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Posted

He wants to bring us 50 year mortgages.

And 15 year car notes.

If you were to write up a plan for "make Americans economic slaves for life," it would look pretty much exactly like the last 10 months have gone.

Fucking amazing.  The biggest serial buttfucking ever administered to working Americans, and they fucking love him.....because he's mean to mexicans and black people.  

This country is getting everything it deserves.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:


This is a universally reviled economy that Trump and his party are taking the blame for.

Won't matter.

Because there was once a trans volleyball player in Possum Pecker, Wisconsin, and brown and black people are scary.

Oh, and ICE (which will by then be a fully functioning Trump Police Force) will actively terrorize and intimidate voters who would dare show up at Dem precincts in swing states/districts in 2026.

Just pick up a book on "what right wing dictatorships do to seize and solidify power."  We're literally running all the plays.  There is no mystery here.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Won't matter.

Because there was once a trans volleyball player in Possum Pecker, Wisconsin, and brown and black people are scary.

Oh, and ICE (which will by then be a fully functioning Trump Police Force) will actively terrorize and intimidate voters who would dare show up at Dem precincts in swing states/districts in 2026.

Just pick up a book on "what right wing dictatorships do to seize and solidify power."  We're literally running all the plays.  There is no mystery here.

YES THAT WILL MATTER. THERE WILL BE ELECTIONS, REPUBLICANS WILL LOSE ALL OF THEM. 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

YES THAT WILL MATTER. THERE WILL BE ELECTIONS, REPUBLICANS WILL LOSE ALL OF THEM. 

 

5 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

I'm with Zona.  The movement is real and it is gaining momentum.  Foot on the gas, people!

my-child-oh-my-child.png

God.  Y'all who continue to have ANY optimism in this timeline blow me away.

You are forgetting the ironclad rules of this century:

It only gets worse.

There is no bottom.

 

Your fucking Pollyana optimism bullshit?

mj-michael-jordan.gif

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Posted

i think it starts to matter pretty quickly when mass amounts of people can't afford food and meemaw and peepaw have to choose between their house or a doctors appointment.  this is the pain and suffering they voted for and we all warned them about.  i got my popcorn ready.

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Posted
18 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

my-child-oh-my-child.png

God.  Y'all who continue to have ANY optimism in this timeline blow me away.

You are forgetting the ironclad rules of this century:

It only gets worse.

There is no bottom.

 

Your fucking Pollyana optimism bullshit?

mj-michael-jordan.gif

All I know is if A&M wins the national championship in college football this year then that is the bottom and I am not sure I want to see what is below that.

Also, none of the pain Americans feel will be blamed on the Republicans.  Remember, they are all getting their news from sources that will find a way to blame the dems, illegal aliens, black and brown people, Jews, Muslims, communists, socialists, Antifa,  etc….  Thinking the American people are rational and intelligent is your first mistake. 

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

my-child-oh-my-child.png

God.  Y'all who continue to have ANY optimism in this timeline blow me away.

You are forgetting the ironclad rules of this century:

It only gets worse.

There is no bottom.

 

Your fucking Pollyana optimism bullshit?

mj-michael-jordan.gif

Absolutely not, Republicans are going to get destroyed, and I'm looking forward to it.

From a certain point of view, there is indeed no bottom, for Republicans and MAGA

Posted
1 minute ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

All I know is if A&M wins the national championship in college football this year then that is the bottom and I am not sure I want to see what is below that.

Also, none of the pain Americans feel will be blamed on the Republicans.  Remember, they are all getting their news from sources that will find a way to blame the dems, illegal aliens, black and brown people, Jews, Muslims, communists, socialists, Antifa,  etc….  Thinking the American people are rational and intelligent is your first mistake. 

That's why I use the term "unimaginable levels."  The pain has to be so bad that the people's reflexive response is "WE GOTTA MAKE A CHANGE!"  Any change will do, just make a change.  This is not a sophisticated play.  Let the situation become so intolerable that they'll pull the lever for any change.  When you're in a building being consumed by fire, you jump out.  Well, we the people are in that building right now....we need more people to feel the scorching life-threatening heat.

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Posted
41 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

I'm with Zona.  The movement is real and it is gaining momentum.  Foot on the gas, people!

Was gaining momentum.  Was until late Sunday when the shitastic 8 sold us out for jack shit.

