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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

https://www.businessinsider.com/fifth-generation-jets-made-ukraine-war-russia-su-57-missing-2023-10

This article says Russia does not employ this airframe because they are afraid of them getting shot down and ruining their stealth reputation.   Nobody wants to buy Russian kit after seeing it suck.   If the new expensive wonder jet is really more like a flying Armata tank, they don’t want the bad press.   

Oh I posted it because I was laughing. It wasn't because I thought the Russians had a legit 5th generation jet.

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2 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Screenshot_20231204_141832.thumb.jpg.e58e44cf5ac06d87face4263c50dbc7d.jpg

I can see both sides - make bigger gains in one area (the south) and leave the other areas in maintenance/defense mode, but the Ukrainian way seems to have probably killed more Russians (who are trying to take the Avdiivka and other areas), and they've got the Russians spread thin.  The landings across the Dnipro seem to be proving that point - the Russians don't seem to be able to give up on Avdiivka and try and kick the Ukrainians back across the river.

And Ukraine is playing on Putin's ego and his (or one of his general's) obsession with Avdiivka.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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On 11/27/2023 at 9:36 AM, bolverk said:

It's probably too much to ask for this to grow into a groundswell of support for stopping the war, but some Russian soldiers' wives and relatives are starting to object to (not the war) indefinite mobilization in small regional protests. 

Russian Women Protest Long Deployments for Soldiers in Ukraine
“Make way for someone else,” a new grass-roots movement demands as women challenge the official argument that the mobilized troops are needed in combat indefinitely.

The woman in the video, her face blurred, gave a blunt assessment of Russian military policy: Soldiers mobilized over a year ago to fight in Ukraine deserved to come home. Why weren’t they?

“Our mobilized became the best army in the world, but that doesn’t mean that this army should stay there to the last man,” she said. “If he did something heroic, spilled blood for his country sincerely, then maybe it was time to return to his family, make way for someone else, but that’s not happening.”

The speaker was part of a new, grass-roots movement that has been gathering steam in Russia over the past several weeks. Women in various cities are seeking to stage public protests, challenging the official argument that mobilized troops are needed in combat indefinitely to secure their Russian homeland.

Hand-lettered posters behind the speaker in the video echoed that sentiment with slogans like “Do only the mobilized have a homeland?” A video of the speech, delivered at a rally in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk on Nov. 19, was released online.

The nascent movement is a rare example of public displeasure with the war, the kind that the Kremlin has sought to suppress through draconian laws meant to stifle antiwar demonstrations. The women and the government officials have been involved in a delicate dance, with the protesters trying not to trigger those laws while the authorities seek to avoid hauling the relatives of active duty soldiers off to jail.

The authorities have so far stepped lightly, using intimidation and cajoling rather than detention or arrests. Permits to hold rallies in several major cities were denied, for example, and women in chat forums have complained about harassment.

cont'd

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Some said law enforcement officers visited them at home to inquire about their online activity and to warn them of the legal consequences of attending unauthorized rallies.

One main outlet for the protest movement has been a channel on the Telegram messaging app called “Put Domoy” in Russian, or “The Way Home,” which has attracted more than 14,650 participants since it was founded in September.

The channel’s organizers published a manifesto pressing for mobilized soldiers to be sent home after a year in the combat zone. “Military servicemen and their families — unite and fight for your rights,” the manifesto said in part.

The authorities in Moscow and in Krasnoyarsk, in Siberia, rejected recent requests for a rally permit, with officials citing as the reason a restriction on public assemblies that was created to combat Covid-19. In Moscow, about 20 demonstrators unfurled posters with slogans like “No To Indefinite Mobilization” at a Communist Party rally on Nov. 7. The police led them away but did not detain them.

Maria Andreeva, who helped organize the Moscow protest, said that the government had largely responded by offering more money and benefits to families of soldiers. “They agree to pay us even more, but only if we keep quiet,” she said in an interview. “Many women need their husbands and sons, not payments.”

Participants in protests across the country are fed up, Ms. Andreeva said. While crowing that more than 410,000 men have signed contracts to join the military this year, the government has brushed aside demands from the families to demobilize those drafted in 2022.

The rally in Novosibirsk, held by a different organization, was the result of a compromise between organizers and the local authorities. Instead of a demonstration on the streets, local civilian and military officials gathered in a government auditorium. The press was largely banned, and participants had to prove that they had a relative serving in Ukraine.

