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Is the big 12 going to be solid top to bottom in 2019?


markstanco

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Phil steel seems to think so. TX/OU at the top, with Iowa state and tcu following closely behind

 

Phil seems to think tcu at 7 in vegas is a lock on the over. Also thinks Baylor is a lock at 8 wins. Baylor at 8 wins. Wow.

 

Tech gets confused at 5 wins. Kansas teams win 6 combined. Okie light wins 6, maybe 7?

 

Discuss.

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Don't sleep on WVU. They probably made the best hire of all the teams nationwide who changed coaches this offseason.

Lack of DB depth will keep them out of the top tier, but they ought to pull off multiple upsets this fall.

TCU will probably beat expectations, too.

And I am predicting a Texas - Iowa State Big 12 CCG.

Because fuck OU.

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6 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:
  1. Texas
  2. OU
  3. Iowa St.
  4. Baylor
  5. TCU
  6. Okie Lite
  7. K-State
  8. WVU
  9. Tech
  10. Kansas

The Baylor hype doesn't seem to be based on anything substantive. TCU will be good if they can find a real QB, and if they can't you can still expect them to feast on most of the conference. Flip okie light with baylor and I think that's reasonable to project. Chubba Hubbard is going to break out this year.

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The top 6 should be solid, but predicting the teams with new coaches to be status quo is certainly a bit optimistic. I'm certainly going to be pissed if we lose to the mountain ears again when they have a new coach and I'm going to be pissed if we lose to okie lite again too.

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No. Bottom is going to be really bad. Tech, WVU and KSU are looking at rough transition years. Kansas still sucks.

 

The top half will be competitive. At the end of the day OU and Texas will be 1-2 but neither is an elite, top five/CFP type of team. TCU, ISU, and OSU are all going to be good. They will each get confidence/reputation boosts from going 3-0 out of conference. I expect the B12 to maintain four or five ranked teams throughout the year and for the conference race to stay interesting.

 

I could see eight wins for Baylor because their non conference is soft. Go 3-0 and beat the four bad teams above and they only need to knock off one team with a pulse. I agree that they aren't going to be that good of a team though.

 

TCU is a pretty clear #3 in terms of talent and has a great coach. I know they've got QB issues but the over on seven sounds right to me. Got to six last year despite everything. I think they bounce back and win nine.

 

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Kansas will be terrible.

WVU/Tech/KSU are all really hard to read.  Any one of those teams could win 7 games, and any one of those teams could win 3.  They could all go 6-6ish.

Everyone else is a tough out, and OU and Texas are legit playoff contenders.

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Baylor has decent skill position players and one or two superior defenders. They have lots of growth potential, which is code for saying they have holes.

They practiced and conditioned this summer like everyone else. There were a lot of "if the OL improves" and "if the secondary gets better", coupled with "when we find a pass rush" after last season. Yes, the players could get better. However, Charlie Brewer was running for his life, keeping the team moving through sheer force of will and taking too many body breaking hits while doing it. It's tough for me to verbalize a credible reason why the OL or other protection will be different this season. If you give the Baylor offense a moment to operate, they're lethal. My advice is not to do that. It isn't hard to disrupt it.

They have to get into the 30 point range to have a shot at winning. Against quality teams, that's a tall order. As someone who's watched Baylor plenty over the last 20 years, I can't immediately tell you who gets the ball if Charlie Brewer isn't in the game.

Executive Summary: Baylor is a good but not great team. Too many stars have to align to hope for a special season, but it's possible.

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1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

At the end of the day OU and Texas will be 1-2 but neither is an elite, top five/CFP type of team.

I disagree. Who are you taking above Texas/OU besides Bama, Clemson and tOSU? I don't see any reason why the best team in the B12 won't be at least the 5th best team in the country. Almost every preseason poll is slotting one of us in the top 5 and giving us a playoff spot.

I don't think Texas or OU are necessarily title contenders, but there is just as much unknown for every team besides the 3 that I listed. 

