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The Robert Mueller Investigation


Hugo Stiglitz

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19 minutes ago, kevwun said:

China is bribing the President of the United States in broad daylight.  Does anyone even care?

Anytime someone says that there is nothing to impeach the president for... emoluments. Should have happened already.

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The elevator pics from Trump Tower on Dec 12, 2016 of Qatari Al-Rumaihi meeting with Cohen and Flynn have received a lot of publicity due to Avenatti.  The speculation is that this was a key meeting in the sale of Rosneft stock to Trump Co in exchange for Russia sanctions being lifted.

But check this pic also taken at the TT lobby on Dec 12, 2016 published in this Vox article:

That appears to be George Papadopoulos behind Cohen's right shoulder

GettyImages_944230920__1_.jpggeorge-papadopoulos-tnh_sq-e6c72a51e2876

That would make TWO individuals present at Trump Tower that significant day in the Trump/Russia saga who have pleaded guilty and are fully cooperating with Mueller.  And to be clear, they struck a plea deal w Mueller not because they have very little to offer, but because they have everything to offer.

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Mueller's investigation has a scope based on the Rosenstien memo. So far we have seen evidence of potential fraud, foreign bribery, money laundering, obsruction. I'm going to add that I suspect conspiracy if not treason. Then there is the emoluments stuff which many ethics experts see clear violations of and the state of maryland is already suing for. No one is going to do anything because either they are complicit or they lack the spine. 

I don't know about you but seeing this blatant corruption continue is abhorrent to me. I want to protest in the streets and yell at the spineless assholes now. We can't let this assault on our replublic stand. Nothing is over until we say it is over.

Was it over when the Germans bombed pearl harbor? It ain't over now, 'cause when the going gets tough...the tough get going. Who's with me? Let's  go! Come on!

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As soon as Mueller releases his report, and if his case is strong, I think that you will see swift reaction but public and political. If he has two inside informants, and can connect the dots on the paper trail, it should be a compelling case.  I'd like to see the report release yesterday, but if there is a grand conspiracy scheme of the scale that some here suggest, reaching all the way into the broad financing of the GOP, I think that Mueller is going to have to take his time to make it air tight.  I think Mueller is likely also dealing with some curveballs, such as the Russian company actually showing up and demanding a day in court, that's throwing him off schedule. Or he is uncovering so much tangential sleeze that is taking some time to run it all down. If thats the case, I think he should issue a Russia/Trump-centric report as interim findings and run the rest down subsequently. I'd like to see the Russia report issued ASAP, so that the information and the GOP's response is on the table prior to the election, but I don't think that's gonna happen.    

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54 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

The best people.  No collusion, nothing to see here, a nothingburger with cheese and mayo.

Honestly jimmy, what have you seen from the Trump administration that leads you to believe that this group of characters were able to orchestrate a vast international conspiracy involving Qatar, Russia, a major gas conglomeration, broad swathes of the RNC and GOP, coordination of social media targeting, and hacking efforts?  These people are not capable of having a basic staff meeting without fucking it up. I have no doubt that there is plenty of stink to uncover when you dig around Trump and the Trump organization. Wouldn't be surprise if Manafort brought some stink with him to the campaign. Not surprised if Stone has plenty of stink on him. But some of the conspiracy theories sound like shit out of fantasy land.  Hugo is right, if this conspiracy shit is on point, it will be the biggest political scandal in the history of the United States, and nothing else will come close.  If the conspiracy theories are right, heads need to roll. Lot's of them. All of them. And it needs to be put on PPV. 

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3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Honestly jimmy, what have you seen from the Trump administration that leads you to believe that this group of characters were able to orchestrate a vast international conspiracy involving Qatar, Russia, a major gas conglomeration, broad swathes of the RNC and GOP, coordination of social media targeting, and hacking efforts?  These people are not capable of having a basic staff meeting without fucking it up. I have no doubt that there is plenty of stink to uncover when you dig around Trump and the Trump organization. Wouldn't be surprise if Manafort brought some stink with him to the campaign. Not surprised if Stone has plenty of stink on him. But some of the conspiracy theories sound like shit out of fantasy land.  Hugo is right, if this conspiracy shit is on point, it will be the biggest political scandal in the history of the United States, and nothing else will come close.  If the conspiracy theories are right, heads need to roll. Lot's of them. All of them. And it needs to be put on PPV. 

