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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Ghost of NMAS said:

If we had beaten OSU, Florida, and Georgia we would be undefeated and #1

and still just in the playoffs if we played rice instead of osu.   so what’s the point of playing osu?  playoffs is playoffs.  there is no trophy for beaning number one at the end of the regular season 

Edited by FORTY NINE TO ZERO
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Posted
Just now, FORTY NINE TO ZERO said:

and still in the playoffs if we played rice instead of osu.   so what’s the point of playing osu?

High quality entertainment and opposition for the fanbase.  A home-and-home with tOSU is better than 2 home games with Rice.  

Posted
2 minutes ago, boilerhorn said:

High quality entertainment and opposition for the fanbase.  A home-and-home with tOSU is better than 2 home games with Rice.  

I would prefer to watch meaningful games in January than in September. 

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I would prefer to watch meaningful games in January than in September. 

Understood - I want to see them all season.

The challenge with the evolution toward 1-2 16-28 team super-conferences is that future historical records will approach 0.500.  Outliers will approach 60% wins.  It will be interesting to see what happens to donations, NIL, etc. when 10 wins becomes an anomaly for the top teams.  There are not enough children's hospitals in Louisiana or enough treated lumber customers in Alabama to support such a thing.

 

Edited to add - all records are 0.500 (duh), but the top-28 to 32 teams are well above that...

Edited by boilerhorn
Posted
1 minute ago, boilerhorn said:

Understood - I want to see them all season.

The challenge with the evolution toward 1-2 16-28 team super-conferences is that future historical records will approach 0.500.  Outliers will approach 60% wins.  It will be interesting to see what happens to donations, NIL, etc. when 10 wins becomes an anomaly for the top teams.  There are not enough children's hospitals in Louisiana or enough treated lumber customers in Alabama to support such a thing.

I think a relegation system is needed where the top half of the conference is set apart from the bottom half and then there are play-in games for top performers in the bottom half. But these conferences are jsut way too big and the schedules too unbalanced as constituted.  

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I think a relegation system is needed where the top half of the conference is set apart from the bottom half and then there are play-in games for top performers in the bottom half. But these conferences are jsut way too big and the schedules too unbalanced as constituted.  

Yea or the more likely scenario is that eventually in the next decade or so the SEC and B1G pick up the few remaining blue bloods or blue blood adjacent stragglers cut a little dead weight and go do their own NFL like thing with 30ish teams. 
 

There is a shitload of value monetarily in Texas vs Ohio State if not value to the loser at the moment in the present constitution of the playoff system.  It’s not going to be left on the table. 

Edited by Surly Bevo
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Posted

As I’ve been saying all year, the only thing that matters is the loss column to these fuckers. No reason to ever schedule a tough OOC opponent ever again. What’s the point?
 

Shit, just play a bunch of bottom feeders and treat it like NFL preseason, who cares.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

As I’ve been saying all year, the only thing that matters is the loss column to these fuckers. No reason to ever schedule a tough OOC opponent ever again. What’s the point?
 

Shit, just play a bunch of bottom feeders and treat it like NFL preseason, who cares.

100%. If we beat aggy on Friday and CDC isnt saying this on every major sports news channel and threatening to cancel every game preseason game and switch them out with Arizona and Wake Forest, then I will be very disappointed. 

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Posted
46 minutes ago, Ghost of NMAS said:

If we had beaten OSU, Florida, and Georgia we would be undefeated and #1

Michael Richards Yes GIF

2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

100%. If we beat aggy on Friday and CDC isnt saying this on every major sports news channel and threatening to cancel every game preseason game and switch them out with Arizona and Wake Forest, then I will be very disappointed. 

If we beat aggy on Friday, I have a feeling you're going to be very disappointed.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

As I’ve been saying all year, the only thing that matters is the loss column to these fuckers. No reason to ever schedule a tough OOC opponent ever again. What’s the point?
 

Shit, just play a bunch of bottom feeders and treat it like NFL preseason, who cares.

Whatever you do, do NOT look at our future schedules.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

As I’ve been saying all year, the only thing that matters is the loss column to these fuckers. No reason to ever schedule a tough OOC opponent ever again. What’s the point?
 

Shit, just play a bunch of bottom feeders and treat it like NFL preseason, who cares.

if you want the best chance to get into the tournament on average yes.

I would submit that I'd like our coach/OC/QB whisperer to have an actual real OL coach and build a real OL and make sure our 3 year in the program 5 star QB is ready to go.

