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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?


Reagan1k

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1 minute ago, Storm the Field said:

Why use a chart from 11 months ago? An updated one would show that line peaking later in the year and then starting a steady downslope a few months ago.

because it was the first chart on a simple google search to make the point I was trying to make.(yo-yo inflation of 70's and 80's)

Frankly a dip currently only reinforces that point.

 

The POINT

The FED don't give a lot of fucks if inflation is currently declining.  They are dead set on avoiding the yo-yo and subsequent, Volker crushes inflation 25% rates.

 

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9 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

because it was the first chart on a simple google search to make the point I was trying to make.(yo-yo inflation of 70's and 80's)

Frankly a dip currently only reinforces that point.

 

The POINT

The FED don't give a lot of fucks if inflation is currently declining.  They are dead set on avoiding the yo-yo and subsequent, Volker crushes inflation 25% rates.

 

that was obvious. I really don't get why these enjoyable/intellectual/curiosity/learning based threads have to be littered with gotcha bullshit.  I guess some of y'all need to get laid.

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2 minutes ago, troph said:

that was obvious. I really don't get why these enjoyable/intellectual/curiosity/learning based threads have to be littered with gotcha bullshit.  I guess some of y'all need to get laid.

100%. I enjoy the banter and the knowledge but I think the stink of the political ramifications taint people's comments. I give zero fucks who benefits / is to blame for this. Inflation is a HUGE drag on our economy and hammers the lower class disproportionately regardless of who is in charge. 

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1 hour ago, troph said:

because they do the work reliably without complaining.  There is nothing morally wrong with hiring humans and paying them good wages.  The bible doesn't say thou shalt only hire people in your country.  and I'm not an employee, I work for myself so the work gets done or it doesn't.  but let's argue about bullshit.

Funny thing is - wages haven't been keeping up with inflation for hourly earners. Since the fucking 70s lol. Because if you ask for more money, all the idiot MBA cost cutters who see workers as numbers instead of people will just move those jobs overseas. Of course nobody wants to work when they know they'll never get a piece of the success and profit that they've generated the business. 

Too bad not everyone is independently wealthy to start their own business like you though, the world sure would be easier that way. Maybe you should suggest they get some bootstraps?

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1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

100%. I enjoy the banter and the knowledge but I think the stink of the political ramifications taint people's comments. I give zero fucks who benefits / is to blame for this. Inflation is a HUGE drag on our economy and hammers the lower class disproportionately regardless of who is in charge. 

I don't see eye to eye with incredulity on politics, doesn't mean he's a jackwagon. he's made repeated good points on this thread.  fuck your team, my team nonsense.

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21 minutes ago, troph said:

fuck off. I grew up broke, like look in the pantry at the end of the month and my choices are scrape the peanut butter jar for a hint of flavor and wipe it on a piece of stale heel bread or open a can of lima or navy beans that are expired, like I can't have new shoes as a high schooler even though there are several inch wide holes in the soles of them and kids at school made fun of me broke. 

I went to law school, treated it like a job did well got a good job, we bought a garbage small business for no money down, a complete trash business, arguably a stupid decision, turned it around, worked 90-100 hours per week for a decade to sell it, made some really stupid decisions after that in 2007-2008, lived on credit cards for a year with zero income ineligible for unemployment, nearly went bankrupt, was broke for most of the 2010's, started a law firm to dig out of that, and decided to take more chances.  I've spent most of 2008-2012 stressed out of my mind, crying in my closet, unable to sleep.  2022 wasn't much different, not as much crying.  I've also had Rocky moments too, eye of the tiger and all of that.  wealth doesn't just happen for those of us who were born poor.  I told myself a long time ago I wasn't afraid to be broke, but I am afraid of not taking chances.  I could really care less on my death bed how much money I made, but I damn for sure care that I go out saying, well I rolled the dice over and over and over again.

But the fact that I take insane chances that subject me to bankruptcy and making money all at the same time doesn't warrant some bullshit attack.

