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The US and Korea


RomaVicta

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52 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

 

 

And right on cue, China has begun trading again with North Korea, undermining our sanctions and destroying our leverage:

Story:

 

 

Well, see, this is a HUGE surprise to.....absolutely nobody who knows ANYTHING about the dynamic of the Korean peninsula.  I'm serious, not just "unsruprising," but actually EXACTLY how folks expected it to play out.

NORKS say/do the right things (and, importantly, aren't conducting any more nuclear tests).  That's what China wanted -- the NORKs to amp down the tension just enough to get the US hackles to go down, so the US wouldn't be over there meddling all the time.  China got what it wanted, and now it rewards its lapdog.

And Trump, being a "fucking moron" as so aptly observed by his cabinet, had no fucking clue.

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North Korea is never going to denuclearize, and there's no way an American with any sense should ever expect them too. The whole play is the same as it has been for decades... Prop up our relationship with the south and keep tensions on the north just high enough so the south is grateful to have our military and intelligence there. That way we keep a presence close off China's coast and can monitor the stuff they and their little puppets in the north do. It's all about stalemate of the powers to keep WW3 from kicking up. 

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53 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Well, see, this is a HUGE surprise to.....absolutely nobody who knows ANYTHING about the dynamic of the Korean peninsula.  I'm serious, not just "unsruprising," but actually EXACTLY how folks expected it to play out.

NORKS say/do the right things (and, importantly, aren't conducting any more nuclear tests).  That's what China wanted -- the NORKs to amp down the tension just enough to get the US hackles to go down, so the US wouldn't be over there meddling all the time.  China got what it wanted, and now it rewards its lapdog.

And Trump, being a "fucking moron" as so aptly observed by his cabinet, had no fucking clue.

We all quite literally called it. Unfortunately, Trump's fans won't learn anything from this because they're incapable of learning.

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5 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

We all quite literally called it. Unfortunately, Trump's fans won't learn anything from this because they're incapable of learning.

The worst part about the NK Summit was no big voices in the media screaming, “THIS IS A BAD IDEA!”

Fox News was ejaculating Trump as usual and the other MSM voices were like, “It could work...let’s give it a shot!”

No, it was a fucking terrible idea when Obama suggested it and an even worse idea when Trump did it.

SMH

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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The worst part about the NK Summit was no big voices in the media screaming, “THIS IS A BAD IDEA!”
Fox News was ejaculating Trump as usual and the other MSM voices were like, “It could work...let’s give it a shot!”
No, it was a fucking terrible idea when Obama suggested it and an even worse idea when Trump did it.
SMH

That’s not true - LOTS of media sources gave platforms to experts on the DPRK who said “going in without a prepackaged plan is a bad idea.” There was a shitload of writing and reporting on just that.
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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


That’s not true - LOTS of media sources gave platforms to experts on the DPRK who said “going in without a prepackaged plan is a bad idea.” There was a shitload of writing and reporting on just that.

Okay, I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt on this but I can’t name one pundit off the top of my head that was vehemently against the Summit.  

I’m sure there were plenty of scholars and experts against a Summit without preconditions. However, they didn’t get the airtime they deserved to voice their arguments in the mediums Americans view the most.

Way too much wishful thinking and ignorance of the history is what I saw.

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  • 4 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...

In North Korea, Missile Bases Suggest a Great Deception

WASHINGTON — North Korea is moving ahead with its ballistic missile program at 16 hidden bases that have been identified in new commercial satellite images, a network long known to American intelligence agencies but left undiscussed as President Trump claims to have neutralized the North’s nuclear threat.

The satellite images suggest that the North has been engaged in a great deception: It has offered to dismantle a major launching site — a step it began, then halted — while continuing to make improvements at more than a dozen others that would bolster launches of conventional and nuclear warheads.

The existence of the ballistic missile bases, which North Korea has never acknowledged, contradicts Mr. Trump’s assertion that his landmark diplomacy is leading to the elimination of a nuclear and missile program that the North had warned could devastate the United States.

“We are in no rush,” Mr. Trump said of talks with the North at a news conference on Wednesday, after Republicans lost control of the House. “The sanctions are on. The missiles have stopped. The rockets have stopped. The hostages are home.”

His statement was true in just one sense. Mr. Trump appeared to be referring to the halt of missile flight tests, which have not occurred in nearly a year. But American intelligence officials say that the North’s production of nuclear material, of new nuclear weapons and of missiles that can be placed on mobile launchers and hidden in mountains at the secret bases has continued.

