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2022 NBA Draft


Mitch Cumsteen
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I didn't see a thread on this already so I thought I'd get it kicked off. If there is one already, my bad. Will delete.

First, Shaedon Smith is apparently eligible for the 2022 draft, which is rather big news. #1 rated prospect in the 2022 class who reclassified to this year, enrolled early at Kentucky and is projected top 5-10 pick.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/33109452/shaedon-sharpe-18-apply-2022-nba-draft-joining-kentucky-wildcats-january

I found a few early mocks, which have Jabari Smith going first over Holmgren and Banchero. And for the record, I'm all in on Smith. I think he's going to be an incredible pro.

https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/

https://www.tankathon.com/big_board

https://www.si.com/nba/2022/01/13/nba-mock-draft-2022-paolo-banchero-jabari-smith-chet-holmgren-johnny-davis

https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2022-nba-mock-draft/

 

Edited by Mitch Cumsteen
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Interesting teams will be Okie City and Indy.  Okie might have two lottery picks and Indy seems to want to blow it up.  They might have a high draft pick plus some assets to trade.  They could both easily move up if they needed or wanted to.  I don't see Okie City taking a guard or a wing, though, and lucky for them there seems to be some good big men this year.

I agree on Smith.  I'd take him #1 and Paolo #2.  I still don't know what to think about Chet.  He has the height and the skill set to be like Dirk but can he ever put on weight?  The history of really skinny dudes putting on weight isn't a good one.  

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  • 1 month later...
I know that Holmgren, Banchero, and J. Smith are considered Tier 1....but I think you have to put Jaden Ivey up there as well.  His game is so NBA ready.

Goddamn, I was thinking the same thing tonight. Would love to see him on the Spurs!
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Posted (edited)

I’d have Holmgren and Ivey as the top 2.   Both are going to be better in the NBA than college since they’ll have more space to do work off the dribble.  Smith and Banchero are good prospects, but they’re not nearly as unique.

Edited by longhornmatt
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The Ringer has their first mock draft out now.  They still have the top 4 as Chet, Jabari, Paolo, and Ivey.  Listened to a bit of their podcast and they seem to think Shaedon Sharpe is the big wild card.  They said if he played this year, he'd easily be in the conversation but he hasn't played since AAU ball.  Said he also might go back to Kentucky, but I doubt that.  I still have mixed views on Chet.  He has all the tools at 7 feet but can he put on weight and if not, can he stay healthy being that thin?

https://nbadraft.theringer.com

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3 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

Ivey is just awful, and Chet is mediocre.  The 2022 draft is painfully dull. 

Boy you're insistent on letting everyone know how little you know about professional basketball. 

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16 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

got it backwards.  Do you watch the games? Do you understand 'game'?  No.  GMs make huge mistakes and 2022 will be no exception. 

You're basing these guy's draft stocks solely on tournament games that you've watched. Do you watch the NBA? Because that has much more to do with understanding how college players rate as a prospect. NBA scouts barely give a shit if Jaden Ivey has a bad game in the tourney. It tells them little if nothing that they don't already know. 

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There’s so much more space in the NBA that it might as well be a different game from college.  Ivey will be hell on wheels to stay in front of one on one in that environment.  If he’s the poor shooting idiot he was tonight, he still has a Russell Westbrook ceiling.  If he makes better decisions and improves the jumper, it’s more like a Ja Morant ceiling.

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32 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

There’s so much more space in the NBA that it might as well be a different game from college.  Ivey will be hell on wheels to stay in front of one on one in that environment.  If he’s the poor shooting idiot he was tonight, he still has a Russell Westbrook ceiling.  If he makes better decisions and improves the jumper, it’s more like a Ja Morant ceiling.

It's a different game to the point it's almost a different sport.

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Ran across this summary of traded picks...

2022 Traded Draft Picks

  • Blazers get Pelicans 1st if it lands between 5-14 (C.J. McCollum trade)
  • Grizzlies get Jazz 1st, top 6 protected (Mike Conley trade)
  • Grizzlies get Lakers 1st via Pelicans, top 10 protected (Anthony Davis trade)
  • Nets get 76ers 1st, unprotected (Harden/Simmons trade)
  • Rockets get Bucks 1st, unprotected (James Harden trade)
  • Rockets get Nets 1st, unprotected (James Harden trade)
  • Rockets get the two most favorable picks of the Nets, Heats, and Rockets first-rounders and the Heat will receive the least favorable of the three.
  • Spurs get Raptors 1st, lottery protected (Goran Dragic trade)
  • Spurs get Celtics 1st, top 4 protected (Derrick White trade)
  • Thunder get Clippers 1st pick, unprotected (Paul George trade)
  • Thunder get Suns 1st round pick (Chris Paul trade)
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On 3/25/2022 at 9:35 PM, longhornmatt said:

