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4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So Erdogan is trying to flat-out steal it.  Bold strategy in this day and age.

 

I am not a Turkey wonk, but my bet is that he’s buying time. He wants to find out if he actually lost in the first round outright or if this will go to round 2. He’ll accept round 2, but if he lost outright that’s when he’ll trigger the other authoritarian tricks. 

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14 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I want to add, it’s a nightmare trying to get good news and commentary on this, as I don’t have my feed cultivated and am less sensitive to the signs of utter bullshit in the Turkey info space. Cool job, Elon! 

Yeah, and it's now 9pm in Turkey/Turkiye, so the results are supposed to be released.

So the misinformation channels are flooding the zone.

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One of the cul-de-sacs the aspiring democratic world (that includes us) has to find a way out of:

It’s unreasonable to expect people go play by the rules to bear people who don’t play by the rules. But once you start breaking them as well, you lose the entire argument for yourself. 
 

Nothing about Turkey’s system outside of strict ballot counting is fair or democratic, which renders even “fair” elections tainted. 

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one note - the percentage they are showing is the percentage of "ballot boxes opened" (kind of like how we have total precincts reporting).

as of now 89% of the boxes have been opened but only about 50% of the votes have been counted. 

image.thumb.png.0d9479ba9dfe87c87b8db71ef280abce.png

 

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56 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

So this one is headed for OT?

Oh yes.

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

one note - the percentage they are showing is the percentage of "ballot boxes opened" (kind of like how we have total precincts reporting).

as of now 89% of the boxes have been opened but only about 50% of the votes have been counted. 

image.thumb.png.0d9479ba9dfe87c87b8db71ef280abce.png

 

So the reason why it was showing Erdogan as being ahead, is that any ballot/polling areas that are challenged cannot report their results, so Erdogan's allies are continuously demanding recounts while they try to figure out how bad it is.

 

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15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russians need Erdogan in there to keep playing games with Sweden, although it’s a moot point since Sweden integrated part of its military with NATO partners.

Erdogan has said he’ll approve Sweden after the election. He don’t give a fuck.

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This is a great sign...

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/15/business/argentina-interest-rates-inflation/index.html

The Central Bank of Argentina raised its key interest rate Monday by six percentage points to 97% in an effort to tackle soaring inflation that has reached 30-year highs.

Central banks across the globe are struggling to rein in inflation, but it’s a particular problem in Argentina, where the annual inflation rate soared above 100% last month.

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16 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Just saw a blurb that four members of the US Embassy in Nigeria were killed..

@InkaUtexas  know anybody down that way?

Not direct, but that is a hard country. 

And yes, BBC confirmed. two US Consular officers killed with two others. Could be the driver and interpreter. Embassies work with so many locals at all levels and they get overlooked. 

Sucks, may they all be in peace. 

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56 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Not direct, but that is a hard country. 

And yes, BBC confirmed. two US Consular officers killed with two others. Could be the driver and interpreter. Embassies work with so many locals at all levels and they get overlooked. 

Sucks, may they all be in peace. 

Clarification. Two non-US employees and two security personnel. No Americans. Still humans in service for the US and Nigeria. 

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Department of State comment on the attack. I am really surprised if there was not one American present. Odd that we would send only host country nationals to inspect a US project. 

Unknown assailants yesterday attacked a convoy of two U.S. government vehicles in the Ogbaru Local Government Area of Anambra state, Nigeria. The convoy was carrying nine Nigerian nationals: five employees of the U.S. Mission to Nigeria and four members of the Nigeria Police Force. They were traveling in advance of a planned visit by U.S. Mission personnel to a U.S.-funded flood response project in Anambra.

We do not yet know the motive for the attack, but we have no indications at this time that it was targeted against our Mission. The assailants killed at least four members of the convoy, and U.S. Mission personnel are working urgently with Nigerian counterparts to ascertain the location and condition of the members of the convoy who are unaccounted for.

We condemn in the strongest terms this attack. We will work closely with our Nigerian law enforcement colleagues in seeking to bring those responsible to justice.

The United States has no greater priority than the safety and security of our personnel. We express our heartfelt condolences to the families of those killed in the attack, and pledge to do everything possible to safely recover those who remain missing. We deeply value our relationship with our Locally Employed Staff and our partnership with Nigeria.

The United States reaffirms its commitment to the people of Nigeria to assist in the fight against violence and insecurity.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 5/28/2023 at 1:23 AM, atomheartbevo said:

Water rights.

 

So this is real. The amount of water diverted from the Helmand River was crazy. Add to that the creation of the Karjaki dam. South of Nimroz province is a salt flat that used to be a pretty cool wetland. 

Watch the Southern part of Iran. I really expect to see a Sunni led insurgency flare up and the Shia's in Afghanistan to get hammered by the Talibs. Herat is going to be lit. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

School attack in Uganda. Damn.... 

Kampala, UgandaCNN — 

Armed rebels attacked a school in western Uganda, killing at least 41 people, mostly students, and abducting six others, Ugandan officials have said. 

Some were hacked to death with machetes while others died when their dormitories were set on fire, military spokesman Felix Kulayigye told CNN.

About 20 members of the ISIS-linked Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebel group attacked the Lhubirira secondary school late on Friday, according to Uganda’s military. 