And the sanctions are collapsing, in part because North Korea has leveraged its new, softer-sounding relationship with Washington, and its stated commitment to eventual denuclearization, to resume trade with Russia and China.

Moreover, an American program to track those mobile missiles with a new generation of small, inexpensive satellites, disclosed by The New York Times more than a year ago, is stalled. The Pentagon once hoped to have the first satellites over North Korea by now, giving it early warning if the mobile missiles are rolled out of mountain tunnels and prepared for launch.

But because of a series of budget and bureaucratic disputes, the early warning system, begun by the Obama administration and handed off to the Trump administration, has yet to go into operation. Current and former officials, who said they could not publicly discuss the program because it is heavily classified, said there was still hope of launching the satellites, but they offered no timeline.

The secret ballistic missile bases were identified in a detailed study  published Monday by the Beyond Parallel program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a major think tank in Washington.

The program, which focuses on the prospects of North-South integration, is led by Victor Cha, a prominent North Korea expert whom the Trump administration considered appointing as the ambassador to South Korea last year. His name was pulled back when he objected to the White House strategy for dealing with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader.

A State Department spokesman responded to the findings with a written statement suggesting that the government believed the sites must be dismantled: “President Trump has made clear that should Chairman Kim follow through on his commitments, including complete denuclearization and the elimination of ballistic missile programs, a much brighter future lies ahead for North Korea and its people.” A spokesman for the C.I.A. declined to comment.

The revelation of the bases comes as Mr. Trump’s signature piece of diplomacy, based on his meeting exactly five months ago with Mr. Kim, appears in peril. Publicly, Mr. Trump remains relentlessly optimistic, to the point that he said at a campaign rally that he and Mr. Kim, one of the world’s most brutal dictators, “fell in love.” But last week, talks with the North hit another snag, as it declared that it would not send its chief negotiator to meet with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in New York to plan the next summit meeting.

Since the initial meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim, on June 12 in Singapore, the North has yet to take the first step toward denuclearization: providing the United States with a list of its nuclear sites, weapons, production facilities and missile bases. North Korean officials have told Mr. Pompeo that would amount to giving him a “target list.”

American officials have responded that they already have a detailed target list — one that goes back decades — but want to use the North’s accounting to determine whether it is revealing all the known facilities and moving honestly toward denuclearization.

The new satellite imagery suggests the opposite.

“It’s not like these bases have been frozen,” Mr. Cha, the leader of the team that studied the images, said in an interview. “Work is continuing. What everybody is worried about is that Trump is going to accept a bad deal — they give us a single test site and dismantle a few other things, and in return they get a peace agreement” that formally ends the Korean War.

Mr. Trump, he said, “would then declare victory, say he got more than any other American president ever got, and the threat would still be there.”

The North Korea experts who have examined the images believe that the North’s motivations are fairly easy to interpret. “It looks like they’re trying to maximize their capabilities,” Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., a co-author of the report and a veteran analyst of satellite images of North Korea, said in an interview. “Any missile at these bases can take a nuclear warhead.”

“The level of effort that North Korea has invested in building these bases and dispersing them is impressive,” he added. “It’s very logical from a survival point of view.”

Weapons experts, as well as Mr. Pompeo, say that North Korea, despite engaging in denuclearization talks, continues to produce the fissile material that fuels nuclear arms. The North is believed to have about 40 to 60 nuclear warheads.

The new report profiles a missile base known as Sakkanmol, a little more than 50 miles north of the Demilitarized Zone. It is one of the closest to South Korea. Seoul, the capital, is about 80 miles away, as are American troops.

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The report contains a dozen or so satellite images of Sakkanmol — each heavily annotated to show the base checkpoint, headquarters buildings, barracks, security areas, maintenance depots and the entrances to the warrens of underground tunnels that hide mobile missiles and their transporter trucks.

The base runs through a narrow mountain valley over an area of three square miles. Each tunnel entrance, the report says, is protected by a neighboring berm of rock and dirt about 60 feet high and two outward-opening doors about 20 feet wide. They are meant to protect the tunnel entrances from artillery fire and aerial attack.

The report says the Sakkanmol base conceals seven lengthy tunnels that can accommodate up to 18 transporters that move the missiles. Each is typically fitted with one warhead.

