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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Ghost of NMAS said:

If we had beaten OSU, Florida, and Georgia we would be undefeated and #1

and still just in the playoffs if we played rice instead of osu.   so what’s the point of playing osu?  playoffs is playoffs.  there is no trophy for beaning number one at the end of the regular season 

Edited by FORTY NINE TO ZERO
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Posted
Just now, FORTY NINE TO ZERO said:

and still in the playoffs if we played rice instead of osu.   so what’s the point of playing osu?

High quality entertainment and opposition for the fanbase.  A home-and-home with tOSU is better than 2 home games with Rice.  

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Posted
2 minutes ago, boilerhorn said:

High quality entertainment and opposition for the fanbase.  A home-and-home with tOSU is better than 2 home games with Rice.  

I would prefer to watch meaningful games in January than in September. 

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I would prefer to watch meaningful games in January than in September. 

Understood - I want to see them all season.

The challenge with the evolution toward 1-2 16-28 team super-conferences is that future historical records will approach 0.500.  Outliers will approach 60% wins.  It will be interesting to see what happens to donations, NIL, etc. when 10 wins becomes an anomaly for the top teams.  There are not enough children's hospitals in Louisiana or enough treated lumber customers in Alabama to support such a thing.

 

Edited to add - all records are 0.500 (duh), but the top-28 to 32 teams are well above that...

Edited by boilerhorn
Posted
1 minute ago, boilerhorn said:

Understood - I want to see them all season.

The challenge with the evolution toward 1-2 16-28 team super-conferences is that future historical records will approach 0.500.  Outliers will approach 60% wins.  It will be interesting to see what happens to donations, NIL, etc. when 10 wins becomes an anomaly for the top teams.  There are not enough children's hospitals in Louisiana or enough treated lumber customers in Alabama to support such a thing.

I think a relegation system is needed where the top half of the conference is set apart from the bottom half and then there are play-in games for top performers in the bottom half. But these conferences are jsut way too big and the schedules too unbalanced as constituted.  

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I think a relegation system is needed where the top half of the conference is set apart from the bottom half and then there are play-in games for top performers in the bottom half. But these conferences are jsut way too big and the schedules too unbalanced as constituted.  

Yea or the more likely scenario is that eventually in the next decade or so the SEC and B1G pick up the few remaining blue bloods or blue blood adjacent stragglers cut a little dead weight and go do their own NFL like thing with 30ish teams. 
 

There is a shitload of value monetarily in Texas vs Ohio State if not value to the loser at the moment in the present constitution of the playoff system.  It’s not going to be left on the table. 

Edited by Surly Bevo
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Posted

As I’ve been saying all year, the only thing that matters is the loss column to these fuckers. No reason to ever schedule a tough OOC opponent ever again. What’s the point?
 

Shit, just play a bunch of bottom feeders and treat it like NFL preseason, who cares.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

As I’ve been saying all year, the only thing that matters is the loss column to these fuckers. No reason to ever schedule a tough OOC opponent ever again. What’s the point?
 

Shit, just play a bunch of bottom feeders and treat it like NFL preseason, who cares.

100%. If we beat aggy on Friday and CDC isnt saying this on every major sports news channel and threatening to cancel every game preseason game and switch them out with Arizona and Wake Forest, then I will be very disappointed. 

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Posted
46 minutes ago, Ghost of NMAS said:

If we had beaten OSU, Florida, and Georgia we would be undefeated and #1

Michael Richards Yes GIF

2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

100%. If we beat aggy on Friday and CDC isnt saying this on every major sports news channel and threatening to cancel every game preseason game and switch them out with Arizona and Wake Forest, then I will be very disappointed. 

If we beat aggy on Friday, I have a feeling you're going to be very disappointed.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

As I’ve been saying all year, the only thing that matters is the loss column to these fuckers. No reason to ever schedule a tough OOC opponent ever again. What’s the point?
 

Shit, just play a bunch of bottom feeders and treat it like NFL preseason, who cares.

