Hey Oil Barons.......

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Would someone please translate this for me?  Are brokerages afraid their clients can't cover margin calls?  And what's the significance of this?  With some folks on "Sell only," will it be enough to drive prices down?

TD Ameritrade told customers it would only allow closing trades in June and July U.S. crude futures contracts as well as in all U.S. crude options contracts.

“We made this decision based on the volatility and liquidity in the crude markets over the last week. This allows those markets to continue to return to their prior liquidity and volatility levels,” said J.B. Mackenzie, managing director in futures and forex at TD Ameritrade.

Two other brokerages, London-based Marex Spectron and INTL FCStone, said they were limiting new positions being taken up after the high-volatility trading on Monday delivered big losses to holders of that contract.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-brokerages-idUSKCN2253P6

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the nation’s largest lender, suspended sales of more products that allowed retail investors to speculate on swings in commodities after many were burnt by the unprecedented crash in crude oil.

The lender will temporarily halt opening of new positions in products linked to crude oil, natural gas, and soybeans for individuals from 9 a.m. tomorrow, according to a statement on Monday. ICBC said the suspension is to protect clients’ interests due to the recent volatility in commodities.

The move comes after a product linked to oil, sold by rival Bank of China Co., lead to more than $1 billion in losses for clients after falling below zero, suggesting there’s a hidden pocket of risk in the system. Official figures show there are about 1.88 billion yuan ($265 million) in outstanding in commodity-related investment vehicles, making up less than 0.01% of China’s wealth product market.

The implosion of Bank of China’s “Crude Oil Treasure” caused an uproar among investors, who have taken to the Internet to protest the lender’s handling of the contract rollover and to demand it shoulder some of the losses. Investors in similar products offered by other banks mostly avoided that type of loss due to different designs.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-27/china-s-biggest-bank-halts-swath-of-commodities-retail-products?__twitter_impression=true

Yes brokerages are CTA. 

The bigger story is that The Chinese took it up the ass on WTI futures way more than domestic speculators did last week. 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

On 4/25/2020 at 12:12 PM, Storm the Field said:

Another 64 rigs down. Total rig count now stands at 465 (378 oil/85 gas), down 525 since the same week last year. That's the 2nd lowest amount of gas rigs recorded since Baker Hughes started keeping track in July 1987. 

Have pretty steadily dropped 60-70 rigs each week since the price crash during the 2nd week of March. At this rate, we should bottom out ~250 by Memorial Day.  That would blow out the previous record of 404 on heading into Memorial Day 2016.

No doubt, but rigs will probably drop faster than the current rate. 

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

2 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Yes brokerages are CTA. 

The bigger story is that The Chinese took it up the ass on WTI futures way more than domestic speculators did last week. 

Fuck em

[fattyflattie 4631]

5 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Standard fare across most rigs in the GOM back in the day.  I usually gained minimum 5 lbs every two-week hitch working offshore.

Yeah that’s exact /day menu of every barge and DSV as well.    Man I wish I could get back out there for a little spell off from the house.  Nothing like eating well 4x/day. 

[Trey3216 15298]

Natgas reverses from down 7+% to up almost 2%.  

[Dnaguy 11538]

16 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Natgas reverses from down 7+% to up almost 2%.  

Edited April 27, 2020 by Dnaguy

[Trey3216 15298]

21 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Pretty much 

[Moby Ric 2058]

2 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Natgas reverses from down 7+% to up almost 2%.  

Yes it was kind of a crazy ride today.

[Trey3216 15298]

June WTI down another 15% or so, under 11.   
 

Margin reqs were upped to $10/contract last week, so if we break below 10, we’ll likely see another full-fledged washout.  

[Hate 20037]

What the lag time for consumption to appear in the price? I know it won’t be much, but could there be a little bump with things starting to open up even if only slightly? Or is there just too much goddamn oil right now for it not to even register?

[Trey3216 15298]

7 minutes ago, Hate said:

What the lag time for consumption to appear in the price? I know it won’t be much, but could there be a little bump with things starting to open up even if only slightly? Or is there just too much goddamn oil right now for it not to even register?

