Jump to content

Astros 2020-21 offseason- can't be any worse than last year, right? RIGHT?


Recommended Posts

Altuve, Bregman, Brantley, Correa, Alvarez and Tucker should be the first 6 batters up every day. I don't really care what order, as long as those are the top 6 (and Bregman should be among the top 3). If Yuli catches fire, then sure. 

Straw should hit no higher than 9th in the order. 

Radical idea: your best hitters should get the most opportunities to hit. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Someone whose lifetime OBP isn't .327.

 

He only has 200 MLB ABs. His MILB OPB is .394 with a .773 OBS, which is very respectable. I don’t mind giving him a chance and if he busts then move him down. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not gonna wring my hands over the leadoff hitter in a preseason game.  Dusty's probably trying to give Straw more ABs because he needs them.

Let's not forget that in 2019 Straw hit .269 with an OBP of .378.

If he can just give us .250 and .350 with 20+ steals out of the 9 hole, that's a nice contribution.

And I know that's a lot of ifs...

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

I'm not gonna wring my hands over the leadoff hitter in a preseason game.  Dusty's probably trying to give Straw more ABs because he needs them.

Let's not forget that in 2019 Straw hit .269 with an OBP of .378.

If he can just give us .250 and .350 with 20+ steals out of the 9 hole, that's a nice contribution.

And I know that's a lot of ifs...

If he’s got a 350 OBP he needs to have 50 steals, not 20

Link to post
Share on other sites

From The Book:

Your 3 best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2 and #4 slots. Your fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and #2 slots will have players with more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality. 

Bregman / Brantley / Altuve / Alvarez / Correa / Tucker / Yuli / Maldanado / Straw - sounds about right to me. 

Average plate appearances per game, by batting order slot (162-g PAs in ()):

1: 4.83 (782)

2: 4.70 (761)

3: 4.59 (744)

4: 4.48 (726)

5: 4.37 (708)

6: 4.26 (690)

7: 4.16 (674)

8: 4.05 (656)

9: 3.93 (637)

So, over 162 games, the first spot in the order should come to bat around 145 more times than the ninth spot.

No universe exists in which a batting order should be intentionally designed to get Myles Straw 145 more PAs than Alex Bregman over the course of a season. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

I'm not gonna wring my hands over the leadoff hitter in a preseason game.  Dusty's probably trying to give Straw more ABs because he needs them.

Let's not forget that in 2019 Straw hit .269 with an OBP of .378.

If he can just give us .250 and .350 with 20+ steals out of the 9 hole, that's a nice contribution.

And I know that's a lot of ifs...

He'd still be a negative value to the club unless his defense gets remarkedly better.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I'm not going to blame Dusty for the Straw experiment.  I'm going to blame the GM and Owner who think he is an MLB starting center fielder because he can run fast and doesn't cost anything.

Edited by kevwun
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

So, over 162 games, the first spot in the order should come to bat around 145 more times than the ninth spot.

No universe exists in which a batting order should be intentionally designed to get Myles Straw 145 more PAs than Alex Bregman over the course of a season.

Lulz. So you have Bregman batting 9th?  

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Lulz. So you have Bregman batting 9th?  

Ha, yeah that doesn't make sense. I think I was trying to make one point and then changed it and ended up with that drivel. I blame the wine. 

My only point is that Straw shouldn't be coming to bat more than Bregman or Altuve or Brantley, etc. I don't want him getting 21 more PAs or 38 more PA than Bregman, or whatever. 

Edited by Hank Chinaski
Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Ha, yeah that doesn't make sense. I think I was trying to make one point and then changed it and ended up with that drivel. I blame the wine. 

My only point is that Straw shouldn't be coming to bat more than Bregman or Altuve or Brantley, etc. I don't want him getting 21 more PAs or 38 more PA than Bregman, or whatever. 

Or, 200 something plate appearances more than hitting 9th Miles Straw which is, of course, the main point.  Leading him off is stupid/old school. I feel like that's where Dusty Baker lives.  We shall see. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

It's like setting a plate of cookies down in front of a child, leaving the room and then yelling at them for eating them when you come back later.  Of course Dusty Baker is going to bat Myles Straw lead off.  It's as predictable as the sun rising.  I choose to blame those who are giving him the opportunity and letting him do it.  Either we still believe in analytics or we don't.  Half-assing it does not work.

Edited by kevwun
  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, kevwun said:

It's like setting a plate of cookies down in front of a child, leaving the room and then yelling at them for eating them when you come back later.  Of course Dusty Baker is going to bat Myles Straw lead off.  It's as predictable as the sun rising.  I choose to blame those who are giving him the opportunity and letting him do it.  Either we still believe in analytics or we don't.  Half-assing it does not work.