Whatever you do, do NOT look at our future schedules.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

As I’ve been saying all year, the only thing that matters is the loss column to these fuckers. No reason to ever schedule a tough OOC opponent ever again. What’s the point?
 

Shit, just play a bunch of bottom feeders and treat it like NFL preseason, who cares.

if you want the best chance to get into the tournament on average yes.

I would submit that I'd like our coach/OC/QB whisperer to have an actual real OL coach and build a real OL and make sure our 3 year in the program 5 star QB is ready to go.

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Posted

I’d say another problem for us is at the moment who are the top two or three realistic contenders for the title?  Well one is obviously Ohio State and another looks to be Georgia. Unfortunately the committee has seen us go 0-5 against those two in the last 13 months. Fool me once….fool me 5 times. 

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Posted (edited)

Michigan has ZERO wins over a ranked team this year. Texas has 2.

Michigan was handled easily by OU, whom we beat.

Michigan lost to OU and was blown out by USC. Texas has lost @OSU, @GA and @UF.

Don’t give me the close games argument. Michigan survived by 3 points again Nebraska, 5 points against Purdue, and 2 points against Northwestern.

Why again should Michigan be ranked ahead of Texas? There is ZERO rational justification for doing so.

Edited by Voluminous Banality
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Posted
1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

if you want the best chance to get into the tournament on average yes.

I would submit that I'd like our coach/OC/QB whisperer to have an actual real OL coach and build a real OL and make sure our 3 year in the program 5 star QB is ready to go.

It should be obvious by now that experience is way more important than practice.

Posted
Just now, David Dennison said:

It should be obvious by now that experience is way more important than practice.

maybe, depends on if your coach wants to practice or not.

Posted
Just now, Voluminous Banality said:

Michigan has ZERO wins over a ranked team this year. Texas has 2.

Michigan was handled easily by OU, whom we beat.

Michigan lost to OU and was blown out by USC. Texas has lost to OSU and Florida.

Don’t give me the close games argument. Michigan survived by 3 points again Nebraska, 5 points against Purdue, and 2 points against Northwestern.

Why again should Michigan be ranked ahead of Texas? There is ZERO rational justification for doing so.

We have three losses, they have two.

That's why.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Voluminous Banality said:

Michigan has ZERO wins over a ranked team this year. Texas has 2.

Michigan was handled easily by OU, whom we beat.

Michigan lost to OU and was blown out by USC. Texas has lost to OSU and Florida.

Don’t give me the close games argument. Michigan survived by 3 points again Nebraska, 5 points against Purdue, and 2 points against Northwestern.

Why again should Michigan be ranked ahead of Texas? There is ZERO rational justification for doing so.

what is the "loss column"? Alex

Posted
Just now, dcar00 said:

what is the "loss column"? Alex

Yeah, that's the point. The committee made a big deal all preseason about how they are going to reward SOS and not punish losses in marquee OOC matchups. That was obviously a load of hooey. Schedule only pushovers in OOC to inflate your record because that's all that matters--that's the message the committee is now sending.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Voluminous Banality said:

Yeah, that's the point. The committee made a big deal all preseason about how they are going to reward SOS and not punish losses in marquee OOC matchups. That was obviously a load of hooey. Schedule only pushovers in OOC to inflate your record because that's all that matters--that's the message the committee is now sending.

But also, we have a really, really, really bad third loss.

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Posted
22 minutes ago, Voluminous Banality said:

Yeah, that's the point. The committee made a big deal all preseason about how they are going to reward SOS and not punish losses in marquee OOC matchups. That was obviously a load of hooey. Schedule only pushovers in OOC to inflate your record because that's all that matters--that's the message the committee is now sending.

This 100%. Clearly we arent actually ranking and considering SOS AT ALL. If we were, texas would be ahead of Vandy, Utah, and Michigan right now. And with a win over Aggy, we should 100% be in the field if Bama or OU lose. 

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Posted
29 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

But also, we have a really, really, really bad third loss.