Just because they lack the basic competence necessary to orchestrate a vast international conspiracy doesn't mean they aren't the centerpiece of one. I wouldn't be surprised to find Putin pulling the strings of some very dimwitted puppets.

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Quote

Honestly jimmy, what have you seen from the Trump administration that leads you to believe that this group of characters were able to orchestrate a vast international conspiracy involving Qatar, Russia, a major gas conglomeration, broad swathes of the RNC and GOP, coordination of social media targeting, and hacking efforts?  These people are not capable of having a basic staff meeting without fucking it up.

 

Well, I don't think they were able to orchestrate it with any level of sophistication.  I think this is largely going to prove out to be a fiscal prostration by Trump and his ilk that occurred over decades.  They went for the money.  That probably had legal implications here in the US that they might have successfully skirted for who knows how long, but when it escalated to elected positions, they got out over their skis, and guys like Mueller and Avenatti are having no problem connecting the dots.

Edited by jimmyjazz
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2 hours ago, burntorangebongos said:

Mueller's investigation has a scope based on the Rosenstien memo. So far we have seen evidence of potential fraud, foreign bribery, money laundering, obsruction. I'm going to add that I suspect conspiracy if not treason. Then there is the emoluments stuff which many ethics experts see clear violations of and the state of maryland is already suing for. No one is going to do anything because either they are complicit or they lack the spine. 

I don't know about you but seeing this blatant corruption continue is abhorrent to me. I want to protest in the streets and yell at the spineless assholes now. We can't let this assault on our replublic stand. Nothing is over until we say it is over.

Was it over when the Germans bombed pearl harbor? It ain't over now, 'cause when the going gets tough...the tough get going. Who's with me? Let's  go! Come on!

Just to be super-clear, "conspiracy" is not a crime unto itself.  It is a conspiracy to commit a crime in which some members of the conspiracy actually commit the crime and others do not.  The conspiracy allegation and proof thereof makes the non-doers liable for the crime also.

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19 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Honestly jimmy, what have you seen from the Trump administration that leads you to believe that this group of characters were able to orchestrate a vast international conspiracy involving Qatar, Russia, a major gas conglomeration, broad swathes of the RNC and GOP, coordination of social media targeting, and hacking efforts?  These people are not capable of having a basic staff meeting without fucking it up. I have no doubt that there is plenty of stink to uncover when you dig around Trump and the Trump organization. Wouldn't be surprise if Manafort brought some stink with him to the campaign. Not surprised if Stone has plenty of stink on him. But some of the conspiracy theories sound like shit out of fantasy land.  Hugo is right, if this conspiracy shit is on point, it will be the biggest political scandal in the history of the United States, and nothing else will come close.  If the conspiracy theories are right, heads need to roll. Lot's of them. All of them. And it needs to be put on PPV. 

Yeah, it's more like "hey, here's some money (or other valuable shit), take it," with no regard for the implications.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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Dammit, I put the reques in the wrong thread. I cant cut and paste. In pods post above, click on the tweet and go to jed shugermans tweet. He is keeping a timeline of the russia/qatar/trump evidence of quid pro quo and other crimes, they are even color coded. Post it here please. I can't with this phone.

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2 minutes ago, Purgatory County said:

This sounds right. They haven't covered any tracks, which shows brazen negligence and/or just total disregard. The issue is not what they have done, common sense suggests they've done everything you expect, and more. The issue is what you can do about it when almost half the media, almost half the population and all of the current government are self serving fanboys to these crimes.

The president must fall for this, less America does.

Theft can happen several ways.

Sophisticated thieves can break into my house under cover of night, disabling the alarm, and steal my stuff when I'm out of town.

Less-sophisticated thieves can smash a window with a rock, sounding the alarm, but grabbing all they can and running before the cops show.

Other thieves -- less sophisticated?  More sophisticated? -- just waltz into my house while I'm having folks over, and start openly taking TVs off the walls, packing up jewelry, etc. -- so brazen that it looks to any observer like they MUST have permission to do this, it MUST be okay, because no thief would be that open about taking stuff.

My guess is that the Trump gang is mostly of the third category.  They just openly take what they want, how they want, because they've gotten away with it so long, they've convinced themselves and the world that it's not even a crime.  Of COURSE we just walked in and took the TVs we wanted, that's how we operate.

