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Posted
59 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Long past time Europe divests from Russian energy.  They layed down with the Devil and need to just deal with the expense of moving to more expensive energy.  Suck it up.

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/eu-considers-faster-russian-oil-gas-exit-after-us-pressure-2025-09-10/

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STRASBOURG, Sept 10 (Reuters) - The European Union is considering a faster phase-out of Russian fossil fuels as part of new sanctions against Moscow, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday after U.S. pressure on Europe to stop buying Russian oil.
A ban on seaborne Russian crude oil has cut the EU's Russian oil imports by 90%, but Hungary and Slovakia still import via a pipeline and Europe is expected to purchase about 13% of its gas from Russia this year, though that is down from 45% before Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, EU data shows.

EU officials are in Washington to discuss coordination on further Russia sanctions to cut off funding for its war in Ukraine. However, internal divisions and the need for global support raise questions over how effective such steps will be.

 

Are we and/or the Middle East/Africa/North Sea able to meet their demand?

Posted
Long past time Europe divests from Russian energy.  They layed down with the Devil and need to just deal with the expense of moving to more expensive energy.  Suck it up.
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/eu-considers-faster-russian-oil-gas-exit-after-us-pressure-2025-09-10/
Spoiler

STRASBOURG, Sept 10 (Reuters) - The European Union is considering a faster phase-out of Russian fossil fuels as part of new sanctions against Moscow, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday after U.S. pressure on Europe to stop buying Russian oil.
A ban on seaborne Russian crude oil has cut the EU's Russian oil imports by 90%, but Hungary and Slovakia still import via a pipeline and Europe is expected to purchase about 13% of its gas from Russia this year, though that is down from 45% before Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, EU data shows.

EU officials are in Washington to discuss coordination on further Russia sanctions to cut off funding for its war in Ukraine. However, internal divisions and the need for global support raise questions over how effective such steps will be.

 


I agree but those numbers show a real commitment to decrease. To cut your purchases from 45% to 13% for an essential resource in 3 years is significant. I presume they’ll keep decreasing.

Hungary is going to Hungary and Slovakia isn’t a big factor. Overall, they seem to be doing a good job getting away from Russia.
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Posted

They're headed in the right direction and I understand it's difficult and takes time, but as long as they're purchasing ANY Russian oil, gas, or energy at all, they're still directly funding Russia's military war against Ukraine and ultimately, Russia's economic war against all of Europe and the West.

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Posted

I think the only way to end the war is with sanctions or the death of Putin. If Ukraine hit St Petersburg and Moscow with massive attacks or started to make gains in Russian territory or Crimea, I’m pretty sure I know how Putin would respond. 
 

Give me scenarios how Ukraine could win militarily. The only one I see at this point is to drag it along until Russian citizens have had enough and that isn’t likely. Maybe, I’m being negative today, though.

Posted
14 minutes ago, Bevo said:

If Ukraine hit St Petersburg and Moscow with massive attacks or started to make gains in Russian territory or Crimea, I’m pretty sure I know how Putin would respond. 

He wouldn’t use nukes.  He’s afraid of dying.  Nukes also end China, Iran, and India’s support and financial dealings.  BRICs would fall apart.  

Posted
1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Give me scenarios how Ukraine could win militarily. The only one I see at this point is to drag it along until Russian citizens have had enough and that isn’t likely. Maybe, I’m being negative today, though.

Pretty much this.  Ukraine continues to get enough resources to hold the stalemate and their people to continue to not quit.  The Russian people have proven themselves tough over many generations, but they also have proven to have limits.  We don't KNOW how close they are to those limits.  It's very possible we are doom casting and in reality they're close.  Like one trigger and they collapse into rebellion.  

As Lenin said, ""There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen."  That week might be next week.  It can happen.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Give me scenarios how Ukraine could win militarily. The only one I see at this point is to drag it along until Russian citizens have had enough and that isn’t likely. Maybe, I’m being negative today, though.

If the Russian people are forced to seriously ration gas, and get rolling blackouts, and crops are difficult to harvest, and unemployment shoots up (fuel or electricity restrictions would cripple a lot of businesses), things could/would start to get spicy. Putin has done a pretty good job of trying to isolate a lot of Russians from being affected by the war.  Impact their food supply, employment, heating and electricity, etc. and the war comes home, and they ask why Putin invaded Ukraine and why they have to pay for it.