Florida is not good and it was a bad loss but they also have the #1 SOS.  hell they aimost beat and got fucked against Georgia AFTER their coach got fired.  since we like to talk about bad wins like Kentucky and MSU.  I do agree they totally gave up after the loss to UGA.

 

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Posted
3 hours ago, Voluminous Banality said:

Yeah, that's the point. The committee made a big deal all preseason about how they are going to reward SOS and not punish losses in marquee OOC matchups. That was obviously a load of hooey. Schedule only pushovers in OOC to inflate your record because that's all that matters--that's the message the committee is now sending.

We’ll jump everyone if we win. Committee DGAF. 

Posted
8 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

Oregon has played 2 teams that are currently ranked and got manhandled at home by one of them, and the other is an average as fuck USC team.

I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong about BYU or Utah but at least hold Oregon to the same standard.

e: Was wrong about one detail, USC has in fact beaten a ranked team (an average Michigan team).

Should also amend this to say that Oregon and BYU also have very similar SOS.

Posted

I feel like they're trying to sneak Miami into an at-large spot. They get a ranked Pitt team now (who actually is pretty good) on the road for a chance at another "resume" win.

Miami can also backdoor into Charlotte with an SMU or Virginia loss (if they beat Pitt, obviously, which remains to be seen). SMU is almost a 2 TD favorite @Cal and Virginia is -8.5 at home against Tech. Not likely but it could happen. 

It doesn't seem like more than 3 B10 teams are getting in. ND is in at this point. They are going to beat Stanford by 40.

G5 gets in. At least four SEC teams are in. The last spot will be either a 5th SEC team, a 2nd B12 team or a 2nd ACC team. 

Texas would need a lot of crazy shit to happen in addition to beating atm in order to have any shot I think. 

Posted (edited)

I like the what ifs, but today, the biggest what if for me is...what if we had simply FINISHED the GAME against Vandy? 

 

Even if we only won by 3 TDs, would we be ranked #16? Hardly think so.  

Edited by JGrayDBU
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Posted

There's a sort of re-framing fallacy that comes up often in sports discussion.  None of this matters because Texas isn't winning the championship.

The playoffs isn't the goal. The championship is. Arbitrarily cutting playoff qualification to #12 is required for matter of practicality. The historical and predictive chances of these late-entrants actually winning the championship is basically zero.

All this scheduling and perceived strength (=ranking) handwringing is moot.  It mattered in the BCS and 4-team era, where being #2 vs #5 means a tons.  Being #12 vs #15 doesn't change shit.

If Texas had scheduled a cupcake instead of OSU, but still lost to Florida and Georgia, while squeaking by Kentucky/MSU/Vanderbilt, it would meaningfully change the strength the team or its championship hopes.  This hypothetical Texas team would lose to TTU/Ore in Round 1, and get assblasted by the T4 in the quarterfinals.

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Posted
9 hours ago, FORTY NINE TO ZERO said:

and still just in the playoffs if we played rice instead of osu.   so what’s the point of playing osu?  playoffs is playoffs.  there is no trophy for beaning number one at the end of the regular season 

Because we would much rather beat OSU instead of rice, which we cannot do if we don't play them...and we aren't pussies

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Posted
9 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

There's a sort of re-framing fallacy that comes up often in sports discussion.  None of this matters because Texas isn't winning the championship.

The playoffs isn't the goal. The championship is. Arbitrarily cutting playoff qualification to #12 is required for matter of practicality. The historical and predictive chances of these late-entrants actually winning the championship is basically zero.

All this scheduling and perceived strength (=ranking) handwringing is moot.  It mattered in the BCS and 4-team era, where being #2 vs #5 means a tons.  Being #12 vs #15 doesn't change shit.

If Texas had scheduled a cupcake instead of OSU, but still lost to Florida and Georgia, while squeaking by Kentucky/MSU/Vanderbilt, it would meaningfully change the strength the team or its championship hopes.  This hypothetical Texas team would lose to TTU/Ore in Round 1, and get assblasted by the T4 in the quarterfinals.