If tensions rose, the report says, the missiles would be transported from the base to prearranged launching sites — often no more than a wide spot in a road. The mobile launchers can move quickly — they can be ready to fire in under an hour — which is why the United States has been trying to get the small satellites into the sky for early warning. The satellites have a special kind of sensor using “synthetic aperture radar” that cuts through clouds.

The current, multibillion-dollar constellation of large satellites that keep an eye on North Korea is often out of position, and officials say the country’s ballistic missile sites are under surveillance less than 30 percent of the time. (The exact figure is classified.)

A map of North Korea in the report shows three belts of missile bases that run from short-range tactical emplacements, to sites with midrange missiles that could strike most of South Korea, Japan and American bases in the Pacific, to strategic ones for missiles that threaten to reach American shores.

The strategic bases appear to be home to the intercontinental ballistic missiles that North Korea test-fired in 2017, alarming the world. The North’s tests, while demonstrating significant progress, did not prove that it had solved all the technical problems inherent in launching a nuclear warhead that could reach the continental United States. That is why Mr. Trump and Mr. Pompeo have argued that the halt to missile testing is a major accomplishment: It prevents Mr. Kim from demonstrating that he can take those last steps.

The report, which was also written with Lisa Collins, a research fellow at the center, supplemented the satellite imagery with interviews of North Korean defectors and government officials around the world.

The North’s missile bases, with few exceptions, are “in mountainous terrain, often spread out within narrow dead-end valleys,” Mr. Bermudez said. He added, “These bases simply do not look like missile operating bases as seen in the United States, Russia, China or Europe.”

Major nuclear powers tend to house their land-based missiles in underground silos, which can be vulnerable to pre-emptive attack. The North’s heavy reliance on missiles that can be repositioned with the changing circumstances of war is part of an effort to avoid that mistake, while giving the country a stronger hand in the game of nuclear diplomacy and brinkmanship.

“The bases are clearly active,” Mr. Cha said. “It’s not like these things have been frozen and are decaying.”

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  • 1 month later...
2 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

And not one dumbfuck Trumpkin will ever admit that yes, all you guys who said N. Korea will never denuclearize were right all along. 

Well, there are those that live in a bubble of information:

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How will this be spun by the White House is what I wonder...

Edited by kopp0e
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The Dilbert guy was tweeting about everybody's lack of "imagination" re NK (esp those head shakers at CNN) and that Trump had some kind of otherwordly preternatural negotiatior's super power about to kick in as NK was completely set up to fall under his spell ....

Alas.

Now he's boasting of the bipartisan wall Trump's about to oh so gloriously build.

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Just now, MaybeACoordinator said:

Glad my son got the fuck out of there. He said a colonel told them they were really, really close to a shooting war back when the fucking Tweets were flying back and forth between Lil' Kim and the Dotard. 

He was wrong. It was never anything more than theater. Kim won. Trump was predictably weak. 

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He was wrong. It was never anything more than theater. Kim won. Trump was predictably weak. 

He’s not wrong. I know some of the leading folks in the DPRK field. One of them (who is now on the outside) got a call from a colleague telling him, with urgency, that he needs to tell his friends in Seoul to GTFO right away during that period.

We were closer to a fight than we’ve been since the war ended...and nukes were in play. It was risky and scary as hell.

But hey, at least after all that, we managed to get (checking notes)...absolutely nothing.

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

He’s not wrong. I know some of the leading folks in the DPRK field. One of them (who is now on the outside) got a call from a colleague telling him, with urgency, that he needs to tell his friends in Seoul to GTFO right away during that period.

We were closer to a fight than we’ve been since the war ended...and nukes were in play. It was risky and scary as hell.

But hey, at least after all that, we managed to get (checking notes)...absolutely nothing.

Kim wasn't going to shoot first. Their fears were based on not trusting Trump to refrain from shooting first. Trump is a phony. A schoolyard bully. He was never going to shoot first either. That was a manufactured crisis. 

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Just now, WhatTheBuck said:

Kim wasn't going to shoot first. Their fears were based on not trusting Trump to refrain from shooting first. Trump is a phony. A schoolyard bully. He was never going to shoot first either. That was a manufactured crisis. 

The problem is, you're not disproving the reason for the very real fears.  It's like any other fight -- if one side acts belligerent and unpredictable ENOUGH....then the other side feels like it has no choice but to throw a punch right before the (expected) punch from the other guy.  That's where the DPRK was at the time -- Trump's bellicose rhetoric and erratic, unpredictable threats put the DPRK in a position of thinking "fuck, that nutbar really is going to attack us...we have no chance unless we hit his forces first."  The war would have been a DPRK first strike, but from their perspective, it would have been a pre-emptive strike against the American attack that was coming any minute now.