Ukraine is going down that road of hitting the national fuel infrastructure which can make all of those other things happen.  There are no western companies rushing in to replace that infrastructure. And Russian air defenses are extremely strained as it is.

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Posted (edited)

How do Russians heat their homes?  NG, electricity, coal?  Start making it literally cold in the big cities and maybe you'd get some movement.

ETA

And the shadow fleet.  Do these ships fly Chinese or Indian flags?  If not how about sinking a few?  Ideally a long ways from Ukraine.

Edited by Parliament
Posted

That refinery, even if it wasn’t too heavily damaged, has to scare the shit out of Russia.

Quote

One of Russia's largest oil refineries was hit by Ukrainian drones, sparking a fire on Sunday, Russian officials and Ukraine's military said.

The strike on the Kirishi refinery, in Russia's northwestern Leningrad region, follows weeks of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure that Kyiv says fuels Moscow's war effort. The facility, operated by Russian oil major Surgutneftegas, produces approximately 17.7 million metric tons of crude per year – equivalent to about 355,000 barrels per day – and is one of Russia's top three oil producers by output.

Quote

Russia remains the world's second-largest oil exporter but a seasonal rise in demand and sustained Ukrainian drone strikes have caused gasoline shortages in recent weeks. To try to ease the shortage, Russia has paused gasoline exports, with officials on Wednesday declaring a full ban until Sept. 30 and a partial ban affecting traders and intermediaries until Oct. 3

 

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Posted
6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

He wouldn’t use nukes.  He’s afraid of dying.  Nukes also end China, Iran, and India’s support and financial dealings.  BRICs would fall apart.  

Yes, he is afraid of dying. I think one of his daughters even does longevity research. But, because of that, I also think he will do whatever is necessary to stay in power and stay alive. He has played his hand and backed himself into a corner.

Posted
5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

If the Russian people are forced to seriously ration gas, and get rolling blackouts, and crops are difficult to harvest, and unemployment shoots up (fuel or electricity restrictions would cripple a lot of businesses), things could/would start to get spicy. Putin has done a pretty good job of trying to isolate a lot of Russians from being affected by the war.  Impact their food supply, employment, heating and electricity, etc. and the war comes home, and they ask why Putin invaded Ukraine and why they have to pay for it.

Ukraine is going down that road of hitting the national fuel infrastructure which can make all of those other things happen.  There are no western companies rushing in to replace that infrastructure. And Russian air defenses are extremely strained as it is.


I think this is the only way. 

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Parliament said:

Does Ukraine have enough drones/missiles to do that at scale?  To knock out refineries, wait for it to be repaired, and hit it again?

Ukraine says they’re making one flamingo a day and hope to have it up to seven flamingos a day by October.  So let’s give them 2.5 a day through September.   75 ICBMs along with their long range Drones should be enough to, if nothing else, maintain the current gas supply deficit.    

I still watch the Constantine inside Russia channel.  I leave it on when I’m doing something else and pay attention when it strikes me.  On Wednesdays he does his economic update.   His latest said that 20 of 72 Russian provinces are reporting gas shortages.      

More importantly, numerous Russian businesses are doing their economic reporting, and several companies are reporting massive deficits and losses. Interestingly, the companies with severe losses include companies that make helicopters and other types of military supplies for the MOD.    Like he said, how in the world with Russia devoting everything to its military goals and ordering and paying for gobs of military equipment, can those companies be approaching bankruptcy?    He said it makes no sense in the west, but the answer is simple: the oligarchs are stealing all the money that is flowing into the companies right now - money coming in at record levels and yet somehow disappearing before it hits the books.

The very best thing the West has going for it is that Russia will always be Russia.    Russia always overcame its lack of technical skill and endemic corruption with numbers.   They had enough people to make T-34 tanks and peasant soldiers to clear minefields by walking through them. 

Now they are a shrunken impoverished gas station that no longer has gas to sell because of sanctions and refinery attacks.

Ukraine just needs to hang on another year.  Not win, just survive.  Because if they keep standing long enough, they will win.

and this is interesting. He also said that there is a recent agreement for Russia to give a huge amount (20 billion dollars) of natural gas to Turkey for free. well, not for free.  But instead of charging Turkey - Turkey promises to complete a nuclear power plant. they were both building that has since ceased construction.    

Think about that.   In an ongoing war with Petro resources dwindling and despite being cash broke, Russia has apparently agreed to deliver $20 billion worth of natural gas to Turkey and not get any cash in return.   