Texas could absolutely make a run if they make it arch is playing Elite Football. The defense getting back to early season contender status is doable as well. 

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Posted
13 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

If Texas had scheduled a cupcake instead of OSU, but still lost to Florida and Georgia, while squeaking by Kentucky/MSU/Vanderbilt, it would meaningfully change the strength the team or its championship hopes. This hypothetical Texas team would lose to TTU/Ore in Round 1, and get assblasted by the T4 in the quarterfinals.

Woof, that's certainly a take. This Texas team, as of right now, isn't as good as the past two years, but in no way am I ready to concede that it would have no shot against Texas Tech or Oregon.

Fans also like watching their teams play in the big show. We don't have to be the favorite to win it for me to want to see Texas get a shot.

Posted
4 minutes ago, immamac said:

Texas could absolutely make a run if they make it arch is playing Elite Football. The defense getting back to early season contender status is doable as well. 

This is conditional on 2 things that have not been true for half of the season, Arch playing Elite and the Defense playing elite.  The defense allowed 38 by MissSt and for Arkansas to almost do what they wanted.

We're also changing the original agreement: that qualification is based on the season's body of work.

It's never been "what team is hottest" or "what team could win when playing at their best".  Otherwise we'll have to allow Tennessee, Michigan, Utah, etc in the picture. 

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Posted
Just now, 52-80 said:

This is conditional on 2 things that have not been true for half of the season, Arch playing Elite and the Defense playing elite.  The defense allowed 38 by MissSt and for Arkansas to almost do what they wanted.

We're also changing the original agreement: that qualification is based on the season's body of work.

It's never been "what team is hottest" or "what team could win when playing at their best".  Otherwise we'll have to allow Tennessee, Michigan, Utah, etc in the picture. 

I'm saying they don't deserve to be in, but to dismiss them with no shot if they do is stupid. 

Posted
11 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

For what it's worth. I think Texas gets in over BYU or Utah. BYU beating Tech is the bigger issue for us. 

If we had scheduled Minnesota, the same statement would be true. 

Or we could have lost to Minnesota, which is entirely plausible given that we lost to 3-8 Florida and were playing horrible football to start the season.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Voluminous Banality said:

Woof, that's certainly a take. This Texas team, as of right now, isn't as good as the past two years, but in no way am I ready to concede that it would have no shot against Texas Tech or Oregon.

Fans also like watching their teams play in the big show. We don't have to be the favorite to win it for me to want to see Texas get a shot.

It has a shot at TTU and Oregon. Its body of work and their body work says it would be the disfavored team, and that it does not deserve a shot. 

TTU has run roughshod over everyone, with 2 convincing ranked wins, and just 1 squeaker loss on the road. The season's results says it is closer to #1 than Texas is.

So it would be a bigger travesty if , for example, TTU lands at #5 and is excluded from a 4-team playoff and a crack at the NCG than Texas landing at #13 and is excluded from its shot.

 

I'm a Texas fan but have to be objective too. We're fighting for scraps here.

Posted
7 minutes ago, ztejas said:

You always want to make the Playoff. It doesn't matter if you think you can win a national or not. 

Idk man. There's probably 9 maybe some years 10 that can actually win. 2-3 are always just in because they made it 12. 

Posted
46 minutes ago, immamac said:

Idk man. There's probably 9 maybe some years 10 that can actually win. 2-3 are always just in because they made it 12. 

So? There’s only 3-5 teams who will realistically win March Madness. Still more fun with my team in it 

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Posted (edited)

To win the playoffs, we need to beat 3 playoff teams....which we likely will already have done if we make it.

It's crazy talk to think we won't compete.

