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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yep, he cares a lot more about looking  powerful than about anybody dying or any nation’s borders.  I’m kind of surprised that Putin didn’t toss him a bone.  

Trump's ego and "Legacy" (in quotations as this legacy is whatever Trump believes/thinks it will be) are always the first factors in determining any statements or actions he will make. I really don't think the people of Ukraine or Russia for that matter factor into the equation other than how he perceives it will alter his ego or "legacy". 

In case anyone is curious, power and money followed after a massive gap then women (because a bad ass needs arm candy) is the rest of Trump's "moral compass". He follows the Scarface book of "How to win friends and influence people". 

Edited by BurntEyes
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Posted
13 hours ago, Orange&White said:

Two explosions at the exact same time in two different countries in facilities that both process Russian oil?? Who could it have been? I guess the mystery will never be solved??

I thought the KGB was supposed to be good?

That's some "Hogan's Heroes" shit.  Except Hogan would have made time to have a nice dinner and nail a Fraulein. 

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Posted
52 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:


The Ryazan one is burning pretty nicely.

Also, "Ukraine put together a kinetic sanctions package"

Spit Take Lol GIF by Justin

 

The Ryazan Oil Refinery (RNPK, part of Rosneft) was attacked last night. This is was the #3/4 largest refinery in Russia, with a stated capacity of ~340,000 BPD, and had been operating at ~250,000 the past year.

The fire broke out near the catalytic cracking or hydrotreating unit...

Actual processing in recent years has been around 12-13 million tons per year. In August, following drone strikes, the plant temporarily reduced production capacity (temporarily operating with one large unit—approximately half its capacity). Today, it may have been finished off!

This marks at least the third Ukrainian strike on the Ryazan refinery since August. On Aug. 2, the plant reportedly shut down two of its three primary refining units after an attack, and on Sept. 5, one more unit was taken offline, according to Reuters sources.

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, PTINS said:

The Ryazan Oil Refinery (RNPK, part of Rosneft) was attacked last night. This is was the #3/4 largest refinery in Russia, with a stated capacity of ~340,000 BPD, and had been operating at ~250,000 the past year.

The fire broke out near the catalytic cracking or hydrotreating unit...

Actual processing in recent years has been around 12-13 million tons per year. In August, following drone strikes, the plant temporarily reduced production capacity (temporarily operating with one large unit—approximately half its capacity). Today, it may have been finished off!

This marks at least the third Ukrainian strike on the Ryazan refinery since August. On Aug. 2, the plant reportedly shut down two of its three primary refining units after an attack, and on Sept. 5, one more unit was taken offline, according to Reuters sources.

 


And Putin is having a tantrum about the new sanctions, through Medvedev stating that it is an act of war against Russia

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Bevo said:


And Putin is having a tantrum about the new sanctions, through Medvedev stating that it is an act of war against Russia

The next Julia Davis drop on Russian Media Monitor is gonna be lit.   We should all agree to take a shot of vodka every time a nuclear attack on the west is threatened

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Posted
49 minutes ago, Bevo said:

And Putin is having a tantrum about the new sanctions, through Medvedev stating that it is an act of war against Russia

Aimed slowly at making Trump squirm, because the reality is that Moscow is fast approaching a point where they can't export anything oil & gas related, maybe not even crude oil to be refined and re-imported. 

Hell, that refinery they hit last night, if it's completely down, means Rosneft won't even be selling much fuel internally.

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Posted
1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Aimed slowly at making Trump squirm, because the reality is that Moscow is fast approaching a point where they can't export anything oil & gas related, maybe not even crude oil to be refined and re-imported. 

I'm having a hard time buying the below mattering - there are a myriad of ways they can get that cheap oil, and Beijing isn't going to give it up - Iran could serve as a proxy. Also, this says "seaborne" and nothing about pipelines, of which I'd guess China has a lot of.

If China reduces purchases in a huge way (not just "seaborne" but pipelines), then I'd feel like it means they know shit is going down and either they want to contribute to the post-Putin chaos, or they feel like they can wait and get a better deal when the dust dies down.

 

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Posted
39 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I'm having a hard time buying the below mattering - there are a myriad of ways they can get that cheap oil, and Beijing isn't going to give it up - Iran could serve as a proxy. Also, this says "seaborne" and nothing about pipelines, of which I'd guess China has a lot of.

