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Posted
10 hours ago, Parliament said:

Disappointing the Allies continue to rely on military weapon parts bought from an ally of our enemy.

How much effort has been put in to developing non-Chinese manufacturing of this stuff?

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/10/29/china-blocks-ukraine-drone-parts-supply-route/

Screenshot_20251030_084434_Chrome.jpg

That’s pretty fucking terrible. Does the entire combined west match chinas output for these things? 

without direct intervention, I’m not sure China can prevent Russia’s defeat, but the fact that we’re still negotiating with China and expecting them to actually follow through with soybean purchase commitments and “rare” earth sales shows how pathetically desperate we are. 

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Posted

Somebody about to take a short trip out of a high window.

Russian priest-monk on the realities among Russian soldiers: "There are all kinds of people [in the army]. Not everyone can be trusted. Not everyone is ready to die. Many want to survive. And those who want to survive can be very dangerous - because they can betray everyone.

A person who goes to war must be humble. He must be ready to die himself, but save his comrade. That’s the only way."

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Posted

(2) Anton Gerashchenko on X: "An approximate estimate of the financial losses of the Russian aviation sector in 2025 due to the regular implementation of the "Kover" (closure of airspace) plan during Ukrainian drone attacks, based solely on open Russian sources, could amount to about $1.6-$2.4 billion. Over https://t.co/k09cUNvIa2" / X

An approximate estimate of the financial losses of the Russian aviation sector in 2025 due to the regular implementation of the "Kover" (closure of airspace) plan during Ukrainian drone attacks, based solely on open Russian sources, could amount to about $1.6-$2.4 billion.

Over the first eight months of 2025, restrictions due to Ukrainian drone attacks were introduced nearly 500 times at Russian airports, according to a summary based on RBC data as of early October. Indicative daily losses for airlines during a collapse similar to the one on July 5-6 (mass closures at several key airports) "could cost airlines up to about 20 billion rubles (approximately $247 million) per day." This estimate was published by Kommersant and later echoed by Forbes and Mail.ru Finance.

For example, at St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Airport, during the first wave of closures on July 4-7 (172 flights canceled), direct losses for Pulkovo amounted to about 50-55 million rubles (approximately $617,600-$679,400). Total losses over the summer are estimated at about 100-150 million rubles ($1.24-$1.85 million), while airlines faced higher costs due to hotels, transfers, and passenger rebooking. In October, a series of simultaneous shutdowns occurred at 7-11 airports (Volgograd, Kazan, Samara, Krasnodar, Sochi, Kaluga, Yaroslavl, Nizhny Novgorod, Ulyanovsk, Izhevsk, Ufa), as confirmed by Rosaviatsiya and Russian media.

An average day with multiple closures (five to ten airports) is proportionally less costly - roughly about 12 billion rubles ($74.1-$148.2 million) per day for airlines (an extrapolation from a "major day," adjusted for the number of affected hubs and flights). Local or short-term closures (one to three airports for two to four hours) are estimated to cost airlines 1-3 billion rubles per day ($12.35-$37.05 million), and airports 5-30 million rubles ($61,800-$370,600), depending on traffic (extrapolated based on the Pulkovo calibration).

Out of the roughly 500 incidents over ten months, only part were "major days." The estimated total losses for Russian airlines from January to October 2025 (direct and quasi-direct costs, including rebooking, meals/hotels, compensations, fuel/crew, and downtime) amounted to approximately 120–180 billion rubles ($1.48-$2.23 billion).

For airports, approximate losses (non-aero + aero revenues, ground handling, parking, retail/food & beverage, and other services) amounted to about 8-15 billion rubles ($100-$186 million). In total, for the entire sector (airlines + airports), the estimated losses are around 130-195 billion rubles ($1.6-$2.4 billion) for 2025 (as of early October).

These figures reflect an approximate order of magnitude derived from Russian publications and scaling.

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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

So….that interceptor drone….

c41aacfa7ebfe5c0d8d6079ebd1ad79a.jpg

There’s a 100% chance some bored Russian soldier is gonna find one of those that ran outta fuel and stick it up his butt.

*joules

Hopefully these are similar to the ones we’re developing that will return home and land if they can’t hit their target. These should never be used where a Russian may be, ahem, tempted by them, which is good because Russia really needs to mimic the design. See the interview video in post 91555.

Edited by B00M
Posted

Ukraine closes embassy in hurricane-stricken Cuba - due to Russian recruitment of Cuban soldiers

Away from the battlefield, Ukraine's relations with Cuba have come under strain.

Kyiv announced yesterday it has closed its embassy in Havana and is downgrading diplomatic ties over the high number of Cuban citizens allegedly joining Russia's war in Ukraine.