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7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

 

Well, I don't think they were able to orchestrate it with any level of sophistication.  I think this is largely going to prove out to be a fiscal prostration by Trump and his ilk that occurred over decades.  They went for the money.  That probably had legal implications here in the US that they might have successfully skirted for who knows how long, but when it escalated to elected positions, they got out over their skis, and guys like Mueller and Avenatti are having no problem connecting the dots.

I think Flynn and Manafort definitely fit this mold. Cohen obviously. Tell me that they made dumb decisions when they saw dollar signs, I'll buy that. Tell me there are idiots abounding who didn't connect the dots to understand that they were a mark, I'll buy that too. They all have clear track record of such. OK.  But the conspiracy theories go much deeper than that, including broad GOP coordination and involvement, Paul/McConnell etc. knowingly funneling Russian money into the GOP, active coordination of targeting information with known Russian intelligence, just to name a few.  

I think that we will find something short of the full blown conspiracy, but quite damning in its self. Money once again at the heart of our political corruption.  

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2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I think that we will find something short of the full blown conspiracy, but quite damning in its self. Money once again at the heart of our political corruption.  

I think we'll be shocked when we find out how deep it goes --significantly worse than what is superficially known and suspected.

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27 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

I think we'll be shocked when we find out how deep it goes --significantly worse than what is superficially known and suspected.

If I were a betting man I would guess that the web does extend into career DC politicians, but not on a wholesale level.  Some may have gotten caught up in a money grab, perhaps late in the game.  Others are probably guilty of "hearing things" and half looking the other way, because votes.  

Is this a vast empire of corruption run in an efficient manner by one central actor?  No way.  Not even if that actor is Putin himself.

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I know you guys are ginned up over this Rosneft stuff but you need to be prepared for a big let down.  I know it makes for fascinating speculation but reality still exists in the end.  I won't go into all of the details but point out a few things.  

The deal that was struck between rosneft and Qatar/Glencore was agreed on sometime in January 2016, well before trump was a likely winner of anything.  The due dilligence for this deal (especially considering that it was a private company with some govt ownership) would have been massive.  Every asset of Rosneft, every contract, every piece of equipment etc. would be verified by the purchasers.  That process would take 9-10 months at least and cost upwards of $30M. 

Alleging that in the middle of the due diligence where you have investment banks and lawyers up to their ears in work and fees, that the selling party offered a massive commission to someone that had no impact on the deal whatsoever is just plain crazy.  It could not happen in any way.

Further, you have a very well respected and spectacularly successful energy company in Glencore that is part of the deal and putting in $300M of its own money.  Do you guys really think there is any way that Glencore is going to willingly go along with some sort of bribe/commission  to trump et al?  There is a 0% chance of that happening.  Glencore would run from that as fast as they could.  And Glencore, as part of the purchase, had access to every single dime from Rosneft and where it was going.  Every dime.  

For you guys to be right, the investment bankers and attorneys for Glencore would have to just completely disregard $100Ms in fees going somewhere unknown.  I am sure Glencore would be happy to buy into a company that was bribing a foreign govt.  Even more so, they were apparently bribing the guy that, at the time, everyone in the world thought had a maybe 5% chance of actually winning.  It is ridiculous on its face.  Glencore would risk its entire investment, reputation and possible legal standing, to bribe trump?

Before you guys rip me, this does not mean trump is clean.  This is not a defense of trump.  This is an attempt at basic thinking.  Trump may well go down (I still very much doubt it) but it is possible.  But the Rosneft angle is just ridiculous.

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2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

I think Flynn and Manafort definitely fit this mold. Cohen obviously. Tell me that they made dumb decisions when they saw dollar signs, I'll buy that. Tell me there are idiots abounding who didn't connect the dots to understand that they were a mark, I'll buy that too. They all have clear track record of such. OK.  But the conspiracy theories go much deeper than that, including broad GOP coordination and involvement, Paul/McConnell etc. knowingly funneling Russian money into the GOP, active coordination of targeting information with known Russian intelligence, just to name a few.  

I think that we will find something short of the full blown conspiracy, but quite damning in its self. Money once again at the heart of our political corruption.  

I doubt Paul / McConnell knowingly took Russian money. I DON'T doubt they took money without asking too many questions about where it came from. Finding out after the fact is probably what has led to the obfuscation and trying to derail the investigation.  

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4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Nice try.  Who says the broker commission came from the sales proceeds?

Next.

