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Posted
9 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

I'm working towards my phd in History, and so I've had to step back a tad on actively posting (but still been keeping up with everything). Last assignment was submitted until Spring, so I have some of my time back:

https://www.threads.com/@bohuslavska_kate/post/DPmEoExjNM1?xmt=AQF0hcZ1abd971p7E5WPBwuOIGljshGfCzBTJyjG86wsjQ

Occupied Feodosiya. Burning oil depot close up 🔥

 

https://www.threads.com/@spravdi.gov.ua/post/DPlXM6yCK7b?xmt=AQF086fDI1jqZcI6oLx34PWGfXvJl4zj1Q1j5zVWNUFDGA

Russian stock market crashes -4% on the day as the fuel crisis begins to paralyze the economy.


^Catastophic for that tank, hard to tell how much damage is on the one in the distance. It also looks like it's starting to really bite
 

We were counting on you! 

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

This came up in the AI thread, and I saw it when it originally came out, but imagine this stuff just a few months from now and how fast it can move around social media.

 

I really wish people (read: decision makers at tech entities and media platforms) would put more effort into information assurance and validation. Hell, even just PGP signing videos/content from original sources would go a loooooong way to proving authenticity. 

Edited by Captainant
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Posted

https://www.threads.com/@bohuslavska_kate/post/DPmLzN1jG3l?xmt=AQF0hbFy3EQk-DPoTuCxB1zvVwAno85rkyOayZLinpnjkg

Former Smolensk official Oleg Ivanov burnt in a camper fire on his birthday.
According to reports, his body was found in a burned-out van. Ivanov had previously overseen youth affairs and patriotic education in the Smolensk region, Russia.
Burned out at work, huh? 🙃

https://www.threads.com/@24hoursofukraine/post/DPlgK_YiLNt?xmt=AQF04MEtNacWp6jnvDdEqCdK1jojWiq6I48g44BdDZxFdQ

🦩🔥💥Flamingo missiles were reportedly launched at the location of an FSB base on the occupied Crimean peninsula.

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Posted
Quote

Just sent out this free post. Something notable has happened in the last few months (particularly since the Putin-Trump love fest in Alaska). GOP public opinion in the USA, which Trump had almost singlehandedly made Ukraine-skeptical earlier, has moved away from Putin and towards Ukraine.

Quote

The most frustrating thing about this war is that the US could step in forcefully now with harsh sanctions against Russia and a large military package for Ukraine with ranged weapons as the centrepiece, and the war would end soon with a Russian defeat. All it requires is the determination to do the right thing. The Russian military is beatable and the Russian economy is weakening.

Something Interesting Is Happening With GOP Public Opinion - Phillips P. OBrien

I do think a lot of people are starting to realize just how serious Ukraine's strategy against Russian oil & gas infrastructure is, and how much it's paying off.

We like to joke around here about everything being two weeks out, but if we are starting to see gas shortages/fuel rationing already (and have been for a bit), and if Russia is having to import gasoline from China, and we see delivery trucks/long-haul trucks being idled, and Ukraine keeps plinking away at refineries and pumping stations and other facilities, it's going to start affecting delivery of food as well. Another 2 or 4 weeks of this stuff means fewer air defense systems operating, more shortages at a much larger scale, even more of a repair backlog (due to lack of parts and probably manpower that's been shipped off to the front).

Residents of Moscow and St. Petersburg can probably weather fuel shortages for the short term better than a lot of Russian cities, given they have mass transit systems in place, but let's see what a disruption of food supplies can do, as well as what the good ole Russian black market is going to do for fuel and food.  And that's before we get into the Russian winter.

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Posted
49 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

but let's see what a disruption of food supplies can do, as well as what the good ole Russian black market is going to do for fuel and food.  And that's before we get into the Russian

One thing that we know for sure, and that is that the MOD will be getting first priority on the fuel.  The fuel that is scarce. The fuel that is increasingly expensive. The fuel that the private sector requires so that companies don’t go out of business because they can’t deliver products or services.

But this is Russia. And in Russia, when you have a product that you can sell at an inflated price that everyone will buy, you can bet your ass that Russian generals are selling military gas as quickly and in such volume as people can pay them.   

Some of them will get rich before they fly out of windows on their birthdays, but this continuing fuel shortage scenario will continue to be the precursor to more significant economic collapse.

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

, but this continuing fuel shortage scenario will continue to be the precursor to more significant economic collapse.

Even if Russian trucking starts to shut down, I'm sure the major cities are heavily supplied by rail, but somebody has to get the food from the farmes to the rail depots, or at least to the food processing plants/warehouses and then to the rail depots. And from the rail depots to the grocery stores. When does that start to break down?

It's like Hemingway said: "How did you go bankrupt?" Bill asked. "Two ways," Mike said. "Gradually and then suddenly."

Edited by atomheartbevo

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