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Lion Air has lost contact with a plane


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https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/30/asia/lion-air-plane-why-did-it-crash-intl/index.html

(CNN)The plane behind Lion Air's crash off Indonesia was one of Boeing's newest and most advanced jets. It was just two months old and with 800 hours under its belt, so experts are baffled as to what exactly caused the 737 MAX 8 to crash.

While no information has been released yet as to why the brand-new plane crashed into the sea 13 minutes after takeoff, FlightRadar24 has published data that shows the plane behaving erratically during takeoff. When a plane would normally be ascending in the first few minutes of flight, the Lion Air jet experienced a 726-foot drop over 21 seconds.
 
Aviation expert Philip Butterworth-Hayes told CNN that the data was unusual -- especially since takeoffs like this are typically controlled by the plane's automatic systems.
"This doesn't fit an automatic flight profile," Butterworth-Hayes said while studying the data. "Unless, the aircraft was trying to correct itself at the time for a number of reasons."
 
 
"This shows an unusually unstable vertical flight profile," he added.
"Exactly at the same time as the speed increased there was an altitude dip, which meant that at that point there was quite some loss of control."
The plane, which has only been in operation since August 15, was carrying 181 passengers as well as six cabin crew members and two pilots, bound for Pangkal Pinang on the Indonesian island of Bangka.
Former US National Transportation Safety Board air crash investigator and CNN aviation analyst Peter Goelz told CNN the data clearly showed issues with both the speed and altitude of the plane.
"There is something obviously wrong in both the air speed and the altitude which would point to the flight control systems," he said. "These are fly-by-wire systems -- highly automated -- and pilots may not be able to troubleshoot failures in a timely manner."
Soldiers push an inflatable raft as they carry debris from the Lion Air flight JT610 airplane that crashed into the sea.
 
Soldiers push an inflatable raft as they carry debris from the Lion Air flight JT610 airplane that crashed into the sea.

'Airplanes don't just fall out of the sky'

Butterworth-Hayes said that given that the plane was only two months old, the reason behind the crash was "very unlikely" to be a mechanical fault.
"Airplanes don't just fall out of the sky," he said. "I can't think of any mechanical issue apart from a sudden, unexplained loss of engine power (or) complete electrical failure. It's far more likely to be an external event."
He suggests that an environmental issue is to blame -- such as a microburst, or the plane hitting something like a flock of birds.
"Microbursts are very difficult to detect -- they're a sudden down-rush of wind, like a vortex and you can't really see it -- you hit it, suddenly your aircraft isn't performing how it should do, you start doing all sorts of recovery motions and then it's too late."
The new Boeing 737 MAX 8 made a request to air traffic control to return to the airport around 19 kilometers (12 miles) after takeoff, but did not indicate there was any emergency.
Radar data did not show that the plane had turned back, and air traffic controllers lost contact with it soon after, Yohanes Sirait, spokesman for AirNav Indonesia, the agency that oversees air traffic navigation, told CNN.
 
Butterworth-Hayes said that the fact that the pilots had not indicated there was any problems on board suggests there was a minor incident they were dealing with that they were in control of.
"Their call suggests it was a minor incident which they were in control of and they didn't require assistance," he said. "But that rapidly escalated."
"There was an altitude loss (before the flight crashed) and just after that there was obviously some sort of correction," Butterworth-Hayes said while looking at the FlightRadar24 data.
"Whatever happens to that dip is a correction but whatever that correction was wasn't very long and that's when the plane started falling."
What we know

- The plane went down at around 6:30 a.m. Monday, en route from Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang

- Indonesian authorities believe all 189 people on board were killed

- The so-called black box flight recorder has yet to be found

- Flight crew reported an issue with the plane the night before the flight, and repairs were carried out

Speaking earlier with CNN, David Soucie -- a former safety inspector with the US Federal Aviation Administration -- said the fact that an emergency wasn't declared should be a cause for concern.
"What's most peculiar to me is the fact that they didn't declare an emergency. They just simply said, 'We're going back,'" said Soucie, a CNN safety analyst.
"But when I look at the track of the aircraft after that, the aircraft made a very steep dive after that, which is not typical of what they would've done," he added. "They would have maintained altitude and made that turn and come back to (the airport)."
Soucie added that something had to have happened for the aircraft to lose control.
He ruled out weather as a cause of the crash, however, since the plane did not appear to attempt to turn back toward Jakarta. "That says that something abrupt and very fast happened to the aircraft."