The little bump is like a small mole on a big titty.  Don’t change the cup size.  

[Lobwedgephil 1139]

Don't remember is this was posted yesterday or not. 

 

•  April 27, 2020
• Posted by: art.berman
• Category: The Petroleum Truth Report

26 Comments 

It’s game-over for most of the U.S. oil industry. 

Prices have collapsed and storage is nearly full. The only option for many producers is to shut in their wells. That means no income. Most have considerable debt so bankruptcy is next. 

Peggy Noonan wrote in her column recently that “this is a never-before-seen level of national economic calamity; history doesn’t get bigger than this.” That is the superficial view. 

Coronavirus has changed everything. The longer it lasts, the less the future will look anything like the past.

Most people, policy makers and economists are energy blind and cannot, therefore, fully grasp the gravity or the consequences of what is happening. 

Energy is the economy and oil is the most important and productive portion of energy. U.S. oil consumption is at its lowest level since 1971 when production was only about 78% of what it was in 2019. As goes oil, so goes the economy…down.

The old oil industry and the old economy are gone. The energy mix that underlies the economy will be different now. Oil production and price are unlikely to regain late 2018 levels. Renewable sources will fall behind along with efforts to mitigate climate change.

It’s Really Bad

2020 global liquids demand may average 20 mmb/d less than in 2019 (Figure 1). This estimate is really a thought experiment because it is impossible to know what supply and demand are in the present much less in the next quarter or beyond. This is a time of unimaginable flux and uncertainty because no one knows how long economic activity will be depressed, how long it will take to recover or if it will recover.

The estimate in Figure 1 differs from most forecasts in two important ways. First, I believe that supply will fall much faster than most other sources. That is because storage will soon be full and shutting in production will be the only option for many producers.

Figure 1. 2020 global oil demand may average 20 million barrels per day lower than in 2019.
Source: OPEC, IEA, Vitol, Trafigura, Goldman Sachs and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Second, I doubt that there will be a demand recovery in the third quarter despite the re-opening of businesses in the second. That is because we are in a global depression. Unemployment will remain high and consumers will be damaged from lack of income over the months of quarantine. The truth is that I doubt that demand will ever recover.

Economies will re-start slowly. A useful analogy is being at a traffic light behind 25 stopped cars. The light will change from green to red before your car begins to move. It may take several light changes before you get to the other side of the intersection.

U.S. consumption has fallen about 30% from 20 mmb/d in January to 14 mmb/d in April. Refinery intakes are already 25% lower than in the first quarter of the year and will fall further as consumption decreases. Refineries will close.

Most U.S. refineries require intermediate and heavy crude oil that must be imported. Few U.S. grades of oil can be used to produce diesel without blending them with imported oil. That is because they are too light to contain the organic compounds need to make diesel. Redesigning refineries will not change this. 

The world’s natural resource extraction, shipping and distribution system relies on diesel. As refineries close and less diesel is produced, there will be lower levels of natural resource extraction, less manufacturing and less buying of goods.

Diesel cannot be produced without first producing gasoline. The U.S. has had a gasoline surplus since late 2014 and the current surplus is the highest in 5 years (Figure 2).

Figure 2. U.S. gasoline comparative inventory has increased 30 million barrels since March 20 to a record level of 28.4 million barrels more than the five-year average. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Diesel demand is less elastic than gasoline demand because of its critical role in heavy transport. What will happen to the excess produced gasoline if storage is full? Will it be burned?

Those who see an opportunity for renewable energy in the demise of oil need to think again. The manufacture of solar panels, wind turbines and electric cars depend on diesel all along the supply chain from extraction to distribution of finished products. A world in economic depression will default to the cheapest and most productive fuels. Oil will be cheap and abundant for a long time. There will be little money or appetite for the massive equipment changes that renewable sources require. Climate change will not be high in the consciousness of people struggling to survive.

Figure 3 is another thought experiment in which I use tight oil rig count and output to estimate forward levels of U.S. production. The normal trajectory is an estimate of how production might decline as rigs are idled from lack of capital investment. It suggests that tight oil production might decrease by about 50% from 7 to 3.5 mmb/d by July 2021.