 

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I think the conference was better last year than what it will be this year, primarily because the QB talent was better last year (league lost 2 NFL draft picks and OU/WVa have downgrades at the position-OSU may be the only place where you can see an upgrade) and there are several rebuild jobs underway this year. Texas and OU will clearly be the top 2 teams barring significant injuries. However, I don't see nearly the depth. WVa was a Top 15 caliber team last year (despite their wretched bowl showing) and ISU was a bordeline Top 25 team. I don't see that depth in the remaining teams that could get there.

ISU - Probably my pick to be 3rd because of their defense, but no David Montgomery and no Hakeem Butler. How does Brock Purdy respond without those weapons and an offseason for opponents to gameplan. Won't surprise, but could disappoint. 

TCU - Do they even have a QB. What we saw of Michael Collins was not that impressive and Justin Rogers hasn't played a meaningful football game in 2 years due to injury. Not sold on the QB development capabilities of the TCU staff either after Shawn Robinson crashed and burned. Defense will continue to be their calling card, Jalen Reagor is someone we all wanted to be in burnt orange and the backfield is solid (though Sewo Olonilua's status for the season remains unclear due to a felony drug possession). But without a dynamic QB, the offense will be easier to defend and we could see a lot of Cheez-It Bowl type games for the Frogs this year. Don't think the over on 7 wins will be as much of a lock as PS indicates. 

OSU - This is the team that could break through. OSU comes in without a proven starter as well, but I trust Gundy's staff's development capabilities on QB far more than TCU's. OSU returns Chuba Hubbard and Tylan Wallace which makes them the most likely candidate to have a lethal offense apart from the Top 2. Defense....well, that probably remains a question. The game in September in Austin will be pretty big and could launch OSU into the discussion in the conference if they win. I like OSU better than TCU quite frankly in terms of teams that can challenge the Top 2. 

Baylor - Meh. Did you know Charlie Brewer is the son and grandson of Longhorn legends? I'm sure that will be mentioned multiple times on any future UT/BU football broadcasts, but beyond Brewer, not really sure what Baylor brings to the table and the predictions by some (FCB) of Baylor getting to the championship game are pretty far fetched. Who replaces both Jalen Hurd and Denzel Mims at the wide receiver position. Ebner and Hasty are solid at the RB position, but don't like the line and the defense is at best average. Baylor gets to 7 wins off of their easy non-conference schedule, but I don't see much beyond that and they'll have to sweat out Matt Rhule entertaining coaching gigs elsewhere in the offseason.  

Tech, WVa, Kansas Teams - All with new coaches and all with rebuild jobs. Not worth discussing in terms of conference strength....in fact the bottom of the conference could be as bad as it has been in some time depending on the rebuilds. 

Should be fun

 

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1 minute ago, PencilPusher said:

Yep - Jack Allison started. Think some other guys skipped as well. Sills didn't, but I do remember there was a handful of NFL draft hopefuls that skipped. 

iirc one of their starting OLineman did.

Anyway, I agree with almost all of your post. I don't think Baylor should scare anyone - Chip Brown is a fucking moron (that was already a given) and picked them to beat OU. Maybe they trip over someone else's dick into an upset but taking them to win more than 7 games is a total shot in the dark. 

ISU will probably muscle their way past the lukewarm vomit at the bottom of the conference, which should give them the highest floor of anyone vying for 3rd. Agree that OSU is the darkhorse. 

Tech is unfortunately always Tech - but that's really only relevant when they are playing us. At home we should stomp them. 

WVU is going to be awful. I don't think they have the personnel to hang with anyone worth a shit on either side of the ball. 

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Yep - Jack Allison started. Think some other guys skipped as well. Sills didn't, but I do remember there was a handful of NFL draft hopefuls that skipped. 

Their LT, Cajuste, who went in the third round and was considered a potential first rounder at the time, sat as well. They were missing their two best offensive players in two of the most important positions.