Edited by Gatorubet
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Posted
7 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Ukraine just needs to hang on another year.  Not win, just survive.  Because if they keep standing long enough, they will win.

This.  This is what I said pretty early in the war, when it became apparent that Ukraine wasn't going to fold like a cheap tent in a matter of days/weeks.

I've represented parties in plenty of fights against a much larger, better-funded, "heavy-hitter," bullying opponent.  And our strategy to win is quite often the same: just stand your ground.  The gorilla will charge, kick up lots of dust, beat his chest, maybe even throw a punch or two.  He will eat up your time and money.  But in the end, after he's exhausted his playbook (beat your chest and act the bully), he doesn't have a plan B.  That's when you go on the attack, and he doesn't have a fucking answer for that.  And that's when you win.  It works.  I'm not exactly a genius or novel thinker in using that strategy, it's been around a LONG time.  Ukraine knows it.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

Think about that.   In an ongoing war with Petro resources dwindling and despite being cash broke, Russia has apparently agreed to deliver $20 billion worth of natural gas to Turkey and not get any cash in return.   

I'm guessing they don't have anywhere else to send it so it's just billions of dollars of gas sitting there, waiting to be blown up.

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Posted
56 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This.  This is what I said pretty early in the war, when it became apparent that Ukraine wasn't going to fold like a cheap tent in a matter of days/weeks.

I've represented parties in plenty of fights against a much larger, better-funded, "heavy-hitter," bullying opponent.  And our strategy to win is quite often the same: just stand your ground.  The gorilla will charge, kick up lots of dust, beat his chest, maybe even throw a punch or two.  He will eat up your time and money.  But in the end, after he's exhausted his playbook (beat your chest and act the bully), he doesn't have a plan B.  That's when you go on the attack, and he doesn't have a fucking answer for that.  And that's when you win.  It works.  I'm not exactly a genius or novel thinker in using that strategy, it's been around a LONG time.  Ukraine knows it.

Exactly.  If Ukraine can make enough of a dent on their oil/gas/electricity infrastructure, to where Ukraine is always ahead of Russia's repair capabilities, they can put the squeeze on the Russian civilian population, but also arguably the military side.  It's an oligarchy, not Ye Olde Soviet Russia so they will fuck up allocating resources.

I would imagine that with the lack of Western companies and parts, there will be, to use a military term, a culminating point where Russia's inability to repair their oil & gas infrastructure will cripple the nation as a whole. And the beauty of it is that because Russia ain't cranking out new air defense systems at a rapid pace, they will have to decide where they want to skimp on air defenses - keep oil and gas going and risk reducing air defenses around military infrastructure?  Or leave oil and gas wide open?

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Posted

if they can get up to 200+ flamingos, a month, that will overwhelm they’re already sketchy air defenses or rather quickly.

Of course, the X factor is as this gets closer a desperate Soviet Union will try to destroy all electrical generation facilities - and maybe water purification/sewerage systems. Essentially Russia will go even more scorched earth on their attempt to create more civilian destruction to slow Ukraine down.  

And obviously, they will focus on flamingo and drone production sites. This is where being able to produce Ukraine munitions in NATO countries to be shipped across the border upon completion is critical.    I doubt Russia sends missile strikes into Poland or Finland, or a Baltic nation, so I hope a large part of the production is outside Ukraine.

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

Of course, the X factor is as this gets closer a desperate Soviet Union will try to destroy all electrical generation facilities - and maybe water purification/sewerage systems. Essentially Russia will go even more scorched earth try to turn Ukraine in to Russia on their attempt to create more civilian destruction to slow Ukraine down.  

 

 

1234

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Posted
2 hours ago, KYHorn said:
Quote

Sources told Reuters that a furnace at the unit as well as other equipment was damaged in the strike, forcing production to be halted. The unit accounts for nearly 40% of the plant's production capacity, which totals to approximately 400,000 barrels per day.

Sports fans, that’s 160,000 barrels a day that are not being produced - at the exact same time Russia is unable to supply gas to all its citizens and businesses.

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Posted

I’m reposting the map from last week showing the “major” oil refineries and their location.  

Note that Kirishi is at the top of the map.  I wonder whether they flew the drones all the way over Belarus  - or stayed in Russian territory the whole time.

