2018 Houston Astros Season Thread

[henrygandorf 28610]

it's still pretty early, but how's the 1st round of the 2015 draft looking for the stros so far?

bummer that we botched that whole aiken situation.  clearly we're suffering, per casey close's prediction.

someone get bregs a wheelbarrow.

[WBT 20131]

Nobody wants to play for us because of that 

[Rustic Horn 885]

it's still pretty early, but how's the 1st round of the 2015 draft looking for the stros so far?
bummer that we botched that whole aiken situation.  clearly we're suffering, per casey close's prediction.
someone get bregs a wheelbarrow.

[Gut Wagon 8017]

4 hours ago, Seasick Sailor said:

17-4 in our last 21 games. 

Not to worry. We’ll kick it into high gear before long. 

[APMP 684]

It was definitely the most packed ive seen a Wednesday afternoon game ever probably. And ive been coming to every single one for at least the past 3 seasons

I'm curious...have you had the same employer the past three seasons?

[UTexasFight 9288]

by the way, we ain't losing on June 27th

Pay this man his money.

[runthebone 7874]

4 hours ago, Rimbo said:

He's probably making a metric fuck-ton more on a mediocre BJ team than he ever would even as a top tennis player.

There's a team for receiving BJs?  How does one join?

[runthebone 7874]

 

 

4 hours ago, Rimbo said:

He's probably making a metric fuck-ton more on a mediocre BJ team than he ever would even as a top tennis player.

Double

Edited June 28, 2018 by runthebone

[Rustic Horn 885]

12 hours ago, Mez2 said:

by the way, we ain't losing on June 27th

👍

 

[WBT 20131]

On 6/26/2018 at 9:37 PM, WBT said:

Dat run differential 

 

[UTexasFight 9288]

Following up on that run diff post, here is an article in the Athletic yesterday about the Astros place as best follow up champion in recent history:

A while back in this space I did some research into whether or not there is such a thing as a World Series Hangover. Basically, the answer is no. Sixteen of the 22 defending champions since the 1996 Braves (because they won in 1995) finished their defending championship season above .500 and 12 made the playoffs. Generally, if you’re good enough to win the World Series, then you’re pretty good the following season. And then there are the 1998 Marlins.

Which brings us to the 2018 Houston Astros, who, after 81 games, are 53-28 with a +173 run differential. ESPN noted after Houston’s 7-0 win over Toronto on Tuesday night that the Astros’ run differential after 81 games is the fifth-best in American League history, and the best since the 1939 Yankees, who were 58-23 with a mind-boggling +230 run differential after 81 games (obviously not the halfway point of the 1939 baseball season). They would go 106-45 and sweep Cincinnati to win the 1939 World Series, their fourth in a row.

So to circle back around to this Defending World Series Champion theme, let’s take a look at the 2018 Astros’ place in recent history (1996 to present):

Team Record Run Differential Div. Rank
2018 Astros 53-28 +173 Up 3.5
2017 Cubs 40-41 +10 3.0 GB
2016 Royals 43-38 -14 6.0 GB
2015 Giants 42-39 +31 Up 3.5
2014 Red Sox 37-44 -36 7.0 GB
2013 Giants 39-42 -21 3.0 GB
2012 Cardinals 42-39 +62 2.5 GB
2011 Giants 46-35 +4 Up 2.5
2010 Yankees 50-31 +96 Up 1.5
2009 Phillies 43-38 +39 Up 2.0
2008 Red Sox 49-32 +70 Up 1.0
2007 Cardinals 38-43 -70 8.5 GB
2006 White Sox 53-28 +101 2.5 GB
2005 Red Sox 46-35 +46 Up 2.5
2004 Marlins 41-40 -12 2.0 GB
2003 Angels 41-40 +37 11.5 GB
2002 Diamondbacks 48-33 +57 2.5 GB
2001 Yankees 48-33 +73 Up 0.5
2000 Yankees 44-37 +39 Up 0.5
1999 Yankees 50-31 +60 Up 3.0
1998 Marlins 28-53 -110 24.5 GB
1997 Yankees 46-35 +78 7.5 GB
1996 Braves 51-30 +90 Up 4.0
The average record after 81 games is 45-36. Five of the 23 teams on this list – the 2017 Cubs, 2014 Red Sox, 2013 Giants, 2007 Cardinals, and the 1998 Marlins – were under .500 at the halfway mark. The five best records after 81 games, 1996-present:

2018 Astros / 2006 White Sox: 53-28
1996 Braves: 51-30
2010 Yankees / 1999 Yankees: 50-31
Sixteen of the teams on this list had a positive run differential and, prior to the 2018 Astros, the 2006 White Sox led the way with a +101. The 2016 Royals were an interesting case in that they were 43-38, but with a -14 run differential. The five best run differentials:

2018 Astros: +173
2006 White Sox: +101
2010 Yankees: +96
1996 Braves: +90
1997 Yankees: +78
That said, the 2018 Astros are tied with the 2006 White Sox for the best halfway-point record by a defending champion, at 53-28. But the Astros obliterate the run differential, outscoring their opponents by 72 runs more than the second-best on the list and over double the run differential of the fifth highest.

Of course, a team’s place in its division counts on factors outside of that team’s control. The 2017 Astros were 54-27 with a 13.5-game lead in the AL West. The 2018 Astros are 53-28 but with only a 3.5-game lead in the division. That said, 12 of the 23 teams on the list were not leading their division after 81 games. Six of those teams were 5.0 games back or more. The largest division lead after 81 games belongs to the 1996 Braves, who led the NL East by 4.0 games. The 2018 Astros and 2015 Giants are next with a 3.5-game lead.

While this is not an exercise in finding the best team of the last 23 seasons and debating the 2018 Astros place in that list, we can see that the Astros are positioning themselves as one of the best championship-season follow-up teams in recent history

[Scraps 13461]

I'm curious...have you had the same employer the past three seasons?

Yes. 10 yrs. I work half a day and take 4 hrs vacation

[runthebone 7874]

Didn't see this posted yet:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2018/06/26/astros-are-on-pace-to-be-one-of-the-most-dominant-teams-in-mlb-history/

Astros are on pace to be one of the most dominant teams in MLB history

By Neil Greenberg

Spoiler

The Houston Astros are doing a fine job defending their World Series title. The American League West division leaders are 52-28 with claims to being the best hitting and pitching team in baseball this season. As a team they are batting .264 — tied with the Boston Red Sox for best in the majors in 2018 — with a .771 OPS (third), creating runs at a rate 16 percent higher than average after accounting for league and park effects (116 wRC+). The New York Yankees are second-best at 14 percent. Houston’s starting rotation is the only one with a collective ERA under 3.00 this season and its bullpen is there, too, with a 2.70 ERA, the second-best among major league teams. Even its fielding is stellar, saving 25 runs through 80 games, the fifth-best mark in 2018.

It’s also possible the Astros win-loss record isn’t a true reflection of how good this team is. Based on their Pythagorean win percentage, which uses a team’s runs scored and allowed to derive how many games a team should win and lose, a team like Houston, which has 412 runs scored and 246 runs allowed, would be expected to have a 58-22 record, six more wins than they have heading into Tuesday night’s games. Take things a step further and use the Astros’ BaseRuns win percentage, a third-order winning percentage which takes into account a team’s performance without considering the sequencing to calculate expected runs scored and runs allowed, and Houston should be 54-26 based on its plus-166 run differential, which is also the best in baseball. The Boston Red Sox, by comparison, are second (plus-112) and the Yankees are third (plus-102), showing just how dominant the Astros have been in the early goings of 2018.

Run differential is simply the difference in runs scored versus runs allowed throughout the season. It’s not a perfect barometer of a team’s strength, but it does provide a good idea of which teams are winning decisively and which are squeaking by. And Houston, by outscoring opponents by over two runs a game, is on pace to be the most dominating team in since the introduction of the designated hitter in 1973. Since that time, no team has ever finished the season with a run differential per game higher than the 1998 New York Yankees, a team that averaged 1.91 runs more per game than their opponents. The 2001 Seattle Mariners (1.85) and 1995 Cleveland Indians (1.62) are second and third, respectively. If Houston can keep the momentum going, it will have accomplished something extraordinary.