Figure 3. Thought experiment based on rig count through April 2020 and 12-month lagged production.
Source: Baker Hughes, EIA DPR, Drilling Info and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

The shut-in trajectory suggests that tight oil production may fall below 3 mmb/d by June of this year. Since tight oil accounts for about 55% of U.S. output, total crude oil and condensate production could decline from 12 mmb/d to 5.5 mmb/d by the end of the first half of 2020. This estimate is much more aggressive than EIA forecasts because EIA hasn’t adequately modeled the speed of shut in production with full storage levels.

Energy is the Economy

Gross domestic product (GDP) is proportional to oil consumption (Figure 4). That’s because oil is the economy. Every aspect of production and use of goods and services requires burning fossil energy. There are approximately 4.5 years of human labor in a barrel of oil (N. J. Hagens, personal communication and The Oil Drum). No other energy source comes close to that level of energy density.

Figure 4. Gross domestic product (GDP) is proportional to oil consumption
Source: EIA, World Bank and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

 

Those who believe that the world will function the same on lower energy density sources like wind and solar should review their old physics text books. You cannot fit 4.5 years of work from sunlight or wind into the 5.6 cubic feet space of a barrel of oil.

Seventeen investment analysts recently estimated that U.S. GDP would contract an average of 30-35% in 2020 (Figure 5) within a range of 9-50%. The correlation shown in Figure 4 suggests it will decrease by about 20-25% based on estimated decrease in U.S. oil consumption. Any value within this spectrum is catastrophic.

Figure 5. U.S. GDP to contract 30-35% in 2020 based on estimates by seventeen investment analysts
Source: Charles Schwab and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Economist Lawrence Summers has warned that the U.S. financial system may collapse because of cascading defaults. Approximately 25% of U.S. renters did not pay their landlords and 23% of Americans did not make their mortgage payment in April. When people don’t pay their creditors, creditors in turn cannot pay their creditors. For comparison, a 28% mortgage default rate contributed to the 2008 financial collapse.

Joseph Stiglitz recently explained that the current pandemic will affect the developing world more severely than it has developed countries. It might lead to mass migration problems that could dwarf the dislocations of the last six years out of Africa and the Middle East.

Slouching Toward Bethlehem

Many will probably find my analysis overly pessimistic. Crude oil markets do not. Negative WTI futures prices last week could not have sent a stronger signal for producers to cease and desist. 

Large segments of the U.S. oil industry will have to be nationalized before the year is over. The price of oil is too low to justify the cost of extraction even if storage were available. The value of a barrel of oil, however, is 4.5 man-years of work and that productivity multiplier will be essential if the U.S. economy is to avoid collapse or for it to recover if collapse is unavoidable. 

The United States has engaged in the foolish practice of draining America first since the beginning of tight oil production a decade ago. There was value up to the point that domestic oil substituted for imported light oil but exporting more was dumb. That is true especially now that someone else’s oil will be cheap to buy for years.

There are few moments when we may truly say that things are different now. This is one of those moments. We do not know what awful form the future may take, what rough beast slouches toward Bethlehem to be born. 

The game is over for oil. We should place all of our attention on saving the economy.

I hope that we learn to view what is happening as a chance to simplify and to learn to be satisfied with no more than what we need. It is unlikely that we will have much choice.

[Trey3216 15298]

8 minutes ago, Lobwedgephil said:

Don't remember is this was posted yesterday or not. 

 

•  April 27, 2020
• Posted by: art.berman
• Category: The Petroleum Truth Report

26 Comments 

It’s game-over for most of the U.S. oil industry. 

Prices have collapsed and storage is nearly full. The only option for many producers is to shut in their wells. That means no income. Most have considerable debt so bankruptcy is next. 

Peggy Noonan wrote in her column recently that “this is a never-before-seen level of national economic calamity; history doesn’t get bigger than this.” That is the superficial view. 

Coronavirus has changed everything. The longer it lasts, the less the future will look anything like the past.

