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Elizabeth Warren 2020


Hugo Stiglitz

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16 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Mr. Rogers would have been a great president you asshole.

Mr. Rogers was the first person that came to mind when I read his post. Then I thought of my 6th grade social studies teacher who dressed like Mr. Rogers.

 

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On 7/18/2019 at 12:17 AM, UTDD said:

  I also would like to hear this plan more specifically into why this type of tax would work better versus things like capital gains, wealth transfers, real estate transfers/income (investment properties not primary homes), higher income tax rates, etc.  Especially tying taxes to real property as it is more difficult to "offshore" investment income based on an asset that cannot be moved out of the United States. 

everything you mentioned in your first sentence is some form of income tax.  you do wealth taxes alongside income taxes.  you do wealth taxes because income taxes require a realization event.*  since you need a realization event, if you're superwealthy you can avoid taxes by choosing when to take income.  most people don't have that luxury. 

it's the 21st century.  land is only a small component of wealth anymore.

 

 

*it doesn't necessarily have to be that way, but that's the law,  commissioner v. glenshaw glass

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7 minutes ago, elfenix said:

everything you mentioned in your first sentence is some form of income tax.  you do wealth taxes alongside income taxes.  you do wealth taxes because income taxes require a realization event.*  since you need a realization event, if you're superwealthy you can avoid taxes by choosing when to take income.  most people don't have that luxury. 

it's the 21st century.  land is only a small component of wealth anymore.

 

 

*it doesn't necessarily have to be that way, but that's the law,  commissioner v. glenshaw glass

Which raises an interesting point.  The closest we have to a wealth tax is an estate tax and it has a realization event, death.  What is the realization event for a wealth tax.  Or does it just keep getting taxed annually as long as it exists?

And now, I don't recall if Warren's 2% is a wealth tax or an income tax.

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4 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Which raises an interesting point.  The closest we have to a wealth tax is an estate tax and it has a realization event, death.  What is the realization event for a wealth tax.  Or does it just keep getting taxed annually as long as it exists? 

And now, I don't recall if Warren's 2% is a wealth tax or an income tax.

it's a wealth tax and it's annually.  just like that kinda-wealth tax that real estate owners in texas pay. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/18/upshot/warren-wealth-tax.html

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Beyond real estate, I also pay a wealth tax in Virginia on my family cars.   Several hundred bucks a year to the state, based on some assessment they make of the value of the cars.   It's a great idea nationally, applied to super wealthy folks, but it may require a constitutional amendment. 

Edited by Mojo Hand
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Frankly, I see no evidence that your mind can be changed or even reached in this matter. I also don't feel like trying to do so. 
Yes, I'm terrified of being challenged. I choose not to play a role in your play.
I said it would be wise to look the part of the role she will play. I don't think that's a cardigan and slacks. If a man I was voting for wore a cardigan and slacks, I'd say the same thing.
You're not going to force me down a road of your choosing. 
Thanks so much for the explanation about sexism. I've been so busy unconsciously persecuting women, that I clearly missed it. 
You don't know much about me, but you are very sure about me. Isn't that the essence of prejudice? Not racial or sexual prejudice, just plain prejudice.
 


Is there a glitch in tapa? Because it looks like you just quoted/responded to your own statement, and in so doing, called your own actions the essence of prejudice.
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30 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Yes, I'm terrified of being challenged. I choose not to play a role in your play.
I said it would be wise to look the part of the role she will play. I don't think that's a cardigan and slacks. If a man I was voting for wore a cardigan and slacks, I'd say the same thing.
You're not going to force me down a road of your choosing. 
Thanks so much for the explanation about sexism. I've been so busy unconsciously persecuting women, that I clearly missed it. 
You don't know much about me, but you are very sure about me. Isn't that the essence of prejudice? Not racial or sexual prejudice, just plain prejudice.
 


Is there a glitch in tapa? Because it looks like you just quoted/responded to your own statement, and in so doing, called your own actions the essence of prejudice.

I thought the post would be below my friend, BamaChick's, and would restate my position as to answering. Sadly, I was too slow and it probably does look as you describe.

I can't speak for tapa. I don't use it.

