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Posted
59 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Long past time Europe divests from Russian energy.  They layed down with the Devil and need to just deal with the expense of moving to more expensive energy.  Suck it up.

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/eu-considers-faster-russian-oil-gas-exit-after-us-pressure-2025-09-10/

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STRASBOURG, Sept 10 (Reuters) - The European Union is considering a faster phase-out of Russian fossil fuels as part of new sanctions against Moscow, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday after U.S. pressure on Europe to stop buying Russian oil.
A ban on seaborne Russian crude oil has cut the EU's Russian oil imports by 90%, but Hungary and Slovakia still import via a pipeline and Europe is expected to purchase about 13% of its gas from Russia this year, though that is down from 45% before Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, EU data shows.

EU officials are in Washington to discuss coordination on further Russia sanctions to cut off funding for its war in Ukraine. However, internal divisions and the need for global support raise questions over how effective such steps will be.

 

Are we and/or the Middle East/Africa/North Sea able to meet their demand?

Posted
Long past time Europe divests from Russian energy.  They layed down with the Devil and need to just deal with the expense of moving to more expensive energy.  Suck it up.
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/eu-considers-faster-russian-oil-gas-exit-after-us-pressure-2025-09-10/
Spoiler

STRASBOURG, Sept 10 (Reuters) - The European Union is considering a faster phase-out of Russian fossil fuels as part of new sanctions against Moscow, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday after U.S. pressure on Europe to stop buying Russian oil.
A ban on seaborne Russian crude oil has cut the EU's Russian oil imports by 90%, but Hungary and Slovakia still import via a pipeline and Europe is expected to purchase about 13% of its gas from Russia this year, though that is down from 45% before Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, EU data shows.

EU officials are in Washington to discuss coordination on further Russia sanctions to cut off funding for its war in Ukraine. However, internal divisions and the need for global support raise questions over how effective such steps will be.

 


I agree but those numbers show a real commitment to decrease. To cut your purchases from 45% to 13% for an essential resource in 3 years is significant. I presume they’ll keep decreasing.

Hungary is going to Hungary and Slovakia isn’t a big factor. Overall, they seem to be doing a good job getting away from Russia.
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Posted

They're headed in the right direction and I understand it's difficult and takes time, but as long as they're purchasing ANY Russian oil, gas, or energy at all, they're still directly funding Russia's military war against Ukraine and ultimately, Russia's economic war against all of Europe and the West.

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Posted

I think the only way to end the war is with sanctions or the death of Putin. If Ukraine hit St Petersburg and Moscow with massive attacks or started to make gains in Russian territory or Crimea, I’m pretty sure I know how Putin would respond. 
 

Give me scenarios how Ukraine could win militarily. The only one I see at this point is to drag it along until Russian citizens have had enough and that isn’t likely. Maybe, I’m being negative today, though.

Posted
14 minutes ago, Bevo said:

If Ukraine hit St Petersburg and Moscow with massive attacks or started to make gains in Russian territory or Crimea, I’m pretty sure I know how Putin would respond. 

He wouldn’t use nukes.  He’s afraid of dying.  Nukes also end China, Iran, and India’s support and financial dealings.  BRICs would fall apart.  

Posted
1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Give me scenarios how Ukraine could win militarily. The only one I see at this point is to drag it along until Russian citizens have had enough and that isn’t likely. Maybe, I’m being negative today, though.

Pretty much this.  Ukraine continues to get enough resources to hold the stalemate and their people to continue to not quit.  The Russian people have proven themselves tough over many generations, but they also have proven to have limits.  We don't KNOW how close they are to those limits.  It's very possible we are doom casting and in reality they're close.  Like one trigger and they collapse into rebellion.  

As Lenin said, ""There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen."  That week might be next week.  It can happen.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Give me scenarios how Ukraine could win militarily. The only one I see at this point is to drag it along until Russian citizens have had enough and that isn’t likely. Maybe, I’m being negative today, though.

If the Russian people are forced to seriously ration gas, and get rolling blackouts, and crops are difficult to harvest, and unemployment shoots up (fuel or electricity restrictions would cripple a lot of businesses), things could/would start to get spicy. Putin has done a pretty good job of trying to isolate a lot of Russians from being affected by the war.  Impact their food supply, employment, heating and electricity, etc. and the war comes home, and they ask why Putin invaded Ukraine and why they have to pay for it.

