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Posted (edited)

Mark Etheridge of D1Baseball.com laid out what SEC teams in the hosting mix need to do to secure a top 8 or top 16

Spoiler

Looking at the host contenders:

This time of year, we frequently get the question, “How many games does my team need to win to get in, host, or be a top eight?” The unsatisfying answer is to perform well enough to be evaluated higher than the other teams you are being compared against. While that’s true, I’ll try to give a more definitive answer, with the caveat that unpredictable results will occur, which sends some of these figures askew.

Texas – At 19-5 in SEC action, the Longhorns could lose the last six SEC games and still host. Of course, that would mean Texas lost its final nine SEC games, which would impact its seeding and potentially cost it a top eight. Otherwise, the Horns have nothing to worry about. With the top-rated RPI and series wins over Georgia, Auburn, LSU, Texas A&M, Kentucky, and Mississippi State, the resume remains in line for the top overall seed with a strong finish.

Arkansas – The Razorbacks are 17-7 in SEC play and coming off the sweep over Texas as they head to LSU. It’s a number five RPI and second place in the standings. Two challenging weekends remain as the Hogs host Tennessee in the finale. At this point, 2-4 might be enough to keep the top eight, but that would make them vulnerable. Splitting the last six should do the trick.

LSU—The Tigers have a top-eight RPI and a 15-9 conference record, with a monster series with Arkansas and a visit to South Carolina remaining. I suspect 3-3 will keep them in the top eight, but 4-2 will secure it should pandemonium occur. LSU would likely have to collapse (0-6) to miss hosting.

Georgia—The Bulldogs are 15-9 in SEC play and have the second-rated RPI, down from number one after Texas’s win over Lamar Tuesday. The Bulldogs close at Alabama and at home versus Texas A&M. That seems like a pair of toss-up series. If we assume 3-3, I feel Georgia will be fine. Anything less than that, and the Dogs will need help to remain in the top eight. Georgia would likely have to collapse (0-6) to miss hosting.

Auburn – The Tigers have the #3 RPI and a 13-11 SEC mark so there is work to do to secure a host. They host South Carolina this weekend and close at Ole Miss. A 3-3 finish would them in the hosting mix while winning one more game keeps them in the top eight hunt. A 5-1 finish secures a top eight.

Vanderbilt—The Commodores have the #4 RPI and a 14-10 SEC mark—and that’s without playing Missouri or South Carolina, which should work in their favor with the committee. Vandy visits Tennessee and hosts Kentucky. Certainly, 3-3 seems the most likely outcome, which would secure a host and have them in the mix for a top eight. A 2-4 finish makes them vulnerable hosts. Going 4-2 removes the doubt for a top eight.

Tennessee—The Vols have a #13 RPI and are 14-10 in SEC play. The schedule is tough, as they host Vanderbilt and visit Arkansas. Splitting the six seems likely, and that would keep them as a host but probably not be enough for a top eight. Win both series, and a top eight is back in play. Lose both, and that would be six series losses out of the last seven, and the Vols would be vulnerable to receiving a host.

Alabama—The Crimson Tide’s RPI is 12, and the SEC mark is in range at 13-11. They finish at home vs. Georgia and visit Florida. Going 3-3 would put them on the host border, and they would need some help around the country. A 4-2 finish earns Bama a host. Going 2-4 does not.

Oklahoma – The Sooners are within striking range at RPI #22 and 13-11. OU closes at Kentucky and at home versus Texas. Win both series, and I think they host. Split the six games, and it likely won’t be enough.

Ole Miss—The Rebels are 13-11 and have a #16 RPI, putting them in range with a strong finish at Mississippi State and at home versus Auburn. They should host if the Rebels win both series to get to 17-13 with that RPI. Anything less is problematic.

 

Edited by Hookem2147
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted (edited)

Need that Florida offense to head to Austin.  
 

and I think it’s interesting that we may be vulnerable to dropping out of the top 8 if we finish 19-11 because it would mean losing our last 9, while the teams behind us are predicted to be probably in at 18-12 and definitely in at 19-11.  
i get the differentiation, but schedules are not the same so you should take the entirety of it and not weight the last third higher because they occur closer to tournament selection.  

Edited by Pato del Muerto
Posted
7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Need that Florida offense to head to Austin.  
 

and I think it’s interesting that we may be vulnerable to dropping out of the top 8 if we finish 19-11 because it would mean losing our last 9, while the teams behind us are predicted to be probably in at 18-12 and definitely in at 19-11.  
i get the differentiation, but schedules are not the same so you should take the entirety of it and not weight the last third higher because they occur closer to tournament selection.  