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Yep. I am more on the E-Warren train myself. She was great last night, but I think my first choice Pete is dead in the water and Warren is gonna go the distance. I think as this thing drags on you will see more like me who go from Pete -> Warren.

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46 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Yeah, how funny that a woman would get upset by sexism.  Little lady needs to calm down, amirite? 

No.  I just think its funny that a poster who comments more than any other poster on the politics board about choice of dress and physical appearance of political figures is going hard on Roma over a comment related to choice of dress.  

Edited by Anastasis
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For those concerned about how Warren might play in the Midwest, go to pages 177-178 of this poll asking who's their first choice in the primary.

Warren 26%

Biden 16%

Buttigieg 14%

Sanders 10%

Harris 7%

Biden does best in the Northeast (30%) and the South (33%). The West slightly favors Sanders (21%) over Warren (19%) with Biden (15%) and Harris (13%.) further behind.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/n0eqovafro/econTabReport.pdf

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9 minutes ago, bolverk said:

For those concerned about how Warren might play in the Midwest, go to pages 177-178 of this poll asking who's their first choice in the primary.

Warren 26%

Biden 16%

Buttigieg 14%

Sanders 10%

Harris 7%

Biden does best in the Northeast (30%) and the South (33%). The West slightly favors Sanders (21%) over Warren (19%) with Biden (15%) and Harris (13%.) further behind.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/n0eqovafro/econTabReport.pdf

"Asked of those who say they will vote in the Democratic Presidential primary or caucus in 2020"

Here's your problem. I really want to find some confidence in her ability to win the general, because I think she's by far the best candidate in the field right now. But I'm concerned about her ability to win that area amongst general election voters. Wish this poll had a similar question, but for all voters. Is there a favorability amongst all voters by dem candidate in there? No way I'm looking through hundreds of pages right now.. I'm trying to drink bourbon. 

Edited by BradInATX
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11 minutes ago, bolverk said:

For those concerned about how Warren might play in the Midwest, go to pages 177-178 of this poll asking who's their first choice in the primary.

Warren 26%

Biden 16%

Buttigieg 14%

Sanders 10%

Harris 7%

Biden does best in the Northeast (30%) and the South (33%). The West slightly favors Sanders (21%) over Warren (19%) with Biden (15%) and Harris (13%.) further behind.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/n0eqovafro/econTabReport.pdf

Good stuff.  Also page 180... 40% of voters age 18-29 would be disappointed if Biden is the nominee.  That’s the highest number across the board for all candidates.

 

63F41F50-2684-4AE3-89A6-14D1C6D19649_zps

 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

"Asked of those who say they will vote in the Democratic Presidential primary or caucus in 2020"

Here's your problem. I really want to find some confidence in her ability to win the general, because I think she's by far the best candidate in the field right now. But I'm concerned about her ability to win that area amongst general election voters. Wish this poll had a similar question, but for all voters. Is there a favorability amongst all voters by dem candidate in there?

I'm fully aware that it was regarding primary voters - hence my phrasing in the post. But, to your question, I haven't made it all the way through yet. As of that page, no comparison in the head-to-head against teh Dolan.

Edit: Went back to the Table of Contents and it doesn't look like they address that in this poll. Also, sorry if that came out a bit terse - it's been a long week and I'm pretty worn out.

Edited by bolverk
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6 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I'm fully aware that it was regarding primary voters - hence my phrasing in the post. But, to your question, I haven't made it all the way through yet. As of that page, no comparison in the head-to-head against teh Dolan.

Edit: Went back to the Table of Contents and it doesn't look like they address that in this poll. Also, sorry if that came out a bit terse - it's been a long week and I'm pretty worn out.

All good - no offense taken. Had a crazy week myself, and I do this stuff 8-10 hours a day (not polling, but data) and no way I want to look at any more on a Friday night.

It's annoying that we get decent head-to-head vs. Trump polling nationally, and decent state-by-state polling but that's only amongst dem voters, etc. I like two candidates the most on an actual "I want them to be president" level, and they're the two of the top five that I have the most concerns with on electability. I really want to see some state by state head to head vs. Trump data. I'm assuming we'll get some as we get closer to go time.

Edited by BradInATX
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6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

But I'm concerned about her ability to win that area amongst general election voters.

