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Jimbaround

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1 hour ago, RichUT said:

Selling shit on the secondary market is contributing to the problem. If you bought something you don’t plan to consume, sell it for what you paid or trade it for something of comparable value. It’s fucking whiskey, not a stock.

I generally agree with this, but if you get a Weller Full Proof at retail and someone is willing to trade a bottle/bottles at a much higher value to obtain it, I don't see the problem. 

 

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You need to evaluate the secondary market before you accuse anyone here of contributing to the nonsense. We aren’t even close to being the problem


He said he was considering selling on the secondary market before others chimed in with interest in buying the bottle. My comment was specific to his original stated intent.

As for trades, comparable value is subjective and will vary from person to person. I didn’t mean to imply that trades needed to be for comparable SRP value. If someone really wants to trade a SFTB for a WFP despite the SFTB carrying a much higher SRP, that’s a personal decision.

And I get the supply and demand dynamic, but the industry is thriving on product scarcity and the only people losing here are the consumers. The distilleries could stop all of this (and make more profit) if they wanted to, but the scarcity aspect is an integral component of accelerating demand. How much of the prized whiskey in the world is in the hands of people that have no intention of drinking it? It’s an unanswerable question, but I am confident that an acceptable answer is “too damn much”.
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2 hours ago, RichUT said:

 


He said he was considering selling on the secondary market before others chimed in with interest in buying the bottle. My comment was specific to his original stated intent.

As for trades, comparable value is subjective and will vary from person to person. I didn’t mean to imply that trades needed to be for comparable SRP value. If someone really wants to trade a SFTB for a WFP despite the SFTB carrying a much higher SRP, that’s a personal decision.

And I get the supply and demand dynamic, but the industry is thriving on product scarcity and the only people losing here are the consumers. The distilleries could stop all of this (and make more profit) if they wanted to, but the scarcity aspect is an integral component of accelerating demand. How much of the prized whiskey in the world is in the hands of people that have no intention of drinking it? It’s an unanswerable question, but I am confident that an acceptable answer is “too damn much”.

 

I don’t think it’s as much product scarcity as it is the games that distributors play with stores to get allocated products. Yes, there are fewer allocated bottles made than your standard stuff, but I’m sure distributors hold more stuff back than they really should be.  They’re the ones creating the “scarcity” games, not the distilleries.  All you have to do is join a Facebook bourbon group and see the massive amounts of allocated bottles that these flippers have.  Flippers pay off managers at stores to get the info on when stuff is coming in.  Hell, I know of a manager for a chain in SA and New Braunfels who flips bottles on the side.

Case in point, look at Weller 107. That shit is all around Ohio like it’s water. Yet, here in Texas we get a few allocated drops a year.  You gotta have your name on some list or get lucky on an incoming drop to score it. You mean to tell me that Buffalo Trace is sending Ohio more Weller 107 than fucking Texas?  In the words of Kevin McCallister, “I don’t think so”. 

I know it likely won’t happen since the distributors have huge lobbying influence in the state, but I hope Texas signs on to let customers buy directly from distilleries like many other states do and will do in the future. 

Edited by Yev Kassem
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10 hours ago, RichUT said:

 


He said he was considering selling on the secondary market before others chimed in with interest in buying the bottle. My comment was specific to his original stated intent.

As for trades, comparable value is subjective and will vary from person to person. I didn’t mean to imply that trades needed to be for comparable SRP value. If someone really wants to trade a SFTB for a WFP despite the SFTB carrying a much higher SRP, that’s a personal decision.

And I get the supply and demand dynamic, but the industry is thriving on product scarcity and the only people losing here are the consumers. The distilleries could stop all of this (and make more profit) if they wanted to, but the scarcity aspect is an integral component of accelerating demand. How much of the prized whiskey in the world is in the hands of people that have no intention of drinking it? It’s an unanswerable question, but I am confident that an acceptable answer is “too damn much”.

 

The industry is thriving on product scarcity because the consumers are making the product scarce. The issue you appear to have is people that purchase the product and do not consume the product. That is an acceptable position. How many people on this thread have posted pictures of collections of 20, 40, 60, 100 bottles? So your issue is with them, is it not? It’s hard for a company to produce enough bourbon for everyone to have 8 backups, right? At the same time, who are you to determine how one uses a product they lawfully purchased? How can you compare the joy you experience from consuming the product to the joy they feel possessing the product? 

