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Posted
15 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

not sure why russia just doesn't empty the missile cupboards on ukraine ?

My opinion - Putin has no plans to stop committing war crimes and finding new targets, including a Baltic nation. The only way for him to stay in command is to find new ways to expand the war.

 

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Posted

And think of the paranoia going around Russian military leaders atm.  Are the SURE the attacks are done?  You’d think they’re gonna hafta tie up alotta resources going around checking suspicious sheds and shithouses.

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Posted

if i was ukraine, target all the infrastructure you can ...

power generation 

key bridges

water 

waste water

rail hubs 

 

im sure they're limited on supply and stop giving the US prior knowledge. 

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Posted
3 hours ago, choripan said:

Okay, first, and far more important, LET'S FUCKING GO! 40+ bombers knocked out is huge!!

For those that are interested, here's my post on my impressions of Ukrainians:

  Reveal hidden contents

Culturally, there seems to be a pretty big difference between younger Ukranians and older Ukranians, especially those that spent their formative years under Soviet rule. The younger folks almost all speak some English, are vibrant, cosmopolitan, and knowledgeable of the broader world, and are more western-facing – for example, during one workday, about half the songs that the twentysomething girl DJing via a Bluetooth speaker put on were in English, or were reggaeton – while the older folks are more Russian-speaking and more distant or socially cautious. For example, there was this packed club a couple blocks from my apartment where they played Turn Down for What and No Lie by 2 Chainz/Drake when I was walking by.

 

And this is a cocktail bar that was 2/3 full on a Wednesday. It had all the classics and some creative twists. If you’re wondering, that was a Last Word – they actually had Green Chartreuse on hand!

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/nTfBE3earhA?si=MtSnUizJh3Uf2Pjz" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Also, the younger folks are generally larger and “healthier” seeming, being meatier with better skin and teeth. I’ve heard this about Chinese folk, and it may be the same thing here tied to nutrition and that kind of stuff. Sample size of only like a couple thousand people, probably, but those are my observations. I’ll be honest, a lot of the older people look kind of rough and I feel bad for them. Here’s the “line” of folks waiting to get food, clothing, and other essentials on the day I volunteered with a group distributing that kind of stuff.

 

Also, as a personal observation, the people looked like me and I looked like them! 3 of my 4 grandparents are either from Ukraine or Eastern Poland, and I fit right in. As a lighter-skinned black woman (her, not me), my ex always talked about how comfortable she felt in the Bronx, or New Orleans, or other places where she just blended in. I intellectually understood, but never “felt” it. This was the first time I felt it in my core, and let me tell you, it felt kind of good. (Side note/background, I grew up as an ethnic, Catholic white in a northern city, and like many families, my grandparents had portraits on the wall of John Paul II and JFK. And they never let you forget that the only time “they” [Protestant folk of British, Dutch, German, etc. heritage] gave “us” [Catholics/ethnics] a chance was with JFK, they shot him, and then it was right back to people named Carter, Bush, and Clinton.) So it was nice to be surrounded by it and, for example, be asked by old babushkas to help get something down from a high shelf at the grocery store. First, that told me that I look like I belong, in contrast to where I usually travel in Latin America, and, second, it implies that the general underlying culture is one in which it’s okay for an old lady to ask for help and it’s expected that the “youngster” will help out. For example, I was taking a selfie in front of St. Andrews and someone was quick to offer to take this picture for me.

St-Andrews.jpg

Regardless of whether more cautious or warm, everyone was welcoming and open to help with questions. When they learned that I was in town to volunteer, they would light up and go above and beyond to help like, for example, often INSISTING they walk you to the place you asked about. The Google Translate conversation feature was spectacular, by the way. How amazing is it that we live in a world with something that approximates Star Trek’s universal translator? Speaking of directions, I imagine you may be thinking “just use your Maps app, dummy,” but electronic warfare and GPS jamming stuff is so common around that your GPS location on your phone is often unreliable, so it’s back to looking at your map, street signs, and occasionally asking a passerby for help. For example, here is from when a new friend was giving me the rundown on what the other side of the Dnipro is like, how people commute, etc.

