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Another one? Texas delegation seeing big changes between 18 and 20

 

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The republican gerrymandering this time around will be really interesting. They will match large rural areas with light blue suburban areas to maximize their number of seats. The problem is that those rural areas have a stagnant or declining population while the burbs are not only growing more blue, they are exploding in population. Their plan will work for the short term, which is likely all they care about. But, it’s goibg to be ugly when the blue burbs take over the rest of those districts and the pubs go down in flames.

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29 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Holy Shit. Conaway?  He's one of the Republicans whose integrity, to my mind, was never in doubt. 

When extremely safe incumbents bail, it’s because they don’t like the way the wind blows (Democrats keep or even expand their majority). No fear of losing, just don’t want to be in the minority. Or for some, don’t want the hassle of being the scapegoat in a 2022 redraw of their district or having to actually fight to keep it. 

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20 minutes ago, Js1 said:

When extremely safe incumbents bail, it’s because they don’t like the way the wind blows (Democrats keep or even expand their majority). No fear of losing, just don’t want to be in the minority. Or for some, don’t want the hassle of being the scapegoat in a 2022 redraw of their district or having to actually fight to keep it. 

It’s really not that crazy when you think about it.

 

if you’re a House Republican right now, chances are you’re still used to being in the majority. The tea party election of 2010 has let them dominate the 2010-2020 decade in the house. Nowadays, they’re in the minority and a lot of them probably don’t know what that feels like. They have to answer questions about trump all the time, they get asked why they defend him, they get asked about his racist tweets that he fires off from the toilet at 3 am. 

The US house hasn’t flipped in a presidential election since the 1950’s and democrats have been anxiously awaiting the opportunity to vote against trump after he shockingly prevailed in 2016. Democrat turnout should be very high. I’m starting to doubt if the house will even be competitive. 

Even if house republicans shock the world, it would undoubtedly be a narrow majority. We’ve seen this movie before, the GOP can’t pass any laws relevant to the American people because the difference in ideology between a regular repub and a tea party repub is so great. The GOP can’t govern effectively because of the presence of the tea party.

to summarize...... house republicans are looking at several scenarios going forward

1) lose in 2020 and stay in the minority. If trump wins, you can likely chalk them up to being the minority until 2026 because again the house barely ever flips in a presidential year and repubs got waxed in 2018 even with the Brett kavanaugh motivation to vote. I don’t see them being very energized in the second midterm of trump’s second term unless something major happens to change that.

2) win in 2020 and “enjoy” a very small majority that is very divisive and ineffective. They will get shit on by both trump and the American people for being ineffective and spineless.

 

Edited by Voldemort86

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On 7/30/2019 at 11:43 AM, Ghost of LL said:

I would agree with that.  Right now, I'd give them 1 chance in 4 (maybe 1 chance in 5).  But the reality is that their gerrymander is broken.  It's build on the assumption that that suburban, highly educated whites are going to be Republicans.  That's no longer true.

Exhibit A?

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/07/31/state-rep-john-zerwas-stepping-down-early/

Northwest FB County - one of the fastest growing parts of Texas.  HD28 is not majority white either - 46.6% white, 36.4% black/Hispanic and 17% other. 

Won 54.2-45.8 in 2018.  He was unopposed in 12-14-16. 

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19 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

The republican gerrymandering this time around will be really interesting. They will match large rural areas with light blue suburban areas to maximize their number of seats. The problem is that those rural areas have a stagnant or declining population while the burbs are not only growing more blue, they are exploding in population. Their plan will work for the short term, which is likely all they care about. But, it’s goibg to be ugly when the blue burbs take over the rest of those districts and the pubs go down in flames.

It will be more interesting to see how much gerrymandering gets unwound. In my list of the 71 closest Republican held districts a few states account for a high percentage of them; Texas, North Carolina, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, and California. 

Texas could shift 5 or 6 seats this time making the representation roughly equal as it should be. If the Texas house flips the nap may end up fair.  North  Carolina and Michigan should get fixed along with some other states where fewer seats are affected. A number of seats currently in Democrat hands will be made safer for Democrats.