Their bowl performance in no way reflects how good they were last year. It does, I think, foreshadow struggles this year though.

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I disagree. Who are you taking above Texas/OU besides Bama, Clemson and tOSU? I don't see any reason why the best team in the B12 won't be at least the 5th best team in the country. Almost every preseason poll is slotting one of us in the top 5 and giving us a playoff spot.
I don't think Texas or OU are necessarily title contenders, but there is just as much unknown for every team besides the 3 that I listed. 
 

I think you're going to see Washington or Oregon make a run out of the Pac 12 North. Notre Dame can still be very good. Michigan has all the tools in place should they get over the Ohio State hump. Georgia is loaded.

I'm not so much saying that Texas and OU don't belong in the next tier down from Clemson and Bama - I think they do - as I'm saying that I don't think either team is getting through the regular season with no losses or one loss. Neither has a particularly easy schedule and they're probably playing twice.

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2 hours ago, Ricky's one-hitter said:

The Baylor hype doesn't seem to be based on anything substantive. TCU will be good if they can find a real QB, and if they can't you can still expect them to feast on most of the conference. Flip okie light with baylor and I think that's reasonable to project. Chubba Hubbard is going to break out this year.

But, but, but they have a badass QB with a chip on his shoulder?  Didn't you hear UT didn't offer?

1 hour ago, texifornia said:

My guesses - I'm not very high on the conference this year below OSU/TCU:

Playoff contenders: Texas, OU

Conference dark horses: Iowa State, Baylor (barf)

Solid tough outs: TCU, Okie Lite

Butt tier: KSU, WVU, Tech

Extra butt: Kansas

Jayhawk got back?

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2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

No. Bottom is going to be really bad. Tech, WVU and KSU are looking at rough transition years. Kansas still sucks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agreed.  I'm not sure anyone could make the argument that the Big 12 will be strong top to bottom.  The top (UT) will be stronger and the middle (ISU, oSu, BU, TCU)  might be stronger.  But I don't see how the bottom doesn't struggle mightily simply because of the coaching transitions.  I think Klieman's transition will be very smooth at KSU but won't translate to wins yet.  The Hat could win a national championship at KU, who the fuck knows...but they won't do shit this year.

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3 hours ago, Ricky's one-hitter said:

The Baylor hype doesn't seem to be based on anything substantive. 

3rd year in the new system, didn't lose that much at all besides Hurd, depth is greatly improved from two years ago, semi-vet QB, easy non-con and coaching turnover at several schools= I'd be dissapointed with less than 8 wins. But it's August, hope is high and kook-aid is flowing.

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11 hours ago, markstanco said:

 

Phil steel seems to think so. TX/OU at the top, with Iowa state and tcu following closely behind

 

Phil seems to think tcu at 7 in vegas is a lock on the over. Also thinks Baylor is a lock at 8 wins. Baylor at 8 wins. Wow.

 

Tech gets confused at 5 wins. Kansas teams win 6 combined. Okie light wins 6, maybe 7?

 

Discuss.

 

Vegas has us at 6.5 wins. If I were gambool, I'd bet my house on the over. QB is a question mark but all indications from practice are that both possible starters are pretty good, or at least good enough for our system. I think it is very unlikely that both would flop. The rest of the offense is set. Wallace at receiver with experience at other WR spots, Chubba is a beast, and our oline is finally recovered depthwise from Wickline's devestating wake, and Dickey has decades of oline success under his belt. Our DB's all mostly returned and will be a strength. Our LBs are younger but talented. DL will be a learning curve with not much experience but we have a few transfers that will help and young talent that should develop quickly. 

I don't see any reason to expect much from KU or K-State. Tech can sometimes be unpredictably good. WVU seems to have lost a ton of players and if nothing else will be rebuilding this year. Baylor is still a question mark but will have good QB play which is often good enough to be competitive in this league.I think after OU and Texas, ISU will be good, then a crapshoot where I like OSU's chances of being the top of that group and maybe more if things come together quickly.