If China reduces purchases in a huge way (not just "seaborne" but pipelines), then I'd feel like it means they know shit is going down and either they want to contribute to the post-Putin chaos, or they feel like they can wait and get a better deal when the dust dies down.

 

If Ukraine could only hit those pipelines. 

Posted
Just now, atomheartbevo said:

Ukraine might not want to fuck with pipelines feeding China.  Let China figure out on their own what to do.

Nah, blow that fucker up. End it. So they only have seaborne. 

Posted
2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

If Ukraine could only hit those pipelines. 

 

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Ukraine might not want to fuck with pipelines feeding China.  Let China figure out on their own what to do.

 

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Nah, blow that fucker up. End it. So they only have seaborne. 

I'll risk it.  Burn, Motherfucker, burn.

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Posted

G38in4lWsAAlUES?format=jpg&name=large

Would like to see Ukraine cut off more bulges and get their lines straighter, reducing the amount of territory they are having to cover.  Won't matter as much if the Russians start running low on fuel.

Meanwhile

 

Frontline report: Russia's military cracks - Shootings, shortages, and World War Two ammunition - Euromaidan Press

Quote

Today, there are important updates from the Russian Federation.

Here, for many Russian conscripts, the illusion of patriotic duty has collapsed, resulting in the latest mass shootings, as it was replaced by fear, despair, and an overwhelming urge to escape at any cost, any possibility of being involved in the war. 

Its grim reality is hardly confined to the frontlines, as it is tearing through Russian society, the army barracks and the minds of the soldiers that can be sent to fight it.

In the latest incident symbolizing this internal breakdown, a Russian conscript opened fire on his fellow soldiers at a military unit in Moscow region, killing two and wounding another before turning the gun on himself. The shooting occurred in the training center of an anti-aircraft brigade for newly drafted soldiers.

While the Russian army claims motive remains unclear, such cases are no longer rare. Shootings, self-killings, and mental breakdowns among newly drafted troops are increasingly common, reflecting a force that is psychologically cracking under the weight of the war. 

Russian authorities blame isolated stress incidents yet reports from soldiers and relatives tell a different story of bullying, deprivation, and hopelessness. 

Despite symbolic claims and censorship, the young conscripts are not blind. They see footage from the front, learn from returning soldiers, and know what awaits them in Ukraine. Many try to flee, but harsh new laws criminalize even online searches for information deemed extremist, a label that conveniently includes criticism of the war.

....

The shortages go far beyond personal gear, as a video released by Ukraine's 225th Assault Regiment shows German detonators from the World War Two-era found in a captured Russian ammunition depot. 

These relics of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact between the Soviet Union and Germany, marked with typical German insignia of that time, are a bitter irony for a regime that claims to be fighting fascism in Ukraine. 

They also expose the staggering depletion of Russian munitions reserves, as Russia is scraping century old stockpiles to keep the war machine running.

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

G38in4lWsAAlUES?format=jpg&name=large

Would like to see Ukraine cut off more bulges and get their lines straighter, reducing the amount of territory they are having to cover.  Won't matter as much if the Russians start running low on fuel.

Meanwhile

 

Frontline report: Russia's military cracks - Shootings, shortages, and World War Two ammunition - Euromaidan Press

 

If the wealthy in Moscow start hording fuel and long term consumables, it's going to filter down panic buying in the "middle class". 

That's when you will know any real plan to overthrow or execute Putin is coming down the pipe within months if not weeks. 

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Posted
7 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

The next Julia Davis drop on Russian Media Monitor is gonna be lit.   We should all agree to take a shot of vodka every time a nuclear attack on the west is threatened

IMG_5381.thumb.jpeg.d9395a632c54fcc10b0d9ef4af554cdc.jpegIMG_5382.thumb.jpeg.fb9e9de4be5f8d12fa2ad7a23b3bb4b5.jpegIMG_5383.thumb.jpeg.0020c5ad59bef9c70ce290aa5b5997a5.jpegIMG_5384.thumb.jpeg.f9d31f88aef69584d30a5d2e0d740017.jpegIMG_5385.thumb.jpeg.cbdfca362975acdf833e2019b961490a.jpegIMG_5386.thumb.jpeg.8ae353b51ec03b56e5c5ebd0d7d82b77.jpegIMG_5387.thumb.jpeg.4c06999e7ea169e842c2289898d4a387.jpegIMG_5388.thumb.jpeg.aae8f0042ebbf35f8c0706a820126668.jpeg

