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Posted

the problem with Bama dropping even with a 20 point loss is that they already beat Georgia at Georgia.  committee will just say "yeah we can have the rubber match in the playoff!"

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Posted

while florida is the ultimate key to the texas and no playoffs issue (and kentucky, and miss state both hurt), i am starting to think that one of the biggest things that fucked us on the playoff this season is the fourth quarter against vandy.

we were winning 34-10 with ten minutes left in the fourth quarter and 34-16 with four minutes left. the perception of beating 10-2 vandy's ass 34-10 would have had an impact instead of it just looking like a field goal win. with a score like that and beating ou 23-6, there is really no rational argument for bama over texas.

 

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Posted
24 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

If Georgia beats them as bad as us then we are equal to Alabama in record. We’ll both have a bad loss but we’ll have a better resume overall 

They finished second in the SEC.  We finished 6th.  That's how the committee looks at it.  Even though we beat aggy, we are not ahead of them

Posted
9 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

The rules don't speak to that.  Only conference champions have any guarantees.  Besides, you could argue that the best two teams in the conference aren't in the CCG.  Bama could be the fourth best team, but yet made the CCG.

You got me there. It's not in the official CFP rules. But I can tell you the runner-up from the undisputed strongest conference in the nation isn't getting left out of the 12-team playoff in place of teams behind them because they lost the extra game. And Bama has already beaten the Dawgs once.

 

5 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

I am fine with that, but that also highlights the unbalanced schedules in major conferences. That is ignored when people say conference championship games shouldn’t not matter for the playoffs. 

I don't disagree. The Big 10 is even worse. Of their top four teams -- Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon and Michigan -- there were exactly two games played between those four schools. Michigan/Ohio State and Indiana/Oregon. That's it.

Posted
1 minute ago, Im_smarter_then_you said:

They finished second in the SEC.  We finished 6th.  That's how the committee looks at it.  Even though we beat aggy, we are not ahead of them

We finished 5th, though.

Posted
13 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

I am fine with that, but that also highlights the unbalanced schedules in major conferences. That is ignored when people say conference championship games shouldn’t not matter for the playoffs. 

Pods and mega conferences make ignoring the CCG really problematic, in fact.

I really don't think you can do the beauty contest and cherry-pick data points.  It goes weird places.

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Posted
28 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

This is a fact:  the committee isn't going to make any choices based on the consequences of those choices on scheduling, TV dollars, meaningfulness of CCGs, etc.  They will base those decisions only on one question:  Which 12 teams are the best in the country? 

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Posted
53 minutes ago, C-Man said:

but playing that extra game shouldn't knock you out of the 12 no matter what happens.

But is that actually a good way to choose the best at large teams? By simply ignoring recent evidence that the losing team might not actually be any good?

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Posted
17 minutes ago, BigHornedLurker said:

if you can't punish a team for losing the conference championship how can you punish a team for losing to the unbeaten previous years ncaaf champion 

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Its more about Duke and BYU  winning and knocking out Bama. In that scenario JMU assuming they win would be 5th highest ranked conf champ and another G5 guaranteed team will get in.  JMU being a top 5 conference champ AND the G5.  Rules are rules

IU, tOSU, Oregon, Tech, UGA, OU, JMU, G5, Tamu, Ole Miss, B12Champ BYU, Notre Dame

Posted
1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

But is that actually a good way to choose the best at large teams? By simply ignoring recent evidence that the losing team might not actually be any good?

Well, can you point to aggy or Ole Miss or Oklahoma playing additional games against top 5 or top 10 games this weekend?

The CCG is do-or-die for Virginia and BYU for sure this weekend. Should Tech get a pass if it doesn't beat BYU this weekend? I'm not certain of that but I'd be shocked if they're not firmly in no matter what happens this weekend. It's also do-or-die for North Texas, Tulane and James Madison this weekend. (It also might not matter for North Texas/Tulane if James Madison wins.) It's not do-or-die for Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia or Alabama due to the strength of their conferences.

Posted
17 minutes ago, C-Man said:

But I can tell you the runner-up from the undisputed strongest conference in the nation isn't getting left out of the 12-team playoff in place of teams behind them because they lost the extra game. And Bama has already beaten the Dawgs once.

 

 

CFP rules states highest ranked 5 conf champs.  Bama has to hope like hell BYU and Duke dont win.  Hell if UVA wins, they may take Bama's spot.

Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, C-Man said:

. It's also do-or-die for North Texas, Tulane and James Madison this weekend. (It also might not matter for North Texas/Tulane if James Madison wins.) It's not do-or-die for Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia or Alabama due to the strength of their conferences.

This is wrong.  The 5 highest ranked conf champs are in, JMU being one if UVA loses AND another G5 team (guaranteed)

Edited by jdhorn92
Posted
4 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Fyi, these are the only schools we have losing records against that arent in the SEC:

 

Air force 0-1

Byu 2-4

Minnesota 0-1

Ncst 0-1

Northwestern 0-1

Notre dame 3-9

Usc 2-5

Syracuse 0-2

Ucla 3-4

Va tech 0-1

Penn state 2-3

We should schedule all of the 0-1 teams just to make this fucking list shorter.

Posted
24 minutes ago, sidis said:

while florida is the ultimate key to the texas and no playoffs issue (and kentucky, and miss state both hurt), i am starting to think that one of the biggest things that fucked us on the playoff this season is the fourth quarter against vandy.

we were winning 34-10 with ten minutes left in the fourth quarter and 34-16 with four minutes left. the perception of beating 10-2 vandy's ass 34-10 would have had an impact instead of it just looking like a field goal win. with a score like that and beating ou 23-6, there is really no rational argument for bama over texas.

 

I said exactly this after that game. Im still furious about it. We should be talking about blowing them out right now. 

Posted
31 minutes ago, BonzoMontreaux said:

We should be getting more credit for simply playing a slate of all DI schools.  Seems like every team in front of us has a win over a D2 school.  

Yeah not enough is made of this...I dont' even remember the last lower division school Texas has played...if ever.  They should count those games as .5 wins.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Drew said:

Yeah not enough is made of this...I dont' even remember the last lower division school Texas has played...if ever.  They should count those games as .5 wins.

2006 SHSU but only because Arkansas canceled a game I think. Before that it was North Texas in 1992.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, jdhorn92 said:

This is wrong.  The 5 highest ranked conf champs are in, JMU being one if UVA loses AND another G5 team (guaranteed)

What part was wrong? If any of BYU, Virginia, James Madison, North Texas or Tulane lose there's no chance any of them get into the 12-team playoff. That's what I was saying.

I understand things start to get messy if Duke and BYU win, etc. I don't think any result in the B10 or SEC Championship Games will knock any of those four out of the final 12-team field. It will have an effect where they're all seeded.

Posted
2 minutes ago, C-Man said:

What part was wrong? If any of BYU, Virginia, James Madison, North Texas or Tulane lose there's no chance any of them get into the 12-team playoff. That's what I was saying.

I understand things start to get messy if Duke and BYU win, etc. I don't think any result in the B10 or SEC Championship Games will knock any of those four out of the final 12-team field. It will have an effect where they're all seeded.

I thought your post inferred it wouldnt matter for UNT or Tulane if JMU win; meaning JMU would take the G5 spot. There is another variable and that is UVA/Duke. If JMU wins and UVA loses, both JMU and one of the G5 teams would both get in, so in that way, JMU winning wouldnt knock UNT/Tulane out

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Posted

Easiest solution for the committee is just put Texas ahead of Alabama tomorrow based on their shitass performance against Auburn, our double digit win over #3, and Florida kicking FSU's ass.

It will obviously not happen but it would be a lot cooler if they did. 

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Posted
13 minutes ago, jdhorn92 said:

CFP rules states highest ranked 5 conf champs.  Bama has to hope like hell BYU and Duke dont win.  Hell if UVA wins, they may take Bama's spot.

It is very clear that two lower ranked conf champs will leapfrog a losing Bama, the point is moot now only Miami making the CCG could have changed this dynamic but they are also behind Bama.

The CFP will decide our fate tomorrow, if they are radical they need to put us at 12 below Bama and BYU, anything lower like say 13, or 12 with Bama behind us means we are not getting in period.

Posted

OU cheated to win against Auburn and they barely beat a coachless don't give af LSU team because of one blown coverage.  They should be out.  I'm going to keep posting this because someone on the CFP selection committee could be reading this board.  Totes serious.

Posted

We will be ranked 13 or 14.  If you are the CFP why do you even want to invite the controversy with a bunch of games still to come this weekend?  Think like a suit...kill off controversy quickly, leave yourself an out.  

Posted
Just now, C-Man said:

Well, can you point to aggy or Ole Miss or Oklahoma playing additional games against top 5 or top 10 games this weekend?