The school is situated along Uganda’s border with Congo in the town of Kasese, and educates children between the ages of 13 and 18. Of the dead, 39 were students and two were from the local community, local officials said.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/17/africa/uganda-school-attack-25-dead-intl-hnk/index.html

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 8/18/2022 at 3:37 PM, Humble Beast said:

How do you think we would stop Chinese exports? Physical blockade?
 

If Russia can re route their exports then I’m sure the #2 economy would manage. 

As far as what they import, I think if we try to sanction what they import, especially from other countries then we should expect a tit for tat there that will be extremely disruptive to the global economy and our economy. Acting like we’ll just sanction China and that will show them is naive imo. We depend on each other too much. Mutually assured destruction?
 

If we want to stop them from taking Taiwan when the time comes, we have to be ready to get our military involved directly. The Ukraine/Russia playbook will not work imo. 
 

That’s great, but now if you want to expel them it’s going to take a massive effort. Sanctions take time to take effect and don’t always have the effect you think they will. See: Russian income/current account, and Ruble strength.
 

Also, China can prepare for sanctions. We’ve telegraphed what we’ll do. I believe they have the largest grain stockpiles in the world. I shared the article a while back about new oil shipping tankers/routes that a mystery Chinese entity is creating. All I’m saying is if you think sanctions will be a meaningful deterrent or have a big effect on the outcome of any conflict with China I think you’re mistaken. 

What ruble strength doing? 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.07b77f67527774693e9ba84125ba3cd7.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Food prices up 65.9% in Egypt. Inflation at 35%. Ouch. 

Russia is trying to fuck around and find out by screwing with Ukrainian food shipments, which even if those shipments aren't headed to North Africa or the Middle East still affects prices and overall availability.  Their Wagner operations in various areas could go south really fast, as well as in Syria.

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On 7/10/2023 at 9:35 PM, atomheartbevo said:

Russia is trying to fuck around and find out by screwing with Ukrainian food shipments, which even if those shipments aren't headed to North Africa or the Middle East still affects prices and overall availability.  Their Wagner operations in various areas could go south really fast, as well as in Syria.

Except most of the leadership where Wagner is operating does not really give much care to their population. If they starve, they starve. food is a weapon across Africa. 

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Israel heating up as Netanyahu gets his pacemaker put in.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-752051

Quote

Some 10,000 reservists from throughout the IDF will no longer show up for service, they announced in a press conference on Saturday evening, according to N12.

These reservists are joining more than 1,000 Air Force reservists who made the same announcement in a letter on Friday.

Quote

"This is one of the most difficult evenings for the State of Israel, but it's also one of the most important in the state's history," said Brothers in Arms leader Eyal Neve. "We represent some 10,000 reservists who are telling the government, the defense minister and the prime minister the responsibility is on you! If you want us on your side as we've served under right and left wing governments, we are calling on you to stop the legislation."

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"I've served om the Air Force for 35 years," said a former fighter pilot. "The people in the force are my family, and this is a difficult day for us. The deep commitment to Judaism and democracy is the inner fuel of our engine. Our statement is clear: If the government violates the basic values and becomes a dictatorship, we won't serve."

Quote

"We are fighting for the dearest thing to us so that our kids can continue to live here," said another Brothers in Arms leader Ron Sheref. "This government is fighting against the state's values and against the spirit of the IDF. There is an incredible list here of people from all the units. Everyone here is the people of Israel who only want to go back to living in a democratic country without waking up every morning with someone threatening them and their basic values."

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 a group of former IDF, Israel Police, Mossad, and Shin Bet chiefs backed up the decision in a letter that was sent to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday.

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"We hold you accountable for the hard hit to the IDF and security in Israel," they wrote to Netanyahu. "Israel's government in your leadership is advancing legislation while completely ignoring the damage to Israeli democracy."

The reservists were also defended by former IDF chief of staff MK Gadi Eisenkot who said they weren't refusniks. He also voiced that he blames Netanyahu for the situation and added that reservists have the right to stop volunteering for service.

11,000 reservists may not seem like a big deal, but Israel is a country of 9 million, with reservists making up around 460,000 and if things continue, a lot more reservists will quit:

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Earlier this week, the IDF put out a statement saying that despite the reservists' protest, the army was still ready for war, but N12 reported on Saturday evening that IDF Chief of Staff said that if the reasonableness standard bill passes, the army's readiness will be significantly damaged within 48 hours. The IDF later denied this.

The bill:

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The "reasonableness standard bill" is an amendment to Basic Law: The Judiciary, that would block Israel's courts from applying what is known as the "reasonableness standard" to decisions made by elected officials. The reasonableness standard is a common law doctrine that allows for judicial review against government administrative decisions that are deemed beyond the scope of what a responsible and reasonable authority would undertake.

May not seem like a big deal, but a shitload of people have been protesting and if it is pushed through, may not be a full-on civil war, but a massive chunk of Israel will be in the streets, and the military will be impacted - there's only 170,000 Israelis on active-duty.

Israelis are extremely polarized over this.  It's seen by many as a coup against the judiciary by Netanyahu.

These are protests from the past few weeks, and just a few of the protests

545727

2023-07-08T191037Z_2063127520_RC27Z1AEMW

 

 

Edited by atomheartbevo
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