 

 

IMPO the opportunity to do this, take these chances, is what make America great/special/so on.

You're god damn right its a bit dusty in here.  

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14 minutes ago, troph said:

I've spent most of 2008-2012 stressed out of my mind, crying in my closet, unable to sleep.  2022 wasn't much different, not as much crying.  I've also had Rocky moments too, eye of the tiger and all of that.  wealth doesn't just happen for those of us who were born poor.  I told myself a long time ago I wasn't afraid to be broke, but I am afraid of not taking chances.  I could really care less on my death bed how much money I made, but I damn for sure care that I go out saying, well I rolled the dice over and over and over again.

But the fact that I take insane chances that subject me to bankruptcy and making money all at the same time doesn't warrant some bullshit attack

And I'm very glad that you found success after years of pain and toil and suffering to get there. You're a success story and you should be proud of it. 

It's also not realistic to expect everyone to find your success - it's how you end up with a massive wealth disparity when people aren't able to take on massive risk or weather several major losses. It engenders a certain virtue of wealth mindset that demonizes those who've been grinding at a career for 20 years like my mom and getting treated like a number and cost to be reduced by the beancounters. 

I am sorry for the attacking words, but your experience is a rare outlier of the American dream. It's absolutely hard fought and well earned, but absolutely not the expected outcome. 

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4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

And I'm very glad that you found success after years of pain and toil and suffering to get there. You're a success story and you should be proud of it. 

It's also not realistic to expect everyone to find your success - it's how you end up with a massive wealth disparity when people aren't able to take on massive risk or weather several major losses. It engenders a certain virtue of wealth mindset that demonizes those who've been grinding at a career for 20 years like my mom and getting treated like a number and cost to be reduced by the beancounters. 

I am sorry for the attacking words, but your experience is a rare outlier of the American dream. It's absolutely hard fought and well earned, but absolutely not the expected outcome. 

where did I say I expect anyone to be a lunatic like me? I'm addicted to risk taking behavior. I just tried to channel it in a socially acceptable manner.  Anyone who asks me about it I say the same thing, intense ADHD is a bitch unless you find your path, well mine is chaotic work environment, high stress, high stakes, could make a lot, could lose a lot.  not everyone is like that. 

This whole thing started when I said people need to get back to enjoying work as part of their meaning, it's in our DNA, it's who we are, we are made to work.  It's undeniable that there is a problem and that it's related to the pandemic.  you want to talk wages, ok. you want to talk shitty employers, ok. you want to talk about something else related ok.  But the truth is - all of us - me included, suffered a tremendous trauma event and it has undoubtedly impacted our work, the quality of it, the amount of it, and everything about it.  maybe not you, maybe not her, maybe not them, but most of us, yeah.  I even used a vignette that was from my personal life to explain it - habitual scrolling through unrealistic instagram bullshit advocating you just travel the world (who is paying for that?) and just saying fuck it.

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2 hours ago, troph said:

I don't know how much you work with folks across markets and industries but I'd be willing to bet my experience is a more broad representation of the entire market than yours (off the top of my head I deal with real estate, contractors, subcontractors, attorneys, corporate fortune 500, board of directors, C-suite for mid sized companies, hospitality, theatre/performance, social work, marketing, bankers, etc.). it's not that people don't want a job, they do, but since the pandemic it's pretty clear the amount of just getting by has skyrocketed. folks are unreliable, checked out, and I experience repeatedly and daily across several industries.  I do think whitecollar and the higher up you go the better it is but even some of my corporate clients are having trouble with people.  so you can argue all you want, I'm not here for that, I'm here for real and thoughtful discussion.

If you want to have a real and thoughtful discussion, it might behoove you to think about why people seem to care less since the pandemic instead of assuming it’s because of tik tok. 

Also, “quite quitting” isn’t a new phenomenon. The previous generation said “clock in, clock out”, and I’m sure every generation had a term before that. People hating their job isn’t new. It’s always been a thing. 