The CCG is do-or-die for Virginia and BYU for sure this weekend. Should Tech get a pass if it doesn't beat BYU this weekend? I'm not certain of that but I'd be shocked if they're not firmly in no matter what happens this weekend. It's also do-or-die for North Texas, Tulane and James Madison this weekend. (It also might not matter for North Texas/Tulane if James Madison wins.) It's not do-or-die for Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia or Alabama due to the strength of their conferences.

It's not do or die but there are still playoff stakes. Byes, home field, all of which could be highly consequential depending on who you're playing and who you get to avoid.

It might seem unfair, but as I've been saying about the CFP committee, if the question is "who is the best" why should evidence that comes from a conference championship game be ignored? For example, what happens if Virginia beats Duke in a very unimpressive way, and their best guys all get injured in the process. In that case, why should Virginia get an automatic qualification? When the dust settles, maybe the five "best" conference champions are from the SEC, B1G, Big XII, and two G5 conferences.

Virginia could cry "that's not fair, we would have been better off if we didn't play in the conference championship game"

And the correct response to Virginia would be, the committee's job isn't to reward teams for winning, it's to select the "best" teams to ensure that the CFP has the best participants and is as competitive as possible. If Virginia shows us that it is not one of the five "best" conference champions and that it is not one of the seven "best" at large teams, I don't particularly care or have much sympathy for the fact that we wouldn't have known about Virginia's lack of merit if it hadn't been for that last game against Duke. The committee knows now, and its job is to select the "best" and not the most "deserving."

On the flip side, I believe we exposed Texas A&M, and they might actually be benefiting from avoiding another chance to be exposed. Is anyone crying, "that's not fair, Texas A&M would have a lower seed if they had to face Alabama in Atlanta" or anything along those lines? The same can be said about Oregon and Ole Miss.

The correct response is that the committee's job isn't to punish teams for failing to qualify for a conference championship game; it's to select the "best" teams to ensure that the CFP has the best participants and is as competitive as possible. Texas A&M showed us that it is one of the seven "best" at large teams. We can speculate that some team it hasn't played yet is likely to have exposed them as frauds, but that kind of speculation is no substitute for evidence. Right now the best evidence that Texas A&M is a fraud came from Notre Dame (got unlucky and lost at home), South Carolina (self explanatory), and Texas (27-17). These kinds of speculative arguments can be made in favor of and against basically any team in the field. If you are selecting the "best" then you ask who is playing the best football right now and who is likely to play that level of football in the playoffs. That is why Texas A&M should go down in the rankings (it's also "fair" because they just lost), it is why Ole Miss should also go down (Kiffin gone, so while it might not feel "fair" it would be a logical conclusion that they won't be able to play as well), and it is why Oklahoma's narrow win over LSU should give the committee strong reason to reconsider if it really is a top ten team.

All I ask for is a fair process for determining who the best teams are, even if that fair process leads to outcomes that feel unfair because they punish teams for making (and losing) CCGs or for having their coaches poached away. It is more important that the best teams be selected than it is for the most deserving teams or the teams with the best records not to be excluded.

Posted
6 minutes ago, linux said:

It is very clear that two lower ranked conf champs will leapfrog a losing Bama, the point is moot now only Miami making the CCG could have changed this dynamic but they are also behind Bama.

The CFP will decide our fate tomorrow, if they are radical they need to put us at 12 below Bama and BYU, anything lower like say 13, or 12 with Bama behind us means we are not getting in period.

  BYU and UVA?  I could see that happening if they both win.   Winning JMU would be out in that scenario. Miami was at 12 with a solid W, so they need Bama to lose, UVA and Tech to win.  Im not holding out any hope for Texas.  One too many losses outweighing our 3 solid Wins.  

Posted
I get the sentiment, and OU's offense is very flawed with an offensive efficiency ranking of 54. But, UT's is 41. For reference, Iowa is 48. OU and UT have by far the worst offensive efficiency ranking among playoff contenders. In an argument of more deserving, it might be a better argument against ND as they're 0-2 against teams in the playoff mix.
The problem is ND only lost by 3 to 10-2 Miami on a FG with a minute to play and by 1 to 11-1 aggy on a 4th down TD with eleven seconds left after ND missed an extra point while they've handled everyone else in a manner that they should. Easy to say they are a couple plays from undefeated. UT can talk away couple plays away from losses to tOSU and UF. But there's no undoing the UGA loss and no amount of "it was close until...." changes the final score.
Those three teams have an interesting look though:
Strength of Record: OU-9, UT-12, ND 13
Strength of Schedule: UT-8, OU 12, ND-42
Game Control: ND-5, OU-9, UT-17
Average in-game win probability: ND-5, OU-16, UT-45
Offensive efficiency: ND-3, UT-41, OU-54
Defensive efficiency: OU-4, ND-8, UT-11
Special teams: OU-2, UT-5, ND-64