The industry has taken the position to not charge obscene amounts of money so anyone can afford their product, no matter how in demand. That is a noble position. They could end that by charging $1000 for Pappy or $800 for Handy and only the rich would enjoy it. One could argue that is the case now because of flippers, but there are some whether by long standing relationships, continued business, or dumb luck that do purchase these bottle for MSRP and enjoy them. 

Raising the price wouldn’t stop the hoarders, it would stop the only the non rich hoarders, which only benefits the rich. 
 

 

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4 hours ago, huge said:

Regarding the SFTB, I recommend trading for other scarce bottles.  That is a great way to get a bottle you never would otherwise and SFTB has good secondary trade value.

Exacrly.  I do plenty of trading at secondary pricing because good luck getting any traction on your trades otherwise.  For example this year I paid $160 or so each for two bottles of OFBB and traded one away for an ORVW, which I’ve never found at any price.  
 

And I’m definitely part of the scarcity problem with 100+ unopened.  But I can afford it and this is America so whatever.  

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BTW, I'll let y'all in on my secret to finding this SFTB...

I vacation in Sint Maarten every Christmas.  I take a day trip to Phillipsburg one of those days and hit up the same liquor store.  Usually, I get a couple bottles of JW Blue for around $120 (no tax there either), but they were out this year.  I'm still a neophyte in the bourbon world but saw they had the Blanton's (a LOT of it, BTW) and realized that it was a steal at their price - $135.  So, I had them deliver the 2 bottles to my condo.  I also bought some Conde de Cuba Extra Anejo 15 year rum that they recommended (same price as Havana Club) and a couple other things.

I suggest that if you travel to SXM, you do the same and bring an extra suitcase for your treats.

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I hope to live long enough to drink every ounce of the bourbon I have. And I don’t give a flying fuck what you think about my ownership of said bottles. 

Maybe if you stopped buying you could. But you won’t so you can’t.

It’s just simple math
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Distillers have often been quoted as saying that they intentionally keep prices low in hopes that it reaches the widest audience. My hypothesis is that they do this because bourbon distillers are generally blue collar folks and not vintners who thrive on the high class perception that premium wine carries. The issue as I see it is the distillers have completely lost control of how their product gets distributed and at what price. Distillers want to produce a good product, they don't want to be in the logistics business, so they offload it to large distributors who have national and international channels. Distributors see the demand of the product as an opportunity to bundle it with other product that may not have the same frenzied fanbase. Suddenly this makes the good product exponentially more expensive for the small independent stores that normally wouldn't buy a thousand cases of Cuervo every month. To make up for the hit, they hide the bottle and find creative ways to either recover the cost by passing it onto the consumer, or by using it as a way to get folks in the store (raffles) for a chance at selling other product. One solution to the consumers' problem of being unable to find an affordable bottle is buying direct from the distiller. Unfortunately, this puts a lot of small independent stores at risk, but my free market opinion is that liquor stores only exist because of government regulations designed to curb access to the evils of alcohol. I want to purchase a product of which I am a legal age to purchase, therefore I shouldn't have to go into a special store for it. 

In summary: 

1) Distillers don't need to make more product. There's a lot of it out there already.

2) Distillers don't need to increase prices. This will only inflate the already inflated secondary prices.

3) Distributors are playing the game because they can within the confines of the law.

4) Buying direct from distillers could risk putting independent small liquor stores out of business. 

5) Buying direct could reduce the power of the slimy distributors. 

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3 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Lol at people having the same debate again about secondary prices

 

liquids are are worth whatever people are paying for them. If u want to drink em, drink em. If you want to flip em, flip em. The market eventually evens out. Buncha newbs in here

This is a lazy assessment. The point wasn't to determine what the product is worth. The point was to determine why people often must turn to a black market to procure their desired bottle.

"Hur hur bubble will burst." Fuck off.

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18 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Lol at people having the same debate again about secondary prices

 

liquids are are worth whatever people are paying for them. If u want to drink em, drink em. If you want to flip em, flip em. The market eventually evens out. Buncha newbs in here

Well said Dan, well said. 

Edited by billfromlaketravis
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I'm encouraged by the price reductions in scotch. A good bottle of 12 year scotch costs $60 now. Part of the appeal of bourbon was that it's significantly cheaper than scotch. While that's still true in some cases, the gap is closing quickly. Also high quality scotch is widely available. 