Most people, policy makers and economists are energy blind and cannot, therefore, fully grasp the gravity or the consequences of what is happening. 

Energy is the economy and oil is the most important and productive portion of energy. U.S. oil consumption is at its lowest level since 1971 when production was only about 78% of what it was in 2019. As goes oil, so goes the economy…down.

The old oil industry and the old economy are gone. The energy mix that underlies the economy will be different now. Oil production and price are unlikely to regain late 2018 levels. Renewable sources will fall behind along with efforts to mitigate climate change.

It’s Really Bad

2020 global liquids demand may average 20 mmb/d less than in 2019 (Figure 1). This estimate is really a thought experiment because it is impossible to know what supply and demand are in the present much less in the next quarter or beyond. This is a time of unimaginable flux and uncertainty because no one knows how long economic activity will be depressed, how long it will take to recover or if it will recover.

The estimate in Figure 1 differs from most forecasts in two important ways. First, I believe that supply will fall much faster than most other sources. That is because storage will soon be full and shutting in production will be the only option for many producers.

Figure 1. 2020 global oil demand may average 20 million barrels per day lower than in 2019.
Source: OPEC, IEA, Vitol, Trafigura, Goldman Sachs and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Second, I doubt that there will be a demand recovery in the third quarter despite the re-opening of businesses in the second. That is because we are in a global depression. Unemployment will remain high and consumers will be damaged from lack of income over the months of quarantine. The truth is that I doubt that demand will ever recover.

Economies will re-start slowly. A useful analogy is being at a traffic light behind 25 stopped cars. The light will change from green to red before your car begins to move. It may take several light changes before you get to the other side of the intersection.

U.S. consumption has fallen about 30% from 20 mmb/d in January to 14 mmb/d in April. Refinery intakes are already 25% lower than in the first quarter of the year and will fall further as consumption decreases. Refineries will close.

Most U.S. refineries require intermediate and heavy crude oil that must be imported. Few U.S. grades of oil can be used to produce diesel without blending them with imported oil. That is because they are too light to contain the organic compounds need to make diesel. Redesigning refineries will not change this. 

The world’s natural resource extraction, shipping and distribution system relies on diesel. As refineries close and less diesel is produced, there will be lower levels of natural resource extraction, less manufacturing and less buying of goods.

Diesel cannot be produced without first producing gasoline. The U.S. has had a gasoline surplus since late 2014 and the current surplus is the highest in 5 years (Figure 2).

Figure 2. U.S. gasoline comparative inventory has increased 30 million barrels since March 20 to a record level of 28.4 million barrels more than the five-year average. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Diesel demand is less elastic than gasoline demand because of its critical role in heavy transport. What will happen to the excess produced gasoline if storage is full? Will it be burned?

Those who see an opportunity for renewable energy in the demise of oil need to think again. The manufacture of solar panels, wind turbines and electric cars depend on diesel all along the supply chain from extraction to distribution of finished products. A world in economic depression will default to the cheapest and most productive fuels. Oil will be cheap and abundant for a long time. There will be little money or appetite for the massive equipment changes that renewable sources require. Climate change will not be high in the consciousness of people struggling to survive.

Figure 3 is another thought experiment in which I use tight oil rig count and output to estimate forward levels of U.S. production. The normal trajectory is an estimate of how production might decline as rigs are idled from lack of capital investment. It suggests that tight oil production might decrease by about 50% from 7 to 3.5 mmb/d by July 2021.

Figure 3. Thought experiment based on rig count through April 2020 and 12-month lagged production.
Source: Baker Hughes, EIA DPR, Drilling Info and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

The shut-in trajectory suggests that tight oil production may fall below 3 mmb/d by June of this year. Since tight oil accounts for about 55% of U.S. output, total crude oil and condensate production could decline from 12 mmb/d to 5.5 mmb/d by the end of the first half of 2020. This estimate is much more aggressive than EIA forecasts because EIA hasn’t adequately modeled the speed of shut in production with full storage levels.