Feels like the same thing happens in basketball every year too where a regular season win over a middle of the pack conference opponent in late February feels so much bigger than a victory against a similar opponent in the Bahamas in November.

I guess human nature is to see games in May as more important than games in March, but they count the same in the standings.

Posted

Etheridge didn’t say this in the blurb, but if we finished 19-11, I could understand that a 3-9 post-Spencer record would hold more weight for seeding than it does in the standings. 

 

Also I want to self-correct a post I made a couple weeks ago that Farmer was batting .300 in conference play. I misread the stat. I think the correct number was .255 then and the current number is .240. 

That was part of the discussion about whether Jonah would stay in the lineup when Belyeu returns. I’ve changed my mind on that - I think he does stay now. The part of that discussion that has (unfortunately) gotten more interesting is whether it’s strictly Farmer that would be replaced or if there are other guys like Borba that find themselves in that conversation. 

Posted

Tonights only SEC conference action has Auburn hosting USC-least for a Thursday-Saturday series. Auburn is one loss or one Texas win away from being eliminated from SEC title consideration.

Posted
28 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Ike Irish has all 24 rbi's

That scrub?

There were like two guys with more RBI's than his paltry and pedestrian 2-4, 4 RBI and 1 HR night.

Spoiler

image.thumb.png.c436a1ecb6beb2d067a69928755bdcd2.png

 

Posted
1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

So, we need LSU to take the series over Arky?  I don't think it matters if it's 3-0 or 2-1.  Somebody smarter than me check that.

We control our own destiny. We win out, or win out with one loss, we are SEC champions.  After that we need LSU/TENNESSEE to pick up the slack against Arkansas. If we lose games we need Georgia/ATM/Tennessee to help us with LSU and then someone to help us with Georgia, etc.



 

Posted
3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

So, we need LSU to take the series over Arky?  I don't think it matters if it's 3-0 or 2-1.  Somebody smarter than me check that.

We don't need any scenario here if we win out.  But, any Arky loss is helpful.  LSU going 3-0, 2-1 or 1-2 is good for us.

Posted
14 minutes ago, Texas Fight said:

We don't need any scenario here if we win out.  But, any Arky loss is helpful.  LSU going 3-0, 2-1 or 1-2 is good for us.

LSU 3-0:  LSU 18-9, Arky 17-10

LSU 2-1:  LSU 17-10, Arky 18-9

LSU 1-2:  LSU 16-11, Arky 19-8

LSU 0-3:  LSU 15-12, Arky 20-7

 

I fail to see how the latter two scenarios aren't anything but worse than the first two.  Basically, all we can hope for is one team to be at 18-9.  If LSU wins the series, that happens.  If they don't, it doesn't.

Posted
2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

LSU 3-0:  LSU 18-9, Arky 17-10

LSU 2-1:  LSU 17-10, Arky 18-9

LSU 1-2:  LSU 16-11, Arky 19-8

LSU 0-3:  LSU 15-12, Arky 20-7

 

I fail to see how the latter two scenarios aren't anything but worse than the first two.  Basically, all we can hope for is one team to be at 18-9.  If LSU wins the series, that happens.  If they don't, it doesn't.

We only have 5 SEC losses.  There are 6 SEC games left. We have a 2 game lead over Arkansas.

We don't NEED any those scenarios.  What we want are any Arky losses.  1, 2, or 3 losses is good for us.  Obviously 3 losses is better for us than 0 losses but each loss gives us more room for error.  We don't need Arky to lose any, as long as we only lose 1 game in the next two weekends.

Posted

Arkansas closes with Tennessee and LSU closes with South Carolina, so probably best case is LSU goes 2-1 since they might sweep SC.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Yesh said:

Arkansas closes with Tennessee and LSU closes with South Carolina, so probably best case is LSU goes 2-1 since they might sweep SC.

Yes.  If LSU wins out, we would need to go 3-3 for outright, or 2-4 to share.  We have H2H over them for whatever that is worth.

Posted
24 minutes ago, Texas Fight said:

What we want are any Arky losses.  1, 2, or 3 losses is good for us. 

If Arky goes 2-1 against LSU they're at 19-8.  If LSU wins the series, one of those teams is at 18-9, and the other is at 17-10.  How do you equate those two?  Arky only losing 1 tightens the race. 

Yes, we control our own destiny.  We are also missing our ace and we played like shit last weekend.