This is going to be pointless I am sure and I have no reason to think you have the capacity to actually understand it, but maybe others will.  No one suggested the commissions had to come from the sales proceeds genius.  What I am saying (and every banker and attorney will agree) is that if there was some commission to some unrelated 3rd party that it would have to be disclosed to the buyers.  The attorneys and bankers for Glencore would never let Glencore close on the deal without knowing exactly what and who that commission was for.  Zero chance.  

This is not some spy novel.  Serious professionals were part of this transaction.  banks put in billions of dollars.  Qatar's investment arm put in billions.  Glencore put in hundreds of millions.  And for you guys to be correct, they all would have had to knowingly go along with the bribe to Carter fucking Page.  The odds of getting found out are massive.  It defies logic on every scale.

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Just now, Pescado_Rojo said:

I doubt Paul / McConnell knowingly took Russian money. I DON'T doubt they took money without asking too many questions about where it came from. Finding out after the fact is probably what has led to the obfuscation and trying to derail the investigation.  

I could see something like that.  But is not what the conspiracy says.  The full blown Mensch conspiracy says that the intelligence community has Paul Ryan on tape with the Russian ambassador discussing how to funnel funds into political campaigns, including his own, without detection. 

I find it hard to conceive of that level of outright corruption at the upper levels of the GOP.  I mean, I can see some really corrupt shit, but I don't see that. Maybe I'm wrong.  If I am, there should be blood in the streets of DC. 

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2 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

This is going to be pointless I am sure and I have no reason to think you have the capacity to actually understand it, but maybe others will.  No one suggested the commissions had to come from the sales proceeds genius.  What I am saying (and every banker and attorney will agree) is that if there was some commission to some unrelated 3rd party that it would have to be disclosed to the buyers.  The attorneys and bankers for Glencore would never let Glencore close on the deal without knowing exactly what and who that commission was for.  Zero chance.  

This is not some spy novel.  Serious professionals were part of this transaction.  banks put in billions of dollars.  Qatar's investment arm put in billions.  Glencore put in hundreds of millions.  And for you guys to be correct, they all would have had to knowingly go along with the bribe to Carter fucking Page.  The odds of getting found out are massive.  It defies logic on every scale.

You've made it quite clear that you think you know more about large deals than anyone around here, and you're so fucking sure of it you're a dick about it to boot.  What I am 100% sure of is that you haven't a fucking clue how deals between giant Russian petro companies, middle eastern parties, and US elected officials work, so cool it with the condescension.

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5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I could see something like that.  But is not what the conspiracy says.  The full blown Mensch conspiracy says that the intelligence community has Paul Ryan on tape with the Russian ambassador discussing how to funnel funds into political campaigns, including his own, without detection. 

I find it hard to conceive of that level of outright corruption at the upper levels of the GOP.  I mean, I can see some really corrupt shit, but I don't see that. Maybe I'm wrong.  If I am, there should be blood in the streets of DC. 

The Mensch conspiracy is a wet dream.  No need to buy into it to think that Trump et al have no dirt on their hands.

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2 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

This is going to be pointless I am sure and I have no reason to think you have the capacity to actually understand it, but maybe others will.  No one suggested the commissions had to come from the sales proceeds genius.  What I am saying (and every banker and attorney will agree) is that if there was some commission to some unrelated 3rd party that it would have to be disclosed to the buyers.  The attorneys and bankers for Glencore would never let Glencore close on the deal without knowing exactly what and who that commission was for.  Zero chance.  

This is not some spy novel.  Serious professionals were part of this transaction.  banks put in billions of dollars.  Qatar's investment arm put in billions.  Glencore put in hundreds of millions.  And for you guys to be correct, they all would have had to knowingly go along with the bribe to Carter fucking Page.  The odds of getting found out are massive.  It defies logic on every scale.

I am aware of a deal worth over $1.5 billion that failed ONLY because a third party showed up at the courthouse to raise a ridiculously obvious point -- the "entity" that was leading the transaction was not a type of entity legally permitted to undertake the act at issue.  It was a glaring and simple failure.  And by raising and proving that issue, a multi-billion dollar deal was sunk.  In the matter of a one-day proceeding, it was all over.

You know who was utterly on board with the deal (because they were set to make several hundred million when it closed)?  An investment bank that everyone her knows by name.

