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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

What gets me is how they couch -- or fail to couch -- risk.

...

We need a fucking achievable goal.  Otherwise, people give up, and/or just fight with each other.  Tell the "muh freedoms I get to do what I want!" crowd to fuck off.  Tell the "how dare you let one person be at risk of catching COVID!" crowd to fuck off.  Then craft a sane, balanced approach and tell folks that's how it's gonna be.

Agreed.  

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Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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20 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

What gets me is how they couch -- or fail to couch -- risk.

As I've said here before, some statements and understanding EARLY about balancing risks, and the level of acceptable risk, would have been REALLY helpful.  And we got it from nobody.  I would have been thrilled had some significant leadership said early on that what makes this particular virus a special problem we have to deal with is that it spreads very easily, and has a higher rate of serious illness and death than comparable illnesses, so that it results in us having way too many people seriously ill and hospitalized, as well as dying.  Our goal is to attack this illness with a combination of public health measures (like masks and testing and tracing), developing therapeutics to reduce the severity of the illness when it is contracted, and ultimately, developing vaccines which reduce the frequency and severity of the illness, so that we can turn "deadly and very virulent" COVID into "not more deadly and virulent than other respiratory viruses we have learned to live with, like the seasonal flu."  When we get to that point, then we will have won this battle.  We will likely have to continue to work to make it even less common, and less serious, but that is the work we do in the next phase.  Be patient, and work with us all together, and we can get to that point.

We didn't get it from anywhere.  Instead, we got stupid extremes of risk assessment pushed for myriad reasons -- emotions, irrationality, politics, etc.  The two dominant "risk" themes were 1) "I can do what I want, and judge my own risks, so let me do whatever with no restrictions" (which is asinine because it utterly fails to account for the fact that when you are dealing with a virus, YOUR risk imposes risk on OTHERS), and 2) "any risk is too much!  One death is one death too many!" (which is asinine because it sets an unachievable goal, and condemns us to living in a "state of war" for what will likely be a decade).  Neither one includes any real balancing of public health needs, economic needs and effects, emotional health and safety, etc.  That balanced approach -- or at least any clear and controlling message on it -- has been non-existent.  It fucking blows me away, and makes me pretty ragey.  At everyone.  I've made no secret of the fact that I thought the Trump admin screwed the pooch a hundred different ways.  And while I'm pleased with the logistical and focused approach of the Biden admin in the vaccine rollout...I find the admin's lack of good and hopeful messaging very frustrating.

We need a fucking achievable goal.  Otherwise, people give up, and/or just fight with each other.  Tell the "muh freedoms I get to do what I want!" crowd to fuck off.  Tell the "how dare you let one person be at risk of catching COVID!" crowd to fuck off.  Then craft a sane, balanced approach and tell folks that's how it's gonna be.

100%. Weaponizing public health is a terrible strategy. A binary approach to complexity is a terrible strategy. What frustrated me was the ever changing goalposts, mixed messages, and the subsequent extreme reactions on both sides (if you will, but there really should not be a side on things like this). Looking at the data, one was able to observe pretty obvious trends that should have been the basis of the strategy. There were myriad mistakes to go around. 

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3 minutes ago, Kyle said:

100%. Weaponizing public health is a terrible strategy. A binary approach to complexity is a terrible strategy. What frustrated me was the ever changing goalposts, mixed messages, and the subsequent extreme reactions on both sides (if you will, but there really should not be a side on things like this). Looking at the data, one was able to observe pretty obvious trends that should have been the basis of the strategy. There were myriad mistakes to go around. 

Don't disagree.  This is where we will find much disagreement though -- this is why you need clear and decisive leadership at the top, as well as a system that allows for some autonomy as you move down the chain to deal with local conditions.