 

 Another interesting thing is that she (and I’d guess an actual majority of younger people) smoke these hybrid e-cigarettes. It’s like an e-cig in that you have to charge it, but it uses tiny (maybe like 2-3 inches) “real” cigarettes that go into it. Seemed like the worst of both worlds to me, but they are incredibly popular there.

IMG-2054.jpg

And since I ain’t no yellow-bellied nancy, I had to at least try it, and she was happy to share.

IMG-2055.jpg

Not gonna lie, it hit like a freight train compared to a cigarette or a vape, and it took everything I had to keep my fragile masculinity intact and not cough in front of her.

And there’s something to be said for the resolve of the typical Ukrainian. People are fed up with the war, but they realize it’s a war for survival and that there’s no choice but to fight. They are resilient and live a “normal life” during the day and up to around 10-11pm, by which many folks are sure to get home to beat the midnight curfew, because consequences are serious if you’re out after midnight without papers. Here’s a video of what would otherwise seem like normal life in Shevchenko park.

 

And, I’m not going to lie, the saddest and most angry I got was about 5 minutes after that video, when I walked by a kids’ playground and saw dozens of kids playing on structures, swings, etc. I just stood there for 3-4 minutes and watched the kids play (no R Kelly) and thought, “Fuck. This is normal life for them, but normal life also includes hiding in a basement or a shelter almost every night. They are totally innocent and their normal includes being scared and bombed because of a madman thousands of kilometers away.” I did speak with a few parents while in Kyiv and, inasmuch as I mentioned how a lot of people are numb to it and don’t seek shelter anymore, every single parent with younger (12U) kids said they go to shelter every time, and they and their kids are tired. For example, this new friend of mine has an 8yo daughter and lives out by the airport, which has a fuel depot nearby, and says her building shakes every night from the attacks, and that she’s with her daughter in the building’s basement pretty much every night that it’s her custody night.

 

As for outward-looking, the general consensus about foreign governments seems to be a mix of thankful, dismayed/disappointed, and confused about herky-jerky, unreliable support. In contrast, the folks I talked to are deeply appreciative of individual foreigners that are coming; first, for the direct impacts of their volunteering and, second and one I didn’t think about, it brings in a substantial amount of additional money to an economy which is deeply affected by the war. For example, I ate at restaurants, drank at bars, paid for a place to stay, bought stuff, and so on, and all that is probably about $1000-1500 that wouldn’t have been there. Multiply it by tens of thousands of volunteers and visitors and it makes an impact on a country that was not that wealthy even before the Russian aggression.

Finally, a bit of a fun one. Guys are macho everywhere, but probably a little more in Slavlandia. Some dude brought out one of those punching games you see at bars, set it up on the sidewalk, and was charging people to hit it. He was PRINTING money. There was always a small, ever-changing crowd of spectators around the machine, judging and signaling approval or disapproval after a punch, and men would come up and take their swing. I doubt the machine got a break for more than 30 seconds. Just a total public dick-measuring contest and, I mean, let he who has not put tens of dollars into the punching machine at the Beach on Bourbon Street cast the first stone.

Punching-Game.jpg

 Future installments will be food and drink, the volunteering experience, and a special Krakow side quest post.

Before this gets lost in the news today - what a great post, and thanks for sharing (and volunteering). Would love to hear more and get your report on Krakow. Been there many times, but it’s been about 20 years at this point. 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Parliament said:

In terms of audacity, tactical success and strategic importance, how does this compare to Israel’s pager attacks of last year?

More probably. These were weapons used against a lot of other nations. They would have been front line in any move vs. Nato.

The Hamas hit was targeted against a local ally.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Parliament said:

In terms of audacity, tactical success and strategic importance, how does this compare to Israel’s pager attacks of last year?

Very hard to compare because so different in terms of targets, environment, capabilities on both sides. And this early, it’s still hard to tell the full impact. Ukraine’s for sure carries much higher risk of severe and unacceptable retaliation so on that note, it’s far more audacious and a sign of a state  actor under serious stress. 

In terms of value, it’s very different things. It is likely that Russia values the survival of top-echelon political leadership over survival of all three legs of its nuclear triad. But, only just, because the latter is seen as a guarantor of the former. 
 

 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Very hard to compare because so different in terms of targets, environment, capabilities on both sides. And this early, it’s still hard to tell the full impact. Ukraine’s for sure carries much higher risk of severe and unacceptable retaliation so on that note, it’s far more audacious and a sign of a state  actor under serious stress. 