I can tell you from direct, first-hand experience that big-time players DO pull shit that is patently illegal and impermissible, and purposefully look the other way as to HUGE omissions because (1) they make hundreds of millions on such deals, upon closing, and (2) it's only a problem if someone OUTSIDE the transaction is (a) privy to the details and (b) savvy enough to throw up roadblocks.  Otherwise, they quite often follow the first law of finance: everything's legal unless you get caught.

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30 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

The attorneys and bankers for Glencore would never let Glencore close on the deal without knowing exactly what and who that commission was for.  Zero chance.  

 

You may want to read up on Glencore before making such a broad statement. They are a huge company, and I get that huge companies some times tend to touch deals that turnout to be ethically challenged.  Glencore is certainly no exception, and they have some noteworthy ones.  Just pulling a few out of Wikipedia.

 

Quote

ABC Radio reported in 2005 that Glencore "has been accused of illegal dealings with rogue states: apartheid South Africa, USSR, Iran, and Iraq under Saddam Hussein", and has a "history of busting UN embargoes to profit from corrupt or despotic regimes".[12] Specifically, Glencore was reported to have been named by the CIA to have paid $3,222,780 in illegal kickbacks to obtain oil in the course of the UN oil-for-food programme for Iraq. The company denied these charges, according to the CIA report quoted by ABC.[12][49]

..

In April 2018, the company started to limit its exposure to Oleg Deripaska by canceling the plan to swap a 8.75 percent stake in aluminum producer United Co. Rusal for shares in another one of Deripaska’s companies, London-listed En+ Group Plc. The commodities trader also announced that Chief Executive Officer Ivan Glasenberg has resigned from Rusal’s board

 

It's funny that you mention "spy novel" in your post.  Had you already read the Wiki page:

"An Australian ABC (public radio) report said, "Glencore's history reads like a spy novel".[12] "

 

Edited by Tuco
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SIAP:

 

Special Counsel Robert Mueller obtained a secret order from a federal magistrate judge to suspend the statute of limitations on one of the charges he ultimately brought against Paul Manafort, a court filing revealed Monday evening. Mueller did not inform Manafort of the secret order until after the former Trump campaign chairman had requested that charge be thrown out, the filing said.

Mueller also disclosed in the Monday court filing that, as recently as April 30 of this year, the government of Cyprus was still turning over documents related to the special counsel’s Manafort investigation.

 

Because investigators were relying on a foreign government to produce certain evidence, Mueller last June asked a magistrate judge in Virginia to suspend the statute of limitations on the charge that Manafort failed to to file a Foreign Bank Account Report (FBAR), according to the filing. Mueller ultimately brought that charge against Manafort in February. The judge’s decision granting Mueller’s request to suspend the statute of limitations was previously under seal, but was included in Monday’s filings.

The revelation came in a response to Manafort’s motion to dismiss the FBAR charge in the Eastern District of Virginia, where he is also facing tax fraud and bank fraud charges. That case is in addition to the one brought in Washington, D.C., where Manafort has been charged with money laundering and failure to disclose foreign lobbying.

Manafort has pleaded not guilty to all charges.

“Because the government secured a timely and valid order in this District to suspend the running of the applicable statute of limitations until at least the date on which the Superseding Indictment was returned, Manafort’s motion should be denied,” Mueller said in his motion.

According to Monday’s filing, investigators first sought the documents from Cyprus in early June 2017. The request is called a mutual legal assistance treaty (MLAT), and it was filed through the Office of International Affairs of the United States Department of Justice.

 

Investigators were seeking “among other evidence, bank records, articles of incorporation, and witness interviews concerning certain of Manafort and Richard Gates’s bank accounts in Cyprus,” according to the filing.

Because the statute of limitations was set to run out on June 29 — five years after the June 29, 2012 deadline Manafort would have faced to file the foreign bank report with the U.S. Treasury — prosecutors on June 26 came to Judge Claude M. Hilton with their request, which was filed ex parte, meaning only the government’s side was aware of it, and not Manafort.

Cyprus’ production of evidence has taken months, according to the filing, and investigators wrote to Cypriot authorities in December informing them that they were still missing some of the Manafort documents they had requested. Cyprus’ government did not respond to the request until April 30 this year, according to Monday’s filing, well after Mueller’s grand jury in Virginia handed down indictments against Manafort in February.

“The bottom line, then, is that Cyprus had not fully satisfied the government’s official request when the original and Superseding Indictment of Manafort were returned on February 13 and 22, respectively,” Mueller said. “As a result, no ‘final action’ had yet occurred as of the date of the operative indictments, and the applicable statute of limitations remained suspended.”