So do most casual drinkers like bourbon because of the taste? Or is it a scarcity / FOMO thing? Do they want to drink bourbon because of the marketing, "The American Spirit"?

I could see a scenario where there's a pivot back to scotch because it's cheaper and easier to find. These things tend to cyclical. 

 

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1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I'm encouraged by the price reductions in scotch. A good bottle of 12 year scotch costs $60 now. Part of the appeal of bourbon was that it's significantly cheaper than scotch. While that's still true in some cases, the gap is closing quickly. Also high quality scotch is widely available. 

So do most casual drinkers like bourbon because of the taste? Or is it a scarcity / FOMO thing? Do they want to drink bourbon because of the marketing, "The American Spirit"?

I could see a scenario where there's a pivot back to scotch because it's cheaper and easier to find. These things tend to cyclical. 

 

Except that bourbon tastes a lot better than scotch.

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2 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

True, but not necessarily universally true. I have a theory that the casual drinker just wants what's trendy. This would explain the vodka fad. 

Ok well I have tried a lot of very good scotch.  And vodka has it's place.  Love gin and tequila.  Rum is the low man on my totem pole.

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2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Or, maybe, they are smart and playing a longer game. 

This. They don’t manage for a year or two. They manage for 10+ year terms. Especially since the shit they make takes so damn long to get to market. They’re aren’t Nostradamus. They have no idea where the market for bourbon will be in a decade. Just ask the dudes making bourbon in the 70s/80s. 
 

Also, topical.....

 

 

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Or, maybe, they are smart and playing a longer game. 

They aren’t that smart. Whatever (doubtful) loyalty they might lose would soon be forgotten. I’m talking about raising the prices to a more reasonable level, not that it has to come close to the secondary market level. Bordeaux producers have been doing it in a smart way with their wine for many, many years. Vintages for wine are a little different than a distilled spirit, but they have a huge global market as does bourbon.
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I apparently got little value from my BS in Economics at UT. So perhaps someone with a PHD in Economics can better educate me on how the law of supply and demand is somehow being fucked by the secondary market and, further, how my purchasing of a bottle (or 20) on the secondary market somehow fucks over someone that wanted to buy that at retail (seeing as most of those bottles were sold in the store 5-25 years ago)
 

I’ll hang up and listen to the experts. 

Edited by Bert Orange
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14 hours ago, Bert Orange said:

I apparently got little value from my BS in Economics at UT. So perhaps someone with a PHD in Economics can better educate me on how the law of supply and demand is somehow being fucked by the secondary market and, further, how my purchasing of a bottle (or 20) on the secondary market somehow fucks over someone that wanted to buy that at retail (seeing as most of those bottles were sold in the store 5-25 years ago)
 

I’ll hang up and listen to the experts. 

I don't have a PhD but I am getting a MA in Economics currently. If you're fucking over retail shoppers, it's because your willingness to pay elevated prices on the secondary market drives the flippers who camp out the stores to buy up any stock that comes in. In theory, if all transactions were above board, you'd know that all (or most) sales were for personal consumption. As it stands, it's a self sustaining problem where anyone who shrugs and says "well, Eagle Rare must be worth $200/bottle to some people" misses the point. 

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Places like Cask Cartel that charge $200 for a bottle of Weller Special Reserve makes me extra ragey. The big online sellers are the worst offenders in my opinion. Link: https://caskcartel.com/products/w-l-weller-special-reserve-bourbon-whiskey?_pos=1&_sid=13e44c157&_ss=r

I don't like flippers, but they do provide a service. None of us are going to be able to get more than one or two BTACs in a single year, and we most likely won't get to pick which bottle the liquor store will sell to us. So if I get a bottle of GTS, but I want a bottle of 2020 Handy, where else am I going to go? 

These family owned shops have access to the internet, they're going to figure out what the secondary value of their bottles are. Some of them are going to mark up because they want to make a living. I mean hell, even Deb's marks up, and y'all love shopping there. 

I think a good tactic to counter the flipper lines is to put products out gradually during the day and limit it to one bottle per customer. Flippers are sitting on the 10 am open at the big box stores. 

