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737 down in Iran


Gil Bang

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7 minutes ago, Captainant said:

It was first put into the public knowledge by a Russian security firm Kaspersky, who are some of the best in the world in security research. And it only became known to them because whoever (us and israel) was controlling stuxnet modified the spreading mechanism to be more aggressive and it spread exactly like how a virus does. 

If you want to learn more, there's a great Darknet Diaries podcast episode on it from a technical and cyberwarfare perspective

I remember seeing an article that implied pretty heavily that the American Intelligence guys got more and more pissed off at Israel increasing the spreading mechanism.  

The damn thing was working just fine, causing issues with Iran, but Israel wanted the problem solved sooner rather than later.

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2 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

I’m surprised how long they were able to stay airborne after being hit. You can tell they really tried to turn it around and land that plane.

This. So SAMs explode near the target hoping to send shrapnel into the plane to damage it. This is a big ass slow moving plane compared to faster, smaller agile fighter jets. It took two missiles to bring it down. In addition it was a long as time before we saw it coming down. I guess when we saw the giant fire ball, the plan was fully engulfed in flames? Was it still intact or broken up? Do SAMs always work so damn slowly?

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13 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

This. So SAMs explode near the target hoping to send shrapnel into the plane to damage it. This is a big ass slow moving plane compared to faster, smaller agile fighter jets. It took two missiles to bring it down. In addition it was a long as time before we saw it coming down. I guess when we saw the giant fire ball, the plan was fully engulfed in flames? Was it still intact or broken up? Do SAMs always work so damn slowly?

I'm no pilot but I would imagine the plane's slower airspeed and low altitude at the time had something to do with it staying intact for longer. By comparison the Malaysian plane over Ukraine was at 33,000 ft doing 550+ mph. The loss of control at that speed and altitude after being hit by missile shrapnel caused the plane to disintegrate.

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58 minutes ago, smuggs said:

I'm no pilot but I would imagine the plane's slower airspeed and low altitude at the time had something to do with it staying intact for longer. By comparison the Malaysian plane over Ukraine was at 33,000 ft doing 550+ mph. The loss of control at that speed and altitude after being hit by missile shrapnel caused the plane to disintegrate.

also, 70 kg warhead with malaysia 17 vs 15 kg warhead here

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58 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

There was a longish delay between the first and second missiles. You have to think the airliner pilots were probably screaming at the tower about a missile try to shoot them out of the air. The SAM commander didn't hear that screaming before shooting off the second SAM?????????

I thought I read that there was no communication from the plane to ATC. 

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6 minutes ago, ConferenceRoom said:

I don't think it's hard to believe that, even if they identified their situation as a SAM attack, they would be busy trying to save the aircraft. Aviate, navigate, communicate after all. 

Yeah.  The pilots just heard a boom, shit started going haywire, and they tried to fly - that's almost certainly what happened.  In their minds, it could have been an onboard bomb, catastrophic engine or structural failure....which they don't much care about in the moment.  After the event, can I fly the bird and get it down safely?  That's the only operative question.

This isn't a fighter with a missile launch warning function, that sort of thing.  Your flying like normal, you hear a boom, then you're not flying like normal.  Those are your data points.

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57 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

There was a longish delay between the first and second missiles. You have to think the airliner pilots were probably screaming at the tower about a missile try to shoot them out of the air. The SAM commander didn't hear that screaming before shooting off the second SAM?????????

No idea how long it takes to fire those off, but I would assume they could be launched nearly simultaneously? The second one lights up 12 seconds after the 1st impact. I'm guessing they saw the first missile fail to destroy the target - and being under the assumption they were firing on a US military plane that could potentially fire back the longer it remained in the air somewhat intact - someone requested orders to fire again, and then the order was given. If that totally baseless guess is correct, then I can confidently make the further baseless claim that they're unaware of the capabilities (or lack thereof) of their weaponry. In other words, they are terrible. We should win convincingly. 

Also, interesting question about what the pilots could see. Do commercial airliners have systems capable of saying "hey, there's a fucking missile locked on to you" or would it be more like a blip on their screen moving really fast in their direction?

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18 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

I find that hard to believe. If I'm a pilot and a SAM missile blew up next to my plane trying to shoot it down, I'd be screaming on the headset to anyone that would listen.

Or the pilots were dead after the first impact.  Or the impacts shredded electrical/comms equipment or wiring.  

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I’m surprised how long they were able to stay airborne after being hit. You can tell they really tried to turn it around and land that plane.

Consciousness of impending death for that long will effect the damages. Far worse to be grabbing your loved one while everyone is screaming, knowing you will all likely die, than an instantaneous snuff out.
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1 hour ago, SquishMitten said:

No idea how long it takes to fire those off, but I would assume they could be launched nearly simultaneously? The second one lights up 12 seconds after the 1st impact. I'm guessing they saw the first missile fail to destroy the target - and being under the assumption they were firing on a US military plane that could potentially fire back the longer it remained in the air somewhat intact - someone requested orders to fire again, and then the order was given. If that totally baseless guess is correct, then I can confidently make the further baseless claim that they're unaware of the capabilities (or lack thereof) of their weaponry. In other words, they are terrible. We should win convincingly. 

Also, interesting question about what the pilots could see. Do commercial airliners have systems capable of saying "hey, there's a fucking missile locked on to you" or would it be more like a blip on their screen moving really fast in their direction?

None of the above.

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I cant find it anymore because there are like 200+ articles on google now, but I thought I remembered reading an article that based on the damage they think at least one of the SAMs exploded just under the cockpit.  entirely possible pilots were already dead, and/or all controls/electronics destroyed.   So either the pilots survived and had a completely dead stick, or they were both incapacitated and the rest of the folks in the plane knew they had a minute before they were going to die

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I obviously can't post classified info and I don't know the specifics of Iran either way, but some countries use "Two shot doctrine" meaning they're going to fire two missiles at it either way.  I can tell you there's no way they knew the extent of the damage after the first shot.

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On 1/15/2020 at 12:13 PM, Brisketexan said:

Yeah.  The pilots just heard a boom, shit started going haywire, and they tried to fly - that's almost certainly what happened.  In their minds, it could have been an onboard bomb, catastrophic engine or structural failure....which they don't much care about in the moment.  After the event, can I fly the bird and get it down safely?  That's the only operative question.

This isn't a fighter with a missile launch warning function, that sort of thing.  Your flying like normal, you hear a boom, then you're not flying like normal.  Those are your data points.

I guess it all depends on where, in proximity to the jet, the sumbitch detonated...

 

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15 hours ago, Assman said:

I obviously can't post classified info and I don't know the specifics of Iran either way, but some countries use "Two shot doctrine" meaning they're going to fire two missiles at it either way.  I can tell you there's no way they knew the extent of the damage after the first shot.

Any infantryman will tell you that anything worth shooting is worth shooting twice.

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On 1/15/2020 at 10:57 AM, crash_davis said:

There was a longish delay between the first and second missiles. You have to think the airliner pilots were probably screaming at the tower about a missile try to shoot them out of the air. The SAM commander didn't hear that screaming before shooting off the second SAM?????????

Hard to believe they were on the same frequencies or even using the same equipment.  The SAM guys were probably not tuned in to local air traffic control.

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