All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[Chewbacca 7612]

8 minutes ago, Orale said:

Do y'all know how commercial rates are faring? I have land in downtown SA and I'm exploring doing a smallish multi-family project on it (60 to 80 units). I'm just in the info gathering stage at this point so I haven't spoken with any lenders yet. I'm going to look into SBA lending to see if my project may be eligible. 

You'll need a construction loan that you then refinance into a perm loan, or you need a HUD loan (which is expensive as fuck and a huge PITA).  SBA won't lend on a 60-80 unit multifamily project that I know of, and you're too small for the Life Cos.

[UTPhil2006 3753]

And in true rollercoaster fashion, we're back down 10 basis points (good news for rates) already today back near Tuesday lows.  About 30 basis points difference from this time last Friday.  

[UTPhil2006 3753]

There is for sure going to be one less appraiser in Texas come Monday.  Holy shit what a scrumblefuck.

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

20 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

There is for sure going to be one less appraiser in Texas come Monday.  Holy shit what a scrumblefuck.

Wut ha happened?  Always like a good appraiser story. 

[Neonmoon 38126]

Do tell. We had one removed last month for not following basic guidelines.

Edited March 5, 2022 by Neonmoon

[UTPhil2006 3753]

To keep it somewhat brief since the borrower is a Shaggy guy..

Order appraisal 2/10 pay for rush for 2/21 ask where it is on 2/21 no answer, actually goes and does inspection 2/22, fine whatever just refund the rush fee we still have time to hit 3/8 close date.. no response til 3/1 on where the appraisal is, then says there aren't sufficient comps, seller and buyers agent supply more comps, we ask for at least a "prelim" number so that we can at least provide that info to all parties if we need to kill the deal if it's gonna come in 200k low, etc.. goes radio silent all week, we're hitting up the AMC daily they're giving us non answer answers because he's not responding, we're now 3 business days before close (mind you in this interim seller has expressed they will not extend financing addendum or move close date), still no response til 4pm yesterday afternoon.. when he outright cancels the appraisal (that he's already done) that we find out via automated email.  No call, no email, no explanation, never a number, nothing.  Needless to say the AE, AMC are getting an asschewing and that appraiser better just save everyone time and quit.

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

That’s not funny. That’s awful. 

[jimmyjazz 45055]

I need to become an appraiser.

[Neonmoon 38126]

4 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

To keep it somewhat brief since the borrower is a Shaggy guy..

Order appraisal 2/10 pay for rush for 2/21 ask where it is on 2/21 no answer, actually goes and does inspection 2/22, fine whatever just refund the rush fee we still have time to hit 3/8 close date.. no response til 3/1 on where the appraisal is, then says there aren't sufficient comps, seller and buyers agent supply more comps, we ask for at least a "prelim" number so that we can at least provide that info to all parties if we need to kill the deal if it's gonna come in 200k low, etc.. goes radio silent all week, we're hitting up the AMC daily they're giving us non answer answers because he's not responding, we're now 3 business days before close (mind you in this interim seller has expressed they will not extend financing addendum or move close date), still no response til 4pm yesterday afternoon.. when he outright cancels the appraisal (that he's already done) that we find out via automated email.  No call, no email, no explanation, never a number, nothing.  Needless to say the AE, AMC are getting an asschewing and that appraiser better just save everyone time and quit.

Holy fuck. 

Not only should that guy quit, that AMC needs to get its shit together 

[UTPhil2006 3753]

6 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I need to become an appraiser.

Shaggy Appraisers LLC needs to happen

[Muny_Tex 284]

^^^Saw the above chart referenced on ZeroHedge today. Sign of the times indeed..


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[KYHorn 16691]

How'd it go today, boys? I turn here for good news on down days.

[Esque 135]

@UTPhil2006

What are you seeing right now in terms of prime interest rates?  Think near 800 credit, large down payment, conventional loan.

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

Bad day in the market. MBS down 39. That’s a hair away from rates rising 1/8 of a point.  It good. 

[UT_OB1 2193]

Thought this might be a good place to ask:

What is the difference between a commercial and residential after the purchase (in Texas)?  I know there are different loans, but are there different permitting / legal restrictions.  And is there an easy place for the non lawyer to read up on it?

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

8 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Bad day in the market. MBS down 39. That’s a hair away from rates rising 1/8 of a point.  It good. 

Not good that should read. 

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

Down 33 basis points (MBS) so far today. That’s getting into down 75 or so basis points since the start of the week. That should be .15-.20 worse in interest rates. Since Friday afternoon. 
Good times. Fun stuff. 