Energy is the Economy

Gross domestic product (GDP) is proportional to oil consumption (Figure 4). That’s because oil is the economy. Every aspect of production and use of goods and services requires burning fossil energy. There are approximately 4.5 years of human labor in a barrel of oil (N. J. Hagens, personal communication and The Oil Drum). No other energy source comes close to that level of energy density.

Figure 4. Gross domestic product (GDP) is proportional to oil consumption
Source: EIA, World Bank and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

 

Those who believe that the world will function the same on lower energy density sources like wind and solar should review their old physics text books. You cannot fit 4.5 years of work from sunlight or wind into the 5.6 cubic feet space of a barrel of oil.

Seventeen investment analysts recently estimated that U.S. GDP would contract an average of 30-35% in 2020 (Figure 5) within a range of 9-50%. The correlation shown in Figure 4 suggests it will decrease by about 20-25% based on estimated decrease in U.S. oil consumption. Any value within this spectrum is catastrophic.

Figure 5. U.S. GDP to contract 30-35% in 2020 based on estimates by seventeen investment analysts
Source: Charles Schwab and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Economist Lawrence Summers has warned that the U.S. financial system may collapse because of cascading defaults. Approximately 25% of U.S. renters did not pay their landlords and 23% of Americans did not make their mortgage payment in April. When people don’t pay their creditors, creditors in turn cannot pay their creditors. For comparison, a 28% mortgage default rate contributed to the 2008 financial collapse.

Joseph Stiglitz recently explained that the current pandemic will affect the developing world more severely than it has developed countries. It might lead to mass migration problems that could dwarf the dislocations of the last six years out of Africa and the Middle East.

Slouching Toward Bethlehem

Many will probably find my analysis overly pessimistic. Crude oil markets do not. Negative WTI futures prices last week could not have sent a stronger signal for producers to cease and desist. 

Large segments of the U.S. oil industry will have to be nationalized before the year is over. The price of oil is too low to justify the cost of extraction even if storage were available. The value of a barrel of oil, however, is 4.5 man-years of work and that productivity multiplier will be essential if the U.S. economy is to avoid collapse or for it to recover if collapse is unavoidable. 

The United States has engaged in the foolish practice of draining America first since the beginning of tight oil production a decade ago. There was value up to the point that domestic oil substituted for imported light oil but exporting more was dumb. That is true especially now that someone else’s oil will be cheap to buy for years.

There are few moments when we may truly say that things are different now. This is one of those moments. We do not know what awful form the future may take, what rough beast slouches toward Bethlehem to be born. 

The game is over for oil. We should place all of our attention on saving the economy.

I hope that we learn to view what is happening as a chance to simplify and to learn to be satisfied with no more than what we need. It is unlikely that we will have much choice.

[Viking 295]

How do you shut in an oil well?

I know nothing about o&g and my searches for an answer turn up a bunch of stuff about royalty payments and shutting down while drilling.

 

[Storm the Field 5239]

7 minutes ago, Viking said:

How do you shut in an oil well?

I know nothing about o&g and my searches for an answer turn up a bunch of stuff about royalty payments and shutting down while drilling.

Most oil and gas leases only allow for gas wells to be shut-in (as a result of market conditions). When operators opt to shut-in a gas well, they have to pay shut-in royalties in order to keep the lease from expiring due to lack of production. Typically, there's no provision for shutting-in oil wells, which is why companies have been asking state oil and gas regulators to issue emergency orders allowing them to shut in oil wells without triggering lease termination. 

[Okie State 3687]

I don't understand articles that say demand may never return. Is that just assuming that by the time everything is back up and running normally that we will have adapted to using less energy? I understand that things become more efficient over time, but populations also continue to grow and developing countries continue to develop. I just don't see how demand will never again reach levels we saw in the past two years.

[Okie State 3687]

Double post

[HoustonFrog 368]

How do you shut in an oil well?
I know nothing about o&g and my searches for an answer turn up a bunch of stuff about royalty payments and shutting down while drilling.
 

If it’s a shale horizontal well - get yourself a big cement truck(s), and fill it until full. Then run away and act like it never happened

[Parliament 13979]

I think he's saying the global economy will never recover?  Dunno.  He seems to have started with the worst case scenario and built the right "thought experiment" to justify it.