IMG_5215.jpeg.2183d35711e430b349db6fdff6c2279b.jpeg

IMG_0137.gif.b91d7d6a7c98e097583d06ca54349eb6.gif

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Posted
12 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Russia always overcame its lack of technical skill and endemic corruption with numbers

 

Quote

In total, the U.S. deliveries to the USSR through Lend-Lease amounted to $11 billion in materials (equivalent to $148 billion in 2023):[56] over 400,000 jeeps and trucks; 12,000 armored vehicles (including 7,000 tanks, about 1,386[57] of which were M3 Lees and 4,102 M4 Shermans);[58] 11,400 aircraft (of which 4,719 were Bell P-39 Airacobras, 3,414 were Douglas A-20 Havocs and 2,397 were Bell P-63 Kingcobras)[59] and 1.75 million tons of food.[60]

 

Quote

From October 1, 1941, to May 31, 1945, the United States delivered to the Soviet Union 427,284 trucks, 13,303 combat vehicles, 35,170 motorcycles, 2,328 ordnance service vehicles, 2,670,371 tons of petroleum products (gasoline and oil) or 57.8 percent of the aviation fuel including nearly 90 percent of high-octane fuel used,[36] 4,478,116 tons of foodstuffs (canned meats, sugar, flour, salt, etc.), 1,911 steam locomotives, 66 diesel locomotives, 9,920 flat cars, 1,000 dump cars, 120 tank cars, and 35 heavy machinery cars. Ordnance goods (ammunition, artillery shells, mines, assorted explosives) provided amounted to 53 percent of total domestic consumption.[36] One item typical of many was a tire plant that was lifted bodily from the Ford Company's River Rouge Plant and transferred to the USSR. The 1947 money value of the supplies and services amounted to about $11.3 billion.[65][66] Unlike the other allies, the Soviets believed these supplies to be gifts to their war effort and even items that were to be returned to the US after the war, such as ships, were sent back as completely stripped hulls.[52]

 

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Posted

it is very true we gave them a ton of stuff, including a ton of stuff that was sunk by the Germans on the way there.

But the waves of human mine sweepers was all on the Soviet Union - and it’s policy of “quantity having a quality all its own”

Posted
On 9/13/2025 at 10:24 AM, atomheartbevo said:

Are we and/or the Middle East/Africa/North Sea able to meet their demand?

On 9/13/2025 at 10:29 AM, Stringer said:


I agree but those numbers show a real commitment to decrease. To cut your purchases from 45% to 13% for an essential resource in 3 years is significant. I presume they’ll keep decreasing.
 

On 9/13/2025 at 10:43 AM, utee94 said:

They're headed in the right direction and I understand it's difficult and takes time, but as long as they're purchasing ANY Russian oil, gas, or energy at all, they're still directly funding Russia's military war against Ukraine and ultimately, Russia's economic war against all of Europe and the West.

They can decrease the purchases from Russia. They won't decrease the purchases entirely, at least not willingly.

This comes up a lot. Worldwide Oil Production ~ 100,000,000 Barrels/day (BPD).  The US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia eash produce over 10,000,000 BPD. Nobody else is anywhere close, few even produce half that amount. In a balanced market, cutting off 10+% of the supply affects 100% of the market.

The US is probably the only market where people bitch about gasoline & diesel prices.  Everybody else knows they import crude oil and refined products, and understands they are pawns in the market place. The US is also a pawn, but everybody in the US believes it is their birthright to always have cheap gas.   Oh, and the collective mindset of the US, it what you would expect from a bunch of idiots. 

The US leads the world in oil production, and also leads the world in oil consumption, by a significant amount. A large portion of the "US consumption" is actually crude oil used to make refined transportation fuels that are exported and actually consumed by the importing countries. The US produced and imported oil is refined in the US, the gasoline mostly stays here, and the excess diesel is exported.

With Russia as a pariah, and the US watching/endorsing Israel bombing Qatar, I would expect the Middle East-US mindset to be neutral at best, meaning the US would be in a bidding war for crude oil; Exxon, Chevron & Conoco bidding against Europe, China, India, Japan, S. Korea, etc.

image.png.b01b3b9deb07c0b41765fb78d65c4f54.png 

On 9/13/2025 at 12:11 PM, MissingInAction said:

Drill baby drill!

To replace 1,000,000 BPD of "lost" oil production would take ~ 300 new wells in the permian. Each well 10,000 feet down, another 10,000 foot "lateral, at a cost of $10,000,000/well, or $3 Billion total, with a "B".

Nobody in the US is drilling based on $60 oil. Prices have to move up first. Stopping Russian exports is the first domino.