There’s so much more space in the NBA that it might as well be a different game from college.  Ivey will be hell on wheels to stay in front of one on one in that environment.  If he’s the poor shooting idiot he was tonight, he still has a Russell Westbrook ceiling.  If he makes better decisions and improves the jumper, it’s more like a Ja Morant ceiling.

he reminds me of Ja as well as Dejounte Murray. the sky is the limit with his special build and athleticism. his speed, his body control, his wingspan, his leaping ability- he's as athletically gifted as any guard prospect ever. add to the fact that he just turned 20, and actually shot a decent clip (36%) from deep, and yeah- he's got crazy potential in the up-and-down, more wide open game of the NBA.

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6 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

he reminds me of Ja as well as Dejounte Murray. the sky is the limit with his special build and athleticism. his speed, his body control, his wingspan, his leaping ability- he's as athletically gifted as any guard prospect ever. add to the fact that he just turned 20, and actually shot a decent clip (36%) from deep, and yeah- he's got crazy potential in the up-and-down, more wide open game of the NBA.

The consensus among the draft guys I follow is he's a notch below Ja in the athleticism department. Ja is on his own tier in the NBA, while Ivey would be in the next tier of guards with elite athleticism who aren't quite as athletic as Ja

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Is Chet the highest Beta prospect we’ve seen in a long ass time?  
You could see him being like a Durant and winning an MVP or you could see him being an injury riddled shit show that can’t stay on the floor and teases with flashes of brilliance but is ultimately a huge disappointment, or anywhere in between. 
I think I’d still take him #1 overall. Typically the title is won in the NBA by a top 5 player paired with a top 25 player or a couple of top 50 type players. 
Because of that you just have to chase upside imo. 

Last team to win a title without a top 5 guy is probably what- San Antonio beating the Heat when Duncan was old and Leonard was young?  
In this century every title team had a no doubt top 5 guy except:

14 spurs (young Leonard- old Duncan) Duncan was 3rd team all nba

06 Heat (Wade)- 2nd team all nba

04 Pistons (ensemble) Ben Wallace- 2nd team  

 

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8 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

There are certain guys that just look and move differently on the court because of their athleticism. Ivey is one of them but he's also very polished and has good bbiq. He's going to be a great pro. 

Yeah. People that can’t see that crack me up. He will be able to get to his spot at any time he wants. He’s got size and athleticism out the ass for his position. He’s got good court vision. His jump shot doesn’t appear to be broken. He’s going to be really good at a minimum. I might take him #2. This is a guard/shot creator league now. No worse than 4 for me. 
This is a really interesting class and I think it’s going to be good, and better than last years class which was outstanding. The NBA is in a really good place going forward. 

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Posted (edited)

I expect Chet to be a solid pro with a long career, barring injury, but I don't think he's a championship cornerstone guy. Ivey looks like he could be that guy to me. I'm not sure Banchero looks like that guy. I actually like Mathurin a lot and think a team picking him up in the 5-10 range is going to be very happy.

Edited by Llogg
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2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah. People that can’t see that crack me up. He will be able to get to his spot at any time he wants. He’s got size and athleticism out the ass for his position. He’s got good court vision. His jump shot doesn’t appear to be broken. He’s going to be really good at a minimum. I might take him #2. This is a guard/shot creator league now. No worse than 4 for me. 
This is a really interesting class and I think it’s going to be good, and better than last years class which was outstanding. The NBA is in a really good place going forward. 

I was on Jabari Smith early as the best player in this draft, but I'm not so sure any more. It would be tough to pass on Holmgren because he's so highly skilled for a guy that tall and long. Banchero is a very gifted scorer and playmaker, very unique for his size. And Ivey... He's my favorite shooting guard prospect to come out in several years. It's going to be really interesting to see how the lottery shakes out. 

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9 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Ran across this summary of traded picks...