[Gil Bang 25507]

I've had two buyers in the last month priced out of the market, combination of house prices and rates.  Furk. 

[UTPhil2006 3753]

17 hours ago, Esque said:

@UTPhil2006

What are you seeing right now in terms of prime interest rates?  Think near 800 credit, large down payment, conventional loan.

3.75-3.875 depending on the day 

[Neonmoon 38126]

4 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Down 33 basis points (MBS) so far today. That’s getting into down 75 or so basis points since the start of the week. That should be .15-.20 worse in interest rates. Since Friday afternoon. 
Good times. Fun stuff. 

MBS down again

(like South Austin's mother)

[UTPhil2006 3753]

50 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

MBS down again

(like South Austin's mother)

Yep pretty much back to where we started the falll last week at now.

[Dbeasy 14733]

I’ve still been struggling to understand the extreme limited supply of homes for sale in markets across the US. I don’t see under building for the last few years as a large enough factor to cause such a sudden and huge uptick. It wouldn’t be so uniform across the country in attractive markets.

I’d be interested to hear from Gil and other agents in the thread about a possible root cause I’m thinking may be happening.

Wall Street figured out way ahead of everyone else via their connections at the Fed that we are facing serious inflation for a long time. They somehow magically were able to pull together several multibillion dollar funds in a very short period of time way ahead of everyone else to buy single family properties all over the country, which they’ve obviously been doing for the last 24 months. 

Prices are going thru the roof because they are buying 25-35% of all homes for sale, leaving 1 of 3 or 1 of 4 legitimate homebuyers with no inventory. As a result they’ve bid up prices 2x in 24 months.  

Wall Street is effing us all. 

[Neonmoon 38126]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/08/business/better-mortgage-layoffs/index.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/08/business/better-mortgage-lender-layoffs.html

Better laying off 3,000 employees. That’s 1/3 of employees 

[atomheartbevo 88750]

Over on 35th Street, west of Shoal Creek (just past Kerbey Lane, and next to Olive and June), there used to be a Burger King there.

Somebody wanted to put in a 3-story office? building supposedly with an underground garage (which made no fucking sense, given the size of the lot), but neighborhood not happy because it'd be tall, and people would still park on the streets around it.  They did core samples, and there are rumors that they didn't like what came back, so the idea was scrapped. I do know the parking lot and the building itself were zoned separately/differently and that the owner(s) had filed for changes to develop as a whole.

Always, there is now a Wendy's trailer there in the parking lot, and I saw a small commercial van with a restaurant supply company logo on the side (I believe).

Anybody know anything?  I figured it would just be another medical office building given the location, but would kinda love some kind of fast food place (Austin Pizza moved out from across the street). Wendy's would not be my first pick, but it could probably do better than Burger King did.

Also, the Randall's building/lot seems to be up for lease - thought it was going to be a tear-down and turned into a large mixed-used project.

[TKthunder2 4958]

15 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I’ve still been struggling to understand the extreme limited supply of homes for sale in markets across the US. I don’t see under building for the last few years as a large enough factor to cause such a sudden and huge uptick. It wouldn’t be so uniform across the country in attractive markets.

I’d be interested to hear from Gil and other agents in the thread about a possible root cause I’m thinking may be happening.

Wall Street figured out way ahead of everyone else via their connections at the Fed that we are facing serious inflation for a long time. They somehow magically were able to pull together several multibillion dollar funds in a very short period of time way ahead of everyone else to buy single family properties all over the country, which they’ve obviously been doing for the last 24 months. 

Prices are going thru the roof because they are buying 25-35% of all homes for sale, leaving 1 of 3 or 1 of 4 legitimate homebuyers with no inventory. As a result they’ve bid up prices 2x in 24 months.  

Wall Street is effing us all. 

No expert, but international buyers have greatly expanded over the last decade.  My gut feel is that when the housing market crash in 2008 many across the globe saw US real estate as a great tactical investment since the US is a first world country with generally anti-socialist policies.  So if the shit ever hit the fan for the wealth in China or Russia, their US holdings would be a great way to shield their assets almost like insurance.

Once that started taking off I think Wall Street picked up on it too, but we’ve always had real estate funds so something else had to tip the scales.

That plus the housing shortage, Covid cabin fever and historically low loan rates really put the market into overdrive…or at least that’s my take.

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

38 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

No expert, but international buyers have greatly expanded over the last decade.  My gut feel is that when the housing market crash in 2008 many across the globe saw US real estate as a great tactical investment since the US is a first world country with generally anti-socialist policies.  So if the shit ever hit the fan for the wealth in China or Russia, their US holdings would be a great way to shield their assets almost like insurance.

