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2020 House election thread


cactusflinthead

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7 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I can’t help but think that Kay Granger is going to be retiring soon. Tarrant County is changing fast. And she’s getting up there in years.


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She's right behind Carter in age.  I could see her and Carter both calling it quits soon enough.  

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22 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I can’t help but think that Kay Granger is going to be retiring soon. Tarrant County is changing fast. And she’s getting up there in years.


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That's my bet. 

All of these retirements in safer districts are going to draw resources and candidates that aren't going somewhere else.

I don't know if there's a Chet Edwards that can run and win a heavy R+ district, but I sure hope someone will make the effort to draw fire. 

Edited by cactusflinthead
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52 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I can’t help but think that Kay Granger is going to be retiring soon. Tarrant County is changing fast. And she’s getting up there in years.


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She's ranking on Approps.  It's about the only minority job where you get any run.

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4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Gohmert (66) + R+25
Wright (66) R+9
Brady (64) R+28
Granger (76) R+18
Thornberry (61) R+33
Weber (66) R+12
Williams (69) R+11
Carter (77) R+10
Babin (71) R+26

These are some of the most likely because (1) they're getting up there in age; (2) they don't want to spend their final years in the minority, (3) their seats are relatively safe and (4) they're too old to potentially be introducing themselves to new voters in 2022 after redistricting 

Brady and granger are wishful thinking in my opinion. We will probably be stuck with them until they die in office.

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Democratic retirement - CA-53 Susan Davis (D) retires.  She's 75, so no big surprise.

D+38 seat that gave Clinton 64.5%, Harris 60%, Newsom 64.9% and Feinstein 54.9%.  She won her race 69.1-30.9 in 2018. Extremely safe.  She's been in Congress for 19 years, doesn't chair any committees and her seat is safe. 

Edited by Js1
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25 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Retirement day 

 

The bad thing about this....... isn’t Liz Cheney the #2 republican now?

Wyoming has an opening in the senate and I hope she takes it. I shudder at the possibility of a speaker Cheney from Wyoming. What a horrible speaker she would be. Wyoming is still in the 1930’s.

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3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

The bad thing about this....... isn’t Liz Cheney the #2 republican now?

Wyoming has an opening in the senate and I hope she takes it. I shudder at the possibility of a speaker Cheney from Wyoming. What a horrible speaker she would be. Wyoming is still in the 1930’s.

Seniority is not leadership. He’s #2 in terms of current tenure. She’s #3 in leadership. Don Young and Sensenbrenner have served since before Reagan was president. 

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Seniority is not leadership. He’s #2 in terms of current tenure. She’s #3 in leadership. Don Young and Sensenbrenner have served since before Reagan was president. 

Ahh yes....

 

I actually like don young tho. He’s the rare republican who votes for marijuana reform bills. 

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early voting has ended for special election house race NC09. Here’s an update.

Quote

Heavily gerrymandered NC09 encompasses two large, affluent, mostly suburban and usually Republican-friendly counties - Union and a small wedge of Mecklenburg - plus six small, rural, mostly majority-minority counties.

Mecklenburg and Union are the key to Republicans' historical advantage in NC09. Their large white Republican majorities enabled gerrymandering GOP legislators to lump rural Democratic-friendly counties into NC09 without risking the GOP's hold on this congressional seat, thus keeping those Democratic votes out of neighboring districts where they might have netted Democrats a fourth seat in the House.

But Mecklenburg/Union's Republican advantage slipped badly this year. Democrats improved their share in Mecklenburg from 45% of its early voters in 2018 to 49% this year, and in Union from 36% to 39%. If this turnout trend continues into election day, Republican Dan Bishop is doomed.

Democrats also enjoyed improved Early Voting share performance in Robeson, Anson, Scotland, and Bladen counties (the latter was the site of 2018's GOP-funded election fraud scheme), held their ground in Richmond County, and lost a tiny bit of their share in just one county (Cumberland, where Democratic voters still remained a healthy majority of early voters).