2022 Traded Draft Picks

  • Blazers get Pelicans 1st if it lands between 5-14 (C.J. McCollum trade)
  • Grizzlies get Jazz 1st, top 6 protected (Mike Conley trade)
  • Grizzlies get Lakers 1st via Pelicans, top 10 protected (Anthony Davis trade)
  • Nets get 76ers 1st, unprotected (Harden/Simmons trade)
  • Rockets get Bucks 1st, unprotected (James Harden trade)
  • Rockets get Nets 1st, unprotected (James Harden trade)
  • Rockets get the two most favorable picks of the Nets, Heats, and Rockets first-rounders and the Heat will receive the least favorable of the three.
  • Spurs get Raptors 1st, lottery protected (Goran Dragic trade)
  • Spurs get Celtics 1st, top 4 protected (Derrick White trade)
  • Thunder get Clippers 1st pick, unprotected (Paul George trade)
  • Thunder get Suns 1st round pick (Chris Paul trade)

The Rockets don’t have the Bucks pick this year. It was both last year and next year. They will end up with their own and the Nets pick. 

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The tournament exposed a big concern about Chet's ability to blow by good athletes playing him honestly on defense to get to the rim. It now appears for him to pan out as a top 2-3 player in the draft that he'll need to shoot threes at a high percentage (40% plus, which might be doable for him) so that defenders have to close out on him hard, which would allow him to potentially get to the rim. This is all assuming he's able to adequately put on weight, which isn't a sure thing, but which a team drafting that high will have to buy into. That would give you a swiss army knife winning basketball player due to overall impact, but without being able to just run the offense through him and finding open players because he wouldn't demand double teams, similar to how Draymond, Mobley, or Kirilenko help you win without dominating with the ball

I don't see him being an MVP type, but it's difficult to see any of these top four having that realistic ceiling, unless Chet gets more explosive to the rim, Paolo shows quicker feet on defense, Jabari shows a better ability to get to punish defenders one on one outside of three pointers, and Ivey shows more consistency at being productive on a play by play basis rather than floating around and disappearing (and that probably just gets him to a Donovan Mitchell level)

There's a reason the top of this class is viewed as being a notch below the top guy or two in some other recent past classes 

As a Houston fan, I'm fine with landing any of them, as one as it's one of them and not someone in the next tier 

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1 hour ago, Fud said:

The tournament exposed a big concern about Chet's ability to blow by good athletes playing him honestly on defense to get to the rim. It now appears for him to pan out as a top 2-3 player in the draft that he'll need to shoot threes at a high percentage (40% plus, which might be doable for him) so that defenders have to close out on him hard, which would allow him to potentially get to the rim. This is all assuming he's able to adequately put on weight, which isn't a sure thing, but which a team drafting that high will have to buy into. That would give you a swiss army knife winning basketball player due to overall impact, but without being able to just run the offense through him and finding open players because he wouldn't demand double teams, similar to how Draymond, Mobley, or Kirilenko help you win without dominating with the ball

I don't see him being an MVP type, but it's difficult to see any of these top four having that realistic ceiling, unless Chet gets more explosive to the rim, Paolo shows quicker feet on defense, Jabari shows a better ability to get to punish defenders one on one outside of three pointers, and Ivey shows more consistency at being productive on a play by play basis rather than floating around and disappearing (and that probably just gets him to a Donovan Mitchell level)

There's a reason the top of this class is viewed as being a notch below the top guy or two in some other recent past classes 

As a Houston fan, I'm fine with landing any of them, as one as it's one of them and not someone in the next tier 

I think you are selling Chet's ceiling a bit short.  He could be an incredible help defender, a pretty decent on ball defender, and he could be a solid secondary play maker b/c he's got a pretty decent handle to him.  If he pairs all that with being a 50/40/90 guy that's a pretty special dude.  MVP?  Maybe not.  Definite all star. Definite franchise cornerstone.  Most guys don't get anywhere near their ceiling. But you can definitely see all that stuff from a skinny and undeveloped 19 year old without having to strain yourself too much.  I think that upside is higher than Cade Cunningham's upside.  I wasn't that impressed with his potential ceiling as a 1/1 guy, but his floor is really pretty high.  You'd be petty surprised if he wasn't a multiple time all star and a really solid player for his entire career.  Just doesn't seem like a guy with any bust chance to him. I would have been low key terrified going into the draft about Mobley at 1/1 (b/c there are so many busts that come about b/c teams fall in love with athletic big guys that either don't have a ton of skills or don't love basketball) but in a re-draft I'd probably have Mobley 1/1 today.  Really though, it doesn't hardly look like there was a bad pick in the top 10.  Maybe you could quibble about order but none of those guys look like they are on their way to busting. 