 

IMG_1315.gif.eee35604b1938e4cf50566a43c14a8d8.gif

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Posted
2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I'm having a hard time buying the below mattering - there are a myriad of ways they can get that cheap oil, and Beijing isn't going to give it up - Iran could serve as a proxy. Also, this says "seaborne" and nothing about pipelines, of which I'd guess China has a lot of.

If China reduces purchases in a huge way (not just "seaborne" but pipelines), then I'd feel like it means they know shit is going down and either they want to contribute to the post-Putin chaos, or they feel like they can wait and get a better deal when the dust dies down.

 

2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

If Ukraine could only hit those pipelines. 

58 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Ukraine might not want to fuck with pipelines feeding China.  Let China figure out on their own what to do.

57 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Nah, blow that fucker up. End it. So they only have seaborne. 

Relax, guys, I already took care of it for you.

image.png.65ad117bba042dc4b789b89cb79fd6af.png

The reality is, how many significant oil pipelines exist between Russia and China? 

"Doughnut, babe. Nothing. Zip. Zilch." - Hunt Stevenson (Michael Keaton) in Gung Ho

The waterborne crude oil exports from Russia to China is all there is.

TLDR

However, there is one major gas pipeline between the Bear and the Dragon, the Power of Siberia 1 Pipeline. This $55 Billion project, commissioned in 2021, included the 56" diameter, 1,860 mile pipeline from Kovykta Gas field in the Irkutsk Oblast (aren't you glad you played Risk?) to the China Border. I did check; there is a 9,500 ft mountain range they went around.

The Kovykta Gas Field is over 1,200 miles southeast of the Urengoy Gas Field in Siberia that supplies used to supply Eastern Europe, via a 2,800 mile pipeline. 

image.thumb.png.219d2a34936f196c2c095216ef587f02.png

The good news is the natural gas produced here is the really good stuff, that contains helium and is rich in Natural Gas Liquids.

A Gas Processing Plant requires a cryogenic plant operating at ~ -170 °F to separate the NGLs.. 

Helium processing is way out of my comfort zone...

"Helium extraction plant uses cryogenic distillation to reach temperatures as low as -269°C (-452°F), just a few degrees above absolute zero. These extreme temperatures are necessary to separate helium from the other gases found in natural gas because helium has the lowest boiling point of any element. "

The really bad news is the economies of scale you need to monetize the resource is mind boggling, and it is conveniently located literally in the middle of fucking nowhere, in an area with design conditions of -60 ℉, and a freeze depth of 13 ft. 

The Total "Power of Siberia Costs" included:

Gas Production Facilities        $  6.16    Billion
Gas Pipeline                             $15.07     Billion
Power Plant (160 MW)            $ 8.47?   Billion
Gas Plant                                  $13.70    Billion
Chemical Plant                         $11.60    Billion
                                                  $55.00    Billion

The overall projecticludes the entire vertical integration of natural gas processing; Natural gas Production to Pipelineto Gas Processing Plant to NGL fractionation Plant to Ethylene Plant (cracking ethane to make ethylene and cracking propane to make propylene) to Polyethylene/polyPropylene Plant (plastic pellets). Everything you need to get from raw natural gas to plastic pellets that become everything plastic that is "Made in China." 

For a processing guy, it doesn't get any better than this.  It is truly amazing that Russian can build something like this, yet they  invade Ukraine so they can take the toilets.

Some Russian Gas Processing Porn;

The first column of NGL/NRU unit Natural Gas Liquid/Nitrogen Rejection Unit) in the P1 section of Amur Gas Processing Plant was officially put into operation on May 1st, 2021.

image.thumb.png.e3ca2fb3e688e7f9c77cf11590ba4c9c.png

By far, the largest process vessel I have ever seen.

image.png.9f2b6ade314073764ac1f66ec5739183.png 

image.thumb.png.536c893ada212a8d8f01276986c838d1.png

 

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Posted

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Trump is no longer Putin‘s “elephant”, and is now seen as a “pindo” - the Russian derogatory term for Americans.  Elephant roughly translates as “our guy”, meaning he is a good dude and share similar positive characteristics as the Russian see themselves. I think. 