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2 minutes ago, troph said:

where did I say I expect anyone to be a lunatic like me? I'm addicted to risk taking behavior. I just tried to channel it in a socially acceptable manner.

It's moreso the implied veneration of that "lunatic" risk taking as THE American Dream that I'm talking about. 

 

3 minutes ago, troph said:

This whole thing started when I said people need to get back to enjoying work as part of their meaning, it's in our DNA, it's who we are, we are made to work.  It's undeniable that there is a problem and that it's related to the pandemic. 

People do need to work, but for most that work does not yield them any benefit or actual improvement to their life. For many minimum wage earners with kids, they LOSE money going to work after factoring in day care and transportation costs. Because if those workers got paid more, inflation or something. Or the business isn't viable without wage slavery.

The problem isn't related to the pandemic, its always been there. The pandemic just removed all pretense and handwaving away and laid bare the huge fucking problems in our system. 

Calling it quiet quitting is ignoring the reality of what's happening, and why I reacted the way I did. Sorry again for the attack. 

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4 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

If you want to have a real and thoughtful discussion, it might behoove you to think about why people seem to care less since the pandemic instead of assuming it’s because of tik tok. 

Also, “quite quitting” isn’t a new phenomenon. The previous generation said “clock in, clock out”, and I’m sure every generation had a term before that. People hating their job isn’t new. It’s always been a thing. 

I did not intend to insinuate it was because of tik tok (or instagram), I used that as a vignette to be funny. I'm certainly sorry if I upset anyone with that. 

There are a myriad of reasons, I think some of my subsequent posts acknowledge that and there are numerous researchers who have written about the trauma of the pandemic and its impact on all of us. I've mentioned that more than the IG comment which I also admitted was out of my personal experience.  I mentioned that I struggled for over a year with giving zero fucks. 

I'm sorry if compassion didn't come across in the totality of my posts.  I have a tremendous amount of compassion for all of us whatever our circumstances are related to the pandemic, the shut downs, the uncertainty, now the inflation and possible recession. it's a shit sandwich. 

and that's on top of decades of mistreatment of labor force.

I do believe though that we are made to work, and we have to find a way to find some meaning in our work (not necessarily do gooder meaning, just ordinary satisfaction in our work) and that is ultimately our responsibility.  For me, like I said it was fundamentally a need to shake it off or get fucked, then gratitude, fishing and a therapist that got me out of it after about a year or more.

 

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5 minutes ago, Captainant said:

It's moreso the implied veneration of that "lunatic" risk taking as THE American Dream that I'm talking about. 

 

People do need to work, but for most that work does not yield them any benefit or actual improvement to their life. For many minimum wage earners with kids, they LOSE money going to work after factoring in day care and transportation costs. Because if those workers got paid more, inflation or something. Or the business isn't viable without wage slavery.

The problem isn't related to the pandemic, its always been there. The pandemic just removed all pretense and handwaving away and laid bare the huge fucking problems in our system. 

Calling it quiet quitting is ignoring the reality of what's happening, and why I reacted the way I did. Sorry again for the attack. 

no worries.

the zero fucks to give has increased dramatically because of the trauma of the pandemic. that's been greatly discussed and written about, but it is on top of what you said not an isolated reason.  and to the topic of inflation, there are significant impacts there as well and in part does impact supply chain of both goods and services.

you know how I vote, you know my positions are largely aligned with yours.  our laws are so atrocious when it comes to labor it's beyond embarrassing.

I'm sorry I came of as flippant. 

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11 minutes ago, Captainant said:

People do need to work, but for most that work does not yield them any benefit or actual improvement to their life. For many minimum wage earners with kids, they LOSE money going to work after factoring in day care and transportation costs. Because if those workers got paid more, inflation or something. Or the business isn't viable without wage slavery.

 

unimpressed jerk off motion GIF

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9 minutes ago, troph said:

I did not intend to insinuate it was because of tik tok (or instagram), I used that as a vignette to be funny. I'm certainly sorry if I upset anyone with that. 