Edited April 28, 2020 by Parliament

[Coyote 269]

Double

[Coyote 269]

Double

[sunset87 235]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

How do you shut in an oil well?

I know nothing about o&g and my searches for an answer turn up a bunch of stuff about royalty payments and shutting down while drilling.

 

You can produce your wells a few days during the month so that you are reporting production and holding leases. The key is to not sell oil during this time. You need ample storage in your tank batteries to be able to produce a little oil for several months but not have to sell the stuff.

[Trey3216 15298]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

The author never explains that about when demand resumes.  It will resume, even if we are in a depression*. It was a really weird article. 

I believe we’re in a pandemic-induced recession and we will have a wide u-shaped recovery. I would love for that author, or anyone, to explain to me once this thing goes away, and it will, how demand and the economy won’t slowly resume to normal. 

One thing the author was correct on, this may have killed the “green/renewable” energy expansion for the Immediate/foreseeable future

[Okie State 3687]

One thing the author was correct on, this may have killed the “green/renewable” energy expansion for the Immediate/foreseeable future

This too. Cheap oil leads to fewer alternatives which leads to increased demand. The only thing I could see leading to actual long term demand destruction is an extended period of high prices that allow renewables to finally become viable. Will that happen in our lifetimes? Well...oil is $10 so who the fuck knows.

[Okie State 3687]

Shitty Tapa double post

[Lagunamadre 1975]

2 hours ago, Viking said:

How do you shut in an oil well?

I know nothing about o&g and my searches for an answer turn up a bunch of stuff about royalty payments and shutting down while drilling.

 

Same way you shut off a water hose. A bit more complicated but same concept. The question is what are the repercussions. There are consequences to the operators from losing their oil and gas leases (which can be extremely valuable in normal times,) to losing their revenue preventing them from making debt payments/making payroll, to compromising the integrity of the wellbore (so when they turn it back on it's not the same quality of producer as it was prior). It's literally the first time this has ever happened (nowhere to put it/zero value) in modern history. So there will be a ton of litigation and in the end judges, regulators and banks will decide the extent of the consequences. 

[Blotto 23226]

23 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

One thing the author was correct on, this may have killed the “green/renewable” energy expansion for the Immediate/foreseeable future

Why? If anything this scenario is yet another reason why not reducing our reliance on O&G is the bet moving forward. If the majority of your energy consumption is supplied by solar, wind, nuclear, fuel cells (hydrogen) there's nothing to shut in. Oil played the essential role in the global growth over the last 100 years, but its time has peaked. Yes, there will always be a need for oil, but why deal with all the geopolitical issues and the fucked up supply/demand/pricing issues that constantly arise? The sun always comes up, atoms can always be split, etc.... Doesnt mean we won't need any oil over the next 20-50 years, but I don't lose a lot of sleep over peak oil.....we'll never get there. 

Edited April 28, 2020 by Blotto

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

He's talking about US shale oil not coming back.  Foreign producers will be able to meet future demand when it rises.

He may be wrong, but I don't think it's too far fetched at this point

[Okie State 3687]

I think he's saying the global economy will never recover?  Dunno.  He seems to have started with the worst case scenario and built the right "thought experiment" to justify it.

I guess so. Referring to this paragraph specifically. I mean third quarter recovery is very much up for debate. The last sentence makes no sense though and has no explanation.

"Second, I doubt that there will be a demand recovery in the third quarter despite the re-opening of businesses in the second. That is because we are in a global depression. Unemployment will remain high and consumers will be damaged from lack of income over the months of quarantine. The truth is that I doubt that demand will ever recover."

[Okie State 3687]

He's talking about US shale oil not coming back.  Foreign producers will be able to meet future demand when it rises.

He may be wrong, but I don't think it's too far fetched at this point

That would make more sense. I'm on the downstream side so I always think of demand in terms of finished products.

 

[sunset87 235]

The author of that article, Art Berman, was an early skeptic of the economics of shale plays. He wrote quite a few articles on the subject.