Earlier, Ukraine also voted against a UN resolution that would end the US embargo against the island nation, a few hours after the country was hit by a generational hurricane.

Ukraine's foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, said the vote was a reaction to "the inaction of Cuba's authorities" in response to Russia's "massive" recruitment of Cuban citizens to its armed forces.

"Thousands of them have signed contracts, joining the ranks of soldiers directly engaged in combat operations on Ukrainian soil," he wrote on X.

According to an unclassified US cable, up to 5,000 Cubans are fighting in Ukraine, though Cuba has denied this.

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Posted
11 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

So….that interceptor drone….

c41aacfa7ebfe5c0d8d6079ebd1ad79a.jpg

There’s a 100% chance some bored Russian soldier is gonna find one of those that ran outta fuel and stick it up his butt.

This sounds like one of those "Every accusation is a confession" things...

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Posted
13 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

So….that interceptor drone….

c41aacfa7ebfe5c0d8d6079ebd1ad79a.jpg

There’s a 100% chance some bored Russian soldier is gonna find one of those that ran outta fuel and stick it up his butt.

Anything is a dildo if a Ukrainian flies it up your ass.

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Posted
14 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

https://www.threads.com/@_nickmelnick/post/DQfCwz5DFM9?xmt=AQF0tppd1oc7n5S32quasIOQsrbxkCPeU00BhU91KVnNTQ

️A UH-60 “Black Hawk” helicopter deploys a group of Ukrainian special forces behind Russian lines in the Pokrovsk sector.According to The Economist journalists, the goal of the operation is to regain control over key roads leading into the city.

^Cool

I'm hopeful that the release of this video is an indication that they've already taken back control over some of those key roads.

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

https://www.threads.com/@_nickmelnick/post/DQfCwz5DFM9?xmt=AQF0tppd1oc7n5S32quasIOQsrbxkCPeU00BhU91KVnNTQ

️A UH-60 “Black Hawk” helicopter deploys a group of Ukrainian special forces behind Russian lines in the Pokrovsk sector.According to The Economist journalists, the goal of the operation is to regain control over key roads leading into the city.

^Cool

1 hour ago, Chad Fuck said:

I'm hopeful that the release of this video is an indication that they've already taken back control over some of those key roads.

Unfortunately it's a numbers game, and Russia is committing a massive amount of their forces to trying to get the city so Putin has a psychological win.  It's bad for Ukraine in that they could lose it and they don't like to give up territory, but it's also good for Ukraine - it's tying up a lot of Russian troops using a relatively small number of Ukraine forces, and leaving Russia spread thin elsewhere. And it also creates a bulge for Russia which leaves them exposed.

Posted

Tonight's attacks on Russia.  I saw an article on the discussion of the Flamingo missiles, and that they've actually not used a lot of them and appear to be stockpiling them.  Would be interesting if they are using a lot of current/older stuff to hammer or deplete Russian air defenses and to pick off easy targets, and are saving the big ones for something major.

If they've actually destroyed almost half of Pantsir systems since January, I bet the other half are around Moscow, St. Petersburg, and probably a few important air bases. The Pantsirs are only about 12 years old, so relatively modern, and are important to Russia (they can reach out to over 30km, but have close-in conventional guns as well). Zelenskyy publicly said the Pantsir are a priority.

G4nUiHYWAAAmSPr?format=jpg&name=large

Posted (edited)

I see a lot more arrows on that map than I recall from evenings-past.

ETA

That "something major" Flamingo attack needs to be one big volley on a historically-important date.

Edited by Parliament
Posted
21 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I see a lot more arrows on that map than I recall from evenings-past.

ETA

That "something major" Flamingo attack needs to be one big volley on a historically-important date.

I'm guessing they are waiting to really blow things open with the Flamingos until more major AD systems are down (or at least the radars).  Looks like they've produced 200+ since 2012, and if Ukraine has wrecked 100 or more since January, there's no way they can come close to replacing them at 15-20 a year (and I wonder about that given the lack of Western parts).

The only dates I see coming up.  Unity day would be hilarious.

  • Unity Day – 4th of November
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  • Constitution Day – 12th of December
Posted

 

Quote

After months of being played by the Russians, it seems US President Donald Trump has had enough. On 23 October the United States has fully sanctioned Russia's largest oil firms, barring interactions with US firms and corporations. Here's what it means, what's at stake, and what's next.