Analogously, it should be a like a good general and his entire chain of command downstream.  A good general comes up with a clear, well-communicated overall strategy and goal.  He even comes up with big picture elements of how to achieve that goal (e.g., aerial bombardment followed by paratroopers AND an amphibious landing).  And then.....he gives a good bit of autonomy to individual commanders on the ground to deal with varying situations, all with the primary goal in mind (e.g., to establish a beachhead from which to launch a prolonged assault to force Germany's surrender).  Some officers will find their situation to be a cakewalk, and they can get troops 20 miles inland to set up a secure position to defend.  Others will be fucked from the get go, missing the landing zones and whatnot, and they'll have to improvise.  But if everyone is on board with the SAME GENERAL PLAN AND GOAL, it works.

Again, it's BALANCE.  Strong and decisive leadership at the top, but not micromanaging every detail -- grant autonomy to your officers, who in turn grant some autonomy to their sergeants -- that gets shit done.

Our system failed for sure - I think we see flaws that would be problems regardless of who is in leadership.  But also, many of our individual leaders did, including the most important ones.  And knowing that, now is the time to correct that (actually, starting January 21st was the time to start), and we really haven't done that yet.  And maybe the eggs are so scrambled that they can't be unscrambled.  But we should still fucking try.

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39 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

While the number people who literally don't want it to end are infinitesimal, the number of decision makers(politicians, health officials) who have literally ZERO appetite for risk and the people affected by those decisions is a huge percentage of the population.

You're a Texan, correct? If so, the political and public health decision makers that primarily affect you are at the state and local level, and the only restrictions I'm aware of here are a few local governments require mask wearing in public places or in schools.

Further, federal restrictions - so far as I know - only apply to federally owned land/buildings, mask mandates for air travel, and requirements for Covid testing on international travelers upon arrival. Am I missing anything else aside from what private businesses might do? Because, right now, everything appears to be only general guidance and advice from the CDC that state and local officials can take or leave.

I honestly do not foresee any sort of federally mandated Covid "passport" for Americans in our future other than possibly for air travel, but I think the push-back would be severe. Hopefully, it never comes to that.

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1 hour ago, bolverk said:

Do you mind identifying those individuals who do not want the pandemic to end?

From people who have benefited financially or politically to people like my aunt who treat this as a new religion or a reverse Qanon. Not sure what she will do if this ends or things go 100% back to normal. She is having the time of her life. Being able to yell at children & their parents for not social distancing at the park is her Superbowl.

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7 minutes ago, lmao said:

Being able to yell at children & their parents for not social distancing at the park is her Superbowl.

Sorry, I LOL'd.

 

Seen more than a few of these over the last year.  Miserable fucks.

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8 minutes ago, lmao said:

From people who have benefited financially or politically to people like my aunt who treat this as a new religion or a reverse Qanon. Not sure what she will do if this ends or things go 100% back to normal. She is having the time of her life. Being able to yell at children & their parents for not social distancing at the park is her Superbowl.

Oh god, what the fuck is "A reverse Qanon"?  What other horrors await us in 2021?  Is it like a self-aware Karen kind of situation or?  

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29 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Don't disagree.  This is where we will find much disagreement though -- this is why you need clear and decisive leadership at the top, as well as a system that allows for some autonomy as you move down the chain to deal with local conditions.

Analogously, it should be a like a good general and his entire chain of command downstream.  A good general comes up with a clear, well-communicated overall strategy and goal.  He even comes up with big picture elements of how to achieve that goal (e.g., aerial bombardment followed by paratroopers AND an amphibious landing).  And then.....he gives a good bit of autonomy to individual commanders on the ground to deal with varying situations, all with the primary goal in mind (e.g., to establish a beachhead from which to launch a prolonged assault to force Germany's surrender).  Some officers will find their situation to be a cakewalk, and they can get troops 20 miles inland to set up a secure position to defend.  Others will be fucked from the get go, missing the landing zones and whatnot, and they'll have to improvise.  But if everyone is on board with the SAME GENERAL PLAN AND GOAL, it works.

Again, it's BALANCE.  Strong and decisive leadership at the top, but not micromanaging every detail -- grant autonomy to your officers, who in turn grant some autonomy to their sergeants -- that gets shit done.