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Posted
24 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

All I know is if A&M wins the national championship in college football this year then that is the bottom and I am not sure I want to see what is below that.

Also, none of the pain Americans feel will be blamed on the Republicans.  Remember, they are all getting their news from sources that will find a way to blame the dems, illegal aliens, black and brown people, Jews, Muslims, communists, socialists, Antifa,  etc….  Thinking the American people are rational and intelligent is your first mistake. 

Read the article I posted, they're blaming republicans.

Posted
13 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Was gaining momentum.  Was until late Sunday when the shitastic 8 sold us out for jack shit.

Democrats are going to suffer zero consequences for the shutdown or how it ended.

Posted
36 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

i think it starts to matter pretty quickly when mass amounts of people can't afford food and meemaw and peepaw have to choose between their house or a doctors appointment.  this is the pain and suffering they voted for and we all warned them about.  i got my popcorn ready.

This.  Easily misguided people only give a fuck about some trans kid winning a swim meet in Possum Pecker, Wisconsin when things are going relatively well for them.  When that space in their minds is currently being occupied by the price of rent, gas and groceries, they have less time to hate some random that doesn't affect them on a day to day basis.

This is not to say we shouldn't be wary of the authoritarian nature of the current admin, we most definitely should.  But it is no longer "Joe Biden's economy" and the scales are falling - albeit slowly from some of our fellow citizens eyes.  

Tempered optimism over here.  But there is a lot of time between now and November 2026 for things to happen both good and bad.

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Posted
53 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Suffering zero consequences isn’t the same as gaining momentum. 

We aren't blowing it or losing any, and I guarantee things get worse for MAGA and Republicans next year. I think we are in a nice median spot where tremendous and irreparable damage has occurred, but not to the point where Donald Trump and Republicans actually do anything about it. Back to the slowly grinding down his movement.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Don’t worry tho. Gov doesn’t do job reports anymore 

Literal words, from our literal president, during the first 6 months of a literal pandemic:

“If we stopped testing right now, we'd have very few cases, if any.”

 

If there are no longer any facts and data, then you can't criticize them using facts and data.

big-brain-point-finger-at-forehead.gif

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Posted
34 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Who needs to hide uncomfortable facts when you can just deny reality?

 

Goddam he’s so Collin Robinson it’s insane

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Posted
4 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

i think it starts to matter pretty quickly when mass amounts of people can't afford food and meemaw and peepaw have to choose between their house or a doctors appointment.  this is the pain and suffering they voted for and we all warned them about.  i got my popcorn ready.

Yeah and it was about to start happening and then the Dems caved. 

4 hours ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

All I know is if A&M wins the national championship in college football this year then that is the bottom and I am not sure I want to see what is below that.

For real, I can’t handle this. They must be stopped. 

Posted
2 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Who needs to hide uncomfortable facts when you can just deny reality?

 

The Party told you to ignore the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I could’ve called this without the quote. Private equity is destroying this country. It is the nail in the coffin with end stage capitalism. 

Its core mission is "enshittification."  Squeeze and extract every drop of blood you can TODAY, damn tomorrow, and who gives a fuck what happens to the empty husk then, PE will have cashed out and be long-gone by then.

Over, and over, and over, we are choosing, empowering, incentivizing, and unleashing mechanisms and phenomena that are utterly counterproductive for having a healthy, functioning society.

If it sucks out dollars faster than ever before, it's good.  If it does anything BUT that, it's bad.  That's fucking unsustainable, but nobody is listening, and nobody cares.

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Posted

Some more enshittification coming your way, owing to the Trump economy working EXACTLY as designed.  Remember, the giant spiked dildo being rammed up the people's ass so the billionaires can extract a bit more blood from each of us is a FEATURE, not a bug, of the Trump economy:

Quote

The organization, which represents state directors of the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, said electricity and natural gas prices have been climbing at more than twice the rate of inflation, driven by higher gas prices, growing demand from data centers and grid maintenance.

“Electric utilities are rebuilding the grid, and that’s pushing up prices,” Wolfe said. “Data centers are also placing new demands on the grid, which is driving up costs even more.”

Enjoy paying more for electricity and to heat your house this winter, peasants.  It's the least you can do to enrich the regime and its cronies.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Some more enshittification coming your way, owing to the Trump economy working EXACTLY as designed.  Remember, the giant spiked dildo being rammed up the people's ass so the billionaires can extract a bit more blood from each of us is a FEATURE, not a bug, of the Trump economy:

Enjoy paying more for electricity and to heat your house this winter, peasants.  It's the least you can do to enrich the regime and its cronies.