I think in this article he is implying that we are going to see a huge reset of the world economy. Which will take a very long time to recover back to what we consider “normal”. According to him maybe never. 
 

How long is the real question.

Edited April 28, 2020 by sunset87

[Okie State 3687]

[sunset87 235]

double

Edited April 28, 2020 by sunset87

[Neonmoon 38126]

2 hours ago, Viking said:

How do you shut in an oil well?

I know nothing about o&g and my searches for an answer turn up a bunch of stuff about royalty payments and shutting down while drilling.

 

You work at BP?

 

[52-80 18962]

57 minutes ago, sunset87 said:

You can produce your wells a few days during the month so that you are reporting production and holding leases. The key is to not sell oil during this time. You need ample storage in your tank batteries to be able to produce a little oil for several months but not have to sell the stuff.

Just pump it back through the injector well for #unlimitedreservoir

[Trey3216 15298]

10 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Correct. But one thing someone said somewhere, maybe Neon Moon or Parliament, was that car manufacturers are all developing economic EVs. Not luxury-priced Teslas, but something comparable to affordable new gas vehicles. However, I think a lengthy recession and slow recovery is inevitable. I can’t see many new car sales period. 

Regardless, to state that oil is “over” and not y’all about any recovery is asinine. I thought it was an asinine article. Designed to shock and begging for more information. Hard pass on paying much more attention to it. 

Yep.   I doubt many auto companies are going to invest in rolling out new lines right now when they’ll be sitting on “new” 2019’s and 2020’s for the next 2 years.   I said a long time ago on this thread that we’d see another cash for clunkers program, it’ll happen by this fall.  

[Okie State 3687]

Yep.   I doubt many auto companies are going to invest in rolling out new lines right now when they’ll be sitting on “new” 2019’s and 2020’s for the next 2 years.   I said a long time ago on this thread that we’d see another cash for clunkers program, it’ll happen by this fall.  

Good. I have clunker I need to get rid of.

[Fudge Nuggets 18825]

4 minutes ago, Okie State said:

13 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep.   I doubt many auto companies are going to invest in rolling out new lines right now when they’ll be sitting on “new” 2019’s and 2020’s for the next 2 years.   I said a long time ago on this thread that we’d see another cash for clunkers program, it’ll happen by this fall.  

Good. I have clunker I need to get rid of.

Will my five month old Mercedes qualify?

[Sabalo 992]

5 minutes ago, Okie State said:

14 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep.   I doubt many auto companies are going to invest in rolling out new lines right now when they’ll be sitting on “new” 2019’s and 2020’s for the next 2 years.   I said a long time ago on this thread that we’d see another cash for clunkers program, it’ll happen by this fall.  

Good. I have clunker I need to get rid of.

I hope I can get a cash for clunker deal on the new Tesla pickup.  I have more than 1 clunker I'd like to get rid of.

[Okie State 3687]

Shit I don't remember the rules. Was it just a credit toward a new car? I just need to get rid of one.

[Neonmoon 38126]

Like always, no one knows what will happen with energy. 

[tx 3 putt 74767]

1 hour ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

He's talking about US shale oil not coming back.  Foreign producers will be able to meet future demand when it rises.

He may be wrong, but I don't think it's too far fetched at this point

that would be a huge kick to the balls for Texas. damn, the eagleford days were glorious. 

[Francisco 2.0 31567]

3 minutes ago, Okie State said:

Shit I don't remember the rules. Was it just a credit toward a new car? I just need to get rid of one.