Once that started taking off I think Wall Street picked up on it too, but we’ve always had real estate funds so something else had to tip the scales.

That plus the housing shortage, Covid cabin fever and historically low loan rates really put the market into overdrive…or at least that’s my take.

As with all things- I think your analysis is pretty generally correct- it's a lot of factors. I think you nailed lots of those factors with this analysis. Underbuilding is also a factor, as was mentioned in the OP you replied to.  Population growth (MIllenials coming of age plus immigration) come into play as well I'd say too.   

[Dbeasy 14733]

It’s just weird that all these factors suddenly hit right with Covid. 

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

27 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

It’s just weird that all these factors suddenly hit right with Covid. 

Straw that broke the camels back.  Also- COVID isn't a little thing in regards to demand I don't think- it's a big thing. Lots of people that were living in dense areas decided they wanted to get the fuck out.  Or- maybe they always wanted to GTFO but couldn't b/c of work- and now that they are working from home....

 

[Armybrat 40464]

My son just closed @$215,000 on  a 1/1 condo 670 sq/ft off 183 North next to the Balcones Country Club for my granddaughter. Other son will do the kitchen & bath remodel.

I can’t believe a tiny place like that is going for so much. I thought paying $23,500 for my first house (3/2/2, 1,325 sq/ft) in Windsor Hills 51 years ago was awful high.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Armybrat

[Dbeasy 14733]

2 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

My son just closed @$215,000 on  a 1/1 condo 670 sq/ft off 183 North next to the Balcones Country Club for my granddaughter. Other son will do the kitchen & bath remodel.

I can’t believe a tiny place like that is going for so much. I thought paying $23,500 for my first house (3/2/2, 1,325 sq/ft) in Windsor Hills 51 years ago was awful high.

My parent’s $45k home behind Reagan in Coronado Hills now would sell for $600k+, double the price of just 3 years ago 

[Armybrat 40464]

My kids all graduated Reagan. 
Coronado Hills was the hot new area 50+ years ago. 
The area was referred to as the “Golden Triangle”. 
NPC was the primary builder there and in our old ‘hood.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Armybrat

[atomheartbevo 88750]

4 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Straw that broke the camels back.  Also- COVID isn't a little thing in regards to demand I don't think- it's a big thing. Lots of people that were living in dense areas decided they wanted to get the fuck out.  Or- maybe they always wanted to GTFO but couldn't b/c of work- and now that they are working from home....

A lot of people with the money to buy decent homes are also the people with the jobs/financial situations that allows them move where they wanted to live, and not just where their jobs took them, and COVID was the final kick in the butt - I've had more than few friends in Austin who fell into that situation and decided they wanted to live in Colorado, New England, Florida, etc.  

Pre-COVID it was like "I'd love to live somewhere else, I'm tired of Austin/etc." and then COVID kicks in, upends a lot of businesses and proves the ability for workers to work remotely, etc.

[HRSchenker 2215]

I deeply regret not buying into my old Dallas neighborhood when I had the chance. 400k for a townhouse just didn't make sense. Now it's what I'm begging for lol 

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

40 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

A lot of people with the money to buy decent homes are also the people with the jobs/financial situations that allows them move where they wanted to live, and not just where their jobs took them, and COVID was the final kick in the butt - I've had more than few friends in Austin who fell into that situation and decided they wanted to live in Colorado, New England, Florida, etc.  

Pre-COVID it was like "I'd love to live somewhere else, I'm tired of Austin/etc." and then COVID kicks in, upends a lot of businesses and proves the ability for workers to work remotely, etc.

Both my cousins moved from Seattle to greater Austin area due to Covid.  Once they could work at home they said- the weather up here sucks- we are Dems but we think these people are fucking lunatics up here, our houses are worth a small fortune, even at the prices that we here in Texas think are absurd in Austin they see as a bit of a value from that market area.  Have another friend from Bay Area moving to Colorado. 

[Gil Bang 25507]

San Diego — 

House flippers could be taxed 25 percent of their profit under the California Speculation Act, a bill introduced by Assemblymember Chris Ward, D-San Diego.

Assembly Bill 1771 aims to discourage real estate speculation that Ward said drives up home prices as equity investors outbid individual home buyers.

“We’ve heard of people getting into their first home getting beat by cash offers” from investors, Ward said at a press conference Wednesday at the San Diego County Administration Building.