Our system failed for sure - I think we see flaws that would be problems regardless of who is in leadership.  But also, many of our individual leaders did, including the most important ones.  And knowing that, now is the time to correct that (actually, starting January 21st was the time to start), and we really haven't done that yet.  And maybe the eggs are so scrambled that they can't be unscrambled.  But we should still fucking try.

I agree, and I know you will disagree with the following; but I think Trump both not only did a poor job but also would never have been able to do an effective job. The early, initial call to limit travel to/from China as well as the above-noted stupid histrionics around hydroxychloroquine. Unfortunately, our national discussion focused on the horrors of using the term "Wuhan Virus" (the accepted convention) and the simultaneously denial of its severity and encouraging people to attend events in Chinatown. Again, that's not to excuse Trump's missteps, but I have no evidence to believe his clear and decisive leadership would have been met with anything but dismissal and derision. Of course, it does not help that he's a crazy man-child has the maturity of an elementary school bully.

Unfortunately, the Biden administration much better other than saying "wear a mask" and "shots" a lot more. And IMHO Fauci is just terrible. He's a big part of the problem with his mixed messages and love of the spotlight. Hard to take a "public health expert" seriously when he sits for covers of entertainment magazines.

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8 minutes ago, lmao said:

From people who have benefited financially or politically to people like my aunt who treat this as a new religion or a reverse Qanon. Not sure what she will do if this ends or things go 100% back to normal. She is having the time of her life. Being able to yell at children & their parents for not social distancing at the park is her Superbowl.

Corporations benefitted from this tremendously.  The social media giants are loving every aspect of this.  They thrive on discord and animosity.  Everyone cooped up losing their shit on their sites if pure gold. Their shares are SOARING right now.  Apple, Google, Twatter, FB, etc.  Profitability has never been higher.  

Then you have ZOOM, all the streaming services, etc.

And the retailers?  Amazon, all the other big box stores & chains - they (being of course "critical") are crushing it.  Much of their competition has been regulated out of existence at the federal, state, and local levels.  Tens of thousands of smaller business will never return.  McDonalds and Starbucks...they're doing great. 

Not saying they are intentionally driving policy and public opinions to stay locked down, but you have to wonder (off the record) that they are not shedding any tears the longer this draws out.  This is a further consolidation of power among a select few that wield more and more influence.  Many are now as "essential" as the banks were back in '07-08 and have conveniently aligned their interests with the interests of the federal government that more and more protects them.

This may well turn out to be the single biggest power grab by public companies in the history of this country.  

 

 

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6 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Corporations benefitted from this tremendously.  The social media giants are loving every aspect of this.  They thrive on discord and animosity.  Everyone cooped up losing their shit on their sites if pure gold. Their shares are SOARING right now.  Apple, Google, Twatter, FB, etc.  Profitability has never been higher.  

Then you have ZOOM, all the streaming services, etc.

And the retailers?  Amazon, all the other big box stores & chains - they (being of course "critical") are crushing it.  Much of their competition has been regulated out of existence at the federal, state, and local levels.  Tens of thousands of smaller business will never return.  McDonalds and Starbucks...they're doing great. 

Not saying they are intentionally driving policy and public opinions to stay locked down, but you have to wonder (off the record) that they are not shedding any tears the longer this draws out.  This is a further consolidation of power among a select few that wield more and more influence.  Many are now as "essential" as the banks were back in '07-08 and have conveniently aligned their interests with the interests of the federal government that more and more protects them.

This may well turn out to be the single biggest power grab by public companies in the history of this country.  

It's not a coincidence that my biggest pro-lockdown friend gets his money from Netflix.

Lockdown + $15 minimum wage would be the final destruction of small businesses big corporations want.

Edited by Kyle
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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Our system failed for sure - I think we see flaws that would be problems regardless of who is in leadership.  But also, many of our individual leaders did, including the most important ones.  And knowing that, now is the time to correct that (actually, starting January 21st was the time to start), and we really haven't done that yet.  And maybe the eggs are so scrambled that they can't be unscrambled.  But we should still fucking try.