Cyprus began turning over documents in September, 2017, according to the filing.

 

Screen-Shot-2018-05-15-at-9.25.14-AM.png

Mueller’s filing also revealed that, at the time Manafort requested that the FBAR charge be thrown out, the prosecutors had not yet informed him of their successful request to have the statute of limitations suspended.

“The government has now produced that Order to the defense, together with redacted versions of the MLAT requests themselves,” the filing said.

Read the full filing below:

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/manafort-mueller-secret-order-foreign-bank-statute-of-limitations?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

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Just now, Tuco said:

You may want to read up on Glencore before making such a broad statement. They are a huge company, and I get that huge companies some times tend to touch deals that turnout to be ethically challenged.  Glencore is certainly no exception, and they have some noteworthy ones.  Just pulling a few out of Wikipedia.

 

It's funny that you mention "spy novel" in your post.  Had you already read the Wiki page:

"An Australian ABC (public radio) report said, "Glencore's history reads like a spy novel".[12] "

 

I'm beginning to get the feeling that sheeit doesn't know, well, sheeit about "deals" and whatnot.

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The deal was structured in a highly unusual way, sheeeit. Not sure if you read thie info of this and then commented or by your general knowledge. An article in marketwatch on june 7 ,2017 by sarah mcfarlane explains that the Russia moved to buy back the shares it sold. It goes on to explain that the shares were not directly held by Glencore and qatar but by a UK limited partnership. It has been speculated that the reason for the buy back and unusual deal structure was to obfuscate the payments. There is also a chart of the deal structure that has you should look at on medium.com created by wendy seigelman charts the ownership. Maybe you can tell me what you see based on the deal structure. 

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Regardless of how the deal was structured, eventually Mueller will need to show money going into Target's pocket.  "Target" being whoever he is charging.  If that is Trump, and it flowed through Cohen, he will still need to show how the money got to Trump.  The rest of it is a shell game that is an attempt to obscure what angle they were trying to get it to Target. But certainly if the deal was set up in a weird way, it does support that it was a weird deal.  It makes it looks suspicious.  It makes the dossier seem more credible.  But it being suspicious isn't enough. Ultimately they will need to show Target picking up the bag of cash.

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1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

You've made it quite clear that you think you know more about large deals than anyone around here, and you're so fucking sure of it you're a dick about it to boot.  What I am 100% sure of is that you haven't a fucking clue how deals between giant Russian petro companies, middle eastern parties, and US elected officials work, so cool it with the condescension.

Lulz.  I only know that I know more about these types of deals than you do, which was obvious with your stupid commissions/proceeds retort.  I am very hopeful there are people on here with some experience also in this type of deal so that they can verify what I am saying.

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1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

I could see something like that.  But is not what the conspiracy says.  The full blown Mensch conspiracy says that the intelligence community has Paul Ryan on tape with the Russian ambassador discussing how to funnel funds into political campaigns, including his own, without detection. 

I find it hard to conceive of that level of outright corruption at the upper levels of the GOP.  I mean, I can see some really corrupt shit, but I don't see that. Maybe I'm wrong.  If I am, there should be blood in the streets of DC. 

Fuck blood on the streets. Head on pikes. Drawing, quartering. A chunk in California, a chunk in Texas, a chunk in Minnesota, and one in NYC. Suspension of the 8th amendment. Public torture and execution. Real medieval comic book shit. 

Edited by TwiceHorn
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6 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

Lulz.  I only know that I know more about these types of deals than you do, which was obvious with your stupid commissions/proceeds retort.  I am very hopeful there are people on here with some experience also in this type of deal so that they can verify what I am saying.

You mean my retort you agreed with?  OK, ace.

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

I am aware of a deal worth over $1.5 billion that failed ONLY because a third party showed up at the courthouse to raise a ridiculously obvious point -- the "entity" that was leading the transaction was not a type of entity legally permitted to undertake the act at issue.  It was a glaring and simple failure.  And by raising and proving that issue, a multi-billion dollar deal was sunk.  In the matter of a one-day proceeding, it was all over.

You know who was utterly on board with the deal (because they were set to make several hundred million when it closed)?  An investment bank that everyone her knows by name.