In terms of value, it’s very different things. It is likely that Russia values the survival of top-echelon political leadership over survival of all three legs of its nuclear triad. But, only just, because the latter is seen as a guarantor of the former. 
 

 

I was trying to think about what follow-up attacks similar to the pager double-tap might be possible in this scenario. Maybe the ensuing scramble helps reveal the locations of remaining air assets and air defense, which can then be targeted in smaller-scale attacks. 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

I was trying to think about what follow-up attacks similar to the pager double-tap might be possible in this scenario. Maybe the ensuing scramble helps reveal the locations of remaining air assets and air defense, which can then be targeted in smaller-scale attacks. 

oil  

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Posted
The amateur historian in me can't help but draw some similarities to the Battle of Taranto, in which Britain conducted the first successful naval airstrike that downed combat ready battleships and cruisers. The British pulled it off because nobody thought it was possible - they only had rinky dink wood and canvas Swordfish biplanes. That attack in 1940 is what proved the concept of naval aviation, and directly inspired the IJN attack on Pearl Harbor.
I feel like another military tectonic shift happening with the success of these drone strikes. This is a victory that could have tipped the scales during the Cold War, or at least caused the USSR to significantly back off due to a leg of its nuclear triad getting kneecapped. Ukraine did pulled it off with fuckin QUADCOPTERS! The weapon efficiency seen on the video is wild - "that one is burning, next one, next one, oh I'll hit that one that isn't burning yet"

Agreed, though this is more akin to a simultaneous SAS strike on Taranto, Brest, Le Havre, Toulon and Kiel in my opinion.

The complexity and elegance of execution are simply breathtaking… I hope there’s more!
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Posted

Take this with a grain of salt because it came from X, but several posters on different threads have this quote  from undisclosed Russian media source:

Quote

"National Disgrace on level with Pearl Harbour" - Russian Media 

I am including it without confirmation because it seems to be very much in line with Russia’s World War II ego-centric view of things.   It appears the translation might be a British source  based on the spelling of harbour?

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Posted
3 hours ago, Parliament said:

If Trump wasn’t told, we’ll see him tweet his disapproval shortly.

This was a massive success, so of course he'll not only claim he knew, but that he approved, and probably that he gave them some advice.

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Posted
58 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Take this with a grain of salt because it came from X, but several posters on different threads have this quote  from undisclosed Russian media source:

I am including it without confirmation because it seems to be very much in line with Russia’s World War II ego-centric view of things.   It appears the translation might be a British source  based on the spelling of harbour?

There is a much higher than zero chance that Russian state actors consciously selected this metaphor to prod the U.S. admin and supporters to identify with Russia.  Average Russians have an extremely surface level understanding of war in the Pacific and stuff aimed at them would pick a different and more resonant example. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There is a much higher than zero chance that Russian state actors consciously selected this metaphor to prod the U.S. admin and supporters to identify with Russia.  Average Russians have an extremely surface level understanding of war in the Pacific and stuff aimed at them would pick a different and more resonant example. 

Very good point. If they wanted to make it resonate with the Russians what event would they discuss? Has to be 1941 and Barbarossa.

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Posted
6 hours ago, Jameslaw121 said:

Can someone put this in context for me. How many total numbers do they have. 

6 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Yeah this is way more impactful than the Moskva fucking off to be a submarine.  Huge, coordinated tactical assault which is crippling an asset Russia can’t produce anymore.  Daddy Xi going to sell them new planes for a lot of money soon.

Somebody has already told you the numbers (about a third of their heavy aircraft), but the real story is that the majority of those aircraft were produced from the 1960s-80s, in Ukraine.  Ukraine was where much of their heavy aircraft manufacturing was situated during the Cold War.  Russia only cranks out something like 2-4 large bombers a year, and there's no boneyard in a high desert that they can easily pull cared-for aircraft out of and get them online in a few months.

Even if they only took out 20 aircraft (and I saw one of the OSINT people saying they visually confirmed 7 aircraft at one field, so it's probably a decent amount higher than 20), that could put a huge dent in their operational tempo - they are old aircraft that require a lot of maintenance to begin with.  