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Posted (edited)

Okie City literally started five G league guys last night at Portland and still won.  (Decided to put tanking plot lines here.)  Some franchises just have winning cultures.  They're tanking harder this season than last, if that's possible, but every night they're playing hard and competitive.  (Meanwhile, Lakers keep getting blown out.)  While that sounds good, might cost them a top 2 pick.

Also, don't discount Shaedon creeping up from what I've read.  Prolly won't crack the top 4 but could easily be #5.  Has the size and all the tools and had he played this year, might be in the top 3.  

Edited by Aqua Buddha
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39 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Okie City literally started five G league guys last night at Portland and still won.  (Decided to put tanking plot lines here.)  Some franchises just have winning cultures.  They're tanking harder this season than last, if that's possible, but every night they're playing hard and competitive.  (Meanwhile, Lakers keep getting blown out.)  While that sounds good, might cost them a top 2 pick.

Also, don't discount Shaedon creeping up from what I've read.  Prolly won't crack the top 4 but could easily be #5.  Has the size and all the tools and had he played this year, might be in the top 3.  

Shaedon seems likely to be in the top five, especially if Griffin doesn't regain his athleticism 

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46 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I think you are selling Chet's ceiling a bit short.  He could be an incredible help defender, a pretty decent on ball defender, and he could be a solid secondary play maker b/c he's got a pretty decent handle to him.  If he pairs all that with being a 50/40/90 guy that's a pretty special dude.  MVP?  Maybe not.  Definite all star. Definite franchise cornerstone.  Most guys don't get anywhere near their ceiling. But you can definitely see all that stuff from a skinny and undeveloped 19 year old without having to strain yourself too much.  I think that upside is higher than Cade Cunningham's upside.  I wasn't that impressed with his potential ceiling as a 1/1 guy, but his floor is really pretty high.  You'd be petty surprised if he wasn't a multiple time all star and a really solid player for his entire career.  Just doesn't seem like a guy with any bust chance to him. I would have been low key terrified going into the draft about Mobley at 1/1 (b/c there are so many busts that come about b/c teams fall in love with athletic big guys that either don't have a ton of skills or don't love basketball) but in a re-draft I'd probably have Mobley 1/1 today.  Really though, it doesn't hardly look like there was a bad pick in the top 10.  Maybe you could quibble about order but none of those guys look like they are on their way to busting. 

Most of this doesn't disagree with what I posted. I said that Chet could pan out as a top two or three pick, and put his realistic ceiling at sub-MVP. I think that's fair 

Cade can potentially be a Luka type if he can knock down threes. That ceiling is higher than what Chet profiles to, I think

Mobley is a little big higher than Chet since he can switch defensively better than maybe anyone in the league

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i think the sure thing in regards to chet is he is going to be a good defensive player.  i don't know what exactly he'll be offensively (which is definitely a mark against him compared to the other 3 guys in the top 4) and i have absolutely no idea what to think about his body, but i think even in a worst case scenario he will be a very good defensive player in the league for a long time.  

if i had the #1 pick and was only picking on who i thought had the highest ceiling, i'd probably go with ivey.  but as a rockets fan adding fit into the equation, i'd rank chet and jabari smith as my top two players on the board.

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14 minutes ago, Fud said:

Most of this doesn't disagree with what I posted. I said that Chet could pan out as a top two or three pick, and put his realistic ceiling at sub-MVP. I think that's fair 

Cade can potentially be a Luka type if he can knock down threes. That ceiling is higher than what Chet profiles to, I think

Mobley is a little big higher than Chet since he can switch defensively better than maybe anyone in the league

Yeah- I wasn't trying to disagree that's why I said I thought you were selling Chet's ceiling just a little bit short (as in- we mostly agree).  I don't think his ceiling is sub MVP. I don't think it's quite Durant level, but he's the closest analog to a guy who if he hit his 100 out of 100 potential I've seen since KD to KD.  That's an MVP upside- to me.  

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2 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

i think the sure thing in regards to chet is he is going to be a good defensive player.  i don't know what exactly he'll be offensively (which is definitely a mark against him compared to the other 3 guys in the top 4) and i have absolutely no idea what to think about his body, but i think even in a worst case scenario he will be a very good defensive player in the league for a long time.  

if i had the #1 pick and was only picking on who i thought had the highest ceiling, i'd probably go with ivey.  but as a rockets fan adding fit into the equation, i'd rank chet and jabari smith as my top two players on the board.