Posted
6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

If Arky goes 2-1 against LSU they're at 19-8.  If LSU wins the series, one of those teams is at 18-9, and the other is at 17-10.  How do you equate those two?  Arky only losing 1 tightens the race. 

Yes, we control our own destiny.  We are also missing our ace and we played like shit last weekend.

I do not think he's equating them - I think he's just stating that any Arkansas losses are good for us (2-3 losses are better than 1, but 1 is still better than 0).

Posted
2 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

(2-3 losses are better than 1, but 1 is still better than 0).

Sure, an Arky 2-1 series win is better for us than a 3-0 Arky series win.  Both are worse than an LSU series win, whether it's 2-1 or 3-0.

Posted
2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Arky only losing 1 tightens the race. 

Huh? How does it tighten the race?

If Texas goes 3-0 it is IMPOSSIBLE for the race to get any tighter. If Texas goes 2-1 and Arkansas goes 2-1 the race is not any tighter. In fact, it makes it even harder for Arkansas to win because there will only be 3 games left.

Posted
23 minutes ago, Texas Fight said:

Huh? How does it tighten the race?

If Texas goes 3-0 it is IMPOSSIBLE for the race to get any tighter. If Texas goes 2-1 and Arkansas goes 2-1 the race is not any tighter. In fact, it makes it even harder for Arkansas to win because there will only be 3 games left.

I'm not making any assumptions about what we do against Florida.  I've made no statements about that.  We simply want LSU to win that series, period.  Those are the only games I'm talking about.

I want every conference member not named "Texas" to have the most losses possible.  Why is this so hard for you?  Why would you say it's cool if Arky ends up 19-8 after this weekend instead of 18-9 (or 17-10, in which case LSU will be 18-9)?

Yes, what we do will matter.  Big fucking revelation there.

Posted
8 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm not making any assumptions about what we do against Florida.  I've made no statements about that.  We simply want LSU to win that series, period.  Those are the only games I'm talking about.

I want every conference member not named "Texas" to have the most losses possible.  Why is this so hard for you?  Why would you say it's cool if Arky ends up 19-8 after this weekend instead of 18-9 (or 17-10, in which case LSU will be 18-9)?

Yes, what we do will matter.  Big fucking revelation there.

I didn’t start this. You asked people who were smarter than you with math on what we NEED.
 

Another poster said we control our own destiny and you said you didn’t hint towards that. I also tried to show you we don’t NEED anything, that that 3, 2, or 1 losses by Arkansas would be helpful for us. Another poster said the same. You then double down and say that Arkansas going 2-1 somehow tightens the race, clearly not understanding that the race can’t tighten just based on what Arkansas does. Finally, to triple down, you now define our NEEDS to what is COOL.

Here is my final summary using your terms:

We don’t NEED any other team to do anything. We NEED to go 5-1. For this weekend, every Arkansas loss 3, 2, 1, or 0 you can adjust our NEED accordingly.  So, it would be COOL if Arkansas lost 3, 2, or 1 games, but we don’t NEED them to.

Posted
6 minutes ago, Texas Fight said:

I didn’t start this. You asked people who were smarter than you with math on what we NEED.
 

Another poster said we control our own destiny and you said you didn’t hint towards that. I also tried to show you we don’t NEED anything, that that 3, 2, or 1 losses by Arkansas would be helpful for us. Another poster said the same. You then double down and say that Arkansas going 2-1 somehow tightens the race, clearly not understanding that the race can’t tighten just based on what Arkansas does. Finally, to triple down, you now define our NEEDS to what is COOL.

Here is my final summary using your terms:

We don’t NEED any other team to do anything. We NEED to go 5-1. For this weekend, every Arkansas loss 3, 2, 1, or 0 you can adjust our NEED accordingly.  So, it would be COOL if Arkansas lost 3, 2, or 1 games, but we don’t NEED them to.

LMAO.  OK, i used the word "need" in my initial post when I should have said "want".  We WANT LSU to win this series.  2-1 or 3-0 doesn't matter one bit.  That only affects which team is 18-9 and which is 17-10.  Happy now?

As it turns out, my math was right.

Posted

*** all that being said, I think I'd prefer Arky at 18-9 and LSU at 17-10, given the fact that Arky plays UTenn the next weekend whereas LSU plays the 'cocks.  And then there's Georgia . . .

Posted

Too bad that South Carolina and Missouri don't play each other this season.


They could have a Battle for the Basement. USC would still finish ahead of the Tigers in the standings, but if Missouri pulled off a series win somehow, they could feel better.

At least Missouri might get a SEC win.

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