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Posted (edited)

Mark Etheridge of D1Baseball.com laid out what SEC teams in the hosting mix need to do to secure a top 8 or top 16

Spoiler

Looking at the host contenders:

This time of year, we frequently get the question, “How many games does my team need to win to get in, host, or be a top eight?” The unsatisfying answer is to perform well enough to be evaluated higher than the other teams you are being compared against. While that’s true, I’ll try to give a more definitive answer, with the caveat that unpredictable results will occur, which sends some of these figures askew.

Texas – At 19-5 in SEC action, the Longhorns could lose the last six SEC games and still host. Of course, that would mean Texas lost its final nine SEC games, which would impact its seeding and potentially cost it a top eight. Otherwise, the Horns have nothing to worry about. With the top-rated RPI and series wins over Georgia, Auburn, LSU, Texas A&M, Kentucky, and Mississippi State, the resume remains in line for the top overall seed with a strong finish.

Arkansas – The Razorbacks are 17-7 in SEC play and coming off the sweep over Texas as they head to LSU. It’s a number five RPI and second place in the standings. Two challenging weekends remain as the Hogs host Tennessee in the finale. At this point, 2-4 might be enough to keep the top eight, but that would make them vulnerable. Splitting the last six should do the trick.

LSU—The Tigers have a top-eight RPI and a 15-9 conference record, with a monster series with Arkansas and a visit to South Carolina remaining. I suspect 3-3 will keep them in the top eight, but 4-2 will secure it should pandemonium occur. LSU would likely have to collapse (0-6) to miss hosting.

Georgia—The Bulldogs are 15-9 in SEC play and have the second-rated RPI, down from number one after Texas’s win over Lamar Tuesday. The Bulldogs close at Alabama and at home versus Texas A&M. That seems like a pair of toss-up series. If we assume 3-3, I feel Georgia will be fine. Anything less than that, and the Dogs will need help to remain in the top eight. Georgia would likely have to collapse (0-6) to miss hosting.

Auburn – The Tigers have the #3 RPI and a 13-11 SEC mark so there is work to do to secure a host. They host South Carolina this weekend and close at Ole Miss. A 3-3 finish would them in the hosting mix while winning one more game keeps them in the top eight hunt. A 5-1 finish secures a top eight.

Vanderbilt—The Commodores have the #4 RPI and a 14-10 SEC mark—and that’s without playing Missouri or South Carolina, which should work in their favor with the committee. Vandy visits Tennessee and hosts Kentucky. Certainly, 3-3 seems the most likely outcome, which would secure a host and have them in the mix for a top eight. A 2-4 finish makes them vulnerable hosts. Going 4-2 removes the doubt for a top eight.

Tennessee—The Vols have a #13 RPI and are 14-10 in SEC play. The schedule is tough, as they host Vanderbilt and visit Arkansas. Splitting the six seems likely, and that would keep them as a host but probably not be enough for a top eight. Win both series, and a top eight is back in play. Lose both, and that would be six series losses out of the last seven, and the Vols would be vulnerable to receiving a host.

Alabama—The Crimson Tide’s RPI is 12, and the SEC mark is in range at 13-11. They finish at home vs. Georgia and visit Florida. Going 3-3 would put them on the host border, and they would need some help around the country. A 4-2 finish earns Bama a host. Going 2-4 does not.

Oklahoma – The Sooners are within striking range at RPI #22 and 13-11. OU closes at Kentucky and at home versus Texas. Win both series, and I think they host. Split the six games, and it likely won’t be enough.

Ole Miss—The Rebels are 13-11 and have a #16 RPI, putting them in range with a strong finish at Mississippi State and at home versus Auburn. They should host if the Rebels win both series to get to 17-13 with that RPI. Anything less is problematic.

 

Edited by Hookem2147
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted (edited)

Need that Florida offense to head to Austin.  
 

and I think it’s interesting that we may be vulnerable to dropping out of the top 8 if we finish 19-11 because it would mean losing our last 9, while the teams behind us are predicted to be probably in at 18-12 and definitely in at 19-11.  
i get the differentiation, but schedules are not the same so you should take the entirety of it and not weight the last third higher because they occur closer to tournament selection.  

Edited by Pato del Muerto
Posted
7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Need that Florida offense to head to Austin.  
 

and I think it’s interesting that we may be vulnerable to dropping out of the top 8 if we finish 19-11 because it would mean losing our last 9, while the teams behind us are predicted to be probably in at 18-12 and definitely in at 19-11.  
i get the differentiation, but schedules are not the same so you should take the entirety of it and not weight the last third higher because they occur closer to tournament selection.  

Feels like the same thing happens in basketball every year too where a regular season win over a middle of the pack conference opponent in late February feels so much bigger than a victory against a similar opponent in the Bahamas in November.

I guess human nature is to see games in May as more important than games in March, but they count the same in the standings.

Posted

Etheridge didn’t say this in the blurb, but if we finished 19-11, I could understand that a 3-9 post-Spencer record would hold more weight for seeding than it does in the standings. 

 

Also I want to self-correct a post I made a couple weeks ago that Farmer was batting .300 in conference play. I misread the stat. I think the correct number was .255 then and the current number is .240. 

That was part of the discussion about whether Jonah would stay in the lineup when Belyeu returns. I’ve changed my mind on that - I think he does stay now. The part of that discussion that has (unfortunately) gotten more interesting is whether it’s strictly Farmer that would be replaced or if there are other guys like Borba that find themselves in that conversation. 

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