Don't kink shame.

Posted

As someone who has built their career in the data center space I'm a little conflicted on the topic.

What I can tell you is that the future of data center power with be SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) but there are hurdles to clear before they are widely impemented.  Data centers built with SMRs will be off of the traditional electrical grid.

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Posted
39 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

As someone who has built their career in the data center space I'm a little conflicted on the topic.

What I can tell you is that the future of data center power with be SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) but there are hurdles to clear before they are widely impemented.  Data centers built with SMRs will be off of the traditional electrical grid.

Yeah, side note....I wonder if there's a vulture-type play to be made here.

I know that several data centers are being built in connection with independent generation facilities/projects nearby, subject to Power Supply Agreements with the data center.  So, it looks like this: Data Center Delta, LLC (an independent LLC, owned by a larger outfit, or even a partnership/consortium of outfits under outfits) contracts with Generator Company Beta, LLC (an independent LLC, owned by a larger outfit like AEP, or some similar arrangement).  The contract calls for Generator Co to construct a 200 MW facility to supply power to Data Center.   Now, here in Texas, that generation is also going to be hooked up to the grid, per ERCOT requirements.  But its contractual purpose is to provide dedicated power to the data center.

What happens when Data Center goes tits up?  In bankruptcy, that PSA with Generator Co is repudiated, and Generator Co no longer has a steady source of revenue that makes the numbers on that facility (financed in part with debt) work.  So, independent Generator Co files for bankruptcy as well.  

Will there be opportunities to sweep in and acquire these orphan (as in, they no longer have a PSA to support them) generation assets?  Because, that asset -- if not overly encumbered by debt (now canceled via the bankruptcy) -- may be a revenue-positive asset as just another generation facility in whatever grid it may be found (ERCOT, MISO, SPP, etc.).  Or, will that already be pre-packaged -- the parent co (like AEP) will acquire its own orphan in the bankruptcy process?

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah, side note....I wonder if there's a vulture-type play to be made here.

I know that several data centers are being built in connection with independent generation facilities/projects nearby, subject to Power Supply Agreements with the data center.  So, it looks like this: Data Center Delta, LLC (an independent LLC, owned by a larger outfit, or even a partnership/consortium of outfits under outfits) contracts with Generator Company Beta, LLC (an independent LLC, owned by a larger outfit like AEP, or some similar arrangement).  The contract calls for Generator Co to construct a 200 MW facility to supply power to Data Center.   Now, here in Texas, that generation is also going to be hooked up to the grid, per ERCOT requirements.  But its contractual purpose is to provide dedicated power to the data center.

What happens when Data Center goes tits up?  In bankruptcy, that PSA with Generator Co is repudiated, and Generator Co no longer has a steady source of revenue that makes the numbers on that facility (financed in part with debt) work.  So, independent Generator Co files for bankruptcy as well.  

Will there be opportunities to sweep in and acquire these orphan (as in, they no longer have a PSA to support them) generation assets?  Because, that asset -- if not overly encumbered by debt (now canceled via the bankruptcy) -- may be a revenue-positive asset as just another generation facility in whatever grid it may be found (ERCOT, MISO, SPP, etc.).  Or, will that already be pre-packaged -- the parent co (like AEP) will acquire its own orphan in the bankruptcy process?

I shouldn't be saying anything, but Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Data.

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Posted
23 hours ago, Zonahorn said:

Absolutely not, Republicans are going to get destroyed, and I'm looking forward to it.

From a certain point of view, there is indeed no bottom, for Republicans and MAGA

tumblr_oll8u3V8rm1sl21koo1_500.gifv

If we have something like fair elections in 2026 and 2028, Trump and Republicans will be historically unpopular and Democrats should be able to make gains that are unprecedented in the last 50 years. There will still be maga die hard dumbshits, the type that were blaming Jimmy Carter for the economic crash of 2008 and there will be enough of them to stop Republican bleeding in the Senate considering the unfavorable map in 2026. All best case scenario as I see it, but Democrats have a good chance of having Presidency and both houses of Congress in 2028 assuming fair elections and all that. After that, they'll need to deliver on substantial changes that help regular people despite the maga stacked courts and a free press that's either dead or consolidated under the thumb of mega billionaire oligarchs. Attack the mega billionaires, monopolies, corruption, money in politics, and the post truth culture of dishonesty. Champion the working class, affordability and access, and the revival of the American Dream. Of course, Democratic leadership will never do any of that because they want to keep all that corporate cash. The voters will have short memories in the 2030 midterms, same as in 2010 and we'll only have postponed permanent oligarchy. I'm going to live it up in the time that's left before I'm condemned to the USA, XAmazon Fulfillment Labor Camp whether that's next year or in the early 2030s. That's my probably too optimistic take and my contribution to balancing the Force.    