There are a myriad of reasons, I think some of my subsequent posts acknowledge that and there are numerous researchers who have written about the trauma of the pandemic and its impact on all of us. I've mentioned that more than the IG comment which I also admitted was out of my personal experience.  I mentioned that I struggled for over a year with giving zero fucks. 

I'm sorry if compassion didn't come across in the totality of my posts.  I have a tremendous amount of compassion for all of us whatever our circumstances are related to the pandemic, the shut downs, the uncertainty, now the inflation and possible recession. it's a shit sandwich. 

and that's on top of decades of mistreatment of labor force.

I do believe though that we are made to work, and we have to find a way to find some meaning in our work (not necessarily do gooder meaning, just ordinary satisfaction in our work) and that is ultimately our responsibility.  For me, like I said it was fundamentally a need to shake it off or get fucked, then gratitude, fishing and a therapist that got me out of it after about a year or more.

 

Understood. No worries. I agree with you on the finding meaning in work. I think it’s harder for young people in general, I know it was for me, and then you add in some of todays challenges. I do not envy the younger generation at all. Yes, sometimes you just have to bit the shit sandwich, put your nose to the grindstone, and all that. I agree with on that, and I think most people do. At the same time, there are no houses to buy, and even if there were, they can’t afford them. Not to mention, their brains are being turned to mush from doom scrolling and seeing peers make millions twerking. It’s a world of shit. I don’t have the answer, not even close, but I think many people are turned off on the current “system” right now for a myriad of reasons. 

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9 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Understood. No worries. I agree with you on the finding meaning in work. I think it’s harder for young people in general, I know it was for me, and then you add in some of todays challenges. I do not envy the younger generation at all. Yes, sometimes you just have to bit the shit sandwich, put your nose to the grindstone, and all that. I agree with on that, and I think most people do. At the same time, there are no houses to buy, and even if there were, they can’t afford them. Not to mention, their brains are being turned to mush from doom scrolling and seeing peers make millions twerking. It’s a world of shit. I don’t have the answer, not even close, but I think many people are turned off on the current “system” right now for a myriad of reasons. 

I agree 100%. 

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On 1/12/2023 at 10:08 AM, troph said:

well, we have more people working for us out of the Philippines now than we have employees in the US.  it's 3:1 so it's not an army but it's something.  they are grateful, do good work, cost less and show up ready to do the job.  if that's yelling at a cloud ok.

Have a command center of nurses in the Philippines.  They’re nurses that are credentialed in the US but waiting on a visa.  Help with overnight remote monitoring.  Also use scribes in the Philippines.  You do your day and turn notes in at night.  Thanks to the time difference things are done and all entered by the next morning.  Can’t tell you how great their people are to work with.  It’s not all bullshit ‘stole our jerbs!’ garbage when you use overseas help.  

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33 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Have a command center of nurses in the Philippines.  They’re nurses that are credentialed in the US but waiting on a visa.  Help with overnight remote monitoring.  Also use scribes in the Philippines.  You do your day and turn notes in at night.  Thanks to the time difference things are done and all entered by the next morning.  Can’t tell you how great their people are to work with.  It’s not all bullshit ‘stole our jerbs!’ garbage when you use overseas help.  

They didn’t use to hang with @RayDog, did they? 

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On 1/12/2023 at 12:34 PM, Captainant said:

And I'm very glad that you found success after years of pain and toil and suffering to get there. You're a success story and you should be proud of it. 

It's also not realistic to expect everyone to find your success - it's how you end up with a massive wealth disparity when people aren't able to take on massive risk or weather several major losses. It engenders a certain virtue of wealth mindset that demonizes those who've been grinding at a career for 20 years like my mom and getting treated like a number and cost to be reduced by the beancounters. 

I am sorry for the attacking words, but your experience is a rare outlier of the American dream. It's absolutely hard fought and well earned, but absolutely not the expected outcome. 