Are pitot tubes to blame?

Pilots on board the plane's previous flight to Denpasar reported technical problems and that the plane was displaying "unreliable airspeed," the deputy chief of Indonesia's National Transport Safety Committee, Haryo Satmiko, told reporters, including Reuters, during a news conference on Monday.
Engineers had checked and repaired the issue, Lion Air Chief Executive Edward Sirait told local media, and that they gave the plane clearance to fly.
 
Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
Rescue workers carry a body that was recovered from the waters near Jakarta on October 29.
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A woman in Pangkal Pinang prays as she and others wait for news on October 29.
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A wallet is seen in the water where the plane went down.
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People gather on the beach as a rescue team prepares to leave the coast of Karawang.
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Wreckage from the plane lies at a port in Jakarta on October 29.
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People watch a rescue team as a helicopter flies overhead.
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Members of a rescue team bring personal items and wreckage ashore in Jakarta on October 29.
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Bagus Sunjoyo, head of airport authority for Soekarno-Hatta International Airport, speaks to members of the media during a news conference on October 29.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
People look at the passenger manifest for Lion Air Flight JT 610.
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Merdiana Harahap is consoled in Medan, Indonesia, on October 29. Her husband was on the plane.
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Indonesian President Joko Widodo inspects debris recovered from Lion Air Flight JT 610 on Tuesday, October 30.
 
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Indonesian President Joko Widodo inspects debris recovered from Lion Air Flight JT 610 on Tuesday, October 30.
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Emergency workers transfer a bag of debris off a boat in Jakarta, Indonesia, on October 30.
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A relative of a passenger cries at a hospital in Jakarta on October 30.
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Soldiers drag ashore an inflatable raft containing debris from the plane.
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Police personnel work to identify personal belongings that are believed to be from the plane's wreckage.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
President Widodo -- front row, second from right -- tours the operations center in Jakarta where debris was laid out on October 30.
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A diver with the Indonesian Navy enters the water off the north coast of Karawang.
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A police officer studies a map in the search-and-rescue command center.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
Divers work near the site of the crash on Monday, October 29.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
Rescue workers carry a body that was recovered from the waters near Jakarta on October 29.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
A woman in Pangkal Pinang prays as she and others wait for news on October 29.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
A wallet is seen in the water where the plane went down.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
People gather on the beach as a rescue team prepares to leave the coast of Karawang.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
Wreckage from the plane lies at a port in Jakarta on October 29.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
People watch a rescue team as a helicopter flies overhead.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
Members of a rescue team bring personal items and wreckage ashore in Jakarta on October 29.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
Bagus Sunjoyo, head of airport authority for Soekarno-Hatta International Airport, speaks to members of the media during a news conference on October 29.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
People look at the passenger manifest for Lion Air Flight JT 610.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
Merdiana Harahap is consoled in Medan, Indonesia, on October 29. Her husband was on the plane.
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Indonesian President Joko Widodo inspects debris recovered from Lion Air Flight JT 610 on Tuesday, October 30.
 
Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
Indonesian President Joko Widodo inspects debris recovered from Lion Air Flight JT 610 on Tuesday, October 30.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
Emergency workers transfer a bag of debris off a boat in Jakarta, Indonesia, on October 30.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
A relative of a passenger cries at a hospital in Jakarta on October 30.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
Soldiers drag ashore an inflatable raft containing debris from the plane.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
Police personnel work to identify personal belongings that are believed to be from the plane's wreckage.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
President Widodo -- front row, second from right -- tours the operations center in Jakarta where debris was laid out on October 30.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
A diver with the Indonesian Navy enters the water off the north coast of Karawang.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
A police officer studies a map in the search-and-rescue command center.
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Photos: In photos: Lion Air plane crashes off Indonesia
Divers work near the site of the crash on Monday, October 29.
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Rescue workers carry a body that was recovered from the waters near Jakarta on October 29.
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When asked about the "unreliable airspeed" problem that was reported, Butterworth-Hayes said the pilots would have been reporting an issue with the pitot tubes that determine air speed. Infamously, Pitot tubes were to blame for the Air France Flight 447 crash in 2009 when it plunged into the Atlantic Ocean. Ice crystals blocked the plane's pitot tubes, the autopilot disconnected and the pilots did not know how to react to what was happening.
"It reminds me a lot of the aircraft that came down in the Atlantic where you had accelerating speed and a loss of altitude -- which implies there was a sudden loss of control of the aircraft," he said.
"But if you look at the speed (from data from FlightRadar24), it's pretty constant."
He says, however, "Pitot tubes are only one part of the issue -- if pitot tube sensors were showing a different reading from other aircraft sensors this might explain a difference in aircraft performance indications."