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Posted
On 11/11/2025 at 10:47 AM, Brisketexan said:

Because there was once a trans volleyball player in Possum Pecker, Wisconsin, and brown and black people are scary.

I'm stealing this from Tim Miller, but I think the trans shit only plays when it's deployed against the Dems when they are in power.  

I think if they try to shift the conversation back toward cultural issues it's only helping the Dems in the 2016 midterms.  "The GOP wants to talk about high school sports, I'm here to talk about jobs, health care costs and groceries.  You know, the things that actually impact you."

19 hours ago, HenryJames said:

 

Walgreens might be the one business I patronize in which the staff look the most miserable, in particular the pharmacist who probably thought this would be a good, safe career choice 20 years ago.  

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Posted

Nice summary of the pitfalls and warnings from the Economist:

Quote

The seven deadly sins of corporate exuberance

A frenzy of financial innovation has ensnared America Inc. What could go wrong?

SaveShare

Summary

: Mona Eing & Michael Meissner

Nov 12th 2025|New York|8 min read

Just as great cities reflect the genius of their architects, great financial manias reflect the folly of their besuited draughtsmen. New ways of raising and spending capital beguile ambitious bosses and propel markets. This time is no different. Silicon Valley, Wall Street and Washington are conspiring in one of American capitalism’s great money-making eras. The value of America’s listed companies relative to the size of the economy is the highest it has ever been.

Wrapped up in the madness, America’s chief executives are embracing seven risky financial strategies. These reflect the obsessions of the moment, from artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies to private capital and performative patriotism. Some have echoes in past booms, while others are entirely novel. All involve jaw-dropping feats of paper engineering—and offer clues as to the nature of the coming crash.

1. Lust for crypto

President Donald Trump has eagerly promoted the cryptocurrency industry during his second term. Corporate America has followed. Never has something treated so dismissively in boardrooms been subsequently embraced so enthusiastically. America’s biggest banks and retailers say they are now considering creating their own so-called stablecoins pegged to the dollar. Some companies have even transformed their treasury departments from clearing houses for receipts into hubs of speculation. The most notable is Strategy (MicroStrategy, until recently), the leader of the “crypto treasury” movement. Once a dotcom darling, it now exists solely to buy bitcoin. The company owns nearly $70bn of the stuff, paid for by aggressively issuing debt and equity. The business is valuable because investors struggle to get leveraged exposure to bitcoin, say its cheerleaders. Yet more than 100 companies are doing something similar.

2. Retail envy

Such schemes are partly designed to appeal to America’s indefatigable retail investors. Their main impulse is to buy the dip. But some of them will buy anything. Meme stocks are back, and bosses are playing to the gallery. Elon Musk has a fanatical crowd of retail investors to thank for his $1trn pay deal at Tesla. Palantir’s frothy valuation is a product of the herd instincts of amateur traders. Tapping into this meme-inflected world is also possible for smaller firms like American Eagle. The clothing brand’s stock is up by more than 70% since putting Sydney Sweeney, a blue-eyed, blonde-haired actress, in an advertisement. Companies can also harness the retail crowd to go public quickly, and with little scrutiny, by merging with a special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC). After a pandemic-era boom, these shell entities, favoured by retail investors, are again flooding the market. More than 150 are expected to go public this year.

3. “Lazy” circularity

When markets soar, so does their tolerance for corporate complexity. Silicon Valley is testing the limits, with the AI ecosystem now characterised by circular spending and webs of cross-holdings. Consider Nvidia, the leading supplier of AI chips. It owns stakes in CoreWeave, which buys its chips to rent out to others, and is investing in xAI, which buys Nvidia’s chips to run its models. It will also put up to $100bn into OpenAI, giving the maker of ChatGPT more cash to buy Nvidia’s chips. For its part, OpenAI—which is also part-owned by Microsoft, its biggest supplier of computing power—has a stake in CoreWeave and could soon own 10% of Advanced Micro Devices, Nvidia’s main competitor.