Those investors typically resell the properties soon afterward at inflated prices, stoking competition for limited housing and driving up market prices for comparable homes, he said.

 

ADVERTISING

The bill, introduced last week, would impose a 25 percent tax on the profits from a home resold within three years after it’s bought.

After the third year, that rate would drop to 20 percent, and decline each year afterward until it is eliminated after seven years.

 

BUSINESS

FOR SUBSCRIBERS

San Diego homebuilding at a 15-year high

March 9, 2022

Most California homeowners keep their property for 10 to 16 years, Ward stated, so it would not affect most people buying a home for personal use. Certain categories of buyers, such as first-time and military homeowners, would be exempt from the taxes.

 

 

Taxes collected from short-term sales would be distributed to cities, schools and affordable housing funds, Ward said.

The goal is to create a disincentive for equity investors, freeing up homes to people buying for personal use.

“When investors fall out of the buying pool, that will give regular home buyers a chance to buy a home,” Ward said.

Housing prices rose about 20 percent statewide in 2021, Ward said. In San Diego, they jumped 26 percent last year, earning the region the dubious distinction as the nation’s least affordable metro area, with housing prices outpacing income.

Meanwhile the share of homes purchased by investors instead of families has increased in recent years, the bill stated.

 

BUSINESS

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Cash sales of San Diego homes hit their highest level in 7 years

Dec. 30, 2021

First-time homeowner Trisha Cortez spoke during the press conference, describing her recent experience house-hunting in the San Diego area. A healthcare worker with good credit, she said she was easily able to secure a loan but the home search was a grueling process until she bought a condo in Talmadge.

“I regularly offered above asking prices, but cash buyers would swoop in and take the property,” she said. “I’ve been denied 33 times before getting a home.”

Meanwhile housing production is falling far behind demand, said University of San Diego Economics Professor Alan Gin. The region needs about 17,000 new homes per year, but over the past three years it has produced just about half that — 8,216 homes constructed in 2019; 9,472 built in 2020 and 9,358 in 2021, he said.

Other real estate experts said that’s the real issue. Despite efforts to curb real estate speculation, there will be no relief for home buyers until more housing is built, said Lori Pfeiler, CEO of the Building Industry Association of San Diego County.

“While we appreciate Chris’ objective, ultimately this is a supply issue,” Pfeiler said. “We don’t have enough homes for sale, inventory is low and anyone thinking of selling their home just won’t sell their home; they’ll figure out how to hold onto it.”

Pfeiler said lowering fees and reducing regulatory barriers to housing construction would be more effective at curbing prices.

Gin said that San Diego is such a desirable location that housing speculation would likely continue even with greater home production.

 

BUSINESS

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‘This is nuts’: San Diego home price continues to climb as inventory plunges

Feb. 17, 2022

Gary London, a real estate economist and senior principal with London Moeder Advisors, warned that while the bill may ease pressure on buyers, it would limit options for sellers. He said most institutional investors target mid-price housing rather than luxury homes, so the sellers most impacted would be middle income homeowners rather than the wealthy.

“I don’t like it, because it’s effectively an attack on the property rights of sellers,” he said.

Pfeiler also said the bill could inadvertently reduce geographic and economic mobility by restricting people from selling a home because of a job change or other economic necessity, she said.

“Chris is looking for bold ways to help us with the housing crisis, but on many, many fronts this will constrain supply and constrain people’s choices about what job they take and where they locate,” she said.

Ward said that the bill may be amended to exclude primary residences, so people buying homes for their own full-time use would not be taxed.

“We will continue to look for those buckets of people who should be exempted,” he said. “The intent of this bill is not to penalize everybody but to dissuade activity that is driving up prices for everybody.”

[UT_OB1 2193]

Jfc that’s stupid.  Run down pieces of shit don’t get bought by first time homebuyers and fixed up (most of the time). Thats just going to discourage people from fixing up those properties. 

[TKthunder2 4958]

Yep, and I thought the average person doesn’t stay in their home more than 5 years?  I mean if it’s to discourage buying, holding, and then straight up selling with no added improvements then I could get that, but flippers server a purpose.  They are going to ruin their home inventory for their middle class or the flipper will just start billing for their services making the profits non-existent/razor thin and thus pointless. “Damn, this is my 5th flip of the year and I still haven’t turned a profit, lucky for me I bill out at $500/hr as a designer/project manager so I can support my family.