Boeing 737 MAX 8 'top of the line, best you can buy'

The aircraft was one of 11 of the Boeing planes in Lion Air's fleet. In a statement, Boeing said the company was "deeply saddened" by the loss and offered "heartfelt sympathies" to passengers and crew on board, and their families.
Soucie said 800 hours was plenty of time "to get this tried and true."
He added the MAX 8 was "the top of the line, it's one of the best you can buy ... I don't see anything coming back towards maintenance on this issue or the flight of the aircraft itself."
Goelz agreed that the loss of such a new aircraft was "highly unusual."
But because Lion Air jet's pilot and co-pilot were experienced -- 6,000 and 5,000 flight hours, respectively -- and weather did not seem to be a factor, investigators would be focusing on the aircraft, he said.
Indonesian aviation authorities will inspect all Boeing 737 Max 8 planes belonging to the country's commercial airlines, Transportation Ministry official Capt. Avirianto told CNN.
Avirianto said Garuda's plane was inspected on Monday night. The ministry hoped to inspect at least three of Lion's remaining aircraft Tuesday night and the other eight soon. "We will checklist one by one, with its system and technical things," he said.
An Indonesian navy soldier jumps to dive at the location of the Lion Air flight JT610 crash.
 
An Indonesian navy soldier jumps to dive at the location of the Lion Air flight JT610 crash.
Until the aircraft's flight data recorders are found and an investigation is held, it's unlikely we'll know much about the cause of the Monday's crash, Aviation consultant and former pilot Alastair Rosenschein told CNN's Becky Anderson.
Rosenschein said it's particularly important to find the black boxes quickly because the plane that crashed was a newer aircraft.
"What happened here could possibly affect the same model of aircraft flying in other parts of the world," he said.
Until those boxes are found, it's unlikely that authorities will be able to figure out what brought down the plane.
Goelz said the Lion Air crash is yet again another reminder to officials that airlines need better recovery equipment.
"I also think it will take a few days to find the date recorders," he said, adding it's hard to find things in the ocean.
"(It) again highlights the need for more sophisticated tracking and recovery devices."

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saw this article today that Boeing might issue a safety warning on the Max:

 

Boeing is preparing to send a safety warning to operators of its new 737 Max jets in response to the investigation of last week’s fatal crash off the coast of Indonesia that left 189 dead, said a person familiar with the matter.

The bulletin from Boeing will alert airlines that erroneous readings from a flight-monitoring system can cause the planes to abruptly dive, said the person, who asked not to be named discussing details of the manufacturer’s plans. Boeing will warn pilots to follow an existing procedure to handle the problem, the person said.

The warning is based on preliminary findings from the accident involving a Lion Air jetliner, the person said. Under some circumstances, such as when pilots are manually flying, the Max jets will automatically try to push down the nose if they detect that an aerodynamic stall is possible, the person said.

One of the critical ways a plane determines if a stall is imminent is a measurement known as angle of attack, which is a calculation of the angle at which the wind is passing over the wings.

The Lion Air 737 Max 8 dove into the Java Sea on Oct. 29 minutes after takeoff, nosing downward so suddenly that it may have hit speeds of 600 miles an hour before slamming into the water. The pilots radioed a request to return to Jakarta to land, but never turned back toward the airport, according to Indonesia’s National Transportation Safety Committee and flight-track data. The committee said they were dealing with an erroneous airspeed indication.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-07/boeing-is-said-close-to-issuing-safety-bulletin-on-737-max-jets

 

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1 minute ago, Hate said:

That's not good.  So pilots will have to ignore an airspeed indicator?  I'm not a pilot so I have no idea what they think about this, but I wonder how comfortable they are with that procedure.  