Same.  Ivey could be really really special but as a Rockets fan I think I'd stay away from him if I was picking top 3.
This years class, I think, will be influenced more by who picks where than the typical class where there is more of a consensus I believe.  

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Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- I wasn't trying to disagree that's why I said I thought you were selling Chet's ceiling just a little bit short (as in- we mostly agree).  I don't think his ceiling is sub MVP. I don't think it's quite Durant level, but he's the closest analog to a guy who if he hit his 100 out of 100 potential I've seen since KD to KD.  That's an MVP upside- to me.  

I just don't think he can get to the rim like KD does. He struggled to blow by athletic collegiate centers vs Memphis and Arkansas, while Durant would blow by athletic guards

I'm not sure if there's a close comp to what he is because he's pretty unique, but I don't think KD is it

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2 minutes ago, Fud said:

I just don't think he can get to the rim like KD does. He struggled to blow by athletic collegiate centers vs Memphis and Arkansas, while Durant would blow by athletic guards

I'm not sure if there's a close comp to what he is because he's pretty unique, but I don't think KD is it

It's probably the length, skinny-ness, good shooting ability, and pretty great handle for a 7' plus guy that makes me think KD, but yeah, you are right on unique and unique is scary. If his body doesn't break down I can't imagine him not being a really good defensive player (almost from the word go), but man, that body is just one huge red flag.  Hope he has a long career as it will be fascinating to me to see how that plays out if he doesn't get injured.  

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Holgren is built like a marathoner. The trainers would say he's a hard gainer. I dont see him putting on much good weight. His body type cant handle it. 

Its a shame because the skills are there but I see a Porzingis type injured dude in a couple years. 

 

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1 hour ago, Fud said:

I just don't think he can get to the rim like KD does. He struggled to blow by athletic collegiate centers vs Memphis and Arkansas, while Durant would blow by athletic guards

I'm not sure if there's a close comp to what he is because he's pretty unique, but I don't think KD is it

He doesn’t remind me of KD at all for the exact reasons you said. He’s a floor spacing four and a PnR guy on either the roll or the pop. He may develop more offensively but right now I think he looks like a number two on a title team. His defense and rim protection will be great right off the bat. His offense will work really well with a team that spaces and has a scoring guard (OKC). He may not have the highest ceiling in the draft (Ivey or Jabari) but I think the chances of him busting are really really low.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, hobbes2702 said:

He doesn’t remind me of KD at all for the exact reasons you said. He’s a floor spacing four and a PnR guy on either the roll or the pop. He may develop more offensively but right now I think he looks like a number two on a title team. His defense and rim protection will be great right off the bat. His offense will work really well with a team that spaces and has a scoring guard (OKC). He may not have the highest ceiling in the draft (Ivey or Jabari) but I think the chances of him busting are really really low.

I can’t imagine looking at that frame and not being scared to death of injury problems. And just to reiterate- #2 on a title team is more often than not an all nba caliber type guy. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I can’t imagine looking at that frame and not being scared to death of injury problems. And just to reiterate- #2 on a title team is more often than not an all nba caliber type guy. 

You can’t predict injury problems with any sort of certainty so I don’t think there’s any reason to waste time on it. People said the same about KD, KG, KAJ and every other tall skinny guy.

He’s going to be a 50/40/90 guy for the most part, blocks shots, and can switch on defense. There’s just not much downside to his game at all.

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Chet has some rare ball skills for a guy his height but he just doesn't move the way KD did. His handles and shooting ability are very good while Durant's handle is/was pretty much unprecedented for a near 7 footer - and he isn't as athletic or springy on top of that. Whoever said that Chet just can't get to the rim the way KD did summed it up pretty well I think.

He's a much better defender than KD was at the same age though and probably a higher IQ player (for sure he is on defense). I think he does similar things to KD and visually reminds people of Durant a bit but I don't think he's going to be a similar player necessarily. Also I doubt he ever hits 50/40/90. He shot 72% from the stripe this year. 

I really think the top 4 will just come down to who gets which pick. It's pretty much confirmed that teams have these guys in different orders - with quite a few having Chet #1 iirc. 

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I recall people questioning whether skinny guys like KD or maybe KG could stand up to big bodied NBA PFs and Cs, but I don’t remember people worrying that their foot and leg bones would fracture on the reg like many do Chet. 

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12 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

The Lakers look like they’re heading for the lottery. Does anyone doubt that their 5% chance of getting a top 4 pick is going to hit?

New Orleans owns their pick and currently has a 25% chance at the top 4.