Yessir.  This is my question about this new FO.  So far I'm not really impressed with them. They didn't give Brantley a QO, which I thought was odd- and then signed him to a bigger deal than that risking losing him, they didn't seem to be interested in extending Springer, Correa and LMJ are out there begging for any engagement in contract extensions and it looks like nothing is even attempting to get done, we've yet to sign any kind of FA of any quality in 2 off seasons that wasn't with the stros, and we extended Dusty Baker 1 week in for no apparent reason, and now we are apparently letting him do stupid Dusty Baker things.

There's a lot of yeah but's in response to what I'm saying, and this might not be the most fair way to frame what's happened in the last 13 months since the new regime started, and I don't hate the job they are doing or anything, but I'm also just not sure that they are doing anything other than rolling the ball out.  We shall see. If they get a deal done with Correa (10 for 250 or 300) and/or LMJ (3 for 45 or 55) then I will feel better about it- but the track record with Tampa seems to be that they don't ever want to sign anyone that isn't under club control. I get why you don't want to pay for years 7-13 but with the guys we are talking about here those are prime years of their career and we should be in World Series contention.  

I'm sitting and waiting it out. Not mad yet, but skeptical. 

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Correa is key for this team remaining competitive well into the decade.. Hopefully, he's not asking for a king's ransom.. If he is, the Astros shouldn't overpay and shouldn't shoulder the blame for him walking.. Don't forget this is a 2 way street. 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, texashorne said:

Correa is key for this team remaining competitive well into the decade.. Hopefully, he's not asking for a king's ransom.. If he is, the Astros shouldn't overpay and shouldn't shoulder the blame for him walking.. Don't forget this is a 2 way street. 

 

 

Of course he's asking for more than you want to pay, but it's less than he will be asking for at the end of the year if he has a big season. If he gets to FA he's gone gone gone gone.  There is a reason that CF and SS are the apex athletes on your baseball team- when you have a guy that plays good D there and has a HOF type bat that means you are in contention for big stuff if your front office isn't managed and staffed by idiots. It's literally one of the 2 hardest/most important positions to fill.  Just fucking do it- no excuses.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, runthebone said:

So we are ready to fire Dusty for batting Straw leadoff in game 1 of spring training...

I don't think anyone is ready to fire him, just saying- lets go ahead and take away his decision to make suboptimal decisions like that.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Of course he's asking for more than you want to pay, but it's less than he will be asking for at the end of the year if he has a big season.

Maybe. The free agent shortstop lineup next year is insane. If one team steps up and sets the market high, then yes. But if it turns into a buyer’s market, then no. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yessir.  This is my question about this new FO.  So far I'm not really impressed with them. They didn't give Brantley a QO, which I thought was odd- and then signed him to a bigger deal than that risking losing him, they didn't seem to be interested in extending Springer, Correa and LMJ are out there begging for any engagement in contract extensions and it looks like nothing is even attempting to get done, we've yet to sign any kind of FA of any quality in 2 off seasons that wasn't with the stros, and we extended Dusty Baker 1 week in for no apparent reason, and now we are apparently letting him do stupid Dusty Baker things.

There's a lot of yeah but's in response to what I'm saying, and this might not be the most fair way to frame what's happened in the last 13 months since the new regime started, and I don't hate the job they are doing or anything, but I'm also just not sure that they are doing anything other than rolling the ball out.  We shall see. If they get a deal done with Correa (10 for 250 or 300) and/or LMJ (3 for 45 or 55) then I will feel better about it- but the track record with Tampa seems to be that they don't ever want to sign anyone that isn't under club control. I get why you don't want to pay for years 7-13 but with the guys we are talking about here those are prime years of their career and we should be in World Series contention.  

I'm sitting and waiting it out. Not mad yet, but skeptical. 

 

I'm skeptical too. I'm afraid that Click won't be able to drop the lean low budget mindset he had in Tampa.  It isnt something unique to baseball. Once a manager gets accustomed to operating in a place that values or necessitates cost control over maximizing output, it is difficult for that manager to break out of that mold when at a place with a higher budget.  The best team is rarely the cheapest team or the most efficiently built team.  So Click is going to need to learn how to offer big contracts sometimes even if it hurts his soul.  Billy Beane knew better than to take that Red Sox offer. 