Chelyabinsk, a major Russian city in the center of the country, held a similar meeting in its City Hall.

In Novosibirsk, the organizers said that countless women across Russia were “boiling” because all their quiet appeals and petitions fell on deaf ears. “The situation drove us, our relatives, to despair, and those mobilized to a critical degree of fatigue, both physical and moral,” the group said in a statement.

The groups protesting take pains to stress that they are not unpatriotic and that they strive to respect the law. They say they are simply asking that the Kremlin introduce troop rotations.

When the Russian government implemented what it called a “partial mobilization” in September 2022, calling up 300,000 men, it said those conscripted would have to stay in the military until Mr. Putin decided that they could be discharged.

Having already enacted one mobilization, ordering another one would be politically unpopular. In the meantime, tens of thousands of Russian soldiers have been killed and wounded, including many in ongoing assaults in Ukraine at places like Avdiivka.

The official response to the demand for rotation has been indirect at best. Protest organizers noted that Sergei Shoigu, the defense minister, made a statement last December saying that replacing the mobilized troops was one reason to raise the number of soldiers overall.

But this past September Andrei Kartapolov, the chairman of Parliament’s defense committee, said there would be no rotation for troops in Ukraine, noting that “They will return home after the special military operation is completed.” A petition with tens of thousands of signatures sent to the Kremlin evoked a similar response, Russian press reports said.

“Our men are already physically and mentally tired of being there,” said Ms. Andreeva. “That’s enough! We must act!”

A generation ago, an antiwar movement that coalesced around mothers opposed to the war in Chechnya was a significant factor in prompting the Kremlin to end the war there. The authorities have tried to ensure that no similar national movement emerges out of the current protests.

The subject of rotations is a delicate matter for the Kremlin, which is seeking to make sure that any protests remain a regional issue and do not become national news that Mr. Putin would be forced to address, said Tatiana Stanovaya, who recently wrote about the subject in her analytical newsletter, R.Politik.

“The Ministry of Defense is cautious, preferring to boost soldier numbers whenever possible and keep them at the front,” wrote Ms. Stanovaya. She said any decision on a new mobilization wave “would be especially undesirable in the run-up to the presidential election next year.”

At a recent seminar focused on the presidential election in March, held in a town called Senezh, near Moscow, regional officials received specific instructions to prevent the women’s protest movement from metastasizing into something larger, according to Russian press reports.

The authorities said a demonstration could provide an opening for foreign powers to sow chaos, according to the business daily Kommersant, which is sympathetic to the Kremlin. But in a nod to the protesters’ frustration, the officials were told that they needed to stay in touch with the women, to pay attention to their problems and to help solve them, the report said.

Another Russia publication, the independent online newspaper The Insider, quoted an unidentified regional official as saying the preferred strategy was to “persuade, promise, pay” to avoid any kind of displeasure to be expressed on the streets.

Some participants hoped that the protests would spark a wider questioning of the war.

One woman in the chat group described herself in text messages as a longtime participant in antigovernment rallies. Although she does not have any relatives fighting in Ukraine, she believes that the women’s anti-mobilization movement has real potential to grow.

Communicating anonymously to avoid criminal charges for questioning the official narrative of the war, she said she hoped to seed the online discussions with information that depicted an alternative to the rosy official picture of the war, to “sow doubts about the truthfulness of the words of officials and the president (well, he’s lying all the time).”

By raising doubts, she said, she hoped “that people begin to ask questions, to be interested in politics, to be interested in what is happening in the country.”

 

It's not indefinite mobilization, Putin just put a stop on the death notices.  Your husband/son isn't mobiked he's a meat cube.

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10 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

 

10 hours ago, Bevo said:

 

image.gif.19dfb6dc66768921a30f2b263481a2fa.gif

 

Sorry no F16s going up against 5th generation fighters.

 

Right, they only have 10-15 of them that can fly the last time I checked.

Reports of their stealth capabilities are greatly over-rated.  Apparently 10 times or more visible to radar than F22 or F35

 

 

Edited by TexasEd
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26 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

 

 

Right, they only have 10-15 of them that can fly the last time I checked.

Reports of their stealth capabilities are greatly over-rated.  Apparently 10 times or more visible to radar than F22 or F35

 

 

Counterpoint:

 

image.gif.1dfb57c88b96b29cdda10a6465534f36.gif

 

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16 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I can see both sides - make bigger gains in one area (the south) and leave the other areas in maintenance/defense mode, but the Ukrainian way seems to have probably killed more Russians (who are trying to take the Avdiivka and other areas), and they've got the Russians spread thin.  The landings across the Dnipro seem to be proving that point - the Russians don't seem to be able to give up on Avdiivka and try and kick the Ukrainians back across the river.