Republicans' slippage in Mecklenburg and Union counties is bad news not only for Dan Bishop, but likewise for Donald Trump. They're the heart of NC09's white, suburban, college-educated, conservative soccer mom territory - the demographic that was Trump's salvation in 2016. Bishop's death-grip embrace of Trump has made this election a referendum on his presidency, and a not-insignificant number of suburban Republicans are sitting this referendum out this year rather than vote for another Trump-enabler.

Looks like bad news for trump and his ilk is on the way. Now we wait and see if Trump and his minions can save this guy. Republicans usually win this seat by 10 points so I think the outcome will be viewed as a negative by the GOP no matter what happens here. 

 

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The North Carolina gerrymanders have spread out the Republican vote very thinly and if an R+8 PVI district goes easily to the Democrats in 2019 their will be a lot of seats flip to the Democrats in 2020. at the very extreme it could conceivably go from 10-3 Republican to 10-3 Democratic since only 3 districts are R+12 or better. It will also be interesting to see how close NC3 is, although the Democrats are not putting up as big a fight there.

NC1    D+17    Democratic
NC2    R+7    Republican
NC3    R+12    Vacant
NC4    D+17    Democratic
NC5    R+10    Republican
NC6    R+9    Republican
NC7    R+9    Republican
NC8    R+8    Republican
NC9    R+8    Vacant
NC10    R+12    Republican
NC11    R+14    Republican
NC12    D+18    Democratic
NC13    R+6    Republican

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36 minutes ago, RayDog said:

The North Carolina gerrymanders have spread out the Republican vote very thinly and if an R+8 PVI district goes easily to the Democrats in 2019 their will be a lot of seats flip to the Democrats in 2020. at the very extreme it could conceivably go from 10-3 Republican to 10-3 Democratic since only 3 districts are R+12 or better. It will also be interesting to see how close NC3 is, although the Democrats are not putting up as big a fight there.

NC1    D+17    Democratic
NC2    R+7    Republican
NC3    R+12    Vacant
NC4    D+17    Democratic
NC5    R+10    Republican
NC6    R+9    Republican
NC7    R+9    Republican
NC8    R+8    Republican
NC9    R+8    Vacant
NC10    R+12    Republican
NC11    R+14    Republican
NC12    D+18    Democratic
NC13    R+6    Republican

I still can’t believe how rigged that state is. I’m really hoping the democrats can get someone to the table for the next map. That state should be 8-5 at worst given how close the elections are in NC.

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16 hours ago, RayDog said:

The North Carolina gerrymanders have spread out the Republican vote very thinly and if an R+8 PVI district goes easily to the Democrats in 2019 their will be a lot of seats flip to the Democrats in 2020. at the very extreme it could conceivably go from 10-3 Republican to 10-3 Democratic since only 3 districts are R+12 or better. It will also be interesting to see how close NC3 is, although the Democrats are not putting up as big a fight there.

NC1    D+17    Democratic
NC2    R+7    Republican
NC3    R+12    Vacant
NC4    D+17    Democratic
NC5    R+10    Republican
NC6    R+9    Republican
NC7    R+9    Republican
NC8    R+8    Republican
NC9    R+8    Vacant
NC10    R+12    Republican
NC11    R+14    Republican
NC12    D+18    Democratic
NC13    R+6    Republican

if the seat was going to flip, shouldn't it have flipped in 2018?  is the gerrymander broken in a way now it wasn't then?

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2 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

if the seat was going to flip, shouldn't it have flipped in 2018?  is the gerrymander broken in a way now it wasn't then?

The 2018 result was R+0.4 - 905 votes separated the two.  And there was a lot of voting irregularity, including ballots potentially discarded or tampered with. 

R+8 seat, D+8.6 election.  R+0.4 result is not an unusual result.  