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What will be interesting is the draft order.  A lot of these teams have a guard already and if they get in the top 3, they'll take one of the three bigs regardless of who is better.  Okie City might be only one who might think about taking a guard.  They could move Giddey to SF or something but if given the choice, they'd take one of the bigs, too.  

This draft class seems pretty good, actually, like last years.  There may not be one big star but 7-10 guys who could be pretty good.  Usually there are some busts, sure, but this years rookies are solid.  Once they got used to the NBA game (generally takes a few months), they can all play.

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1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

This draft class seems pretty good, actually, like last years.  There may not be one big star but 7-10 guys who could be pretty good.  Usually there are some busts, sure, but this years rookies are solid.  Once they got used to the NBA game (generally takes a few months), they can all play.

Last year's is shaping up to be a very good, once in 5 years type draft. But - there is soooo much talent right now at every level that classes like that might start becoming the norm. Still - of the top 8 guys last year Suggs is the only one that you'd think may or may not be a good NBA player. To have 7 of the top 8 prove themselves before the end of their first season is pretty crazy. Go back one year and you have Patrick Williams, Wiseman, Okungwu and Toppin all in the top 8. A lot more meh. 

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7 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Last year's is shaping up to be a very good, once in 5 years type draft. But - there is soooo much talent right now at every level that classes like that might start becoming the norm. Still - of the top 8 guys last year Suggs is the only one that you'd think may or may not be a good NBA player. To have 7 of the top 8 prove themselves before the end of their first season is pretty crazy. Go back one year and you have Patrick Williams, Wiseman, Okungwu and Toppin all in the top 8. A lot more meh. 

That's what I noticed going back and looking recent drafts.  A few good guys but a lot of average ones, which has been the norm.  Supposedly, next year's draft is even more loaded but who knows?

Even guys later in the draft like Mann for Okie City and Sengun for Houston can play.  To your point, maybe that's the new norm now?

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2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

That's what I noticed going back and looking recent drafts.  A few good guys but a lot of average ones, which has been the norm.  Supposedly, next year's draft is even more loaded but who knows?

Even guys later in the draft like Mann for Okie City and Sengun for Houston can play.  To your point, maybe that's the new norm now?

Well it's interesting because as the level of play goes up how good you need to be as a rookie to make an impact goes up. We may be in a window where the rookies are sort of outpacing that (kind of like when Magic and Bird came in and lit the league on fire - although not to that degree of specific, individual brilliance). So maybe it calms down a bit and we get a stinker in a couple of years. 

Also - the pool continues to get bigger as the sport increases in popularity internationally. So I'm not sure we'll see one of the "worst drafts ever" for awhile (like go look at 2013 and 2014 - woof) but I also think hitting on 7/8 (and maybe 8/8 - Suggs isn't the worst rookie ever it's just a little early to get a read on him) will continue to be rare. 

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32 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Well it's interesting because as the level of play goes up how good you need to be as a rookie to make an impact goes up. We may be in a window where the rookies are sort of outpacing that (kind of like when Magic and Bird came in and lit the league on fire - although not to that degree of specific, individual brilliance). So maybe it calms down a bit and we get a stinker in a couple of years. 

Also - the pool continues to get bigger as the sport increases in popularity internationally. So I'm not sure we'll see one of the "worst drafts ever" for awhile (like go look at 2013 and 2014 - woof) but I also think hitting on 7/8 (and maybe 8/8 - Suggs isn't the worst rookie ever it's just a little early to get a read on him) will continue to be rare. 

Also, I think it's the international and domestic guys are becoming more of the same now.  International guys are now physical and domestic guys can now shoot.  Most anyone can shoot now, really.  

Good point about the quality of the rookies being a byproduct of the quality of the league competition.  

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1 hour ago, ztejas said:

Last year's is shaping up to be a very good, once in 5 years type draft. But - there is soooo much talent right now at every level that classes like that might start becoming the norm. Still - of the top 8 guys last year Suggs is the only one that you'd think may or may not be a good NBA player. To have 7 of the top 8 prove themselves before the end of their first season is pretty crazy. Go back one year and you have Patrick Williams, Wiseman, Okungwu and Toppin all in the top 8. A lot more meh. 

The people I follow think this draft is weak, after the top three or four. There's not an elite elite prospect. There are three or four in the next tier, maybe five if you count Sharpe and if you like Ivey, and then there are ~7 more solid picks, and then it drops off steeply. The draft is deep in rosterable centers, but that's the easiest position to fill nowadays, and so they aren't valuable in the draft. 

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