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  • AUS-97HORN
    AUS-97HORN

    For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

  • Im_smarter_then_you
    Im_smarter_then_you

  • InkaUtexas
    InkaUtexas

    I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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13 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Has ATACMS entered the chat?  I don't see how a fire on the rail bridge drops those vehicle bridge spans.  Interesting shit, man.

Claims of people hearing four explosions.

Has ATACMS entered the chat?  I don't see how a fire on the rail bridge drops those vehicle bridge spans.  Interesting shit, man.

They’d be rubble with an ATACMS strike and not whole span slid off the pylons. Guessing lucky secondary effect of going after the rail bridge.
Claims of people hearing four explosions.

Four fuel cars are on fire.
  • Popular Post

Another quick observation is best case... and I am going to be real generous on the facts here.

1. The main rail bridge will be out of commission for a few weeks while they clear the debris and check stability. With no spans fallen, repair is a much simpler task than rebuilding or reinstalling spans.

2. Only one lane of the bridge is out of commission for the foreseeable future.

 

Instead, what I think I can see on the various video and photos, is much less rosy.

1. The fires on the rail bridge are burning out of control and at least one possibly multiple spans will collapse into the water.

2. Both E and W-bound directions are currently inoperable, with two spans in one direction completely lost and on the other only partially damages, but will be down for a week or two.

3. One of the main fiber/data trunks that were running on the railbridge is toast and so we should be seeing major communication issues right now.

Worst case (or probably a closer assessment of what is actually happening)

1. The rail bridge is a complete loss because once they lose multiple spans Russia does not have the ability to bring in the specialized bridging equipment to repair or replace the spans nor do they have those specialized concrete spans available.

2. The coms connecting Russia and Crimea are all completely severed and will be weeks if not months to repair due to the missing spans. You can't just free air 150ft of 4" conduit between the bridge pylons. The piping has to be in place before the new cabling can be put in and that won't happen until they jury rig some solution (most likely transferring it over to the auto bridges instead)

3. The auto bridge is a complete loss in both directions. It is fairly easy to accept that one direction is down 2 full spans and the other may have a full split in one of the spans based off of the various photos. This could easily mean all traffic is shut down for weeks if not months because of the lack of available spans and equipment.

 

Dont forget that this bridge was a $4 Billion project and the costs were driven by both the scale the difficulty of building the bridge in this location...

 

42 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

The direction the train was traveling is going to be something that gets overlooked in the initial shock of all of this, but if it was in fact traveling in from Russia, the propaganda machine will kick into overdrive.

If you look at the map, where else is it possible to plant explosives on the train outside of Russia itself? It can be argued that maybe it could have happened on Tuzia Island barely into Crimea, but how would that be possible because the train should be moving the entire time and those troops would be trapped afterwards...

43 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Correct. Let’s take out the last rail supply line to Kherson/Crimea is never going to be a false flag.

Kevin Rothrock had a funny comment on it: “Hot take: Prigozhin launched this attack to undermine Shoigu!”

Is “Vladimir Solovyov” just Russian for “Debbie Downer” because that’s all he is these days

 

Well done, that’s some impressive shit on the bridge demolition. 
 

Well timed and placed to hit both the rail and road bridges with a fuel train on the rail side. You really couldn’t ask for a juicer target. 

2 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

Dont forget that this bridge was a $4 Billion project and the costs were driven by both the scale the difficulty of building the bridge in this location...

side note: Reading around, some  folks discussing it who have been over the bridge are saying that vehicles only get checked/scanned leaving Crimea for Russia.  Would make the Russians go batshit crazy if the explosives were on a truck and came in from Russia, or hell, even coming in from Crimea (the FSB would go crazy purging anybody associated with the security on the Crimean side) - either way, they will have to pull at least a few hundred troops into additional security.

I’ll play armchair general for a moment: Kherson looks like it could be fairly close to falling soon.  The Ukrainians actually have had to slow down in some areas because their infantry/tanks advanced so far and so fast that they got outside of Ukrainian artillery/anti-air coverage and that stuff has to be moved up.  

Given that they disabled the Kerch Bridge for rail, and partly disabled the road/wheeled traffic, that’s going to do a few things

  • Freak civilians out - they will make a run on gas (which is happening), and they will fill up any available roads going up through the Melitopol area (see the way outdated map below).  Ukraine is about to have a shitload of the roads/rails between Melitopol and Mariupol under artillery range, if they don’t already, which will freak the civilians out even more, since military traffic will be prioritized over the Kerch bridge, meaning the civilians will have a hell of a time getting out of Crimea.
  • Will force a lot more military traffic through the Mariupol/Melitopol corridor, which again could open it up to Ukrainian artillery, but at the very least, could cause a lot of bottlenecks, slowing down logistics, which, again, Ukrainian artillery and even special operations might have juicy targets that are slow-going or stopped.