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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The 2018 result was R+0.4 - 905 votes separated the two.  And there was a lot of voting irregularity, including ballots potentially discarded or tampered with. 

R+8 seat, D+8.6 election.  R+0.4 result is not an unusual result.  

i get NC07.  I'm just saying this thought that you'll see a ton of flips doesn't scan to me.

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2 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

i get NC07.  I'm just saying this thought that you'll see a ton of flips doesn't scan to me.

Well by all polling measures, the suburbs are getting way more hostile to Republicans, even in the past year.

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2 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Don’t really like that guy to be honest. He’s just about as close to a repub as you can get.

A Democrat in a SAFE D seat (he won it by 68) that has an A record from the NRA.

GTFO.  Even at the prez level, its D+20. 

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

A Democrat in a SAFE D seat (he won it by 68) that has an A record from the NRA.

GTFO.  Even at the prez level, its D+20. 

Has he had a primary challenger recently?

 

normally, I frown on Bernie and AOC challenging democrat incumbents and jeopardizing some of our seats, but I’m all for this one.

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6 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

i get NC07.  I'm just saying this thought that you'll see a ton of flips doesn't scan to me.

Recall that in 2018 Republican enthusiasm was down near 50% and then the Kavanaugh hearings it went up to 65%, essentially the same as for Democrats.

Right now Republican enthusiasm is way down and we could easily see a 5% or more swing from 2018 results in 2020 unless the Republicans manufacturer a way to boost enthusiasm.

There is also a 3% change out in votes every 2 years from olds dying and youngsters taking their place. And this is a presidential year that will increase Democratic turnout.

Edited by RayDog
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49 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Has he had a primary challenger recently?

 

normally, I frown on Bernie and AOC challenging democrat incumbents and jeopardizing some of our seats, but I’m all for this one.

The Justice Democrats called him out as someone they wanted to primary many months ago. I assume they are trying to find a candidate.

It went over poorly with mainstream Democrats so, while they originally said they would identify other Democrats that need primarying they have been quiet. I published a list of corporate house  Democrats on dailykos and that did not go well even there.

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46 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Recall that in 2018 Republican enthusiasm was down near 50% and then the Kavanaugh hearings it went up to 65%, essentially the same as for Democrats.

Right now Republican enthusiasm is way down and we could easily see a 5% or more swing from 2018 results in 2020 unless the Republicans manufacturer a way to boost enthusiasm.

There is also a 3% change out in votes every 2 years from olds dying and youngsters taking their place. And this is a presidential year that will increase Democratic turnout.

It’s the thing I keep going back to.

democrats need to hope and pray that Ginsburg makes it. A Supreme Court vacancy will significantly help republicans across the board and trump as well. 

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Here is a partial list of mostly corporate Democrats in the house by the amount of corporate PAC money they accepted to their 2018 campaigns (not their PACS) and the percentage of corporate donations (source:opensecrets). That is followed by the ratings and grade from progressivepunch which essentially tells how often they voted Republican. I think progressives should try to primary all of them.