Edited by billfromlaketravis
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I think it's a hard sell for most family-owned shops to try and slow foot traffic. If my goal is to sell 100 bottles, I don't care if it's 1 person buying 100 or 100 people buying 1. I'm personally more interested in examining the factors that have forced enthusiasts into a black market and determining if there's an opportunity to improve the situation for business owners and customers alike. I'm less interested in catering to or fighting against bootleggers. 

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On 1/5/2021 at 6:29 PM, Party_Taco said:

Oh hey girl, heyyy!

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Reviews on this are dy-no-mite and I can’t wait to try... maybe later tonight

I passed when a friend spotted one in Houston. The rumors (most likely fact) about Fred Noe rejecting the initial batch were concerning. I’m sure they fixed it, but whatever was in the initial batch is still in there. 

A lot of enthusiasts have bitched about the Booker’s price increases, and I think they’re warranted. The only Booker’s batch worth $70 was Kentucky Chew. I liked Shiny Barrel, but it drank like a good $50 bourbon. Very small sample size, but I didn’t like Country Ham. 

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23 hours ago, Eggo said:

I don't have a PhD but I am getting a MA in Economics currently. If you're fucking over retail shoppers, it's because your willingness to pay elevated prices on the secondary market drives the flippers who camp out the stores to buy up any stock that comes in. In theory, if all transactions were above board, you'd know that all (or most) sales were for personal consumption. As it stands, it's a self sustaining problem where anyone who shrugs and says "well, Eagle Rare must be worth $200/bottle to some people" misses the point. 

Chicken...egg. The flippers are there because there is demand for certain product in excess of supply (not In general - plenty of that around - bottle specific). Even if all 100 allocated bottles were on shelves for JQP to buy, there are more than 100 JQPs that want it. So the imbalance already exists. Flippers know this and take advantage of the market dynamic for gain. As Bill said, they provide a service and secondary buyers pay for that service (if they so choose). The flipper does not prevent anyone from acquiring that bottle at retail by the same means. Also the fact that most of these never see the shelf anyway is another dynamic at play. Most stores offer these to individuals that patronize their stores in volume significant to attain these allocations. So unless you are a big money spender, or want to wait in line overnight, you’ll never see them. Blame the stores?  The secondary market exists such that anyone can get access to the limited bottles. It isn’t going away for so long as this imbalance exists. And as I said, my purchase of a Pappy bottle from 2009 on January 2, 2020 does not change in any way the pricing of a bottle of Blantons today. Just doesn’t. Consumer behavior is what changes anything and everything. Simply stop buying allocated items and buy what is readily available on the shelf. Plenty of bourbon out there. Or stop drinking bourbon and try rum. Trying to lay blame at the feet of a secondary buyer is hogwash. Under the above board only model - where there is no secondary market - then the 100 bottles of Pappy Van Staggtons would go to whoever was lucky enough to be in the store that day to grab as much as he/she wished for his/her personal consumption. And I guess the 1000, 10,000, 100,000 other people wanting that allocated bottle would just never get to drink one. All of which assumes the wholesalers wouldn’t jack the price and/or Retailers wouldn’t jack the price and/or the stores wouldn’t still play the hide the bottle game for their best customers. 

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I think there's a cheapness/thrifty component at play. BTAC costs $100, so of course people want to pay $100 for it. Some would rather kick the ground and bitch about how they can't find a bottle when in actuality the bottle they want is available on the secondary market. 

Meanwhile, the BTAC they're dying to try is sitting on the shelf at Whiskey Cake for $45 a pour. If you want it bad enough, go get it.

I've paid secondary twice, both last year. 

1) I tried 2019 GTS at Whiskey Cake and loved it. A friend spotted a bottle a little bit under Facebook prices at a small mom and pop store in Houston. I paid cash so they knocked $100 off. It was a great bottle I opened on a special occasion. No regrets. 

2) I rolled the dice and bought a bottle of Blanton's SFTB from the UK. I had never tried it before, but hey, I like Blanton's, so uncut/unfiltered Blanton's has to be good, right?  The site I used offered a discount for SFTB without the box. I don't need a stupid box, so I pulled the trigger. It was an amazing bottle I opened on a special occasion. Again no regrets. 

There's a lot of good bourbon on the shelf. Plenty of good store picks. If you want BTAC for a special occasion, or let's be honest, the social media likes, it's going to cost. That's just the way it is. 

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