Enthusiasts say all this is little different from the “vendor financing” arrangements common in other industries. Cynics see parallels to the “round-tripping” practices of energy traders and internet firms in the late 1990s. In such deals—known as “Lazy Susans”—often no goods or services were actually exchanged, though both parties recorded revenue to hit earnings targets. Which label sticks to the AI deals will depend on whether companies follow through with their investment promises.

4. Furious dealmaking

Every boom is defined by its mega-mergers, from the buy-out of RJR Nabisco, a consumer-products conglomerate, in 1989 to the merger of AOL and Time Warner in 2001. This year cheap credit and regulatory easing have revived the takeover business—no matter the value destroyed during previous waves. Since the summer American bosses have inked the largest ever railway merger, data-centre acquisition and leveraged buy-out. This month Kimberly-Clark, the purveyor of Huggies, agreed to pay nearly $50bn for Kenvue, the maker of Tylenol, in the biggest consumer-products takeover in a decade.

5. Debt gluttony

To finance its splurge on data centres and takeovers, America Inc is feasting on debt. Meta, a Silicon Valley giant, recently sold $30bn of bonds to pay for its data-centre investments, the biggest such deal of the year. To power the endless rows of servers AI models require, electricity providers are also borrowing heavily.

In the process, companies have been experimenting with more novel forms of debt. Private credit, provided by an investment company rather than a bank, has surged in popularity. Sometimes private loans look similar to those made by traditional lenders. But often they are more creative. One innovation pioneered by Apollo, a private-markets colossus, involves making a loan considered by rating agencies to be an “equity” investment for the recipient (leaving its credit-rating intact) while furnishing the lender’s balance-sheet with investment-grade debt.

As borrowing increases, it will be further obfuscated. As well as its bond offering, another $27bn of largely debt-funded investment tied to Meta’s new data centre in Louisiana will sit off its balance-sheet. xAI is planning something similar.

6. Patriotic pride

If the mania has an anthem, it is “Born in the USA”. American companies are showcasing their patriotism with splashy but vague investment pledges. JPMorgan Chase has said it will bankroll companies involved in “security and resiliency” to the tune of $1.5trn. Some bosses have gone further and shacked up with Uncle Sam. America’s government now possesses: a “golden share” in US Steel, a faded industrial icon; 10% of Intel, a struggling chipmaker; and minority investments in three mining companies. It could soon own a large stake in Westinghouse, a maker of nuclear reactors. Bankers say that American companies with even tangential connections to national “resilience” are eager to make deals with the White House. OpenAI’s finance chief recently suggested that the government provide a “backstop” for her industry’s data-centre borrowing binge, before walking back the comment.

7. Avaricious fraud

A final sin could soon rear its ugly head. Every hot market in the past has concealed fraud. Like with the accounting scandals at WorldCom or Enron, it is unlikely to be unearthed until a correction begins. But the conditions for wrongdoing are ripe. Accounting practices for AI, crypto and private credit are all sufficiently flexible and opaque. And guardrails are wobbling. Activist investors don’t hold the sway they once did in public markets. Immigration enforcement is a bigger priority for the White House than white-collar crime.

Judgment day

For now, Wall Street expects the good times to continue. Credit spreads remain tight. Equity-market volatility is low. Retail investors show no signs of flagging. Last week Robinhood, an online broker, said that its clients’ borrowing had risen by 153% this year. The makings of a bubble often become clear well before it pops. Alan Greenspan warned of “irrational exuberance” in 1996, some four years before the next crash came.

Yet in some corners the mood is beginning to sour. Take crypto. Earlier this year Strategy traded at more than double the value of its bitcoin holdings. As the price of bitcoin has fallen, the company’s shares have fallen even further. Its premium has eroded to around 20%. If it is unable to sell more shares, it may need to liquidate its bitcoin holdings to pay steep interest costs. As a large owner, and ever larger champion, of bitcoin, it risks ending up in a downward spiral.