On 9/14/2025 at 3:41 PM, atomheartbevo said:

That refinery, even if it wasn’t too heavily damaged, has to scare the shit out of Russia.

Yes, any fireball on the horizon in Russia is a good thing.

On 9/15/2025 at 11:03 AM, atomheartbevo said:

I'm guessing they don't have anywhere else to send it so it's just billions of dollars of gas sitting there, waiting to be blown up.

Mostly, it is just shut-in in place underground. Russia could earn some "good will" by paying it forward to Turkey & China and others, but producing and giving it away has a chance of future benefits, whereas the shut-in gas is worth nothing.  

19 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

image.png.b761a8b98f4253c8ab84667871a7bae9.png

Hitting any Russian Refinery. anywhere is good. just for the optics.

But not all attacks are equal.

The new Saratov Refinery attack caused a fire in the red polygon. That appears to be proximate to some manifolds and some above ground piping. Nothing that seems to be critical and out of commission for very long period. 

image.thumb.png.6b18dcd7be55008cf096069f0697e665.png

A google screen shot shows the fire location relative to the refinery footprint.

IMO, hitting anything in the yellow polygons was probably a much better target than what they hit.

Recently, Ukraine has targeted, and hit, specific process towers. Those are among the highest value targets in Russia, because they reduce fuel production, reduce export revenue, and are very difficult to replace, given sanctions and difficulties Russia will have in getting replacement parts, controls and instrumentation.

Hitting storage tanks makes big fireballs, but 2 or 3 of the larger tanks is only ~ 1 days/ worth of production. Knocking out the main process towers means a 40% reduction in total refining capacity for ~ 6 months, or longer.

Seeing Ukraine specify vessel names and numbers, and hitting them, makes my heart go pitter patter.

Screenshot2025-09-16at2_26_19PM.png.bebdb4eb08c8a836cf35e4f81bda7799.png

 

 

 

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Posted

Exclusive: Russia close to cutting oil output due to drone attacks, sources say

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-close-cutting-oil-output-due-drone-attacks-sources-say-2025-09-16/

Spoiler

LONDON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Russia's oil pipeline monopoly Transneft (TRNF_p.MM), has warned producers they may have to cut output following Ukraine's drone attacks on critical export ports and refineries, three industry sources said on Tuesday.
In a statement on its website, Transneft described the news as "fake" and part of the West's "information war" against Russia.
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Kyiv has stepped up attacks on Russian energy assets since August in a bid to impede Moscow's war effort in Ukraine and reduce the Kremlin's revenues as attempts to secure an end to the conflict through peace talks have stalled.
OIL AND GAS - RUSSIA'S KEY SOURCE OF FINANCING
Oil and gas revenues have accounted for between a third and half of Russia's total federal budget proceeds over the past decade, making the sector the single most important source of financing for the government.
Ukrainian drones have hit at least 10 refineries - cutting Russia's refining capacity by almost a fifth at one point - and damaged its leading Baltic Sea ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, Ukrainian military officials and Russian industry sources said.
Russian authorities have not publicly commented on the extent of the damage or its impact on production and exports.
However, Transneft, which handles more than 80% of all the oil extracted in Russia, has in recent days restricted oil firms' ability to store oil in its pipeline system, two industry sources close to Russian oil firms told Reuters.
Transneft has also warned producers it may have to accept less oil if its infrastructure sustains further damage, the two sources said.
The attacks could force Russia, which accounts for 9% of global oil production, to ultimately cut output, said the two sources and a third source familiar with oil pumping operations.
The three sources asked not to be named due to sensitivity of the issue.
"The appearance of such fake news with reference to some unnamed sources in the Russian fuel and energy complex causes damage to the image of PAO Transneft," Transneft said in its statement.
"It can only be caused by the attempts to destabilize the situation within the framework of the information war unleashed by the West against the Russian Federation," it added.
DRONE STRIKES: 'THE FASTEST WORKING SANCTIONS'?
The West has imposed successive waves of sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, focusing heavily on its oil and gas sector. But Moscow has managed to re-route most oil exports to Asia, where India and China are its primary buyers.
Last week, Ukrainian drones hit Russia's biggest oil port of Primorsk for the first time since the war began in 2022, temporarily forcing operations there to shut down.
Primorsk has capacity to export more than 1 million barrels of oil per day, or more than 10% of Russia's total oil production.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the strikes had inflicted significant damage and called attacks on Russian oil infrastructure "the sanctions that work the fastest".
Reuters could not verify the extent of the damage from the strikes.
Russia, unlike leading OPEC producer Saudi Arabia, does not have significant capacity to stockpile oil.
Primorsk partially resumed operations on Saturday, though it remained unclear how long it may take to complete full repairs, the two sources said.
Russian had already lost some oil exporting capacity following another drone attack targeting the Ust-Luga oil terminal on the Baltic Sea in August, according to industry sources.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia - a group known as OPEC+ - have been increasing production since April after years of cuts aimed at supporting the oil market.
Under the latest OPEC+ agreement, Russia's oil production quota is due to rise to 9.449 million barrels per day this month from 9.344 million bpd in August.
"Russia's ability to ramp up oil production is now under threat due to limited storage capacity," U.S. bank J.P. Morgan said in a note.
Refinery outages, meanwhile, will also weigh on production due to crude storage congestion from lower refinery runs, Goldman Sachs wrote.
Both banks said production will decline only modestly as Asian buyers still had appetite for Russian crude.
Reporting by Reuters. Editing by Joe Bavier and Mark Potter