5 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

pretty impressive. 

even if its only a few bombers, its gonna cause Russia to have to take a lot of soldiers off the front line to protect their airbases all over the country. 

Yep, they will have to constantly search trucks in the border regions and around all bases and will also probably shift more air defenses from the border areas/bases to Moscow and St. Petersburg and the whatever air bases are their most valuable now - my guess is they will move the remaining aircraft to more isolated bases

3 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

and no way russia has the parts to repair even a slightly damaged bomber 

Well, I'd say they have 30-40 aircraft that will provide at least some parts.

But yeah, most of those production lines shut down in the 80s (they have I think one remaining line for one of their heavy bombers, but it only makes 2-4 bombers a year).

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Posted
8 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Very good point. If they wanted to make it resonate with the Russians what event would they discuss? Has to be 1941 and Barbarossa.

June 22 1941 is probably the single most disastrous day in Russian military history, it would make a good analogy.

 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There is a much higher than zero chance that Russian state actors consciously selected this metaphor to prod the U.S. admin and supporters to identify with Russia.  Average Russians have an extremely surface level understanding of war in the Pacific and stuff aimed at them would pick a different and more resonant example. 

 

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Very good point. If they wanted to make it resonate with the Russians what event would they discuss? Has to be 1941 and Barbarossa.

This makes absolute sense.   Stalin foolishly had all of those new air fields near their western border that was easily accessible to the Luftwaffe.

Hitler’s surprise attack did a great job of establishing day one air superiority. I think Germany destroyed something like 2000 (?) Soviet planes  in opening  operations.     On one hand, that devastation far exceeds yesterday’s less than 40 planes.  But on the other hand, it is similar in that your foe traveled thousands of miles and struck you and you had no idea it was coming.. 

But since those bombers were destroying civilian targets regularly, the comparison to Pearl Harbor fails when considering the moral culpability  for conducting the attack without warning.    Their propaganda continues to be “how dare the country we invaded protect itself?” 

That is going to be a tough sale - winning hearts and minds for Russia when it was a strictly military target Ukrainian operation.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Captainant said:

I feel like another military tectonic shift happening with the success of these drone strikes. 

Yep.  There was some idiotic notion of enveloping the US in some kind of "Iron Dome" like Israel has, and this should put that to rest.  All you need to do to defeat it is to park some vehicles near key installations and you can cripple the air defenses.

And given that Russia is the only country that can really do a massive aerial attack against the US, and they would never do that, it was kind of pointless to begin with.

We are now rushing towards a future where a country could take a third-party cargo ship, pack it with hundreds of drones, and park it in another country's port, within that country's air defenses, and absolutely cripple a city with attacks against the electrical grid, naval ships, air defenses, etc.

From an earlier post:

bafkreigtvwbvcsk7memae4icrfjaz6h2nyei47t

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Posted
1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

We are now rushing towards a future where a country could take a third-party cargo ship, pack it with hundreds of drones, and park it in another country's port, within that country's air defenses, and absolutely cripple a city with attacks against the electrical grid, naval ships, air defenses, etc

IMG_2692.gif.b496a1d3f4389cf938dde71c309c2009.gif

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Posted
4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yep.  There was some idiotic notion of enveloping the US in some kind of "Iron Dome" like Israel has, and this should put that to rest.  All you need to do to defeat it is to park some vehicles near key installations and you can cripple the air defenses.

And given that Russia is the only country that can really do a massive aerial attack against the US, and they would never do that, it was kind of pointless to begin with.

We are now rushing towards a future where a country could take a third-party cargo ship, pack it with hundreds of drones, and park it in another country's port, within that country's air defenses, and absolutely cripple a city with attacks against the electrical grid, naval ships, air defenses, etc.

From an earlier post:

bafkreigtvwbvcsk7memae4icrfjaz6h2nyei47t

Spoke with a gent this morning about new warfare. He has a bit of , ,um, experience.

Says around 1980 the US was already looking at shit like this and SAC Security Officers are probably pretty nervous right now. Think of Barksdale.

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Posted

Serious question: china can’t mount a serious air attack? I don’t claim to be an expert but I thought between missiles and aircraft they’d be at least as capable as the Russians? Especially at this point with Russian losses?

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