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Posted
11 hours ago, PTINS said:

For a processing guy, it doesn't get any better than this.  It is truly amazing that Russian can build something like this, yet they  invade Ukraine so they can take the toilets.

But do they really? I thought Russia paid big money to bring in western experts/companies to build their refineries..

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Posted

Interesting dive into the economics on the Western side of the war and the EU's use of Russian assets as collateral for loans to Ukraine. 

Spoiler

 

Forcing Function

The global implications of Ukraine’s dire fiscal situation.

“Yesterday is a cancelled check. Today is cash on the line. Tomorrow is a promissory note.” – Hank Stram

After nearly four years of nonstop war, it is not surprising that Ukraine’s domestic economy is highly distressed. Its energy infrastructure, railways, and heavy industry have suffered serious damage from a relentless barrage of Russian drone and missile attacks. Inflation is running at approximately 12% per year, and millions of its citizens have fled the country.

Although exact figures are difficult to ascertain, the October 2025 update by the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker pegs total Western funding for Ukraine at roughly €400 billion. Absent this support since the war began, the Ukrainian economy would have collapsed long ago. If funds were to dry up now, so too would the country’s ability to continue the fight. Going forward, the needs are substantial:

The pressure on Ukraine’s public finances remains acute, with around $60 billion in external financing needs for 2026-2027 yet to be covered, Ukrainian media quoted Finance Minister Sergei Marchenko as saying during the eighth meeting of the Ministerial Roundtable on Support for Ukraine in Washington on October 15.

‘To ensure the sustainability of public finances in 2026-2027, it is necessary to mobilize additional resources,’ the media quoted him as saying in a Finance Ministry press release…

Marchenko previously estimated the Ukrainian budget’s external financing needs in 2026 at $45.5 billion, and total external financing for the duration of the new four-year program with the IMF at $150-$170 billion.

US President Donald Trump’s approach to ending the war has certainly been erratic, but he has been steadfastly consistent in one regard: US taxpayers are done footing the bill. The last major appropriations bill to clear Congress, which allocated a total of $61 billion in support, was in April of 2024, and prospects for another effort on that scale are fleeting at best.

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The taps are closed | Getty

For all their public pronouncements of encouragement for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the war effort, the important member states of the European Union (EU) are hardly in a position to fill the financial void. Neither is Britain, which is itself teetering on the edge of a fiscal crisis. By process of elimination, only one realistic avenue remains to keep the Ukrainian economy afloat a bit longer:

EU leaders are set to instruct the European Commission to design a legal proposal to use billions of euros in Russian frozen state assets to fund a massive loan to Ukraine, after Belgium signaled it would not stand in the way.

The controversial proposal, if adopted, could release up to €140 billion to fund Ukraine’s war effort for another two to three years, using Russian state assets that were immobilized after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

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In case of emergency, break glass | Getty

The proponents of the loan plan claim the moral and legal high ground, but proceeding down this path is not without serious risks. That EU leaders are even contemplating the gambit is a testament to how urgent the situation has become for Ukraine and how few options remain. There is a legitimate chance the plan will backfire, altering global trade across dimensions that are hardly beneficial to the Western allies.

Given the heavy stakes involved, it is perhaps unsurprising that EU leaders delayed making the fateful decision for a few more months:

The European Union put off until December a decision on whether to tap frozen Russian central bank assets to aid Ukraine, threatening an effort to get Ukraine fresh funding by early 2026.

Talks stalled after Belgium demanded greater assurances it wouldn’t be held liable for risks linked to the proposed €140 billion ($163 billion) in loans, given the money is mostly held in Belgium.