WE know he's a phony and bully.  The DPRK doesn't have our perspective, though.  Trump was playing a dangerous game.  And 10+ years from now, when enough time has passed and we get the full story of what military forces were up to, we're going to confirm that we were dangerously close to a war caused by pure idiocy.

But hey, at least we gained (checks notes again, just to be sure).....absolutely nothing.

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22 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The problem is, you're not disproving the reason for the very real fears.  It's like any other fight -- if one side acts belligerent and unpredictable ENOUGH....then the other side feels like it has no choice but to throw a punch right before the (expected) punch from the other guy.  That's where the DPRK was at the time -- Trump's bellicose rhetoric and erratic, unpredictable threats put the DPRK in a position of thinking "fuck, that nutbar really is going to attack us...we have no chance unless we hit his forces first."  The war would have been a DPRK first strike, but from their perspective, it would have been a pre-emptive strike against the American attack that was coming any minute now.

WE know he's a phony and bully.  The DPRK doesn't have our perspective, though.  Trump was playing a dangerous game.  And 10+ years from now, when enough time has passed and we get the full story of what military forces were up to, we're going to confirm that we were dangerously close to a war caused by pure idiocy.

But hey, at least we gained (checks notes again, just to be sure).....absolutely nothing.

Really? We have HUMINT sources embedded that deeply in the DPRK to know that? And there's been no serious effort to remove Dotard from power? Is Mattis aware of any of this?

Wait, no, that can't be correct. Trump threatened Kim to stop testing and Kim went on testing. He was never going to launch a first strike. He knew we weren't either. He knew he was up against an incompetent and played us for fools. He was thumbing his nose in our face the whole time. Trump was getting played and it was obvious. 

Edited by WhatTheBuck
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3 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Really? We have HUMINT sources embedded that deeply in the DPRK to know that? And there's been no serious effort to remove Dotard from power? Is Mattis aware of any of this?

We DO have HUMINT (not a lot, but we do have it).  And we also have the ability to observe DPRK military movements.

The people inside who were sounding the alarm weren't just going with their gut.  They were looking at real-time intel, and telling folks they knew to GTFO of the peninsula.  Not just one random person or two, either.    And yes, Mattis was of course aware of this.  But he's a Marine, and he has a job to do -- if his CINC gets his men in a stupid war, his job is to try to win that stupid war, not bitch about how stupid it is.

Edited by Brisketexan
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8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We DO have HUMINT (not a lot, but we do have it).  And we also have the ability to observe DPRK military movements.

The people inside who were sounding the alarm weren't just going with their gut.  They were looking at real-time intel, and telling folks they knew to GTFO of the peninsula.  Not just one random person or two, either.    And yes, Mattis was of course aware of this.  But he's a Marine, and he has a job to do -- if his CINC gets his men in a stupid war, his job is to try to win that stupid war, not bitch about how stupid it is.

Trump promised "fire and fury" if Kim went on testing. If Kim was really concerned about us attacking, why did he go on testing? Why didn't he attack first? What stopped him? (Other than that to do so would mean suicide which is why neither his father nor grandfather ever did.) China said that if N. Korea attacked first, they'd be on their own, but if the U.S. attacked first, they'd defend N. Korea. I don't know where that falls on your panic timeline but it reinforces why no attacks between the two have ever happened and why they won't anytime soon. 

The U.S. and N. Korea have been playing this game for years. The only thing different this time around is that we've got a reality tv president trying to turn it into a fake emergency just like with the caravan. Kim was on top of that shit the whole time. He knows the game a hell of a lot better than Trump. That's his family business and he's been training for it his whole life. Our second rate real estate tycoon president was totally out of his league.

The moment Kim tested a rocket after Trump warned him not to, and Trump didn't respond, Kim knew he'd won. He had the upper hand every step of the way. He dragged us to the negotiating table looking like our equal, gave us nothing, and is continuing to rub our faces in it. It looks to me like he's never had any reason to fear an attack from us because he kept poking the bear. And because of that he's never had any reason to launch a preemptive strike that would result in his certain death. 