Are the rankings in your first paragraph adjusted for opponents or nah? If the latter, there’s really no utility in discussing them.
Posted
1 hour ago, CTC2 said:

Their cold comfort for losing Friday is that we won’t make the playoff. 

this may have already been posted, but klatt's fix-it solution would have us going back to pyle this weekend to re-earn what we just did, and he thinks we would be okay with that, it would be our chance to prove it on the field rather than sark having to politic

he also made the example of a rig play-in where utah has to go to provo - and he's right in that case - utah lost at home to byu - they would gladly take their chances to get back in to the tournament by doing on the road what they couldn't do at home - but i doubt the brethren would be happy having to re-earn what they already achieved on the road

his play-in idea might have legs if it was cross-conference....   the CCGs take place, winners bye, losers seeded, and fill out the rest of the field from the play-ins also happening this weekend

Posted
3 minutes ago, Drew said:

Yeah not enough is made of this...I dont' even remember the last lower division school Texas has played...if ever.  They should count those games as .5 wins.

I maintain that anything under FBS should always be counted a loss. That solves a lot of problems. It encourages playing better opponents. It punishes playing scheduling completely bullshit cupcake games. There are plenty of full division 1 teams to pick up from.

  • A&M has 2 losses (Samford)
  • Alabama has 3 losses (E Illinois)
  • Indiana has 1 loss (Indiana St)
  • Georgia has 2 losses (Austin Peay)
  • Texas Tech has 2 losses (AR-Pine Bluff)
  • Oregon has 2 losses (Montana State)
  • Miami has 3 losses (Bethune)
  • Ole Miss has 2 losses (the citadel)
  • Oklahoma has 3 losses (Illinois State)
  • BYU has 2 losses (Portland St)
  • Utah has 3 loses (Cal Poly)
  • Vanderbilt has 3 losses (Charleston Southern)

And so on. Texas and Notre Dame are the only teams in the playoff picture that haven't sullied their record with that bullshit. The fact that everyone else has tells me my idea is the correct one. 

Posted
55 minutes ago, sidis said:

while florida is the ultimate key to the texas and no playoffs issue (and kentucky, and miss state both hurt), i am starting to think that one of the biggest things that fucked us on the playoff this season is the fourth quarter against vandy.

we were winning 34-10 with ten minutes left in the fourth quarter and 34-16 with four minutes left. the perception of beating 10-2 vandy's ass 34-10 would have had an impact instead of it just looking like a field goal win. with a score like that and beating ou 23-6, there is really no rational argument for bama over texas.

 

that says more about the committee being a bunch of morons than it does about us...

and if that is the case then we should be getting 10X credit for our game against tOSU. 

Posted
21 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Easiest solution for the committee is just put Texas ahead of Alabama tomorrow based on their shitass performance against Auburn, our double digit win over #3, and Florida kicking FSU's ass.

It will obviously not happen but it would be a lot cooler if they did. 

putting us ahead of OU is a much more sound and logical decision - we are ahead in the conference standings (an objective measure) and we have head to head (objective measure) and we have better wins, but a large margin.

the only difference is we have that third loss.

oh wait, it does come down to the loss column and only the loss column.

 

Posted
40 minutes ago, BlackCat said:

I said exactly this after that game. Im still furious about it. We should be talking about blowing them out right now. 

the vandy game can not be part of the discussion because it brings the fuckery to the table and that's a third rail - untouchable

Posted

If we’re 14 then that’s the committee saying fuck you to sark and his threats of not scheduling big OOC games moving forward. Basically it’s “fine we don’t care if you do or don’t”.

But if we’re 14th then that’s some huge bullshit.

Posted
3 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

mormon nation also has to show up in arlington - they have to own half of the 2 lower sections - if they can't do that having known for weeks they were likely in this game - then they don't deserve the playoff stage with a 1-point loss

This is dumb. We are playing against a team from Texas in Texas and that team is playing in its first B12 championship game ever. Tech fans will of course outnumber us by a lot. We will have a good presence, though, all things considered.

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