The way this situation plays out could dramatically impact how the war ends, how countries trade with each other in the future, and what happens to the price of gold. Let’s head to Brussels and take a deeper look.

  https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.ama  

To understand what is at risk, one must first become familiar with Euroclear, where the Russian assets at issue are currently being held. Euroclear is a Belgium-based financial market infrastructure firm responsible for settling, clearing, and safekeeping securities transactions in European and international markets. The company plays a critical role in the back-office execution of countless financial transactions and serves as custodian for a wide range of institutional and sovereign clients, with over €38 trillion in assets under custody. In other words, it acts as a trusted intermediary between financial institutions—one that was never meant for the spotlight. A recent analysis by Fitch fills in more details:

Euroclear has a systemic role in the global post-trade services industry. It settles about 60% of the Eurobond market and services securities from over 40 countries, including bonds, equities, investment funds and derivatives. Euroclear’s balance sheet totalled EUR229 billion at end-1H25, of which EUR194 billion related to sanctioned Russian assets, mostly for the [Central Bank of Russia] CBR. As custodian, Euroclear has a duty of restitution if sanctions on Russia are lifted, potentially making the assets a liability, payable at sight. The immobilised assets have inflated Euroclear’s liabilities and its corresponding cash balances, currently invested in short-term, highly rated instruments.

A sudden collapse in trust in Euroclear’s perceived impartiality could prompt its clients to reallocate custody of their securities elsewhere. A coordinated withdrawal would impair Euroclear’s liquidity profile and cause severe consequences for Europe’s financial system, with spillover into EU sovereign debt markets just one of many potential negative consequences. The European Central Bank might be forced to intervene in the event of such a shock to Europe’s financial plumbing.

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Bad PR | Getty

While freezing the Russian assets was controversial enough, Western legal experts have advised that since the action was temporary and reversible, it did not constitute an outright seizure. The Russians vehemently disagree, of course, but it is widely acknowledged that the new EU loan scheme sure looks, walks, and quacks like confiscation. If you used the title to your neighbor’s home as collateral for a loan without their blessing, you would be rightly accused of fraud.

The lawyers hired by the EU to rubber-stamp the legality of the latest exercise are no doubt advising that the case for proceeding is strong, but in our experience, such advice shifts from “strong case” to “solid argument” just before trial begins, and “reasonable basis for appeal” thereafter. Lawyers are in the litigation business, after all, something the executives at Euroclear undoubtedly understand all too well.

Beyond the international reaction, there is also the question of what Russia would do in response. Hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Western assets remain stranded in the country, and Russian President Vladimir Putin recently signed an order that allows for their nationalization and swift sale in the event the EU moves forward with its plan. The country is also signaling that it will seek to bring criminal charges—including against executives of Euroclear—should the EU cross the Rubicon:

The Kremlin warned on Wednesday that it would seek the prosecution of individuals and countries engaged in the ‘theft’ of frozen Russian sovereign assets in Europe, as European leaders convened to discuss a proposal to lend $165 billion to Ukraine based on the frozen funds.

The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, made no distinction between stealing the frozen Russian assets and using them to extend a loan to Ukraine without seizing them, as top European leaders have proposed. ‘We are talking about theft,’ Mr. Peskov said in a call with reporters.

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Don’t do it | Getty

If Western debt is no longer widely considered neutral but instead is subject to the political whims of Washington and Brussels, it can no longer effectively serve as a reserve asset for much of the global community. There is, however, one asset that has minimal confiscation risk—assuming you are in physical possession of it—and has thousands of years of history serving just such a role: gold.

We note with interest that the Central Bank of Russia held 73.7 million ounces of gold at the end of 2021, and continues to hold slightly more than that today. Using the closing spot price that year of approximately $1,820 per ounce, those holdings were valued at $134 billion. After the selloff of the past week, spot gold is trading hands at the time of this writing for $4,100. Therefore, the increase in the value of Russia’s gold holdings since just before the war broke out amounts to $168 billion. Using a USD/Euro ratio of 1.16 converts this number to €145 billion, or essentially the total value of the frozen Russian assets that the EU is proposing to use for the loan.

There are no coincidences.

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What happens to gold if the Ukraine loans go through? Suffice it to say, the currently expected consolidation will be short-lived.

With the summit meeting between Trump and Putin in Hungary all but canceled, fresh waves of British-made long-range missiles fired deep into pre-2014 Russia, and Trump issuing new sanctions against Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil, the momentum behind seizing Russia’s assets in December looks unstoppable. So too does the likely end of this war: a full military defeat of one side.

The global order that will arise from such an outcome remains to be seen, but the old one looks to have now fully run its course.

 

 

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