 Name

District

Corp. PAC

PAC %

Rating

Grade

Richard Neal

MA-1

$2,501,791

76.33%

2.60

C

Steny Hoyer

MD-5

$2,163,715

60.92%

-5.48

F

Ron Kind

WI-3

$1,683,793

78.05%

-4.77

F

Frank Pallone

NJ-6

$1,637,066

67.22%

3.99

B

James Clyburn

SC-6

$1,428,608

86.34%

-1.08

D

Terri Sewel

AL-7

$1,324,628

81.63%

-16.96

F

Kurt Schrader

OR-5

$1,322,953

70.99%

-19.70

F

Scott Peters

CA-52

$1,274,573

56.20%

-31.84

F

Mike Thompson

CA-5

$1,150,309

61.43%

-0.95

D

Ben R Lujan

NM-3

$1,120,126

68.67%

-2.66

D

Linda Sanchez

CA-38

$1,100,788

77.99%

11.76

A

Josh Gottheimer

NJ-5

$1,094,326

24.28%

-35.34

F

Cheri Bustos

IL-17

$1,072,622

41.77%

-24.70

F

Derek Kilmer

WA-6

$1,045,221

51.78%

-14.06

F

Henry Cuellar

TX-28

$1,030,377

66.63%

-44.44

F

Suzan DelBene

WA-1

$1,004,698

53.22%

-10.72

F

John Larson

CT-1

$987,993

70.94%

2.48

C

Collin Peterson

MN-7

$961,513

79.59%

-30.80

F

Jim Himes

CT-4

$937,673

48.28%

-12.69

F

Ami Bera

CA-7

$933,047

40.79%

-27.39

F

David Scott

GA-13

$921,249

94.12%

-15.45

F

Ed Perlmutter

CO-7

$893,069

63.84%

-15.66

F

Cedric Richmond

LA-2

$892,392

77.90%

-5.14

F

Jim Costa

CA-16

$892,340

58.10%

-40.27

F

Stephanie Murphy

FL-7

$866,738

46.95%

-32.67

F

Nancy Pelosi

CA-12

$866,700

26.58%

10.31

A

Raul Ruiz

CA-36

$808,925

39.07%

-30.67

F

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47 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Here is a partial list of mostly corporate Democrats in the house by the amount of corporate PAC money they accepted to their 2018 campaigns (not their PACS) and the percentage of corporate donations (source:opensecrets). That is followed by the ratings and grade from progressivepunch which essentially tells how often they voted Republican. I think progressives should try to primary all of them.

 Name

District

Corp. PAC

PAC %

Rating

Grade

Richard Neal

MA-1

$2,501,791

76.33%

2.60

C

Steny Hoyer

MD-5

$2,163,715

60.92%

-5.48

F

Ron Kind

WI-3

$1,683,793

78.05%

-4.77

F

Frank Pallone

NJ-6

$1,637,066

67.22%

3.99

B

James Clyburn

SC-6

$1,428,608

86.34%

-1.08

D

Terri Sewel

AL-7

$1,324,628

81.63%

-16.96

F

Kurt Schrader

OR-5

$1,322,953

70.99%

-19.70

F

Scott Peters

CA-52

$1,274,573

56.20%

-31.84

F

Mike Thompson

CA-5

$1,150,309

61.43%

-0.95

D

Ben R Lujan

NM-3

$1,120,126

68.67%

-2.66

D

Linda Sanchez

CA-38

$1,100,788

77.99%

11.76

A

Josh Gottheimer

NJ-5

$1,094,326

24.28%

-35.34

F

Cheri Bustos

IL-17

$1,072,622

41.77%

-24.70

F

Derek Kilmer

WA-6

$1,045,221

51.78%

-14.06

F

Henry Cuellar

TX-28

$1,030,377

66.63%

-44.44

F

Suzan DelBene

WA-1

$1,004,698

53.22%

-10.72

F

John Larson

CT-1

$987,993

70.94%

2.48

C

Collin Peterson

MN-7

$961,513

79.59%

-30.80

F

Jim Himes

CT-4

$937,673

48.28%

-12.69

F

Ami Bera

CA-7

$933,047

40.79%

-27.39

F

David Scott

GA-13

$921,249

94.12%

-15.45

F

Ed Perlmutter

CO-7

$893,069

63.84%

-15.66

F

Cedric Richmond

LA-2

$892,392

77.90%

-5.14

F

Jim Costa

CA-16

$892,340

58.10%

-40.27

F

Stephanie Murphy

FL-7

$866,738

46.95%

-32.67

F

Nancy Pelosi

CA-12

$866,700

26.58%

10.31

A

Raul Ruiz

CA-36

$808,925

39.07%

-30.67

F

Lujan is probably going to be the next senator from NM

peterson is the most endangered democrat. Occupying an R+12 seat in Minnesota 

 

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1 hour ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 This is all just to make sure nothing goes haywire at the 11th hour, correct? It seemed to me very clearly that he was going to win. 