And there is no reason to expect a slowdown anytime soon. Based on the team’s exit velocity and launch angle of balls put in play, the Astros are performing almost exactly as we would expect them to. Their expected batting average (.257) is not much lower than how they are actually performing at the plate (.264) and neither is their slugging percentage (.435 actual vs. 434 expected). Houston also doesn’t strike out often (20 percent, fourth-best) nor does it, as a team, chase many pitches out of the strike zone.

(TruMedia)

Second baseman Jose Altuve, the reigning AL MVP, leads the league in batting average (.343) with an .892 OPS, 55 percent higher than average after adjusting for league and park effects. His overall stats have taken a dip from last season, but based on his quality of contact and how hard he is hitting the ball, Altuve has room to improve. For example, players with his average exit velocity (88.6 mph) and launch angle (11 degrees) are expected to produce a slugging rate of .523, higher than Altuve’s actual rate of .491.

(TruMedia)

It’s unlikely the entire pitching staff can maintain its league-low 2.85 ERA, but even after adjusting that for league average results on balls in play and league average timing, also known as Fielding Independent Pitching, they would still have the lowest FIP in the majors this year (3.15), with an expected FIP — which replaces a pitcher’s home run total with an estimate of how many home runs they should have allowed given the number of fly balls they surrendered while assuming a league average home run to flyball percentage — not much higher (3.25). In other words, this is no fluke: Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers Jr. and Charlie Morton are every bit as good as their stats say they are.

Verlander has been particularly good, and the rejuvenation of his four-seam fastball has been a key to his success. His vertical release point on the pitch is higher and, as a result, it is generating more vertical movement. His strike rate on the pitch this season is 76 percent and 42 percent of those are called strikes, both career highs.

He’s also using his fastball more aggressively — over 63 percent of his four-seam fastballs are in the strike zone, eclipsing his previous career high of 53 percent set last season.

Justin Verlander’s four-seam fastball (TruMedia)

As you can see, the Astros are good and look every bit the part of a champion capable of defending their crown. According to FanGraphs, Houston has a 26 percent chance to win the 2018 World Series, almost the double the estimate for the Yankees (15 percent) and significantly higher than the Cleveland Indians (11 percent) and Dodgers (11 percent). And with room to improve, those projections might be a bit low.

 

[tx 3 putt 74768]

Keep racking up W's !

 

bur seriously, Bregman's trade value has to be pretty damn right about now. just saying 

[Rimbo 25212]

3 hours ago, runthebone said:

There's a team for receiving BJs?  How does one join?

move to canada

[Guest]

MJ Team?

[Gut Wagon 8017]

7 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

Following up on that run diff post, here is an article in the Athletic yesterday about the Astros place as best follow up champion in recent history:

A while back in this space I did some research into whether or not there is such a thing as a World Series Hangover. Basically, the answer is no. Sixteen of the 22 defending champions since the 1996 Braves (because they won in 1995) finished their defending championship season above .500 and 12 made the playoffs. Generally, if you’re good enough to win the World Series, then you’re pretty good the following season. And then there are the 1998 Marlins.

Which brings us to the 2018 Houston Astros, who, after 81 games, are 53-28 with a +173 run differential. ESPN noted after Houston’s 7-0 win over Toronto on Tuesday night that the Astros’ run differential after 81 games is the fifth-best in American League history, and the best since the 1939 Yankees, who were 58-23 with a mind-boggling +230 run differential after 81 games (obviously not the halfway point of the 1939 baseball season). They would go 106-45 and sweep Cincinnati to win the 1939 World Series, their fourth in a row.

So to circle back around to this Defending World Series Champion theme, let’s take a look at the 2018 Astros’ place in recent history (1996 to present):