Probably will never happen, but I hope in a few years we can take an honest look at the short/long effects and Monday Morning QB the hell out of every side of it.   If this happens again, I hope we have a better plan.  I hope one side can realize science isn't bad and the other side can realize than science is only a piece of the puzzle, not the driver in every decision.

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WHO report released today.  They dismiss lab accident as source, but saw one detail that I don't think we've ever seen before. Timing pretty interesting. 

Arguments in favour Although rare, laboratory accidents do happen, and different laboratories around the world are working with bat CoVs. When working in particular with virus cultures, but also with animal inoculations or clinical samples, humans could become infected in laboratories with limited biosafety, poor laboratory management practice, or following negligence. The closest known CoV RaTG13 strain (96.2%) to SARS-CoV-2 detected in bat anal swabs have been sequenced at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The Wuhan CDC laboratory moved on 2nd December 2019 to a new location near the Huanan market. Such moves can be disruptive for the operations of any laboratory.

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1 minute ago, Don Johnson said:

Probably will never happen, but I hope in a few years we can take an honest look at the short/long effects and Monday Morning QB the hell out of every side of it.   If this happens again, I hope we have a better plan.  I hope one side can realize science isn't bad and the other side can realize than science is only a piece of the puzzle, not the driver in every decision.

A post-mortem of how you handled ANY challenging situation is an absolutely smart management move.  It helps you figure out what worked and what didn't, so you can be better prepared for the next one.

Absolutely no fucking way that happens on a gov't level.  It will be two competing reports with two completely different political agendas driving the bus.  On the other hand, a private sector study of the same thing -- I smell a comprehensive university project -- could end up being very useful to us.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

WHO report released today.  They dismiss lab accident as source, but saw one detail that I don't think we've ever seen before. Timing pretty interesting. 

Arguments in favour Although rare, laboratory accidents do happen, and different laboratories around the world are working with bat CoVs. When working in particular with virus cultures, but also with animal inoculations or clinical samples, humans could become infected in laboratories with limited biosafety, poor laboratory management practice, or following negligence. The closest known CoV RaTG13 strain (96.2%) to SARS-CoV-2 detected in bat anal swabs have been sequenced at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The Wuhan CDC laboratory moved on 2nd December 2019 to a new location near the Huanan market. Such moves can be disruptive for the operations of any laboratory.

Dude.  You bolded the wrong thing.  I fixed it for you.

There's some dude in China whose job is to jam sticks up bat asses.  Now THAT makes for a credible theory: "no longer able to take the awful life of another day jamming sticks up bat asses, Mr. Lee flipped the fuck out and carried a jar full of virus infected samples out into the street and threw them at people, cackling maniacally." 

Edited by Brisketexan
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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Dude.  You bolded the wrong thing.

There's some dude in China whose job is to jam sticks up bat asses.  Now THAT makes for a credible theory: "no longer able to take the awful life of another day jamming sticks up bat asses, Mr. Lee flipped the fuck out and carried a jar full of virus infected samples out into the street and threw them at people, cackling maniacally." 

NowThis spotted hanging around outside Wuhan lab.

 

bat.jpg

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Dude.  You bolded the wrong thing.  I fixed it for you.

There's some dude in China whose job is to jam sticks up bat asses.  Now THAT makes for a credible theory: "no longer able to take the awful life of another day jamming sticks up bat asses, Mr. Lee flipped the fuck out and carried a jar full of virus infected samples out into the street and threw them at people, cackling maniacally." 

Try inseminating a cow....manually......cry me a f'ing river bat ass stick lady.  

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8 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Try inseminating a cow....manually......cry me a f'ing river bat ass stick lady.  

Um, is that going on right now?  

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3 hours ago, Don Johnson said:

Probably will never happen, but I hope in a few years we can take an honest look at the short/long effects and Monday Morning QB the hell out of every side of it.   If this happens again, I hope we have a better plan.  I hope one side can realize science isn't bad and the other side can realize than science is only a piece of the puzzle, not the driver in every decision.

I'll take a shit on the moon before anyone in government holds themselves accountable.

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30 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2021/03/30/florida-is-undercounting-covid-19-deaths-per-new-report

 

I know we're all shocked. If you account for their fraud, they jump from 27th in deaths per capita to 6th.