And Ukraine is playing on Putin's ego and his (or one of his general's) obsession with Avdiivka.

How can you be so sure of yourself and so wrong, repeatedly? You’re the perfect example of how isolated this thread has become.
 

If the Russians are spread so thin, how do they have the initiative almost everywhere? As for the bridgehead, not all great news there. 
 

 

You wouldn’t know from thread, but things are going to shit quickly.

 

 

I thought Russia was weak?
 

 

Bottom line is the prognostications here have been wrong. Y’all trumpet the same wrong 5 or 6 accounts from Twitter, so you come up with the wrong plans to get the outcome you want. Russia was always going to care about this more than us. So either we should’ve let the Istanbul negotiations go through and reach a ceasefire or we needed to ramp shit up. We broke up the initial peace negotiations because we wanted to weaken Russia and now they’ve cranked up their military production massively. Dumb 

 

And this will all get deleted because the truth is hard to face. 
 

 

Edited by Ken Griffey Jr
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10 minutes ago, Ken Griffey Jr said:

If the Russians are spread so thin, how do they have the initiative almost everywhere?

And yet, somehow, they can't remove Ukraine from their landings across the Dnipro.

And for 21 months, Russia, with the world's 2nd-largest military, somehow can't take the Avdiivka area, that is only 53 miles from the Russian border

21 months and tens of thousands of Russian casualties, and they just can't close the deal.

53 miles from the Russian border.

And you should check Russian social media - the Russians are constantly melting down over the problems they face/can't overcome.

 

Edited by atomheartbevo
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17 minutes ago, Ken Griffey Jr said:

How can you be so sure of yourself and so wrong, repeatedly? You’re the perfect example of how isolated this thread has become.
 

If the Russians are spread so thin, how do they have the initiative almost everywhere? As for the bridgehead, not all great news there. 
 

 

You wouldn’t know from thread, but things are going to shit quickly.

 

 

I thought Russia was weak?
 

 

Bottom line is the prognostications here have been wrong. Y’all trumpet the same wrong 5 or 6 accounts from Twitter, so you come up with the wrong plans to get the outcome you want. Russia was always going to care about this more than us. So either we should’ve let the Istanbul negotiations go through and reach a ceasefire or we needed to ramp shit up. We broke up the initial peace negotiations because we wanted to weaken Russia and now they’ve cranked up their military production massively. Dumb 

 

And this will all get deleted because the truth is hard to face. 
 

 

getting "tipped off" to where Ukr is going to make a landing and then landing being made nonetheless isn't exactly a testament to strength

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1 minute ago, 27-25 said:

Just 53 miles from their own border.  Strong indeed.

And it's not merely 53 miles from the Russian border, it's 5 miles away from territory that Russia has controlled for 9 years, and in 21 months they haven't been able to take it.

I get that quantity has a quality all its own, and that it's not just a Vic Mackey saying, but that's an insane amount of casualties/deaths to give up for that.

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also, while we are postulating how much of Ukr we should give Russia, here is a little more light reading to throw on the pile:  NKVD's liquidation of Ukr prisons*.

 

https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/1941-nkvd-prison-massacres-western-ukraine

 

*prison here is code for "educated people."

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1 minute ago, statsman said:
What happens when Russian convicts freed to fight in Ukraine come back home? “Thousands of criminals are walking our streets.”
https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-convicts-ukraine-wagner-storm-z-prigozhin-0fe28acc?reflink=share_mobilewebshare

 

Sent from my iPhone

i pay for nyt and wapo, so i'm doing my part to not be a journalism mooch.  can someone copy / paste?   

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Sorry- I thought I was logged in and I wasn’t. This should be the shareable link
 
What happens when Russian convicts freed to fight in Ukraine come back home? “Thousands of criminals are walking our streets.”
https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-convicts-ukraine-wagner-storm-z-prigozhin-0fe28acc?st=af918y2ebiq99me&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

 

Sent from my iPhone
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14 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i pay for nyt and wapo, so i'm doing my part to not be a journalism mooch.  can someone copy / paste?   