What you meant to say is that it isn't realistic to expect people to put in the work or make good decisions.   There are many folks like you who repeatedly and consistently poo-poo the notion that people can control or take charge of their destinies   You are deadset on the idea that the American Dream is dead because we're not all Bill Gates or some shit. Then when folks say, "Nah, that's not really accurate, this is what happened to me," you same folks act like we somehow hit the lottery or got lucky. 

Want to focus on how tough life can be?  Sure, that's your fucking right, I guess; but to spout this other bullshit is just wallowing in failure and dystopian ideals.

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On 1/12/2023 at 10:08 AM, troph said:

well, we have more people working for us out of the Philippines now than we have employees in the US.  it's 3:1 so it's not an army but it's something.  they are grateful, do good work, cost less and show up ready to do the job.  if that's yelling at a cloud ok.

Jesus Christ. You are outsourcing jobs while complaining about Americans? You are part of the problem, and sound like a complete asshole to boot. 

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23 minutes ago, Bolero88 said:

Jesus Christ. You are outsourcing jobs while complaining about Americans? You are part of the problem, and sound like a complete asshole to boot. 



I’m on the leadership team for one company where we have already raised comp across the board and are revamping again to raise further to lead the market on higher (highest) comp among competitors. Total employees between 200-500. We are also working on better alternative benefits and better hybrid remote work policies.

I have multiple former employees who said I fundamentally changed their career trajectory for the better with my personal investment in their career. 

I also have shared dozens and dozens of times about my political positions on labor. Ability to unionize should be easier, min wage should go up, paid maternity and paternity leave, I’m against non-competes, and more and more. 

There are no “thou shalt nots” here bud. Outsourcing as you call it isn’t a thing. Hiring competitively is and it’s global. and after doing it over and over we decided instead of using contractors for a finance department we could get better performance in house and even better performance using non-US workers. Where does it say I have to spend more and get less because ‘Merica?

No one is going to protect my career from AI or foreign workers. Being competitive means being competitive.

I also was explaining that we as a society faced a trauma with the pandemic that have made things worse. I talk to people responsible for hiring combined thousands of positions, it’s a well known fact. 

as for being an asshole, moose out front should have told ya. Don’t you know all of us in this asylum are assholes? so let me be the accusation and say fuck off with your sanctimonious bullshit. 

Edited by troph
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Good (and encouraging) column from Krugmam today…may be paywalled but I assume it’s syndicated:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/13/opinion/cpi-inflation-fed.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

Funny, the more selective I’ve become on which Krugman columns I read, the better columnist he’s become!

Edit…ok, so it’s paywalled. Will cut and paste in a spoiler when on a computer unless someone can teach me how to do so through Tapatalk

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43 minutes ago, HamsterHookah said:

The Chevron buyback has really colored your thinking today, I bet.

Eh, it's been building with the news releases over the weeks: railroads with record profits - after crushing a strike out of fears for their shareholders, MS laying off ten thousand and then partying in Davos while spending $10,000,000,000 on another company, businesses raising prices FAR beyond inflationary rates, etc etc etc. 

Just sort of pointing out how the economy is very much haves and have nots. Growth and stability doesn't go to the people doing the work, it goes to the shareholders and STAYS in the shareholders. Growing wealth gap out front shoulda told ya

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5 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Eh, it's been building with the news releases over the weeks: railroads with record profits - after crushing a strike out of fears for their shareholders, MS laying off ten thousand and then partying in Davos while spending $10,000,000,000 on another company, businesses raising prices FAR beyond inflationary rates, etc etc etc. 

Just sort of pointing out how the economy is very much haves and have nots. Growth and stability doesn't go to the people doing the work, it goes to the shareholders and STAYS in the shareholders. Growing wealth gap out front shoulda told ya

Fair enough.

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1. You're posting an article from July. Inflation has cooled considerably.

2. 9.1% is not a record high. If you read the article, you'll see in the first paragraph it's the highest in four decades. Again... in July. Here's an updated chart for you:

December Inflation Report: Consumer Price Gains Continue to Cool - The New  York Times

 

 

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