: Mona Eing & Michael Meissner

Worries about credit markets have grown, too. First Brands, a provincial manufacturer of spark plugs, borrowed more than $10bn before collapsing into bankruptcy. Its lenders now accuse it of fraud. Jamie Dimon, the boss of JPMorgan Chase, warned that more “cockroaches” would emerge. Since then a few have scuttled out from under lenders’ loan books. Some business-development companies, a type of private-credit fund, are trading well below the value of their assets. Shares in Blue Owl, a private-credit firm, have fallen by more than 40% from their peak at the start of the year. Markets and regulators have turned on Egan-Jones, one of private credit’s favourite rating agencies. The industry’s use of life-insurance policies to fund investments is also being scrutinised.

Then there is the question of whether Silicon Valley’s colossal spending on AI will pay off before investors lose patience. If it does not, the punishment may be harshest for companies that have succumbed to the seven sins. The consequences, though, would ripple far beyond them. Losses for investors would spill over into consumer spending. Credit markets—and possibly the government—would also bear losses. Parts of the financial system that have hitherto been untested would come under strain. Engineers would be put out of work. But the financial engineers would be to blame. ■

Summary of the 7 deadly sins of our current economic era:

Lust for Crypto

Retail Envy

Lazy circularity

Furious dealmaking

Debt gluttony

Patriotic pride

Avaricious fraud

 

And what's coming:

Judgment day

For now, Wall Street expects the good times to continue. Credit spreads remain tight. Equity-market volatility is low. Retail investors show no signs of flagging. Last week Robinhood, an online broker, said that its clients’ borrowing had risen by 153% this year. The makings of a bubble often become clear well before it pops. Alan Greenspan warned of “irrational exuberance” in 1996, some four years before the next crash came.

Yet in some corners the mood is beginning to sour. Take crypto. Earlier this year Strategy traded at more than double the value of its bitcoin holdings. As the price of bitcoin has fallen, the company’s shares have fallen even further. Its premium has eroded to around 20%. If it is unable to sell more shares, it may need to liquidate its bitcoin holdings to pay steep interest costs. As a large owner, and ever larger champion, of bitcoin, it risks ending up in a downward spiral.

Worries about credit markets have grown, too. First Brands, a provincial manufacturer of spark plugs, borrowed more than $10bn before collapsing into bankruptcy. Its lenders now accuse it of fraud. Jamie Dimon, the boss of JPMorgan Chase, warned that more “cockroaches” would emerge. Since then a few have scuttled out from under lenders’ loan books. Some business-development companies, a type of private-credit fund, are trading well below the value of their assets. Shares in Blue Owl, a private-credit firm, have fallen by more than 40% from their peak at the start of the year. Markets and regulators have turned on Egan-Jones, one of private credit’s favourite rating agencies. The industry’s use of life-insurance policies to fund investments is also being scrutinised.

Then there is the question of whether Silicon Valley’s colossal spending on AI will pay off before investors lose patience. If it does not, the punishment may be harshest for companies that have succumbed to the seven sins. The consequences, though, would ripple far beyond them. Losses for investors would spill over into consumer spending. Credit markets—and possibly the government—would also bear losses. Parts of the financial system that have hitherto been untested would come under strain. Engineers would be put out of work. But the financial engineers would be to blame. ■

 

One thing it left out was the transformation of the American economy, in large part, to a fasicst loyalist economy.  Want to get your merger approved?  Pay the vig to the regime.  Want to get regulatory approval for a permit, license, etc.?  Pay the vig to the regime.  Want to keep the DOJ out of your obviously shady business?  Vig.  Etc. etc. etc.  Large enterprises have to pay the vig both to obtain favorable treatment, AND to avoid punishing treatment.  They must pay both protection money AND bribes, with the same dollars.

That phenomenon skews the fuck out of the market.

The correction crash here is going to be insanely chaotic and wide-reaching, and here's the cherry on top: when it happens, we have literally the least competent, least qualified regime and operators within it in our nation's history.  Our plane is going to hit a flock of geese and flame out all engines, and instead of having Sully on the stick, we have a team of deranged monkeys in ill-fitting pilot suits in the cockpit.  

 

Posted
On 11/12/2025 at 7:37 AM, VABuckeye said:

As someone who has built their career in the data center space I'm a little conflicted on the topic.

What I can tell you is that the future of data center power with be SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) but there are hurdles to clear before they are widely impemented.  Data centers built with SMRs will be off of the traditional electrical grid.