Team Record Run Differential Div. Rank
2018 Astros 53-28 +173 Up 3.5
2017 Cubs 40-41 +10 3.0 GB
2016 Royals 43-38 -14 6.0 GB
2015 Giants 42-39 +31 Up 3.5
2014 Red Sox 37-44 -36 7.0 GB
2013 Giants 39-42 -21 3.0 GB
2012 Cardinals 42-39 +62 2.5 GB
2011 Giants 46-35 +4 Up 2.5
2010 Yankees 50-31 +96 Up 1.5
2009 Phillies 43-38 +39 Up 2.0
2008 Red Sox 49-32 +70 Up 1.0
2007 Cardinals 38-43 -70 8.5 GB
2006 White Sox 53-28 +101 2.5 GB
2005 Red Sox 46-35 +46 Up 2.5
2004 Marlins 41-40 -12 2.0 GB
2003 Angels 41-40 +37 11.5 GB
2002 Diamondbacks 48-33 +57 2.5 GB
2001 Yankees 48-33 +73 Up 0.5
2000 Yankees 44-37 +39 Up 0.5
1999 Yankees 50-31 +60 Up 3.0
1998 Marlins 28-53 -110 24.5 GB
1997 Yankees 46-35 +78 7.5 GB
1996 Braves 51-30 +90 Up 4.0
The average record after 81 games is 45-36. Five of the 23 teams on this list – the 2017 Cubs, 2014 Red Sox, 2013 Giants, 2007 Cardinals, and the 1998 Marlins – were under .500 at the halfway mark. The five best records after 81 games, 1996-present:

2018 Astros / 2006 White Sox: 53-28
1996 Braves: 51-30
2010 Yankees / 1999 Yankees: 50-31
Sixteen of the teams on this list had a positive run differential and, prior to the 2018 Astros, the 2006 White Sox led the way with a +101. The 2016 Royals were an interesting case in that they were 43-38, but with a -14 run differential. The five best run differentials:

2018 Astros: +173
2006 White Sox: +101
2010 Yankees: +96
1996 Braves: +90
1997 Yankees: +78
That said, the 2018 Astros are tied with the 2006 White Sox for the best halfway-point record by a defending champion, at 53-28. But the Astros obliterate the run differential, outscoring their opponents by 72 runs more than the second-best on the list and over double the run differential of the fifth highest.

Of course, a team’s place in its division counts on factors outside of that team’s control. The 2017 Astros were 54-27 with a 13.5-game lead in the AL West. The 2018 Astros are 53-28 but with only a 3.5-game lead in the division. That said, 12 of the 23 teams on the list were not leading their division after 81 games. Six of those teams were 5.0 games back or more. The largest division lead after 81 games belongs to the 1996 Braves, who led the NL East by 4.0 games. The 2018 Astros and 2015 Giants are next with a 3.5-game lead.

While this is not an exercise in finding the best team of the last 23 seasons and debating the 2018 Astros place in that list, we can see that the Astros are positioning themselves as one of the best championship-season follow-up teams in recent history

Impressive numbers. While it’s easy to lament that the W-L record isn’t even better - the run differential and individual game breakdowns suggest we could easily be on a pace to win 120 - the fact is we’ve had great overall offensive production despite getting less than might be expected from some hitters.

Had any of Reddick, Correa, Springer or Gonzalez been hitting the way they all have at times in the past, the run differential could be crowding 200. 

[mycox 582]

12 hours ago, runthebone said:

There's a team for receiving BJs?  How does one join?

Go to the Rangers. Nevermind, that's handjobs

[TonyTexas 10378]

Yuli goes on paternity leave. Reed is called up. Team needs Correa to be ready to play

[Planet Houston 4918]

54 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Yuli goes on paternity leave. Reed is called up. Team needs Correa to be ready to play

Congrats to Yuli for his impending arrival!

[Rimbo 25212]

14 hours ago, runthebone said:

There's a team for receiving BJs?  How does one join?

wheelbarrows

[UTexasFight 9288]

I fully expect Reed to up some trade value over the next week.
Seriously.

[Rimbo 25212]

1 hour ago, mycox said:

Go to the Rangers. Nevermind, that's handjobs

Also, that's giving, not receiving

[Planet Houston 4918]

8 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Also, that's giving, not receiving

When they're all named Rougned Odor, how can you tell who is giving and who is receiving?

[Mez2 4010]

side note - my wife and I are heading up to Ft Worth this weekend to hang out and our boys are playing in Arlington for a brief 2 game set. Fortunately, I've never been to Globe  whatever ballpark for a rangers game so wanted to see if you guys could fill me in on any details or things to know about there prior to. we don't have tickets yet, any sections better than others? what about pregame things to do, anywhere to go, tailagte or whatever? bringing stuff into the stadium - besides my flask?

appreciate the responses. 