Ukraine is going down that road of hitting the national fuel infrastructure which can make all of those other things happen.  There are no western companies rushing in to replace that infrastructure. And Russian air defenses are extremely strained as it is.

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Posted (edited)

How do Russians heat their homes?  NG, electricity, coal?  Start making it literally cold in the big cities and maybe you'd get some movement.

ETA

And the shadow fleet.  Do these ships fly Chinese or Indian flags?  If not how about sinking a few?  Ideally a long ways from Ukraine.

Edited by Parliament
Posted

That refinery, even if it wasn’t too heavily damaged, has to scare the shit out of Russia.

Quote

One of Russia's largest oil refineries was hit by Ukrainian drones, sparking a fire on Sunday, Russian officials and Ukraine's military said.

The strike on the Kirishi refinery, in Russia's northwestern Leningrad region, follows weeks of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure that Kyiv says fuels Moscow's war effort. The facility, operated by Russian oil major Surgutneftegas, produces approximately 17.7 million metric tons of crude per year – equivalent to about 355,000 barrels per day – and is one of Russia's top three oil producers by output.

Quote

Russia remains the world's second-largest oil exporter but a seasonal rise in demand and sustained Ukrainian drone strikes have caused gasoline shortages in recent weeks. To try to ease the shortage, Russia has paused gasoline exports, with officials on Wednesday declaring a full ban until Sept. 30 and a partial ban affecting traders and intermediaries until Oct. 3

 

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Posted
6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

He wouldn’t use nukes.  He’s afraid of dying.  Nukes also end China, Iran, and India’s support and financial dealings.  BRICs would fall apart.  

Yes, he is afraid of dying. I think one of his daughters even does longevity research. But, because of that, I also think he will do whatever is necessary to stay in power and stay alive. He has played his hand and backed himself into a corner.

Posted
5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

If the Russian people are forced to seriously ration gas, and get rolling blackouts, and crops are difficult to harvest, and unemployment shoots up (fuel or electricity restrictions would cripple a lot of businesses), things could/would start to get spicy. Putin has done a pretty good job of trying to isolate a lot of Russians from being affected by the war.  Impact their food supply, employment, heating and electricity, etc. and the war comes home, and they ask why Putin invaded Ukraine and why they have to pay for it.

Ukraine is going down that road of hitting the national fuel infrastructure which can make all of those other things happen.  There are no western companies rushing in to replace that infrastructure. And Russian air defenses are extremely strained as it is.


I think this is the only way. 

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Parliament said:

Does Ukraine have enough drones/missiles to do that at scale?  To knock out refineries, wait for it to be repaired, and hit it again?

Ukraine says they’re making one flamingo a day and hope to have it up to seven flamingos a day by October.  So let’s give them 2.5 a day through September.   75 ICBMs along with their long range Drones should be enough to, if nothing else, maintain the current gas supply deficit.    

I still watch the Constantine inside Russia channel.  I leave it on when I’m doing something else and pay attention when it strikes me.  On Wednesdays he does his economic update.   His latest said that 20 of 72 Russian provinces are reporting gas shortages.      

More importantly, numerous Russian businesses are doing their economic reporting, and several companies are reporting massive deficits and losses. Interestingly, the companies with severe losses include companies that make helicopters and other types of military supplies for the MOD.    Like he said, how in the world with Russia devoting everything to its military goals and ordering and paying for gobs of military equipment, can those companies be approaching bankruptcy?    He said it makes no sense in the west, but the answer is simple: the oligarchs are stealing all the money that is flowing into the companies right now - money coming in at record levels and yet somehow disappearing before it hits the books.

The very best thing the West has going for it is that Russia will always be Russia.    Russia always overcame its lack of technical skill and endemic corruption with numbers.   They had enough people to make T-34 tanks and peasant soldiers to clear minefields by walking through them. 

Now they are a shrunken impoverished gas station that no longer has gas to sell because of sanctions and refinery attacks.