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

Another shitty morning as we are already down 41 basis points (MBS- means rates getting worse) for the day.  That makes- I think- 125 or 130 on the week?  So, over 1/4 of a point worsening.  This is from yesterday, so keep in mind it doesn't count the 41 basis points worse today- so you are likely talking another 1/10th of a percent in interest rates.  Exactly a week ago today I posted the chart that shows average actual interest rates in the US and it had clawed back below 4.0% to 3.98.  Nope, not anymore.  Today's chart (from yesterday).  Tomorrow will be 1/10th worse if this keeps up.  

 

DAILY MORTGAGE RATES  (March 09, 2022) — Powered by OBMMI™

30-YR. CONFORMING

4.211% +0.029

30-YR. JUMBO

3.906% +0.064

30-YR. FHA

4.301% +0.037

30-YR. VA

3.971% +0.016

30-YR. USDA

4.193% +0.020

15-YR. CONFORMING

3.342% -0.010

V

[UTPhil2006 3753]

Inflation up to 40 year highs, and now we're officially back to the highs we had pared off the last couple weeks.

[MAUFRAIS 6538]

but flippers serve a purpose.

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

Rates were down below 4 (3.98) as national average last Wednesday I believe- now up almost 3/10's of a point in the last 6 work days.  Grrrrr.  Market more or less flat this morning (MBS down 7 basis points.  Remember- MBS down means rates up).  7 basis points isn't enough to matter or for anyone to notice. 

 

30-YR. CONFORMING

4.276% +0.065

30-YR. JUMBO

3.960% +0.054

30-YR. FHA

4.347% +0.046

30-YR. VA

3.984% +0.013

30-YR. USDA

4.202% +0.009

15-YR. CONFORMING

3.348% +0.006

[UTPhil2006 3753]

Yep flat Friday, before the probable rollercoaster again next week.  

[Neonmoon 38126]

The rate hike next week should already be priced in, but you never know what fuckery that will bring 

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

And after last weeks horrid week (Friday ended up down 24 basis points- remember- down is bad when you are talking mbs-that makes rates go up), we start this week down 41 on this Monday morning. I literally hate everything right now. 

[KYHorn 16691]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

And after last weeks horrid week (Friday ended up down 24 basis points- remember- down is bad when you are talking mbs-that makes rates go up), we start this week down 41 on this Monday morning. I literally hate everything right now. 

Any guess on what's causing this? My limited understanding is that uncertainty in the market (wars, for example) usually leads to higher MBS? We barely saw a blip.

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

3 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Any guess on what's causing this? My limited understanding is that uncertainty in the market (wars, for example) usually leads to higher MBS? We barely saw a blip.

Typically that would be the case- bad news leads to a flight to quality in the form of 10 year treasury (which is why some people watch that as a proxy for interest rates) along with MBS.  

From my newsletter as to why that's not working this time- "No flight to quality here, as with rising commodity inflation getting more intense, combined with sticky prices it's the equivalent of jumping into quicksand right now" or something like that- that's pretty close on the quote but it's not exact.  So, yeah, fun times. Apparently best to bury your money in a coffee can in the back yard- that way you can't lose it.  Except losing it to inflation- but at least that means it will take a couple months at this rate before your dollar is value less.  

I'm mostly joking and engaging in a little gallows humor (inventory in February was record low while prices are going way up- applications are down and those that come in seemingly have to pray to hit their number for a house), but damn if I know what the play is right now.  I think it's really likely we are going to see a recession (10 year and 2 year are 27 bips apart, probably fixing to go inverse- which signals a recession like 11 times out of 10) and you would hope that would put the brakes on some of this inflation- but that obviously has a real problem itself as well- and the scary thought is a recession without getting inflation under control.  So, good times.  

[Neonmoon 38126]

Inventory is so low, when I pre-approve people below 400K, I offer the person free matches to burn the letter with. 

[UTPhil2006 3753]

1 hour ago, KYHorn said:

Any guess on what's causing this? My limited understanding is that uncertainty in the market (wars, for example) usually leads to higher MBS? We barely saw a blip.

Where to start?  It's certainly not following logic anymore.  We're at 3 year highs currently.

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

13 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Inventory is so low, when I pre-approve people below 400K, I offer the person free matches to burn the letter with. 

I laughed way harder than I should have.  Thanks for that pick me up (also- I can't tell you how badly I feel for first time buyers- those poor bastards).

[Neonmoon 38126]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I laughed way harder than I should have.  Thanks for that pick me up (also- I can't tell you how badly I feel for first time buyers- those poor bastards).

I mean I was joking, but in reality, I'm not. There are zero homes in my area below 300K and anything below 400K will be fighting hand to hand combat against a hundred other buyers.