Edited by JBJ
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Posted

Wishing things were different but they aren’t. 
We got our shit pushed in twice this year. Dazed and confused is no way to coach at the University of Texas much less in the SEC. 
Delusions of Grandeur is very Aggie like and we need to go in another direction. Stop blaming refs, youth of the roster, a crooked ass conference, schedule decision makers, atmospheric conditions, the tilt of the earth’s axis.
Our coaching staff and players were not ready, whose fault was that? I keep hearing we were within sticking distance of the Bulldogs, STOP. Florida was an outlier, nope not hearing that nonsense! 
I bleed burnt orange but let’s all take a deep breath, yes it is comforting to hang on to any excuse. It can only be, we either fell asleep in recruiting or the entire coaching staff has checked out at some point. Maybe it doesn’t mean as much to this group of players that we all assumed it did, which goes back to recruiting. Yes the worst thing in sports you can do is question a players heart, but damn. It is obvious we need a few dawgs we need a few guys that are absolutely animals. 
This game better mean something to that entire roster and coaching staff or we will get embarrassed. Yes I know they don’t want to lose. That is not the mentality we need this week we need to inflict pain. Aggies are not rolling into DKR like the third reich rolled into Poland and France fuck that noise. 

If you live with, work with or know an Aggie right now I pray for you. 

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Posted
11 hours ago, FORTY NINE TO ZERO said:

and still just in the playoffs if we played rice instead of osu.   so what’s the point of playing osu?  playoffs is playoffs.  there is no trophy for beaning number one at the end of the regular season 

There's also no trophy for hiding your team in the regular season and getting bounced in the 1st round

Posted

Tech’s squeaker loss on the road is to a team that lost to Mississippi State who everyone on this board thinks is dogshit. The Big 12 has zero good out-of-conference wins this year. It’s a 1 bid league. 

Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

Tech’s squeaker loss on the road is to a team that lost to Mississippi State who everyone on this board thinks is dogshit. The Big 12 has zero good out-of-conference wins this year. It’s a 1 bid league. 

ASU lost at the very beginning of the season, on the road, due to one play at the end of the game where the DB and Safety both missed their assignments.  One blown play at the end of the game.  They had the victory and just lost it on one play.

Stop with the transitive property BS, especially games played in week 1 and 2 when these transfers are still trying to gel.  Tech lost to ASU who was blown out on the road a week earlier by Utah who Tech blew out of their own stadium.  Transitive property is meaningless, especially in games played in week 1 on the road.

In 2008 Tech nearly got beat by Nevada (@ Nevada) and looked pretty meh in another non-conference game.  Later that season they beat two Top 10 teams in consecutive weeks.

Using the ASU week 1 loss on the road to Miss St. as a reason to say Tech is not very good is either being dishonest or ignorant or both.

Edited by Uncle Nate
Posted

If you follow Adam McClintock on twitter he does a pretty good job of breaking things down. Here is his thread on last nights rankings: 



Thing about this system, and he seems to be pretty accurate, is that it says that Michigan has 5 quality wins (teams above .500) and we have two. But here are Michigan's five quality wins: New Mexico, Central Michigan, Nebraska, Washington, Northwestern. Let's say that Texas's 2 quality wins, which are much stronger than Michigan's, cancel out Michigan's top 2. That means the committee is ranking Michigan over Texas because their lower tier OOC teams are good at beating other lower-tier teams, and Northwestern is 6-4 while Kentucky or Miss St is 5-6. If that's the case then we are doing this all wrong. 

Also, I want to mention that Game Control seems to have an important role in all this. Sark is going to have to adapt, and keep the pedal down. If the committee seems to value this metric, so it needs to be factored in to the team strategy. 

Posted
23 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

Tech’s squeaker loss on the road is to a team that lost to Mississippi State who everyone on this board thinks is dogshit. The Big 12 has zero good out-of-conference wins this year. It’s a 1 bid league. 

I disagree with the transitive properties of football.

That ASU game had Dillingham working Joey McGuire like a motherfucker.  Y'all would have enjoyed it immensely if you had seen it.

It also had Sam Leavitt going for 319 and a TD. Jordyn Tyson had 10rec for 105 yards and a TD.

There hasn't been a similar performance by Tech this season, or by an offense being that productive against Tech's defense.  ASU possibly played its best game of the season.  The game was worse than the score indicates.