 

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Posted (edited)

As U.S. ramps up pressure, Venezuela pleads with Moscow and Beijing for help
Documents show Maduro drafted letter asking Russia for missiles, radars and upgraded aircraft as U.S. forces amass in the Caribbean.

https://archive.ph/nMxIM

Spoiler

Amid a buildup of American forces in the Caribbean, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is reaching out to Russia, China and Iran to enhance its worn military capabilities and solicit assistance — requesting defensive radars, aircraft repairs and potentially missiles — according to internal U.S. government documents obtained by The Washington Post.
The requests to Moscow were made in the form of a letter meant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and was intended to be delivered during a visit to the Russian capital by a senior aide this month.
Maduro, according to the documents, also composed a letter to Chinese President Xi Jinping seeking “expanded military cooperation” between their two countries to counter “the escalation between the U.S. and Venezuela.”
In the letter, Maduro asked the Chinese government to expedite Chinese companies’ production of radar detection systems, presumably so Venezuela could enhance its capabilities.


The documents say Transport Minister Ramón Celestino Velásquez also recently coordinated a shipment of military equipment and drones from Iran while planning a visit to that country. He told an Iranian official that Venezuela was in need of “passive detection equipment,” “GPS scramblers” and “almost certainly drones with 1,000 km [600 mile] range,” the documents state.
“In the missive, Maduro emphasized the seriousness of perceived U.S. aggression in the Caribbean, framing U.S. military action against Venezuela as action against China due to their shared ideology,” the U.S. documents said.
It’s unclear from the documents how Russia, China and Iran responded.

Russia remains the primary lifeline for Maduro. On Sunday, an Ilyushin Il-76 — one of the Russian aircraft sanctioned in 2023 by the United States for participating in the arms trade and transporting mercenaries — arrived in Caracas, Venezuela’s capital, after a circuitous route over Africa to avoid Western airspace, according to Flightradar24. The Kremlin declined to comment on the letter, but the Foreign Ministry on Friday evening said that Moscow supports Venezuela “in defending its national sovereignty” and stands “ready to respond appropriately to the requests of our partners in light of emerging threats.”
Moscow also just ratified a new strategic treaty with Caracas.
The machinations shows how much Moscow stands to lose should the embattled Venezuelan leader fall. High-profile projects between the two countries continue to roll out, including a Kalashnikov munitions factory that opened in July in the Venezuelan state of Aragua, about 20 years after it was pledged. Moscow also has exploration rights for potentially billions of dollars in untapped natural gas and oil reserves.
Yet despite the optics, observers say, Moscow’s means and interest in supporting Maduro may be reduced compared to years past. The standoff between Washington and Caracas could even offer the Russians some unexpected benefits as it turns American attention away from Europe.

Mired in a war in Ukraine, and eyeing closer cooperation with other Latin American partners, Moscow has gradually curtailed its interest in Venezuela in recent years with little sign of a surge in support because of the current crisis.
“The fact that we’ve moved over 10 percent of our naval assets to the Caribbean is already a win, in some regards, for Putin,” said James Story, a former U.S. ambassador to Venezuela and founding partner of Global Frontier Advisors, a geopolitical consultancy. “Our renewed interest in all things Western Hemisphere divides our attention on Ukraine. And that’s a good thing for Putin.”
The political and economic ties between Russia and Venezuela date to Hugo Chávez, the father of its socialist state, following his rise to power in 1999. The relationship flourished during the 2000s, 2010s and early 2020s. Today, it spans the vital petrochemicals sector, weapons purchases, shared propaganda operations and opaque cryptocurrency deals, according to analysts.
The U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean is presenting perhaps the greatest challenge to Maduro, Chávez’s successor, since he took over the country’s leadership in 2013. More than a dozen U.S. strikes on alleged drug traffickers, largely departing from Venezuelan shores, have killed at least 61 people since September. The administration has not presented proof that the ships were involved in drug trafficking and Maduro has denied they were.
The USS Gerald Ford, the Navy’s heaviest and most modern aircraft carrier, has been dispatched to the region.
The official messaging from Moscow on Trump’s actions against Venezuela, however, has been relatively restrained.AI Icon
 In early October, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov “expressed serious concern over the increasing escalation of Washington’s activities in the Caribbean Sea” in a call with his Venezuelan counterpart.
On Wednesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow “respects Venezuela’s sovereignty” and believes the issue should be resolved in accordance with “international law” — a talking point the Kremlin often employs to sidestep sensitive geopolitical questions.
But Russia is now more occupied closer to home, fighting a war and Western sanctions of its own. Defense analysts say Moscow has shifted some of its key Latin American listening posts from Venezuela to Nicaragua, where the pro-Russian authoritarian President Daniel Ortega has solidified his grip on power.
“The reality is that Russia has been relatively quiet on Venezuela,” said Douglas Farah, president of the national security consulting firm IBI Consultants. “And they’ve spent very little political capital defending Maduro.”
The Venezuelan president, however, is in the midst of shoring up his defenses and needs Moscow.