I'm gonna play it like there's a chance we could lose until we win. I'm not out there on the ledge with Brisket, but I can see it from here.

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2 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 This is all just to make sure nothing goes haywire at the 11th hour, correct? It seemed to me very clearly that he was going to win. 

Gotta fight until the very last second. Republicans always seem to win Election Day voting, we have to hope that McCready has built a sizable lead.

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I can't believe this NC9 hasn't been a bigger story.  If democrats had pulled off some of the most blatant voter fraud in memory,  FoxNews and the rest of the right wing propaganda machine would've made household names of everyone involved.  Special election is happening today and it's barely a story anywhere.  

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1 hour ago, Bojack said:

I can't believe this NC9 hasn't been a bigger story.  If democrats had pulled off some of the most blatant voter fraud in memory,  FoxNews and the rest of the right wing propaganda machine would've made household names of everyone involved.  Special election is happening today and it's barely a story anywhere.  

 

The seat should just be given to McCready, considering why we are having this special election. What a joke. 

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13 hours ago, Js1 said:

Lujan is probably going to be the next senator from NM

peterson is the most endangered democrat. Occupying an R+12 seat in Minnesota 

 

So long as he keeps doing the work of Big Sugar, and chairing the House Ag Committee, he's not going down. 

Here's a long profile from Minnpost last month about his complicated relationship with the sugar beet industry and other sectors of Big Sugar. 

https://www.minnpost.com/national/2019/08/sweet-deal-sugar-industry-organizes-new-super-pac-to-re-elect-collin-peterson/

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1 hour ago, GopherRock said:

So long as he keeps doing the work of Big Sugar, and chairing the House Ag Committee, he's not going down. 

Here's a long profile from Minnpost last month about his complicated relationship with the sugar beet industry and other sectors of Big Sugar. 

https://www.minnpost.com/national/2019/08/sweet-deal-sugar-industry-organizes-new-super-pac-to-re-elect-collin-peterson/

This.  Peterson has survived the tea party waves in 2010 and 2014, plus Trump in 2016.  That seat is his as long as he wants it (and Minnesota doesn't lose a CD and he gets redistricted out of a job).

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Not sure if this has gotten much pub outside of Wisconsin, but Scott Walker has been hitting the airwaves to promote the batshit crazy idea of his 25-year old son running for Sensenbrenner's seat. Like his father before him, Matt Walker has never had a real job, unless interning for Paul Ryan counts. It's a Republican stronghold so he'd probably win if he runs but merciful Christ...

 

 

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15 minutes ago, 406W30th said:

Not sure if this has gotten much pub outside of Wisconsin, but Scott Walker has been hitting the airwaves to promote the batshit crazy idea of his 25-year old son running for Sensenbrenner's seat. Like his father before him, Matt Walker has never had a real job, unless interning for Paul Ryan counts. It's a Republican stronghold so he'd probably win if he runs but merciful Christ...

 

 

Scott Walker is a loser. I really hate that guy.  He is a huge huge advocate of partisan gerrymandering and Wisconsin GOP are some of the nastiest people you will ever find anywhere. They win elections with 45% of the vote ( or less) because of the heavily gerrymandered map and have a massive chip their shoulder while doing it.

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4 hours ago, Bojack said:

I can't believe this NC9 hasn't been a bigger story.  If democrats had pulled off some of the most blatant voter fraud in memory,  FoxNews and the rest of the right wing propaganda machine would've made household names of everyone involved.  Special election is happening today and it's barely a story anywhere.  

It will become a big story if McCready were to win. More congressional GOP would view it as a very bad sign for next year and retire. GOP fund raising would probably take a hit as well. They need this race 100x more then democrats do. That’s why it would be so freaking sweet if McCready wins.

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