People had the same concerns with Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016.  There were always serious doubts in their ability to win the general... We are still in the early part of this process.  Warren has six months left to keep her movement growing until the first votes are cast. 

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1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

People had the same concerns with Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016.  There were always serious doubts in their ability to win the general... We are still in the early part of this process.  Warren has six months left to keep her movement growing until the first votes are cast. 

Nobody in this field has even a fraction of the charisma that Obama or Trump have. The good guys are going to have to find a different way to win. Warren isn't going to enjoy a meteoric rise that nobody saw coming (and BTW, lots of people saw Obama coming). She's going to have to do it the old fashioned way. And she's doing a great job so far. But it's an uphill battle for her in the states that matter.

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4 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

All good - no offense taken. Had a crazy week myself, and I do this stuff 8-10 hours a day (not polling, but data) and no way I want to look at any more on a Friday night.

It's annoying that we get decent head-to-head vs. Trump polling nationally, and decent state-by-state polling but that's only amongst dem voters, etc. I like two candidates the most on an actual "I want them to be president" level, and they're the two of the top five that I have the most concerns with on electability. I really want to see some state by state head to head vs. Trump data. I'm assuming we'll get some as we get closer to go time.

I imagine it's too early to put each Dem candidate up against Trump on a regional level in these polls, because realistically once the primaries are in full swing the field will narrow from state to state  across the country. That said, I too would like to see some regional numbers against him. I personally believe that it'll come down to either Warren or Biden at the end of the primary process and we should have a much better idea about their regional support by then.

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5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Nobody in this field has even a fraction of the charisma that Obama or Trump have. The good guys are going to have to find a different way to win. Warren isn't going to enjoy a meteoric rise that nobody saw coming (and BTW, lots of people saw Obama coming). She's going to have to do it the old fashioned way. And she's doing a great job so far. But it's an uphill battle for her in the states that matter.

I don't know, I think her charisma is underrated.   There's a reason she was a Dr. Phil and Daily Show guest before she was that famous — she can be pretty entertaining in a nerdy way, like Neil Degrasse Tyson.   People forget that about her.    She's the only major candidate who is steadily growing in support as more people see her in action rather than either treading or having big bumps and dips.   And her events are starting to have a lot of excitement, with the selfie lines and everything.

She's not like Obama, who is cool, or Trump, who can charm shitheads.   But she's really gifted at communicating actual policy in an interesting way.  And if she does take the nomination, I don't think that many people will have really seen it coming.   She's always been viewed as a niche liberal who could never actually win nationwide.   I know I never expected her to be this good at campaigning for president. 

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12 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

I don't know, I think her charisma is underrated.   There's a reason she was a Dr. Phil and Daily Show guest before she was that famous — she can be pretty entertaining in a nerdy way, like Neil Degrasse Tyson.   People forget that about her.    She's the only major candidate who is steadily growing in support as more people see her in action rather than either treading or having big bumps and dips.   And her events are starting to have a lot of excitement, with the selfie lines and everything.

She's not like Obama, who is cool, or Trump, who can charm shitheads.   But she's really gifted at communicating actual policy in an interesting way.  And if she does take the nomination, I don't think that many people will have really seen it coming.   She's always been viewed as a niche liberal who could never actually win nationwide.   I know I never expected her to be this good at campaigning for president. 

Completely agree on all counts, particularly that I didn't give her enough credit. She's a beast and has impressed the hell out of me with her savvy and marketing ability. 

I'm just not sure "communicating actual policy in an interesting way" matters in the rust belt. Hope I'm wrong.

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23 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Completely agree on all counts, particularly that I didn't give her enough credit. She's a beast and has impressed the hell out of me with her savvy and marketing ability. 

I'm just not sure "communicating actual policy in an interesting way" matters in the rust belt. Hope I'm wrong.

I'm thinking that as long as she talks to them at all, she'll make some headway.  That was part of Trump's appeal:  he talked to people that coastal elites ignored.  The question is whether you have to tell them implausible lies or not.  She has a few things for them and a "pro middle class" story that should work.  

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13 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

A thing I like about Warren is she can educate without coming off too preachy or condescending.  Unlike other candidates, she doesn’t insult my intelligence.  

Agreed.  You don't win teaching awards everywhere you go, even at law schools, and even at fancy ones, by being a pedantic wonk.

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