Appeal to Russia
In mid-October, Velásquez, the transportation minister, traveled to Moscow for a meeting with his Russian counterpart, according to Russia’s Transport Ministry. According to documents obtained by The Post, he was also meant to deliver the letter from Maduro to Putin.
In the letter, Maduro requested that the Russians help boost his country’s air defenses, including restoring several Russian Sukhoi Su-30MK2 aircraft previously purchased by Venezuela. Maduro also asked for assistance overhauling eight engines and five radars in Russia, acquiring 14 sets of what were believed to be Russian missiles, as well as unspecified “logistical support,” according to the documents.
Maduro emphasized that Russian-made Sukhoi fighters “represented the most important deterrent the Venezuelan National Government had when facing the threat of war,” according to the U.S. records.
Maduro asked Russia for a “medium-term financing plan of three years” through Rostec, the Russian state-owned defense conglomerate. The documents did not specify an amount.
The documents also indicate that Velásquez was slated to meet with and deliver a second letter to Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov. They do not state whether or how the Russian government responded to Maduro’s outreach or whether the trip took place.

‘Pure junk’
Chávez began what would become years of Russian weapons purchases, including Russian-made tanks, Sukhoi fighters and surface-to-air missiles.
Analysts and officials familiar with the Venezuelan military say much of what was purchased is nonoperational or outdated. One former Venezuelan military official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity out of fear of reprisals, said that by 2018, Venezuela had fewer than five Russian-built Sukhois operating.
Chávez also bought Russian helicopters and stocked Russians missiles, he said. But many of them are old and represent no real threat against the U.S. military.
“Chávez bought, or Russia sold Venezuela, pure junk,” he said.
Maduro this month, however, claimed Venezuela had deployed 5,000 Russian-made Igla-S portable surface-to-air missiles nationwide.
A regime change in Venezuela would be a major blow to Moscow, potentially representing the loss of a major ally while significantly weakening another, Cuba — an even longer-standing ally of Moscow’s whose intelligence community is closely intertwined with Maduro’s Venezuela — who observers say could be next on Washington’s list.
But some observers question Russia’s dedication to Maduro. The public signaling now is different from in 2019, when, in a visible show of force at the U.S.-backed Maduro opposition, about 100 Russian troops led by Gen. Vasily Tonkoshkurov arrived in Venezuela on an AN-124 military transport.
Even the cooperation treaty with Venezuela stops short of a real military pledge. Victor Jeifets, editor in chief of Russian scientific journal “Latin America,” said the treaty — which covers topics including money laundering and nuclear proliferation — is vague on military cooperation, simply suggesting that the two parties “improve ties in the field of defense.”
With its forces tied up in Ukraine, Russia is also less capable of assisting a friendly leader across the Atlantic, even if it wanted to.
“Would Russia do anything [in case of a U.S. operation]? I think it is not in the immediate plans of the Russian authorities,” Jeifets said.

Oil ties
Russia is still a major player in Venezuelan oil, a thick sludgy crude product requiring substantial processing. The Russians provide essential inputs for processing that crude as well as supplies of gasoline to keep the industry running.
Russian state companies have direct investments in three Venezuelan joint ventures that produce 107,000 barrels of crude per day, or about 11 percent of Venezuela’s total current production, and generate approximately $67 million a month, said Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin American Energy Program at Rice University.
Russia also owns lucrative exploration and export rights to Venezuela’s Patao and Mejillones offshore gas fields. Its rights to proved but untapped reserves of Venezuelan crude are additionally worth as much as $5 billion, Monaldi said.
But Venezuelan crude — sanctioned in the U.S. — is a competitor of Russia’s domestic oil industry, which is also under U.S. sanctions and therefore shares some clients, like China.
“The Russians are not investing in Venezuela anymore. That’s the bottom line,” Monaldi added.

 

Edited by KYHorn
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Posted
2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

As U.S. ramps up pressure, Venezuela pleads with Moscow and Beijing for help
Documents show Maduro drafted letter asking Russia for missiles, radars and upgraded aircraft as U.S. forces amass in the Caribbean.

https://archive.ph/nMxIM

It was interesting that Russia sent a large cargo plane to Venezuela, associated with Wagoner (very interesting given how Russian PMCs have dropped out of sight in Ukraine).

But even Russia knows the Epstein files aren't going to cover themselves up.

Posted

^^^^ I doubt Hedgehog lets the Pentagon give the green light unless he's already cleared it with Trump.  Interesting.

And Ukraine did some damage.

And apparently Ukraine let Russia know they were coming.

And the Kremlin admitted there were drones around Moscow (although it was clear to residents who were watching social media).

G4n69loWUAAQ2Hv?format=jpg&name=large

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