If Correa walks, the wind is going to come completely out of the sails of this team, and that will be reflected in the seats and TV eyeballs. So there may even be a financial argument for signing him. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I'm not sure what the future payroll of the Astros is going to be.  I worry that Crane has been spooked away from spending what is necessary to compete.  He has taken a bite from the every shit sandwich MLB has stuck in front of him without so much as a whimper.

Edited by kevwun
Link to post
Share on other sites

Crane has consistently showed a willingness to spend what it takes if it helps compete for a championship. But he’s also a realist and isn’t going to spend if they aren’t close. This year, the Astros have the 5th highest payroll. But they aren’t going to go over the salary cap. Not because of the money but to protect the draft choices they could be getting from by giving qualifying offers to JV, Greinke and Correa. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

I'm skeptical too. I'm afraid that Click won't be able to drop the lean low budget mindset he had in Tampa.  It isnt something unique to baseball. Once a manager gets accustomed to operating in a place that values or necessitates cost control over maximizing output, it is difficult for that manager to break out of that mold when at a place with a higher budget.  The best team is rarely the cheapest team or the most efficiently built team.  

This is a really smart point. 
sometimes you have to pay Jd Drew 18 million a year to suck and he hits a grand slam to win you the World Series. 
yanks never won any dollars per win titles but won lots of rings. 
you can’t use money to substitute for intelligence but you can’t always go for best value, sometimes and some places you need best talent. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

And every one of those deals and trades save for resigning Uncle Mike were done before the scandal.  They have lost 3 huge pieces the last two years and done nothing to offset them.  You can't lose a Cole, JV or Springer every off season and keep winning for very long.

Edited by kevwun
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there any validation to the sentiment that the shortstops available in FA next season may not be willing to sign with the Astros because of the bullshit?

If Seager/ Lindor ect are going to charge us a premium that may make a case for paying a little extra to the guy that wants to stay here. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, kevwun said:

And every one of those deals and trades save for resigning Uncle Mike were done before the scandal.  They have lost 3 huge pieces the last two years and done nothing to offset them.  You can't lose a Cole, JV or Springer every off season and keep winning for very long.

I think they might have had post 2021 with JV and Greinke and Correa and LMJ al being up as a pencil on time to rebuild. Hopefully the young and cheap arms in the rotation make them rethink that as they have a very real competitive window through 2025 or so, but they will need to spend to make that happen. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, runthebone said:

Crane is the best owner in Houston history, as far as I can tell, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt.

Sure. But that’s literally the textbook definition of damning with faint praise. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, texashorne said:

Correa is key for this team remaining competitive well into the decade.. Hopefully, he's not asking for a king's ransom.. If he is, the Astros shouldn't overpay and shouldn't shoulder the blame for him walking.. Don't forget this is a 2 way street.

Every player in every sport should try to get as much as they possibly can. 

That does not mean the Astros should pay it.

Correa should ask for the moon.

Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Sure. But that’s literally the textbook definition of damning with faint praise. 

Yep.  Houston sports history is littered with crap owners.  Honestly, Bud Adams is probably the second best, if you take away one thing that he did that made him drop all the way from second best to dead last.  

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Yep.  Houston sports history is littered with crap owners.  Honestly, Bud Adams is probably the second best, if you take away one thing that he did that made him drop all the way from second best to dead last.  

Crane, Les Alexander and Roy Hofheinz are the best owners Houston has had. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Crane, Les Alexander and Roy Hofheinz are the best owners Houston has had. 

And if we are being honest Les kinda sucked. He had nothing to do with building the 2 title teams, and he refused to spend into the luxury tax, basically ever, when a couple times it might have made the difference between us having a legit shot and not.  He's not a bad owner, but he's a solid B. The fact that he is undoubtedly the second best owner in the towns history is just sad and painful. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

And if we are being honest Les kinda sucked. He had nothing to do with building the 2 title teams, and he refused to spend into the luxury tax, basically ever, when a couple times it might have made the difference between us having a legit shot and not.  He's not a bad owner, but he's a solid B. The fact that he is undoubtedly the second best owner in the towns history is just sad and painful. 

Don't sleep on AEG. 2 years of Dynamo ownerhsip. 2 titles. Been downhill since de la Hoya.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, runthebone said:

So we are ready to fire Dusty for batting Straw leadoff in game 1 of spring training...

What if we never wanted to hire him?  OK then?

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

I'm skeptical too. I'm afraid that Click won't be able to drop the lean low budget mindset he had in Tampa.  

Hey, before we crap all over his methods, maybe we should remember which American League team was in the World Series last year.

Just saying we might want to give him a chance before we bury him. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...