Ir Ukraine thinks they are close to taking Kherson, and not that far off from having a lot more Russian logistics near Melitopol under Ukrainian artillery range, this might be the best time to take the Kerch bridge down.  They can’t do a thunder run into Crimea, but they can sure as hell drive the Russians back into Crimea.

Regardless of what they are doing, they are damned close to isolating Crimea if that bridge is down for any length of time.

 

_125349583_ukraine_invasion_south_map_2x

Vatnik social media is exploding calling this a “suicide bombing.” I have my doubts that AFU used that kind of tactic, but it will play into Russian calls to upgrade to an “anti-terrorist” operation as opposed to a special operation.  
 

The war in Chechnya was an anti-terror operation. 

26 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I have my doubts that AFU used that kind of tactic,

I feel like it was a bomb that had been planted, and not a suicide attack.  Missile strike seems tough against a moving train target and it can’t be coincidence that a bunch of fuel tankers just happened to be going by.  
 

What does Ukrainian Ministry of Defense say?

 

sick-burn.gif

 

Here’s what the Czech military is saying:

Our engineer: Well, this is what a Vehicle Borne IED looks like at speed. I doubt there was a suicide in the vehicle. From the images it’s not clear, but other images show that nearby there was a rail car with fuel that began to burn. From the videos there are no signs of airborne rockets. 

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Vatnik social media is exploding calling this a “suicide bombing.” I have my doubts that AFU used that kind of tactic, but it will play into Russian calls to upgrade to an “anti-terrorist” operation as opposed to a special operation.  
 

The war in Chechnya was an anti-terror operation. 

Just catching up before heading to fair park. Could have been a Dagistani, Chechnyan or other pissed off group of Russians?

Fuck yes! Without the Kerch Bridge, logistics are fucked. Every Russian in Crimea might want to start finding a boat ticket. 
 

I am guessing it was a remote controlled truck filled with explosives. Actually, shit, they could of filled a truck with explosives and the Russian driver had no idea. They just remote detonated when he was near the train. 

Edited by Neonmoon

Crap, looks like one of the roads might still be passable. I think the train tracks are fucked up though. 

Edit 

Edited by Neonmoon
Double post

The Russian Ministry of Transport says train traffic will resume at 20:00 Moscow time, more updates to come later.

Almost certainly bullshit to keep people from flipping out in Crimea.

https://rg.ru/2022/10/08/mintrans-poezda-po-krymskomu-mostu-pustiat-k-20-chasam-po-moskovskomu-vremeni.html
 

Quote

According to experts, the performance of the section and the organization of the movement of the first trains will be ensured by 20:00 Moscow time," the ministry said. As specified in the Ministry of Transport, an initial assessment of the state of the infrastructure of the railway part of the Crimean bridge has already been carried out. Restoration work is underway now. The Ministry of Transport also noted that the progress of restoration work and the restoration of traffic will be reported additionally.

 

The Russian Ministry of Transport says train traffic will resume at 20:00 Moscow time, more updates to come later.
Almost certainly bullshit to keep people from flipping out in Crimea.
https://rg.ru/2022/10/08/mintrans-poezda-po-krymskomu-mostu-pustiat-k-20-chasam-po-moskovskomu-vremeni.html
 
According to experts, the performance of the section and the organization of the movement of the first trains will be ensured by 20:00 Moscow time," the ministry said. As specified in the Ministry of Transport, an initial assessment of the state of the infrastructure of the railway part of the Crimean bridge has already been carried out. Restoration work is underway now. The Ministry of Transport also noted that the progress of restoration work and the restoration of traffic will be reported additionally.
 

https://y.yarn.co/1d121c69-854d-4caa-95e9-bf27cab10d33_text.gif


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

One of my favorite things about Eastern Europeans is how they have absolutely no filter on their thoughts:

 

 


Some are saying explosives planted underneath, that a truck bomb probably would have had more of an explosion going straight up, and not necessarily dropping two spans

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Just now, SmokeyTheBear said:

Crimea Bridge is on fire and OU still sucks 

Let’s get some good music up in here

 

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