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"Easy" Money Come Election Day (Prediction Market Gambling)


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10 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Let's see if the servers hold up tonight.


I'm on NO R House R Senate @ 0.28. 


I got the same except I got my shares 0.26.  

I got Fetterman shares at 0.39 and felt like I overpaid.

Most of my others were longshots in horserace.  For example,  McMullin in Utah and Barnes in Wisconsin.  I' need to watch the returns closely now in Wisconsin, that market is moving.

  • Hook 'Em 1
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Plans by prediction market Kalshi to let users bet on which party will control the chambers of Congress have been turned down by regulators at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The regulator said the contracts would involve unlawful gaming and activity and would be "contrary to the public interest" after KalshiEx LLC made a submission in June 2023.

The contracts would have been settled in cash and let users bet on yes or no questions about whether the Republicans or Democrats would control the House and Senate in a given term.

Last year, an appeals court ruled that another prediction market, PredictIt, should be allowed to continue operating until a final court ruling, despite a CFTC order to shut down.

A representative of Kalshi did not immediately respond to a CoinDesk request for comment.


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6. What’s the current status of prediction markets?


The United States currently classifies prediction markets as gambling, so real-money prediction markets are mostly illegal. This has forced markets to pursue one of three strategies:

  1. Operate outside the United States, closed to US citizens. Polymarket fills this niche effectively.

  2. Make special deals with US regulators for exemptions to the usual restrictions. Usually these deals involve promises to have a very limited set of questions or deal in very small bets only. PredictIt used to be the leader here, but regulators changed their mind and are shutting it down. Kalshi will probably replace it.

  3. Operate using play-money only. Here Manifold is the leader. You could also think of superforecasting tournaments like Metaculus as a version of this.

I claim that the main reason prediction markets haven’t fulfilled their potential and become a major pillar of worldwide decision-making is that none of these solutions are really adequate.

For whatever reason, most people interested in prediction markets are American, so Polymarket has a limited userbase.

The regulators are pretty harsh, so the companies that strike deals to get exemptions usually have to trade away most of their functionality. Kalshi can only ask a few specific regulator-approved questions; the limits are so harsh that they’re not even allowed to predict elections.

Play-money prediction markets like Manifold are a lot of fun, but there’s a limit to how much work people will do to earn play money. ...


I found the above while trying to figure out if the Zeitgeist prediction market was kosher for US residents (which I'm still not sure about).

Edited by bernorange
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I forgot about PredictIt. I loved how you could sell your bets on the open market whether it or down.  Good way to get out of a position.

It was a lot of fun and in 2016, PredictIt was WAY ahead of the news organizations in recognizing that Trump had won. Or at least if the new orgs knew, they weren't saying it yet.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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