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Posted
37 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Asset hoarding among the wealthy will begin to fight the cold. Don't think the middle class and poor wont notice the running generators the rich can afford to source and the lights = heat on in their homes. Mean while they are cold in the dark. That video above mentioned it, you can't spin that knowledge and day to day reality out of existing with propaganda.

Not just the rich, but the middle-class bureaucrats that are skimming fuel and funds.  Blackout curtains don’t cover up the sounds of generators on the balcony.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Not just the rich, but the middle-class bureaucrats that are skimming fuel and funds.  Blackout curtains don’t cover up the sounds of generators on the balcony.

Nope, the reason I noted generators first. I have a whole house generator and I know everyone in my "hollar" can hear it when it kicks on. Tennessee grid likes to compete with Texas grid for "How can it suck so bad" trophies. 

Edited by BurntEyes
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Posted

Countries like South Africa and Serbia f i n a l l y turning away from Russia has to mean good things. Regardless of the outcome in Ukraine, I don’t see how Russia’s global influence isn’t crippled or effectively dead afterwards

Posted


https://mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-dispatch-5-ukraines-new-directorate

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/contributors/articles/mick-ryan
 

A key observation is that the frontline is now at a point of 'drone saturation.' Now, within 15km of the front line, vehicle movement is difficult to impossible. Infantry soldiers must march to their positions for 10-15km. When armoured vehicles and artillery are deployed, these can be subject to up to 40 attacks per platform per day.

Ukraine has invested in decoys and deception activities, and every HQ is now buried deep underground. The re-birth of modern deception is an important lesson from Ukraine, albeit an old one re-learned.

https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/reports/the-future-of-deception-in-war/

The question however is whether this saturated environment, which has built up over three and half years, is possible elsewhere? In non-contiguous theatres like the Pacific, it might be difficult to achieve this level of saturation, at least in a short period of time. This offers opportunities, but also may see ISR gaps for an adversary to exploit.

Despite this saturated drone environment, infantry is more important than ever to seize and hold ground. An indication of this is that while every Ukrainian brigade has 1-2 drone battalions, they all retain 3-5 infantry battalions as well. Drones are not replacing soldiers but extending and complementing their capabilities.

Really good stuff at the links and rest of tweet thread

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Posted

I saw a post here, or a post linked to a post here, that had an interview w/ Konstantin Samoilov from Inside Russia. I couldn't find it again, so I reposted it. I know others have posted Konstantin's opinions here, so I listened to this.

This is a very informative podcast. It's long, 68 minutes, something good to have playing in the background while you're doing other things. But listen to, it's well worth the time, or just read the rest of this post, 2-3 minutes tops.

(Re: the 2nd Interview in the post regarding Pokrovsk, I haven't listened to it yet., but I think I disagree w/ Pokrovsk importance. More later.)

"Putin never planned for a long war. The invasion was meant to last a few days. Ukraine was the red line. That’s what Russian policymakers had warned the U.S. about for years.

The idea was to send troops in, topple the government, draw the line, and leave. But that plan failed. Instead of a quick operation, Putin got stuck in a war he can’t win, one that has drained his military and isolated Russia from the world.

Power grids exploding. Soldiers unpaid. Cities running on generators.
Putin says Russia’s economy is untouchable. Konstantin from Inside Russia says that’s a lie.

He lived it, and what he describes sounds less like strength and more like survival on borrowed time.

We cover:

•⁠  ⁠Why Western sanctions are finally cutting off the oxygen
•⁠  ⁠How oil giants like Rosneft and Lukoil are scrambling for cash
•⁠  ⁠What life looks like when prices rise and supplies vanish overnight
•⁠  ⁠Why Russia’s best engineers and developers are leaving faster than they can be replaced
•⁠  ⁠And how one wrong move could send the entire system crashing

Konstantin says Russia’s economy isn’t dying quietly.
It’s bleeding out in real time, and Putin can’t stop it.