IMHO, that's exactly why the playoff system is worthwhile.  It allows for that one-off game where injuries, being on the road, or whatever hits your team.

Posted
11 hours ago, boilerhorn said:

High quality entertainment and opposition for the fanbase.  A home-and-home with tOSU is better than 2 home games with Rice.  

True, but the goal is to make the playoffs, not give a good road game to travel to.

I LOVE that we play those teams...but it's clear the risk is not worth it.

11 hours ago, kingkoopa6 said:

So it’s settled. 
line up the cupcakes so we can play walk ons in the 4th qtr. 

It'll get them more wins and less losses. So yes?

11 hours ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

As I’ve been saying all year, the only thing that matters is the loss column to these fuckers. No reason to ever schedule a tough OOC opponent ever again. What’s the point?
 

Shit, just play a bunch of bottom feeders and treat it like NFL preseason, who cares.

Exactly.  The point is losses is all that matters. Not who you play or who you beat. Just that little crooked number.

11 hours ago, David Dennison said:

Whatever you do, do NOT look at our future schedules.

You keep saying this, and the answer is to fucking change it.  There is literally NO justification for playing them if a loss to them counts the same as a loss to Florida(it does, or we wouldn't be out of the playoffs)

11 hours ago, David Dennison said:

We have three losses, they have two.

That's why.

Yes, and one to a team we didn't have to play.  See how that works?

2 hours ago, ztejas said:

You always want to make the Playoff. It doesn't matter if you think you can win a national or not. 

Exactly. That's the goal now that the playoffs exist.  Make the dance and see what happens.

Who gives a fuck if you "think" we aren't good enough because of Florida or Georgia games.  Doesn't matter. Get in and see what you can do. That's the goal.

Posted

Overranked:

5 Texas Tech - abysmal SoS.  It's seriously G5 tier.  I just don't see how anyone could possibly rank them above Oregon.  They could probably fall 3-4 spots with no complaints.

8 Oklahoma - feels like the committee just swapped them and Bama due to h2h.  But the truth is that Bama has a top 10 SOS and I don't think h2h overcomes that.  I'd swap them back.

13 Utah - poor SOS with two losses to boot

18 Virginia - not sure what the committee is even doing here. My poll predictor has them at 28.  There's no redeeming stats or qualities that might make them a hidden gem.

21-25 Feels like the committee gives up once they reach this point.  Tulane is somewhat justifiable as they have a tough schedule for a G5 (it's tougher than Tech's and comparable to Utah).  I don't understand leaving off Washington, Mizzou, Iowa, Illinois, LSU for these teams except they want to avoid a B1G/SEC bias but the reality is what it is this year.  I'd have North Texas over Tulane for now, but I suppose that'll work itself out.

 

Finally,

1 Ohio State - I completely understand why they are here, but no one is pointing these things out, so I feel I must.  This must be the easiest P2 schedule and if it weren't for Tech, it'd arguably be the easiest P4 schedule.  How they managed to do this in the B1G with Texas non-conf is wild.  Replace Texas with a rust belt directional school and it's actually worse then Tech's schedule.  I haven't seen this mentioned anywhere despite people complaining about Indiana and aggy getting an easy ride.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, JBJ said:

1 Ohio State - I completely understand why they are here, but no one is pointing these things out, so I feel I must.  This must be the easiest P2 schedule and if it weren't for Tech, it'd arguably be the easiest P4 schedule.  How they managed to do this in the B1G with Texas non-conf is wild.  Replace Texas with a rust belt directional school and it's actually worse then Tech's schedule.  I haven't seen this mentioned anywhere despite people complaining about Indiana and aggy getting an easy ride.

They're going to lose to Michigan again. 

Posted
2 hours ago, satyanash said:

Or we could have lost to Minnesota, which is entirely plausible given that we lost to 3-8 Florida and were playing horrible football to start the season.

Plays the #1 defending national champion on the road to a 1 score game and fall short on the final drive of the game and you have the absolute fucking gall to suggest we wouldve lost to Minnesota? 

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