 

but muh florida

The opening line:

Quote

It probably won't surprise anyone who has had to live through the state's lackadaisical response to the ongoing global pandemic,

Yeah, that seems like an honest piece of journalism.

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9 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

The opening line:

Yeah, that seems like an honest piece of journalism.

 

Well, they have to put things like that in there to engage people who they know won't take the time to read the underlying study.

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1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Anyone trying to model 2020 based on prior data is a fool's errand. It was a black swan year. Anyone who knows anything about statistical analysis throws out the outliers. 

I know just a little bit about statistical analysis. I'll play. What are the outliers that you speak of?

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1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

I know just a little bit about statistical analysis. I'll play. What are the outliers that you speak of?

You've made up your mind, Bradin. Florida Bad. NY Good. I'm not wasting my time debating you.

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55 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2021/03/30/florida-is-undercounting-covid-19-deaths-per-new-report

 

I know we're all shocked. If you account for their fraud, they jump from 27th in deaths per capita to 6th.

 

but muh florida

Excess death in the US has consistently out-paced reported covid related deaths. There's no way Florida is alone in under counting. Get the excess death data from every state before jumping to lazy conclusions, Brad.

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9 minutes ago, B00M said:

Excess death in the US has consistently out-paced reported covid related deaths. There's no way Florida is alone in under counting. Get the excess death data from every state before jumping to lazy conclusions, Brad.

THAT, I agree with.  If you are going to use a methodology to come up with comparisons, then you need to use the same methodology on all the comparator numbers.

I suspect that we'll see that the number of excess deaths in 2020 is materially higher than just the COVID deaths.  That alone won't tell us that COVID deaths were undercounted, but it's a good indicator.  If we come up with other types of death that we hypothesize may have been exacerbated by the overall situation (say, suicides, even deaths by malnutrition/starvation), and count those, and those are also materially above norms, then those likely cover some of the excess deaths that are not COVID deaths.  If, however, those are still around the normal range, then we're getting closer to a supportable conclusion that there are significant uncounted COVID deaths.  

Like most similar things, we won't really be able to sort through reliable data and make reliable conclusions until the dust settles.  And we remain in the dust storm, for the time being.

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, B00M said:

Excess death in the US has consistently out-paced reported covid related deaths. There's no way Florida is alone in under counting. Get the excess death data from every state before jumping to lazy conclusions, Brad.

 

It's not my job to do your research for you. Literally on the first page of google if you're actually interested (you're not).

 

I presume the authors of the study started with Florida because they've blatantly and unashamedly submitted fraudulent numbers. But yeah, you're absolutely right, there's definitely undercounting going on elsewhere. It's almost all concentrated in very red rural areas. So yeah, maybe Florida ends up #10 or so after a bunch of other SEC states who are also cooking their books jump above it. Cool. Go Florida!

 

image.png.6394f23bd23009edecfdca8165285cae.png

 

image.png.d94c9454f061203cf6d8983313246a6f.png

image.png.05922e37aa152f77eed2f04ff6855785.png

 

 

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

THAT, I agree with.  If you are going to use a methodology to come up with comparisons, then you need to use the same methodology on all the comparator numbers.

I suspect that we'll see that the number of excess deaths in 2020 is materially higher than just the COVID deaths.  That alone won't tell us that COVID deaths were undercounted, but it's a good indicator.  If we come up with other types of death that we hypothesize may have been exacerbated by the overall situation (say, suicides, even deaths by malnutrition/starvation), and count those, and those are also materially above norms, then those likely cover some of the excess deaths that are not COVID deaths.  If, however, those are still around the normal range, then we're getting closer to a supportable conclusion that there are significant uncounted COVID deaths.  

Like most similar things, we won't really be able to sort through reliable data and make reliable conclusions until the dust settles.  And we remain in the dust storm, for the time being.

Yep. 
my basic point is I will start putting stock in the numbers 3 or 4 or 5 years down the road when economists get together and do carefully thought out surveys of a what actually happened. Until then we are in the fog of war imo, where information is often shitty. 