Ukraine just needs to hang on another year.  Not win, just survive.  Because if they keep standing long enough, they will win.

and this is interesting. He also said that there is a recent agreement for Russia to give a huge amount (20 billion dollars) of natural gas to Turkey for free. well, not for free.  But instead of charging Turkey - Turkey promises to complete a nuclear power plant. they were both building that has since ceased construction.    

Think about that.   In an ongoing war with Petro resources dwindling and despite being cash broke, Russia has apparently agreed to deliver $20 billion worth of natural gas to Turkey and not get any cash in return.   

Edited by Gatorubet
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Posted
7 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Ukraine just needs to hang on another year.  Not win, just survive.  Because if they keep standing long enough, they will win.

This.  This is what I said pretty early in the war, when it became apparent that Ukraine wasn't going to fold like a cheap tent in a matter of days/weeks.

I've represented parties in plenty of fights against a much larger, better-funded, "heavy-hitter," bullying opponent.  And our strategy to win is quite often the same: just stand your ground.  The gorilla will charge, kick up lots of dust, beat his chest, maybe even throw a punch or two.  He will eat up your time and money.  But in the end, after he's exhausted his playbook (beat your chest and act the bully), he doesn't have a plan B.  That's when you go on the attack, and he doesn't have a fucking answer for that.  And that's when you win.  It works.  I'm not exactly a genius or novel thinker in using that strategy, it's been around a LONG time.  Ukraine knows it.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

Think about that.   In an ongoing war with Petro resources dwindling and despite being cash broke, Russia has apparently agreed to deliver $20 billion worth of natural gas to Turkey and not get any cash in return.   

I'm guessing they don't have anywhere else to send it so it's just billions of dollars of gas sitting there, waiting to be blown up.

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Posted
56 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This.  This is what I said pretty early in the war, when it became apparent that Ukraine wasn't going to fold like a cheap tent in a matter of days/weeks.

I've represented parties in plenty of fights against a much larger, better-funded, "heavy-hitter," bullying opponent.  And our strategy to win is quite often the same: just stand your ground.  The gorilla will charge, kick up lots of dust, beat his chest, maybe even throw a punch or two.  He will eat up your time and money.  But in the end, after he's exhausted his playbook (beat your chest and act the bully), he doesn't have a plan B.  That's when you go on the attack, and he doesn't have a fucking answer for that.  And that's when you win.  It works.  I'm not exactly a genius or novel thinker in using that strategy, it's been around a LONG time.  Ukraine knows it.

Exactly.  If Ukraine can make enough of a dent on their oil/gas/electricity infrastructure, to where Ukraine is always ahead of Russia's repair capabilities, they can put the squeeze on the Russian civilian population, but also arguably the military side.  It's an oligarchy, not Ye Olde Soviet Russia so they will fuck up allocating resources.

I would imagine that with the lack of Western companies and parts, there will be, to use a military term, a culminating point where Russia's inability to repair their oil & gas infrastructure will cripple the nation as a whole. And the beauty of it is that because Russia ain't cranking out new air defense systems at a rapid pace, they will have to decide where they want to skimp on air defenses - keep oil and gas going and risk reducing air defenses around military infrastructure?  Or leave oil and gas wide open?

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Posted

if they can get up to 200+ flamingos, a month, that will overwhelm they’re already sketchy air defenses or rather quickly.

Of course, the X factor is as this gets closer a desperate Soviet Union will try to destroy all electrical generation facilities - and maybe water purification/sewerage systems. Essentially Russia will go even more scorched earth on their attempt to create more civilian destruction to slow Ukraine down.  

And obviously, they will focus on flamingo and drone production sites. This is where being able to produce Ukraine munitions in NATO countries to be shipped across the border upon completion is critical.    I doubt Russia sends missile strikes into Poland or Finland, or a Baltic nation, so I hope a large part of the production is outside Ukraine.

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

Of course, the X factor is as this gets closer a desperate Soviet Union will try to destroy all electrical generation facilities - and maybe water purification/sewerage systems. Essentially Russia will go even more scorched earth try to turn Ukraine in to Russia on their attempt to create more civilian destruction to slow Ukraine down.  

 

 

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