As someone with experience in mission critical and power generation, that future is uncertain and way the fuck out there. I think big techs are just using it as a distraction from the near-term shit show that will absolutely happen, assuming the bubble doesn't pop first.  And any thermal power plant, particularly nuke, will need to be tied into the grid.  You can't cycle them to match a data center load. These have way more inertia than a diesel gen bank, so stand alone is impractical IMO.  You also need to consider the siting issues onsite nukes would have.  Show of hands - who would feel comfortable with Facebook installing a nuclear facility within 2 miles of their house?  10 miles?  When folks use the term "small modular reactor", they imagine a miniature power plant.  But the overall load of an AI data center will be consistent with a traditional nuke plant.  SMRs have some advantages, but lose economies of scale if you are packing dozens of them on site.  I am not confident they will win out against more traditional designs.  I am intrigued by Terra Power's approach, which doesn't swap out fuel.  But, again, way the fuck out there and uncertain. 

 

On 11/12/2025 at 8:25 AM, Brisketexan said:

Yeah, side note....I wonder if there's a vulture-type play to be made here.

I know that several data centers are being built in connection with independent generation facilities/projects nearby, subject to Power Supply Agreements with the data center.  So, it looks like this: Data Center Delta, LLC (an independent LLC, owned by a larger outfit, or even a partnership/consortium of outfits under outfits) contracts with Generator Company Beta, LLC (an independent LLC, owned by a larger outfit like AEP, or some similar arrangement).  The contract calls for Generator Co to construct a 200 MW facility to supply power to Data Center.   Now, here in Texas, that generation is also going to be hooked up to the grid, per ERCOT requirements.  But its contractual purpose is to provide dedicated power to the data center.

What happens when Data Center goes tits up?  In bankruptcy, that PSA with Generator Co is repudiated, and Generator Co no longer has a steady source of revenue that makes the numbers on that facility (financed in part with debt) work.  So, independent Generator Co files for bankruptcy as well.  

Will there be opportunities to sweep in and acquire these orphan (as in, they no longer have a PSA to support them) generation assets?  Because, that asset -- if not overly encumbered by debt (now canceled via the bankruptcy) -- may be a revenue-positive asset as just another generation facility in whatever grid it may be found (ERCOT, MISO, SPP, etc.).  Or, will that already be pre-packaged -- the parent co (like AEP) will acquire its own orphan in the bankruptcy process?

Keep in mind that AI is not the only thing driving the power demand increase.  Two other big factors are crypto and electrification (mainly electrical vehicles, but also industrial and heat pumps.) I think when the bubble bursts, you will see a contraction on the power side, but not as desperate.  And I think you will see the independent power providers to retire old assets while holding onto the more efficient (energy and cost) newer assets.  That may be the silver lining in all this - the new plants being built are just better, environmentally, than the old stuff that will get mothballed once the market contracts.  So, yeah, you could swoop up a bunch of 50-year old shit that still has some life in it.  The real value buys will be in equipment ordered, but not operating.  Electrical gear will be pennies on the dollar on the brown market.  Some of it could be used in other industries or in replacements, although much of it is custom. 

 

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32 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Keep in mind that AI is not the only thing driving the power demand increase.  Two other big factors are crypto and electrification (mainly electrical vehicles, but also industrial and heat pumps.) I think when the bubble bursts, you will see a contraction on the power side, but not as desperate.  And I think you will see the independent power providers to retire old assets while holding onto the more efficient (energy and cost) newer assets.  That may be the silver lining in all this - the new plants being built are just better, environmentally, than the old stuff that will get mothballed once the market contracts.  So, yeah, you could swoop up a bunch of 50-year old shit that still has some life in it.  The real value buys will be in equipment ordered, but not operating.  Electrical gear will be pennies on the dollar on the brown market.  Some of it could be used in other industries or in replacements, although much of it is custom. 

 

Cool thoughts, thanks.  Yeah, load growth projections have become wonky as shit as multiple new adders have come into the mix.  Was aware of accounting for charging EVs, but hadn't really seen/thought much about industrial and heat pump-driven growth.  We'd all seen crypto mining already have an impact, but AI data center growth seems to be putting that to shame.

What you say about what will happen to assets in any crash makes sense.  Got a 25 yr old plant, with more expensive O&M and less efficiency, vs. a 2 yr old plant early in its maintenance life and quite efficient?  When you have to drop generation assets, you retire that first plant every time.

Tell me more about what you mean about getting electrical gear on the brown market?



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