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2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

When you are a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

Agreed, which is why you've avoided addressing the actual point. None of the data supports your partisan view of the pandemic so let's just distract, deflect, then retreat when called out.

Many of us who aren't approaching every piece of information about the pandemic from a partisan hack corner have criticized Cuomo and NY harshly for their poor decisions and obfuscation. Of course I don't expect any of the "but muh florida" folks to do the same, but the data is there nonetheless. You know. You won't admit it, but you know.

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1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yep. 
my basic point is I will start putting stock in the numbers 3 or 4 or 5 years down the road when economists get together and do carefully thought out surveys of a what actually happened. Until then we are in the fog of war imo, where information is often shitty. 

We won't know precise numbers for awhile, if ever. But we know a few things, without any doubt. Florida is cooking their books. NY is cooking their books. The majority of the south and very rural areas are cooking their books and fraudulently underreporting their Covid numbers. There is more than enough information out there to definitively draw those conclusions. 

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Bradin, I think the other posters on this page have done a much better job explaining it than I have. We don't know what we don't know. Anyone saying THESE are the correct numbers and THIS is what can be concluded at this point is doing it for political reasons. 

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2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

We won't know precise numbers for awhile, if ever. But we know a few things, without any doubt. Florida is cooking their books. NY is cooking their books. The majority of the south and very rural areas are cooking their books and fraudulently underreporting their Covid numbers. There is more than enough information out there to definitively draw those conclusions. 

Whenever you use numbers to quantity something it’s good to know that they are accurate. I don’t know how you draw any conclusions without definitive numbers. 
there’s a reason why no serious history is attempted until at least 30-50 years have passed. 
things need to sort out. That’s not to say we need 30 years for data on this- just that the fog of war needs to end. I don’t think it has. It’s possible everyone is lying about numbers. Or unaware of the truth. It’s possible some are willfully misleading and others are unintentionally a little bit wrong 

I will wait for the studies before I draw definite conclusions. I think my only real disagreement with your post is the idea of definitiveness at this time. 

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18 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

It's not my job to do your research for you. Literally on the first page of google if you're actually interested (you're not).

 

I presume the authors of the study started with Florida because they've blatantly and unashamedly submitted fraudulent numbers. But yeah, you're absolutely right, there's definitely undercounting going on elsewhere. It's almost all concentrated in very red rural areas. So yeah, maybe Florida ends up #10 or so after a bunch of other SEC states who are also cooking their books jump above it. Cool. Go Florida!

 

image.png.6394f23bd23009edecfdca8165285cae.png

 

image.png.d94c9454f061203cf6d8983313246a6f.png

image.png.05922e37aa152f77eed2f04ff6855785.png

 

 

 

 

 

Don't be so petulant, Brad. You very well may be right, but you were lazy with the stats. If it's so easy to show where Florida ranks in excess deaths, please do. I'm on your side here and you're just lashing out at everyone.

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2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Bradin, I think the other posters on this page have done a much better job explaining it than I have. We don't know what we don't know. Anyone saying THESE are the correct numbers and THIS is what can be concluded at this point is doing it for political reasons. 

LMAO.

There are thousands of posts on this thread talking about how masks and restrictions don't work because the numbers show that red states and no-restriction states are doing just great. You were all over that weren't you. But now that the data is completely predictably showing that was all bullshit, you don't like the numbers?

Once again, and let me try to dumb this down because stats clearly aren't your forte, we won't know exact numbers or exactly where Florida "ranks" for awhile. But we can, with certainty, conclude that they are underreporting numbers. As are NY and other southern red states. 

The numbers from Florida and other states are so far outside of a normal confidence interval when compared to excess deaths that there is literally no way to conclude anything other than Covid deaths are being underreported. There is no "we don't know". We know. 

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Now that the US is doing a reasonably OK job of vaccinating our own people, I'm thinking about the developing world. How's it look for them? Are we funding efforts to get them vaxed or nah? Are they on their own, good luck? Seems I haven't read much about it.

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