Posted

I’d say another problem for us is at the moment who are the top two or three realistic contenders for the title?  Well one is obviously Ohio State and another looks to be Georgia. Unfortunately the committee has seen us go 0-5 against those two in the last 13 months. Fool me once….fool me 5 times. 

Posted (edited)

Michigan has ZERO wins over a ranked team this year. Texas has 2.

Michigan was handled easily by OU, whom we beat.

Michigan lost to OU and was blown out by USC. Texas has lost @OSU, @GA and @UF.

Don’t give me the close games argument. Michigan survived by 3 points again Nebraska, 5 points against Purdue, and 2 points against Northwestern.

Why again should Michigan be ranked ahead of Texas? There is ZERO rational justification for doing so.

Edited by Voluminous Banality
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Posted
1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

if you want the best chance to get into the tournament on average yes.

I would submit that I'd like our coach/OC/QB whisperer to have an actual real OL coach and build a real OL and make sure our 3 year in the program 5 star QB is ready to go.

It should be obvious by now that experience is way more important than practice.

Posted
Just now, David Dennison said:

It should be obvious by now that experience is way more important than practice.

maybe, depends on if your coach wants to practice or not.

Posted
Just now, Voluminous Banality said:

Michigan has ZERO wins over a ranked team this year. Texas has 2.

Michigan was handled easily by OU, whom we beat.

Michigan lost to OU and was blown out by USC. Texas has lost to OSU and Florida.

Don’t give me the close games argument. Michigan survived by 3 points again Nebraska, 5 points against Purdue, and 2 points against Northwestern.

Why again should Michigan be ranked ahead of Texas? There is ZERO rational justification for doing so.

We have three losses, they have two.

That's why.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Voluminous Banality said:

Michigan has ZERO wins over a ranked team this year. Texas has 2.

Michigan was handled easily by OU, whom we beat.

Michigan lost to OU and was blown out by USC. Texas has lost to OSU and Florida.

Don’t give me the close games argument. Michigan survived by 3 points again Nebraska, 5 points against Purdue, and 2 points against Northwestern.

Why again should Michigan be ranked ahead of Texas? There is ZERO rational justification for doing so.

what is the "loss column"? Alex

Posted
Just now, dcar00 said:

what is the "loss column"? Alex

Yeah, that's the point. The committee made a big deal all preseason about how they are going to reward SOS and not punish losses in marquee OOC matchups. That was obviously a load of hooey. Schedule only pushovers in OOC to inflate your record because that's all that matters--that's the message the committee is now sending.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Voluminous Banality said:

Yeah, that's the point. The committee made a big deal all preseason about how they are going to reward SOS and not punish losses in marquee OOC matchups. That was obviously a load of hooey. Schedule only pushovers in OOC to inflate your record because that's all that matters--that's the message the committee is now sending.

But also, we have a really, really, really bad third loss.

Posted
22 minutes ago, Voluminous Banality said:

Yeah, that's the point. The committee made a big deal all preseason about how they are going to reward SOS and not punish losses in marquee OOC matchups. That was obviously a load of hooey. Schedule only pushovers in OOC to inflate your record because that's all that matters--that's the message the committee is now sending.

This 100%. Clearly we arent actually ranking and considering SOS AT ALL. If we were, texas would be ahead of Vandy, Utah, and Michigan right now. And with a win over Aggy, we should 100% be in the field if Bama or OU lose. 

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Posted
29 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

But also, we have a really, really, really bad third loss.

Florida is not good and it was a bad loss but they also have the #1 SOS.  hell they aimost beat and got fucked against Georgia AFTER their coach got fired.  since we like to talk about bad wins like Kentucky and MSU.  I do agree they totally gave up after the loss to UGA.

 

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Posted
3 hours ago, Voluminous Banality said:

Yeah, that's the point. The committee made a big deal all preseason about how they are going to reward SOS and not punish losses in marquee OOC matchups. That was obviously a load of hooey. Schedule only pushovers in OOC to inflate your record because that's all that matters--that's the message the committee is now sending.

We’ll jump everyone if we win. Committee DGAF. 

Posted
8 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

Oregon has played 2 teams that are currently ranked and got manhandled at home by one of them, and the other is an average as fuck USC team.

I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong about BYU or Utah but at least hold Oregon to the same standard.

e: Was wrong about one detail, USC has in fact beaten a ranked team (an average Michigan team).