I can tell you from direct, first-hand experience that big-time players DO pull shit that is patently illegal and impermissible, and purposefully look the other way as to HUGE omissions because (1) they make hundreds of millions on such deals, upon closing, and (2) it's only a problem if someone OUTSIDE the transaction is (a) privy to the details and (b) savvy enough to throw up roadblocks.  Otherwise, they quite often follow the first law of finance: everything's legal unless you get caught.

You are kind of making my point.  Of course the bankers will try and get the deal done, that is their job.  But they have massive liability if they obfuscated something as egregious as what people are alleging.  

But that is also why I included the lawyers.  Your point above that even a tiny issue can derail a deal because the attorneys pour over every detail.   Do you think that there is any way possible that the attorneys and bankers would not be aware if there were hundreds of millions of bribes being paid as part of the deal?  You have to agree that they would have to know.  Impossible that they would not.  As an attorney, you know that you would have massive liability issues if you did not disclose completely the nature of those payments.  You would probably quit the deal over something like that but, at a minimum, you would paper the transaction to cover your ass in every way possible.

That is why these types of things are just so crazy.  Somehow we are to believe that russians wanted to bribe trump to lift sanctions first (which is believable that they would want to do that) then they got Qatar and Glencore to go along with it then they got the Singapore bank to go along with it, then they got all of the outside i-bankers and lawyers to go along with it.  Knowing full well that if anyone in the chain anywhere cracked, they could all go to jail at worst and definitely lose a ton of money at best and, probably most important, lose out on any chance to work with the US ever again or any of the US allies that the US told not to work with them.  Essentially suicide.  And they would risk all of that to bribe a guy that no one thought had any chance to win.  

If you guys step back from this you surely can see how this would never happen.

Again, I would believe that Rosneft might bribe someone.  I can believe that Glencore and Qatar could bribe someone.  But there is just no way it could happen as part of a deal like the one that was done.  Way too many moving parts and no way to keep the story straight.  Carter Page!!  Thats according tot eh dossier right?  All of these people are going to risk professional ruin by trusting Carter Page.  Come on.

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59 minutes ago, Tuco said:

You may want to read up on Glencore before making such a broad statement. They are a huge company, and I get that huge companies some times tend to touch deals that turnout to be ethically challenged.  Glencore is certainly no exception, and they have some noteworthy ones.  Just pulling a few out of Wikipedia.

 

It's funny that you mention "spy novel" in your post.  Had you already read the Wiki page:

"An Australian ABC (public radio) report said, "Glencore's history reads like a spy novel".[12] "

 

I have no illusions about Glencore.  They do what every other major energy player does at times.  I am not saying that, on their own, Glencore would not do something nefarious.  I am saying not in a deal like this.  It might be the tiniest bit possible if the entire deal was financed privately by Qatar and Glencore but it wasn't.  Banks in singapore provided many billions in funding.  Are we to assume that hte singapore bankers were also in on the bribe?  I would think that the banks would like to get repaid on their loans.  Openly entering into a situation involving bribing a US presidential candidate seems a bit risky for most banks.  You think it is possible that the lawyers for the singapore banks were ok with the set up?  When you loan someone billions you get to see every financial transaction.

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9 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

But that is also why I included the lawyers.  Your point above that even a tiny issue can derail a deal because the attorneys pour over every detail.   Do you think that there is any way possible that the attorneys and bankers would not be aware if there were hundreds of millions of bribes being paid as part of the deal?  You have to agree that they would have to know.  Impossible that they would not.  As an attorney, you know that you would have massive liability issues if you did not disclose completely the nature of those payments.  You would probably quit the deal over something like that but, at a minimum, you would paper the transaction to cover your ass in every way possible.

Holy sheeit.  You absolutely did NOT read what I posted.

Read it again:

Quote

I am aware of a deal worth over $1.5 billion that failed ONLY because a third party showed up at the courthouse

That is -- NOT ONE OF THE DEAL LAWYERS.  The deal lawyers DID go over every detail.  They DID structure the entities and transaction the way that they did.

And it would have gone through, but for A THIRD PARTY coming in and calling them on the issue.

And, yep, there was definitely a subsequent discussion and litigation as to the issue of "you know that you would have massive liability issues."  Lotta finger-pointing.  That happens when an investment bank and other interested parties lose out on $200-300 million in fees and commissions.

Your point is that it's preposterous for shady deals of such high-dollar value to happen.  I'm here to tell you that I have seen them put together, and by lawyers and bankers a SHITLOAD more competent and credible than Cohen and company.

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