I read it as a faulty airspeed indicator which feeds erroneous data to the angle of attack measurement causing the plane's FMC to think a stall is happening/imminent and pitching the nose down to increase air flow over the wing. Automation causing an issue.  

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12 hours ago, Hate said:

That's not good.  So pilots will have to ignore an airspeed indicator?  I'm not a pilot so I have no idea what they think about this, but I wonder how comfortable they are with that procedure.  

Know where to point the nose and know what power to use and the airspeed will be what you need it to be. 

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So I'm flying SWA today and I look at the card in front of me and it says Boeing 737-MAX8.  HOLY CRAP, I SHIT MY PANTS!  Hell no!  Needless to say I made it home, but I like to limit my liabilities.  Especially when it comes to planes.  Do I need to change airlines now?

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The Lion Air plane that crashed in the Java Sea last week had faulty airspeed readings during its last four flights and Indonesian investigators called on planemaker Boeing Co. and U.S. authorities to ensure there aren’t fleet-wide issues.

The Southeast Asian country’s National Transportation Safety Committee, which is charged with finding the cause of the crash that killed 189 people, is collecting data on what happened during the three prior malfunctions and the flight crew’s actions prior to the accident, it said in a statement Monday. The agency gleaned the information on the plane’s previous trips from the flight data recorder retrieved from the wreckage last week.

  

The body asked the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board “and Boeing to take necessary steps to prevent similar incidents, especially on the Boeing 737 Max, which number 200 aircraft all over the world,” it said in the statement.

So far, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, which certificated the 737 Max, hasn’t taken any steps to require inspections of the plane. “Any action that the FAA would take regarding that incident would have to wait until we have findings,” agency acting Administrator Daniel Elwell said Monday after a speaking engagement in Washington.

Investigators haven’t disclosed any reports of other airspeed failures on 737 Max aircraft. The FAA, which regulates the U.S. aviation industry, hasn’t received any reports of airspeed issues occurring on the model in the U.S., said a person familiar with the agency’s reviews. The person asked not to be named because he wasn’t authorized to speak about the issue.

A spokeswoman for Boeing in Singapore declined to comment. The NTSB, which conducts accident investigations and is assisting Indonesia in the probe, didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The latest information released by investigators still doesn’t answer why the pilots on three previous flights were able to handle the problem while the crew on Oct. 29 ended up diving at high speed into the sea, said John Cox, president of consulting company Safety Operating Systems and a former airline pilot.

“I’m still of the opinion that losing airspeed on the airplane shouldn’t result in losing the airplane,” Cox said.

  

Pilots are trained to deal with faulty airspeed readings. There are three separate systems to calculate speed and altitude, and there are a variety of measures pilots can take when speed readings become unreliable.

An area that investigators will want to explore is how Lion Air addressed a recurring problem on the plane. If malfunctions continue to occur on a component and routine maintenance procedures don’t solve it, airlines are supposed to have a process to bring greater scrutiny to the issue, Cox said.

“When you see recurring problems, it says the normal easy fixes aren’t solving it,” he said.

While search teams scouring the waters managed to bring up the flight data recorder, a separate recorder that captures cockpit conversations and background noise is still buried in the seabed where the plane plunged. The audio device may be crucial to unraveling what happened during the flight’s final moments. In particular, it may help explain why the crew asked to return to base minutes into the journey.

“We have said there’s a technical problem but we also want to know what they were discussing in the cockpit and what they were doing,” Soerjanto Tjahjono, chief of Indonesia’s NTSC, told reporters on Monday. “Cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder are both important to reveal the truth in this case.”

The initial readings from the data recorder showing an airspeed malfunction offer the first solid explanation for why the flight appeared to vary its speeds and altitude starting shortly after takeoff.