Should also amend this to say that Oregon and BYU also have very similar SOS.

Posted

I feel like they're trying to sneak Miami into an at-large spot. They get a ranked Pitt team now (who actually is pretty good) on the road for a chance at another "resume" win.

Miami can also backdoor into Charlotte with an SMU or Virginia loss (if they beat Pitt, obviously, which remains to be seen). SMU is almost a 2 TD favorite @Cal and Virginia is -8.5 at home against Tech. Not likely but it could happen. 

It doesn't seem like more than 3 B10 teams are getting in. ND is in at this point. They are going to beat Stanford by 40.

G5 gets in. At least four SEC teams are in. The last spot will be either a 5th SEC team, a 2nd B12 team or a 2nd ACC team. 

Texas would need a lot of crazy shit to happen in addition to beating atm in order to have any shot I think. 

Posted (edited)

I like the what ifs, but today, the biggest what if for me is...what if we had simply FINISHED the GAME against Vandy? 

 

Even if we only won by 3 TDs, would we be ranked #16? Hardly think so.  

Edited by JGrayDBU
Posted

There's a sort of re-framing fallacy that comes up often in sports discussion.  None of this matters because Texas isn't winning the championship.

The playoffs isn't the goal. The championship is. Arbitrarily cutting playoff qualification to #12 is required for matter of practicality. The historical and predictive chances of these late-entrants actually winning the championship is basically zero.

All this scheduling and perceived strength (=ranking) handwringing is moot.  It mattered in the BCS and 4-team era, where being #2 vs #5 means a tons.  Being #12 vs #15 doesn't change shit.

If Texas had scheduled a cupcake instead of OSU, but still lost to Florida and Georgia, while squeaking by Kentucky/MSU/Vanderbilt, it would meaningfully change the strength the team or its championship hopes.  This hypothetical Texas team would lose to TTU/Ore in Round 1, and get assblasted by the T4 in the quarterfinals.

Posted
9 hours ago, FORTY NINE TO ZERO said:

and still just in the playoffs if we played rice instead of osu.   so what’s the point of playing osu?  playoffs is playoffs.  there is no trophy for beaning number one at the end of the regular season 

Because we would much rather beat OSU instead of rice, which we cannot do if we don't play them...and we aren't pussies

Posted
9 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

There's a sort of re-framing fallacy that comes up often in sports discussion.  None of this matters because Texas isn't winning the championship.

The playoffs isn't the goal. The championship is. Arbitrarily cutting playoff qualification to #12 is required for matter of practicality. The historical and predictive chances of these late-entrants actually winning the championship is basically zero.

All this scheduling and perceived strength (=ranking) handwringing is moot.  It mattered in the BCS and 4-team era, where being #2 vs #5 means a tons.  Being #12 vs #15 doesn't change shit.

If Texas had scheduled a cupcake instead of OSU, but still lost to Florida and Georgia, while squeaking by Kentucky/MSU/Vanderbilt, it would meaningfully change the strength the team or its championship hopes.  This hypothetical Texas team would lose to TTU/Ore in Round 1, and get assblasted by the T4 in the quarterfinals.

Texas could absolutely make a run if they make it arch is playing Elite Football. The defense getting back to early season contender status is doable as well. 

Posted
13 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

If Texas had scheduled a cupcake instead of OSU, but still lost to Florida and Georgia, while squeaking by Kentucky/MSU/Vanderbilt, it would meaningfully change the strength the team or its championship hopes. This hypothetical Texas team would lose to TTU/Ore in Round 1, and get assblasted by the T4 in the quarterfinals.

Woof, that's certainly a take. This Texas team, as of right now, isn't as good as the past two years, but in no way am I ready to concede that it would have no shot against Texas Tech or Oregon.

Fans also like watching their teams play in the big show. We don't have to be the favorite to win it for me to want to see Texas get a shot.

Posted
4 minutes ago, immamac said:

Texas could absolutely make a run if they make it arch is playing Elite Football. The defense getting back to early season contender status is doable as well. 

This is conditional on 2 things that have not been true for half of the season, Arch playing Elite and the Defense playing elite.  The defense allowed 38 by MissSt and for Arkansas to almost do what they wanted.

We're also changing the original agreement: that qualification is based on the season's body of work.

It's never been "what team is hottest" or "what team could win when playing at their best".  Otherwise we'll have to allow Tennessee, Michigan, Utah, etc in the picture. 

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