 

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

The problem is, you're not disproving the reason for the very real fears.  It's like any other fight -- if one side acts belligerent and unpredictable ENOUGH....then the other side feels like it has no choice but to throw a punch right before the (expected) punch from the other guy.  That's where the DPRK was at the time -- Trump's bellicose rhetoric and erratic, unpredictable threats put the DPRK in a position of thinking "fuck, that nutbar really is going to attack us...we have no chance unless we hit his forces first."  The war would have been a DPRK first strike, but from their perspective, it would have been a pre-emptive strike against the American attack that was coming any minute now.

WE know he's a phony and bully.  The DPRK doesn't have our perspective, though.  Trump was playing a dangerous game.  And 10+ years from now, when enough time has passed and we get the full story of what military forces were up to, we're going to confirm that we were dangerously close to a war caused by pure idiocy.

But hey, at least we gained (checks notes again, just to be sure).....absolutely nothing.

The biggest threat was always a miscalculation.

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  • 2 weeks later...

It’s not a staring contest.  It’s the United States getting diplomatically raped. 

Lil Kim is squeezing Trump while he still can.  Initially, Kim probably thought Trump was going to be President for a long time.  Recent developments have likely inspired him to up his game playing Trump.

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21 hours ago, suddenly shaggy said:

He's absolutely doing another summit. This is a great way for him to control the media narrative for about a week and a half before he's on to the next distraction. 

Oh, he really wants to for those reasons but he won’t for the same reasons he doesn’t go to Moscow to meet with daddy.  

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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The humiliation continues 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-china-visit-idUSKCN1P12A7

 

SHANGHAI/SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is visiting China at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, only days after warning he may take an alternative path if the United States does not ease sanctions and pressure on his isolated country. 

The visit, confirmed by North Korean and Chinese state media, will likely lead to Kim's fourth summit with Xi in the last year and comes amid plans for a second summit with Trump aimed at denuclearizing the Korean peninsula.

Kim held three summits last year with Xi, his most important ally, before and after summits with Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in. "Kim is eager to remind the Trump administration that he does have diplomatic and economic options besides what Washington and Seoul can offer," Harry J. Kazianis, Director of Defense Studies at U.S.-based Center for the National Interest said in an e-mailed statement.

"In fact, during his New Year’s Days speech, Kim's 'new way' that he referred to may well have been a veiled threat to move closer to Beijing. That should make America quite concerned." 

Kim left for China on a private train on Monday afternoon accompanied by his wife, Ri Sol Ju, and senior North Korean officials, including Kim Yong Chol and Ri Yong Ho, North Korea's state-run KCNA news agency said. China's official Xinhua news agency also confirmed that Kim is visiting from Monday to Thursday at Xi's invitation.

The visit coincided with what South Korean officials say is Kim's 35th birthday on January 8.

"He was warmly seen off by leading officials of the Party, government and armed forces organs at the railway station," KCNA said in its report. 

Kim's visit to North Korea's most important economic and diplomatic ally, which was first reported by South Korean media, comes amid reports of advanced negotiations for a second summit between Washington and Pyongyang aimed at resolving the standoff over North Korea's nuclear program.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Why not done?

Days after the White House announced plans for a second nuclear summit between the United States and North Korea, a think tank report has identified a secret North Korean ballistic missile base about 160 miles northwest of Seoul that is reportedly the headquarters of the country’s strategic missile force.

The report, released Monday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the base is one of approximately 20 undeclared missile operating bases, part of Pyongyang’s ongoing ballistic missile program. Researchers at the center’s Beyond Parallel project said the latest report provides more evidence that North Korea is not dismantling its weapons facilities.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/report-identifies-another-secret-north-korea-missile-site-one-of-20/2019/01/21/4066aeec-1db0-11e9-9145-3f74070bbdb9_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.1b6a053320bd

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We are getting diplomatically raped by North Korea and it’s depressing. 

If we are really having a second Summit (I still cannot believe we’re doing this), here’s what I expect to happen: 

The location will probably be Vietnam meaning Kim will have the Americans once again crawling to his table to surrender.

Look for Lil’ Kim to call off the Summit as a show of “fuck you” again.  Dotard will probably escalate the situation to distract from the treason hammer coming down.

The media will fall for these theatrics and amp up the anxiety.  Trump and Kim will ultimately reconcile and have the Summit creating the perception that a major conflict was averted.

Trump’s master deal making skills saved America once again.

And Kim’s grip on the North Korean people tightens.

We walk away from the table with less than nothing again.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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