 

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Posted (edited)
On 9/14/2025 at 10:42 AM, Bevo said:

Give me scenarios how Ukraine could win militarily. The only one I see at this point is to drag it along until Russian citizens have had enough and that isn’t likely. Maybe, I’m being negative today, though.

Russia has had significant recent crop failures and harvest reductions.  Since the war started, Russia has not had access to the genetically modified seed grain from the Netherlands that it uses for its bumper harvests.  The economy is imploding.  Even Russia economists say that the economy has stopped growing.  The men who had the jobs that kept the economy going have been shipped off to the meat grinder. The other men fled when prescription was first called.  Businesses have to borrow money at interest rate rates up to the 20s and 30s.   Even military contractors who should be rolling in cash are nearing bankruptcy from the corruption siphoning off all those MOD funds.  They can’t supply gas to businesses and people who want to drive their shitty cars.   

Russian history seems to support that the long-suffering people will put up with anything - until they don’t. Honestly, I’m as positive about this as I have been in some time.  Russia moves things by train rather than the Russian equivalent of an 18 wheeler.  Ukraine needs to start hitting more trains and train tracks and railroad bridges.

 

Edited by Gatorubet
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Posted
43 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Russia has had significant recent crop failures and harvest reductions.  Since the war started, Russia has not had access to the genetically modified seed grain from the Netherlands that it uses for its bumper harvests.  The economy is imploding.  Even Russia economists say that the economy has stopped growing.  The men who had the jobs that kept the economy going have been shipped off to the meat grinder. The other men fled when prescription was first called.  Businesses have to borrow money at interest rate rates up to the 20s and 30s.   Even military contractors who should be rolling in cash are nearing bankruptcy from the corruption siphoning off all those MOD funds.  They can’t supply gas to businesses and people who want to drive their shitty cars.   

Russian history seems to support that the long-suffering people will put up with anything - until they don’t. Honestly, I’m as positive about this as I have been in some time.  Russia moves things by train rather than the Russian equivalent of an 18 wheeler.  Ukraine needs to start hitting more trains and train tracks and railroad bridges.

 

The problem with railroad infrastructure is that it's easy to hit, but also easy to fix. 

Maybe they go after the engines with more enthusiasm?

 

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Posted
43 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Russia has had significant recent crop failures and harvest reductions.  Since the war started, Russia has not had access to the genetically modified seed grain from the Netherlands that it uses for its bumper harvests.  The economy is imploding.  Even Russia economists say that the economy has stopped growing.  The men who had the jobs that kept the economy going have been shipped off to the meat grinder. The other men fled when prescription was first called.  Businesses have to borrow money at interest rate rates up to the 20s and 30s.   Even military contractors who should be rolling in cash are nearing bankruptcy from the corruption siphoning off all those MOD funds.  They can’t supply gas to businesses and people who want to drive their shitty cars.   

Russian history seems to support that the long-suffering people will put up with anything - until they don’t. Honestly, I’m as positive about this as I have been in some time.  Russia moves things by train rather than the Russian equivalent of an 18 wheeler.  Ukraine needs to start hitting more trains and train tracks and railroad bridges.

Some of the OSINT folks have been pointing out some interesting stuff 

This whole thread is an interesting read, compiling reports of fuel shortages/reductions by region, and how fuel is being shuffled around (who is getting it, who is being left out, etc.).

 

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