Here was the original Cash for Clunker rules, for reference:

 

Eligibility criteria[edit]

• Vehicle must be less than 25 years old on the trade-in date.
• Only the purchase or 5 year minimum lease of new vehicles qualify.
• Generally, trade-in vehicles must get a weighted combined average rating of 18 or fewer miles per gallon (some very large pickup trucksand cargo vans have different requirements).
• Trade-in vehicles must be registered and insured continuously for the full year preceding the trade-in.
• Trade-in vehicles must be in driveable condition.
• The program requires the scrapping of the eligible trade-in vehicle and that the dealer disclose to the customer an estimate of the scrap value of the trade-in. The scrap value, however minimal, will be in addition to the rebate, and not in place of the rebate.
• The new car bought under the plan must have a suggested retail price of no more than $45,000, and for passenger automobiles, the new vehicle must have a combined fuel economy value of at least 22 mpg_‑US (11 L/100 km; 26 mpg_‑imp).^[18]

 

 

 

 

 

Credit[edit]

Depending on the type of car purchased and "the difference in fuel economy between the purchased vehicle and the trade-in vehicle", the amount of the credit given in the form of vouchers to eligible customers is either $3,500 or $4,500.^[24] New car dealers will be able to reduce the purchase price by the amount of the voucher for which that the customer is eligible.

 

 

Edited April 28, 2020 by Francisco 2.0

[Fudge Nuggets 18825]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Might violate your lease agreement brah

Paid straight cash, homie.

[Fudge Nuggets 18825]

1 minute ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Fuck that. You’re going to see mass consolidation and as we approach $40-$50, you’re going to see new teams be formed with patient capital, picking off assets Exxon and Chevron don’t want, and Oxy assets out of bankruptcy. 

This industry is harmed but it’s not going away. 

A lot of those new teams will be led by the same guys and gals (hey, Vicki) that fucked things up this time around.  And some dumbasses will throw a bunch of money away financing their next con job.

[Okie State 3687]

Here was the original Cash for Clunker rules, for reference:
 

Eligibility criteria[edit]

• Vehicle must be less than 25 years old on the trade-in date.
• Only the purchase or 5 year minimum lease of new vehicles qualify.
• Generally, trade-in vehicles must get a weighted combined average rating of 18 or fewer miles per gallon (some very large pickup trucksand cargo vans have different requirements).
• Trade-in vehicles must be registered and insured continuously for the full year preceding the trade-in.
• Trade-in vehicles must be in driveable condition.
• The program requires the scrapping of the eligible trade-in vehicle and that the dealer disclose to the customer an estimate of the scrap value of the trade-in. The scrap value, however minimal, will be in addition to the rebate, and not in place of the rebate.
• The new car bought under the plan must have a suggested retail price of no more than $45,000, and for passenger automobiles, the new vehicle must have a combined fuel economy value of at least 22 mpg_‑US (11 L/100 km; 26 mpg_‑imp).^[18]

 
 
 
 
 

Credit[edit]

Depending on the type of car purchased and "the difference in fuel economy between the purchased vehicle and the trade-in vehicle", the amount of the credit given in the form of vouchers to eligible customers is either $3,500 or $4,500.^[24] New car dealers will be able to reduce the purchase price by the amount of the voucher for which that the customer is eligible.

 

 

Shit. I don't need another damn car!

[Trey3216 15298]

13 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Fuck that. You’re going to see mass consolidation and as we approach $40-$50, you’re going to see new teams be formed with patient capital, picking off assets Exxon and Chevron don’t want, and Oxy assets out of bankruptcy. 

This industry is harmed but it’s not going away. 

Wait til I win Mega Millions tonight.   I’ll be calling a few of you.   

[DCA_HORN 725]

I think a lot of money will dispense with old guard fuckups. Like, let’s take White Star Petroleum. I’m sure HoustonFrog is familiar. OKC company that was former CHK then American Energy. Guys like that will never get capital again. Ever. 
Regardless, bad investments are good for prices (if bad for fundraising environment for new groups).  

You say that but how many times have we seen it happen before? As soon as capital comes back to the industry team's like that will be funded again.

[J.R. 150]

9 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Fuck that. You’re going to see mass consolidation and as we approach $40-$50, you’re going to see new teams be formed with patient capital, picking off assets Exxon and Chevron don’t want, and Oxy assets out of bankruptcy. 

This industry is harmed but it’s not going away. 

This. And the idea that foreign production that is also getting destroyed will bounce back faster than US shale is downright laughable. 

[J.R. 150]

13 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

. 

Edited April 29, 2020 by J.R.
Dp