghornFUKM

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On 1/6/2020 at 10:31 PM, MNLonghornFUKM said:

nailing picks 25-41 is insane. up to 237. 

 

Skipper had a hell of run too. wow. 1/2 is going to come down to the championship 

i legitimately have no fucking clue who to pick in the championship game.

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On 1/9/2020 at 8:41 AM, BigOrange1 said:

i legitimately have no fucking clue who to pick in the championship game.

 

Looks like we're both locked in.  Go Clemson!   I would much rather be in your shoes though - I definitely would have taken LSU if I had the lead.

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On 1/9/2020 at 8:41 AM, BigOrange1 said:

i legitimately have no fucking clue who to pick in the championship game.

Should have listened to me. 

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i decided to just go with who i thought would win rather than trying to guess who skipper would pick.  if i had picked clemson and he had picked lsu and lsu won i would have kicked myself.

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14 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

i decided to just go with who i thought would win rather than trying to guess who skipper would pick.  if i had picked clemson and he had picked lsu and lsu won i would have kicked myself.

Oh I definitely considered picking LSU thinking you might assume I was picking Clemson LOL.

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8 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

also, this makes the game way more interesting as i now have a reason to cheer for one team over the other.

Stick with your 1st answer. That was at least believable. Irrational but believable.  You could have had this locked it up. Skipper couldn’t risk picking LSU. And if you wanted a rooting interest you could have made a separate bet. After you locked up this win. 

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2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Oh I definitely considered picking LSU thinking you might assume I was picking Clemson LOL.

No. You are too smart for that. I’ve seen your pick history. Well done. 

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5 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

Stick with your 1st answer. That was at least believable. Irrational but believable.  You could have had this locked it up. Skipper couldn’t risk picking LSU. And if you wanted a rooting interest you could have made a separate bet. After you locked up this win. 

look guy i've never heard of, i'm sorry it personally offended you that i ignored your unsolicited advice.  i hope you're able to move on with your life.

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1 minute ago, BigOrange1 said:

look guy i've never heard of, i'm sorry it personally offended you that i ignored your unsolicited advice.  i hope you're able to move on with your life.

Not offended. Just think you made a mistake. I was in the same situation as you 3 years ago. I picked Bama and lost. I showed you that Skipper picked Clemson in 2018. I told you who he was going to pick. I learned from my mistake. You didn’t. 

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Congrats to BigOrange1! Well played by Skipper too but Lawrence was just too inaccurate to win. 

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3 hours ago, Irieguy said:

Not offended. Just think you made a mistake. I was in the same situation as you 3 years ago. I picked Bama and lost. I showed you that Skipper picked Clemson in 2018. I told you who he was going to pick. I learned from my mistake. You didn’t. 

That was the year I won by picking Clemson! Love the game theory when it comes down to the last game. 

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Nice work BigOrange.   The only regret I have was picking f'n Okie St. and it cost me the win as I definitely would have been on LSU if I had the lead.  That was literally a last second switch  before kickoff and primarily fueled by not wanting to root for aggy.

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Way to go BigOrange.

And a shout out to little doomlet for putting it on his old man too.

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On 1/13/2020 at 8:01 PM, BigOrange1 said:

look guy i've never heard of, i'm sorry it personally offended you that i ignored your unsolicited advice.  i hope you're able to move on with your life.

Pretty sure this dude shows up every year on this thread trying to tell people how they played this wrong or how their strategy sucks. He also has never won himself and managed to finish 42nd out of 45 this year. 

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