02:02 – “Moscow is not Russia,” wealth versus decay beyond the capital
03:55 – From wild 90s freedom to Putin’s tightening grip
05:47 – The social contract: stay quiet and live comfortably
07:09 – The invasion ends that contract overnight
07:20 – The economic panic as companies flee
08:30 – Competing narratives: collapse or resilience
09:17 – How Russia stumbled into a war it did not plan for
10:50 – Shock and chaos among Russian officials
12:55 – Propaganda scrambles to invent justifications
14:30 – The instant exodus of Western companies
16:30 – Ikea, Apple, McDonald’s, and the first wave of panic
17:28 – Russia forbids dollar withdrawals to stop the run
18:40 – How Putin’s “war economy” kept the system alive
19:16 – Oil prices surge, saving Russia for two years
20:22 – Who blew up Nord Stream and who benefited most
21:04 – Why the U.S. gained as Europe lost Russian gas
22:19 – Decades of cheap energy end overnight
23:28 – How Russia gave Europe’s market to America
24:11 – The self-inflicted wound that wrecked Gazprom’s future
25:25 – The economic unraveling begins
26:25 – The perfect storm of sanctions, exodus, and brain drain
28:05 – Millions leave, the professionals among them
29:10 – War spending drains the “savings account”
30:12 – Putin’s reserves are drying up
31:48 – GDP myths and fake data inside Russia
32:25 – The illusion of growth built on war production
33:44 – Military factories slow and layoffs begin
35:03 – “The party’s over,” Russia hits zero growth
35:45 – Why Putin still refuses to end the war
37:29 – The Titanic analogy: lights on, hull already flooded
40:00 – Blackouts, shortages, and the slow collapse
42:00 – Siemens leaves, turbines fail, power plants decay
43:12 – Why China cannot replace Western tech
44:40 – The lagging effect of sanctions now hitting home
45:10 – Putin escalates war as protests begin to spread
46:50 – Early sparks of unrest across Russian cities
47:55 – Prices soar, infrastructure breaks down
49:01 – Fear inside Putin’s own circle grows
50:36 – Why he cannot stop the war without losing power
52:05 – The danger of returning soldiers and shrinking spoils
52:58 – Why the “territory win” is a poisoned prize
54:30 – Putin’s miscalculation as NATO grows stronger
56:20 – Mario challenges NATO’s role and the red line argument
57:55 – Konstantin’s rebuttal: “Diplomacy, not invasion”
59:03 – The myth of NATO encirclement
01:01:46 – How Putin turned NATO from partner to enemy for politics
01:03:02 – Why he really invaded Ukraine: falling ratings and stagnation
01:05:33 – The plan for a quick regime change gone wrong
01:06:52 – “He wanted control, not blood,” but the war trapped him
01:07:29 – Mario proposes future debates with data-driven experts"

image.png

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Posted
1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:


https://mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-dispatch-5-ukraines-new-directorate

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/contributors/articles/mick-ryan
 

A key observation is that the frontline is now at a point of 'drone saturation.' Now, within 15km of the front line, vehicle movement is difficult to impossible. Infantry soldiers must march to their positions for 10-15km. When armoured vehicles and artillery are deployed, these can be subject to up to 40 attacks per platform per day.

Ukraine has invested in decoys and deception activities, and every HQ is now buried deep underground. The re-birth of modern deception is an important lesson from Ukraine, albeit an old one re-learned.

https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/reports/the-future-of-deception-in-war/

The question however is whether this saturated environment, which has built up over three and half years, is possible elsewhere? In non-contiguous theatres like the Pacific, it might be difficult to achieve this level of saturation, at least in a short period of time. This offers opportunities, but also may see ISR gaps for an adversary to exploit.

Despite this saturated drone environment, infantry is more important than ever to seize and hold ground. An indication of this is that while every Ukrainian brigade has 1-2 drone battalions, they all retain 3-5 infantry battalions as well. Drones are not replacing soldiers but extending and complementing their capabilities.

Really good stuff at the links and rest of tweet thread

WW 1.1

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

"Orban said the only ones supporting peace in the Ukraine situation are “the United States and little Hungary in Europe.”

 

21d3d920-90be-46d4-b608-b59d22a19373_tex

I mean, in this instance, Trump isn't technically wrong. It all depends on who specifically one is referring to when using "Russians" and how one define the word "want". 

-edit please note sarcasm tags prior to forcing on a maga hat on my head.

Edited by BurntEyes
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Parliament said:

WW 1.1

Eh.. I would personally align the tech advances closer to rockets, radar and jet engines of WWII. All of them critical but never a replacement for men with guns. (A-bomb was the biggest tech leap but I'm addressing land acquisitions and those don't work so well in that pursuit) The battlefield will continue to evolve even past what we are now seeing with drones and missles into mechanized artillery/heavy weapons to name just one but those need materials and maintenance to function. The core of war always has been and always will be supply lines and even with technology the capability to run them and keep them running will require humans for the foreseeable future. 

Edited by BurntEyes
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