Ohio and Florida probably stay that way unless new Federal laws are passed or successful court challenges. California could pack Republicans into even fewer districts if they decide to fight back, but I doubt they will. 

I expect a 20 seat shift in 2022 due to fixed gerrymandering which will make it difficult for Republicans to gain many seats even if it is a midterm where they should.

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2018:

Poe - retired

Sam Johnson - retired 

Hensarling - retired 

Barton - retired 

Culberson - defeated 

Beto - ran for Senate 

Lamar Smith - retired 

Farenthold - resigned 

Gene Green - retired 

Sessions - defeated 

2020: 

Conaway - retiring

Olsen - retiring

Hurd - retiring 

36% of our House delegation will see turnover between 2019 and 2021. Not counting any potential defeats or further retirements. 

Thats a huge swing in a “solid” red state. 

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15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

2020: 

Conaway - retiring

Olsen - retiring

Hurd - retiring 

Js, your posting history is replete with uncanny insight regarding obscure House elections across the country. In other words, you seem to know a lot about this shit, and I respect your opinion and want to know more.

In your view, who do you see as potential Republican candidates to replace these three?

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4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Shitty MAGAtards probably 

So do they have enough time to reach the point where they say something really offensive about Africa-Americans and Hispanics?  Because it would be awesome if they helped drive up minority turnout for the Ds.

Not that Texas would flip next year, but it would be hilarious if Republicans put enough seats into play and then ran shitty enough candidates to tighten things up.

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GOJ should be able to win that seat without Hurd around. From what I have seen of Hurd it has always been weird to me that he has been more or less okay with falling in line with the Trumpkins for the past three years. He is smarter than them. I hope he finds a way to make up for that in retirement.

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

 

I will fucking celebrate in the streets if McCaul retires. Probably still a red seat, but I can't stand that rich fuck.

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VERY good news for democrats.

will Hurd was actually a good congressman and a smart guy. He seems like one of the very few republicans on the planet capable of winning that district consistently. I’d bet it was a district drawn with democrat victories in mind, but Hurd has been able to do a Jedi mind trick on the people in that district and get lots of them to split their tickets over, and over, and over again. It’s a vast district. Very huge and he traveled it constantly to visit with his constituents.

i’ve always been amazed that the seat isn’t blue, but every seat adds up in the grand scheme of things and I highly doubt the repubs can come up with a candidate who can do better in this district then will Hurd.

 

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5 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

VERY good news for democrats.

will Hurd was actually a good congressman and a smart guy. He seems like one of the very few republicans on the planet capable of winning that district consistently. I’d bet it was a district drawn with democrat victories in mind, but Hurd has been able to do a Jedi mind trick on the people in that district and get lots of them to split their tickets over, and over, and over again. It’s a vast district. Very huge and he traveled it constantly to visit with his constituents.

i’ve always been amazed that the seat isn’t blue, but every seat adds up in the grand scheme of things and I highly doubt the repubs can come up with a candidate who can do better in this district then will Hurd.

 

No, it wasn't. Look at the pincer claws that wrap around San Antonio in the suburbs to counter the vast, empty desert portions of the district and border towns. It's yet another example of Republican overreach in Texas, thinking that fast-growing suburbs would continue to be hoodwinked in perpetuity.

lossless-page1-1280px-Texas_US_Congressional_District_23_%28since_2013%29.tif.png

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Will Hurd is a great American and patriot who was one of the only Republicans willing to stand up with Trump and vote in line with Trump positions 81% of the time. But at least he is leaving to go into private security and spend his time trying to murder brown people more efficiently. He will he missed. 

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1 hour ago, bolverk said:

No, it wasn't. Look at the pincer claws that wrap around San Antonio in the suburbs to counter the vast, empty desert portions of the district and border towns. It's yet another example of Republican overreach in Texas, thinking that fast-growing suburbs would continue to be hoodwinked in perpetuity.

lossless-page1-1280px-Texas_US_Congressional_District_23_%28since_2013%29.tif.png

You’re right,

 

I guess when you look at it on the map, it seems like a district that should be blue every single time. 