The plane’s altitude was mostly about 5,000 feet (1,524 meters), but rose and fell repeatedly within a range of a few hundred feet, according to flight-tracking data from FlightRadar24. The speed also fluctuated in a range of roughly 320 to 375 miles (515 to 604 kilometers) an hour, according to FlightRadar24’s data.

With the data recorder in the hands of investigators, the NTSC has recovered about 69 hours of flying data by the crashed jet during its last 19 trips.

Because Flight JT610 lasted only a few minutes, the voice recorder may also include at least some audio from the previous night’s trip from Denpasar, Bali to Jakarta. The aircraft experienced problems on the flight from Bali with sensors used to calculate altitude and speed.

The instruments were checked by maintenance workers overnight and the plane was cleared to fly, according to Lion Air.

Even with modern GPS tracking, planes need to calculate their precise speed through the air. To determine airspeed — which can vary substantially compared to the speed over the ground due to winds — aircraft rely on Pitot tubes which measure the air rushing into them.

By comparing that pressure against the ambient air pressure obtained from what are known as static ports, the aircraft can determine airspeed. If either of the pressure sensors are blocked, it can cause erroneous readings.

Indonesia’s rescue agency said Sunday that wreckage spotted by divers had turned out to be only pieces of skin of the Boeing Co. jet rather than the main fuselage. Strong underwater currents in the Java Sea off Jakarta and a muddy seabed have complicated a week-long hunt that’s involved dozens of ships and hundreds of specialist personnel.

As the 270-square-mile search for debris widened over the weekend, Indonesian authorities broadened a review of Lion Air’s operations, including the airline’s standard operating procedures and flight-crew qualifications. That followed the discovery of defects on two other Boeing 737 Max 8 planes — both operated by Lion Mentari Airlines — during checks on six aircraft of that type. Neither of the faults appeared related to the accident.

The inspection of plane debris indicated the aircraft didn’t explode mid-air before plunging into the Java Sea, Tjahjono said earlier on Monday.

“The aircraft broke apart under the impact of hitting the water at high speed and it didn’t break apart mid-air,” Tjahjono said. “The engines were still running at high RPM.”

President Joko Widodo has asked airlines to make passenger safety the highest priority, and the government had already ordered a review of Lion’s repair and maintenance unit and suspended several managers.

The transport ministry is coordinating with airport authorities, navigation operators and airlines among others to ensure airworthiness at all airports in Indonesia is well maintained, according to Transport Minister Budi Karya Sumadi.

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2018/11/06/506783.htm

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On 11/7/2018 at 10:20 PM, Nonbryan said:

So I'm flying SWA today and I look at the card in front of me and it says Boeing 737-MAX8.  HOLY CRAP, I SHIT MY PANTS!  Hell no!  Needless to say I made it home, but I like to limit my liabilities.  Especially when it comes to planes.  Do I need to change airlines now?

GkUPcKUcHfxe8IEN8eAT57aKnl4mDyou5RnpTH1t

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On 11/7/2018 at 10:20 PM, Nonbryan said:

So I'm flying SWA today and I look at the card in front of me and it says Boeing 737-MAX8.  HOLY CRAP, I SHIT MY PANTS!  Hell no!  Needless to say I made it home, but I like to limit my liabilities.  Especially when it comes to planes.  Do I need to change airlines now?

Yes. 

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write-up of what may have occurred:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/16/world/asia/lion-air-crash-cockpit.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

If correct, the pilots may not have had any idea what was going on, much less how to counter-act the anti-stall system that would soon kill everyone.  How many billions will this cost Boeing?  From settlements with the families to correcting the aircraft to lost sales.  

 

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16 hours ago, MrPhlegm said:

So Airbus designs Boeing's planes now?

Or Boeing tried to automate a flight law into the guppy and screwed it up. 

Airbuses don’t pitch down when they feel like they’re going too slow.  They will limit how much the plane can be pitched up and make it difficult, but not impossible, for the pilot to continue to pitch up. They will also set power to TOGA when a certain angle of attack is passed based on configuration and pitch down to an angle of attack just below stall if you let go of the stick. 

You may recall that the Air France 330 that crashed off of South America did so with the co pilot pulling full up nearly to the water. The plane didn’t pitch over on its own. 

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