[UTexasFight 9288]

side note - my wife and I are heading up to Ft Worth this weekend to hang out and our boys are playing in Arlington for a brief 2 game set. Fortunately, I've never been to Globe  whatever ballpark for a rangers game so wanted to see if you guys could fill me in on any details or things to know about there prior to. we don't have tickets yet, any sections better than others? what about pregame things to do, anywhere to go, tailagte or whatever? bringing stuff into the stadium - besides my flask?
appreciate the responses. 

Astros dugout is on the 3rd base side.
Astros bullpen is in LF if you want to be near either of those.
Should be plenty of tailgate spots. There is a lot more info about tailgating on the Rangers website
I don’t recall there being too many bars too terribly close.

Prepare yourself for the south Oklahoma vibe/feel. It is real and dirty.

[Scraps 13461]

You're gonna die from heat stroke. Nice knowing you.

[Mez2 4010]

nevermind

Edited June 28, 2018 by Mez2

[MAROON 442]

3 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

Yuli goes on paternity leave.

I blame our analytics guys for this 

[UTexasFight 9288]

Playing in Tampa tonight
I remember the last time we played there.
FTR (and Harvey)

[Viper 11918]

All I know is that Correa better have kept it wrapped up in February. 

[UTexasFight 9288]

All I know is that Correa better have kept it wrapped up in February. 

QFT...

[HoustonFrog 368]

Going to a Rangers game is a miserable experience for most of the season.... just stupid hot and ugly setting in Arlington. Fortunately they are fixing the problem in coming years but it will never have the awesome downtown setting that MMP has

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

 

[UTexasFight 9288]

First White, now Reed.
Guessing Davis when glass boy gets retroactively put on the DL...
Starting to look like the Houston Grizzlies.

[kevwun 15189]

You know when Correa does finally knock up his old lady that he will end up on the DL with sympathetic labor pains at some point.

Edited June 28, 2018 by kevwun

[UTexasFight 9288]

This thread is brutal....


But truth hurts

[henrygandorf 28610]

can someone explain the june 27th significance?

 

[UTHornFan014 706]

DJ Screw

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

19 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

can someone explain the june 27th significance?

 

 

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

35 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

First White, now Reed.
Guessing Davis when glass boy gets retroactively put on the DL...
Starting to look like the Houston Grizzlies.

And here it is:

 

[Johnny Sack 8397]

58 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

Going to a Rangers game is a miserable experience for most of the season.... just stupid hot and ugly setting in Arlington. Fortunately they are fixing the problem in coming years but it will never have the awesome downtown setting that MMP has

But in Arlington you can hit up a Chilis or Flingers pre-game.

[tx 3 putt 74768]

get seats towards the top, it'll provide some shade 

 

that stadium sucks. 

 

[Gut Wagon 8017]

29 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

And here it is:

 

My '73 MGB was much lower maintenance than Correa. 

[HoustonFrog 368]

Love having him, but he certainly isn't hitting anything close to "greatest of all time" talk. Hope he recovers and has a healthy year at some point. 

[tx 3 putt 74768]

Reed has to know that his time to shine, hope he's up to the task 

 

[UTexasFight 9288]

Not sure Davis makes sense to call up but let’s go with it:
3B: Bregs/Davis/Marwin
SS: Marwin/Bregs
1B: White/Davis/Reed

Hinch is gonna have a field day

[Johnny Sack 8397]

Marwin should play third and Bregman short.  Until CC is back.

[Mez2 4010]

Bob Sanders. 

I kid, mostly

[RegularSizedRudy 36]

 

4 hours ago, Mez2 said:

side note - my wife and I are heading up to Ft Worth this weekend to hang out and our boys are playing in Arlington for a brief 2 game set. Fortunately, I've never been to Globe  whatever ballpark for a rangers game so wanted to see if you guys could fill me in on any details or things to know about there prior to. we don't have tickets yet, any sections better than others? what about pregame things to do, anywhere to go, tailagte or whatever? bringing stuff into the stadium - besides my flask?

appreciate the responses. 

I usually hit up the Humperdinks for pregame and use their shuttle as it was cheaper than paying for parking (at least as of last Sept it was). If you want shade early, the first base side is the way to go. If the breeze is down, be prepared to just bake and be miserable, even in the shade. My personal rule is to avoid any and all games there between June and September as its hell on earth there.