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The downside of the 2018 elections and what appears to be happening in 2020 is that any remaining moderate GOP members are almost gone.  While someone like Nunes would have one been considered more extreme in the GOP, now he’s more center.

bad for America when our reps are only at the extremes.

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That midland district will gladly vote in someone to the right of trump.

hurd’s district will go back D. He won the last election by the skin of his teeth 

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50 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The downside of the 2018 elections and what appears to be happening in 2020 is that any remaining moderate GOP members are almost gone.  While someone like Nunes would have one been considered more extreme in the GOP, now he’s more center.

bad for America when our reps are only at the extremes.

That's ok, there are lots of Democrats who are right of center.

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27 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

That midland district will gladly vote in someone to the right of trump.

hurd’s district will go back D. He won the last election by the skin of his teeth 

Olsen's May flip 

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2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The downside of the 2018 elections and what appears to be happening in 2020 is that any remaining moderate GOP members are almost gone.  While someone like Nunes would have one been considered more extreme in the GOP, now he’s more center.

bad for America when our reps are only at the extremes.

It’s a good thing if you’re a democrat.  Independents usually don’t vote for the crazy right wing nut jobs who are racist or women haters.

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2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

That midland district will gladly vote in someone to the right of trump.

hurd’s district will go back D. He won the last election by the skin of his teeth 

Imagine:

Democrats flipped TX-7 and TX-32 last cycle
Democrats can flip TX-2 (Crenshaw only got 52.8% in 2018), TX-10 (McCaul only got 51.1% in 2018),  TX-21 (Chip Roy only got 50.2% in 2018), TX-22, TX-23, TX-24 (Marchant only got 50.6% in 2018), TX-31 (Carter only got 50.6% in 2018)

We'd go from 25R-11D before the 2018 cycle to 23-13 in 2019 to something more like 18R-18D instead. 

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13 hours ago, Js1 said:

2018:

Poe - retired

Sam Johnson - retired 

Hensarling - retired 

Barton - retired 

Culberson - defeated 

Beto - ran for Senate 

Lamar Smith - retired 

Farenthold - resigned 

Gene Green - retired 

Sessions - defeated 

2020: 

Conaway - retiring

Olsen - retiring

Hurd - retiring 

36% of our House delegation will see turnover between 2019 and 2021. Not counting any potential defeats or further retirements. 

Thats a huge swing in a “solid” red state. 

Missed one.  If Ratcliffe is confirmed for DNI, this would be a special election for his seat.  Meaning 39% of the House delegation would see turnover in ~2 years. 

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On 7/30/2019 at 10:28 PM, Js1 said:

When extremely safe incumbents bail, it’s because they don’t like the way the wind blows (Democrats keep or even expand their majority). No fear of losing....

Well, yeah, sure, if the qualifier is "extremely safe" then by definition there isn't a fear of losing.

But who gets to decide what is "extremely safe" with the Dotard looming over the political landscape?

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2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Another one bites the dust 

 

BOOM

 

Crusty old fart John Carter is next I hope. Would love to see that loser Kevin Brady call it quits, but he’s probably in the safest Red district in America. Ugh.

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Embracing Trump has alienated both minorities and college-educated whites and three of the four districts that Texas Republican congressmen are retiring from are filled with both.  As the population of Texas gets bigger and more hispanics and out-of-staters from places like California start voting, it's going to be damn hard for Texas GOP members who support Trump to win general elections. 

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Another blow for the house GOP

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/456127-ex-gop-lawmaker-from-maine-says-he-wont-run-for-his-old-seat-in-2020

Bruce poliquin was another Will Hurd type of republican. He won a district up in Maine repeatedly that is competitive. The democrat probably faces an easier path to re-election now that he won’t be facing an opponent who has a positive history with the district. Poliquin lost very narrowly last year.

similar to Will Hurd, I’d say it’s unlikely that the house GOP find someone better than poliquin.

 

this thread could be very fun to watch over the next month or so. House GOP..... please keep the retirements coming!

Edited by Voldemort86

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