 

16 minutes ago, statsman said:
What happens when Russian convicts freed to fight in Ukraine come back home? “Thousands of criminals are walking our streets.”
https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-convicts-ukraine-wagner-storm-z-prigozhin-0fe28acc?reflink=share_mobilewebshare

 

Sent from my iPhone

 

11 minutes ago, statsman said:
Sorry- I thought I was logged in and I wasn’t. This should be the shareable link
 
What happens when Russian convicts freed to fight in Ukraine come back home? “Thousands of criminals are walking our streets.”
https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-convicts-ukraine-wagner-storm-z-prigozhin-0fe28acc?st=af918y2ebiq99me&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

 

Sent from my iPhone

 

 

https://archive.ph/c5i0X

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26 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

getting "tipped off" to where Ukr is going to make a landing and then landing being made nonetheless isn't exactly a testament to strength

You should read the actual article. The landing is going nowhere. 
 

Here’s another interesting figure I saw recently. 
 

 

Uk estimates 70,000 dead, counting Wagner. Less than I expected. 
 

 

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Yo, Junior...

On April 16, 1945 the Russians started their bombardment of the last defensive line in front of Berlin at the Seelow Height  (56 miles away. )  They encircled the city 7 days later.   

The Russians have been fighting the Ukrainians for 649 days.  

It's going so swimmingly for them.

 

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2 minutes ago, Ken Griffey Jr said:

Uk estimates 70,000 dead, counting Wagner. Less than I expected. 

Yeah, that seems undercounted by thousands/tens of thousands, given how many Russian officers have been verified as being killed (over 3,200).  And the folks verifying the dead Russian officers continue adding deaths to the total that occurred earlier this year, as well as 2022.

But even with that lowball estimate, that's right around what the US and Soviet Union combined lost in 10 years of Vietnam and 10 years of Afghanistan.

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43 minutes ago, statsman said:
Sorry- I thought I was logged in and I wasn’t. This should be the shareable link
 
What happens when Russian convicts freed to fight in Ukraine come back home? “Thousands of criminals are walking our streets.”
https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-convicts-ukraine-wagner-storm-z-prigozhin-0fe28acc?st=af918y2ebiq99me&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

 

Sent from my iPhone
Quote

Sofonov’s mother said men like her son should never have been released from prison. “If they end up in Ukraine,” she said. “They should stay there until the end.” 

what a charming little community russia has made for itself.

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Russia is at war with the Baltics.  Russia is at war with the Balkans.  Russia has always been at war with the Baltics.  Russia has always been at war with the Balkans.  

We are backfilling the demise of a rotten empire with our 2-generations old weapons platform.  The cash is for food and medicine.  That's all this play ever was about.  This was never about Putin or politics or even Ukraine.  This is us cleaning out the closets and storage bins before Christmas.  Because the thing coming next year requires new toys.  Sorry some of you are the wrong side of history.  Despots come and go.  You just keep picking shitty ones.  But sometimes killing children and raping women to curry favor has consequences.  

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19 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Why would we want this to stop?

All the dead Ukrainians? Decimation of their country? I certainly do get the cynical view that rubblizing and rebuilding parts of Ukraine will make some people money. There’s always unintended consequences though.
 

Look what’s happening to Germany.  Vast deindustrialization. They’ll be moving to rust belt status in the future. How will that be handled by their population? Not well, I’m guessing. And I’m no saying I know how that could’ve been prevented, but a lot of this thread is Go Team! without even knowing if it’s true or what will be the fallout. 
 

20 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Russia is militarily weaker than it was in January 2022, and that decline is continuing.

In terms of manpower yes, but they’ve been battle tested in the new ways of war and ramped their spend significantly. 

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This is your definition of 'battle tested'?  Holy shit, great NCO morale speech dude.  Having your squad-level position advancements radio'd in to drones/artillery/light infantry on a daily basis only to end in inevitable death is not battle-testing.  It's a video game for which there is no reset.  Putin can blow on the cartridge all he wants.  This is just weapons systems NATO forgot to drop off at Goodwill meeting a 7-digit casualty grinder to appease a handful of narcissistic sociopaths.  It'd be fucking hilarious if it weren't for, as you point out, the suffering of many Ukrainians.  It's the growing pains of a dying planet.  This isn't the thing.  But it's the thing that gets us to the thing.

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Yeah, I like how Russia magic'd it to be "5th Generation" despite an actual regression of technology/sortie deployment.  It's like the Cousin Oliver of theatrical warfare.  When shit's going south and ratings are down, bring in a "new" cast member, in this case...poorly made, leased fighter jets.  

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