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I think TCU is going to surprise some people.  Patterson has never had two down seasons in a row.  Every season he's had where he's been .500 or worse, he has followed up with a 10 win or more season.  Every damn time.  The defense will be outstanding, the O-line will be better than last season and we will find a QB good enough for the Frogs to finish in the top 3 in the conference. 

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6 minutes ago, angelos's frog said:

I think TCU is going to surprise some people.  Patterson has never had two down seasons in a row.  Every season he's had where he's been .500 or worse, he has followed up with a 10 win or more season.  Every damn time.  The defense will be outstanding, the O-line will be better than last season and we will find a QB good enough for the Frogs to finish in the top 3 in the conference. 

Ya the frogs are a complete unknown. I could see y'all winning anything from 5 to 10. The QB question is the hangup I think. Bummer about the kicker too.

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3 hours ago, Ricky's one-hitter said:

The Baylor hype doesn't seem to be based on anything substantive. TCU will be good if they can find a real QB, and if they can't you can still expect them to feast on most of the conference. Flip okie light with baylor and I think that's reasonable to project. Chubba Hubbard is going to break out this year.

Not having a proven QB will hurt TCU unless their defense is unbelievable. Brewer is solid. 

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Holgo gave some teams fits in this conference, but I really think people are underestimating just exactly how piss-poor he was at managing a program.  WVU is in much better shape than most folk think, simply because you look at a new coach and a new QB and think, "well, those are the two most important positions." I look at them, though, and I think "addition by subtraction." They may not be better than they were before, but I also don't think they'll be much worse than they were before, either.

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2 hours ago, texifornia said:

My guesses - I'm not very high on the conference this year below OSU/TCU:

Playoff contenders: Texas, OU

Conference dark horses: Iowa State, Baylor (barf)

Solid tough outs: TCU, Okie Lite

Butt tier: KSU, WVU, Tech

Extra butt: Kansas

I don’t think Baylor is aconference dark horse at all. Way too many holes on the offense and defense for Brewer to cover up. Also, I’m still not convinced Rhule is that good of a coach. He’s good at identifying freak athletes and playing the lottery that some will develop into studs, but that comes with a low hit rate, which results in holes on the roster. He’s actively messed up their offense the last two years and didnt go with Brewer early last year even though he was clearly better. 

If I’m picking right now,  Iowa State seems the safest pick for third, but I think some other teams have a higher ceiling. replacing Montgomery and Butler’s talent won’t be possible. Purdy’s improvement may get their offense back to where it was last year but probably not a whole lot better. Losing Montgomery will really hurt them. 

I’d say TCU and Ok St. are the dark horses. TCU’s defense returns a ton and gets a healthy Blacklock. That unit will be really good and their OL should be a plus. QB is obviously a question, but they have multiple veteran options in Collins and Delton with two high upside options in Duggan and Rogers, though from what I hear, Rogers is still having a lot of medical issues and likely won’t play this year and may be done for his career, potentially.

Whether it’s Collins or Delton to start, having a QB that isn’t actively throwing away games, like Robinson last year, will be a big improvement for them. They can lean on the run and Cumbie’s really good at manufacturing yards through the short passing game, especially with a guy like Reagor. I’d probably pick TCU third in conference. OSU has high upside IMO just because I remember Spencer Sanders in HS and think he’s got potential to be special.  

if TCU and OSU’s O/U really are 7 and 6.5, I’d bet the over hard on those.

So I’d go

1. Texas

2. OU

3. TCU

4. Iowa State

5. OSU

6. Baylor 

7. WVU

8. K State

9. Tech

10. Rock chalk

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44 minutes ago, angelos's frog said:

I think TCU is going to surprise some people.  Patterson has never had two down seasons in a row.  Every season he's had where he's been .500 or worse, he has followed up with a 10 win or more season.  Every damn time.  The defense will be outstanding, the O-line will be better than last season and we will find a QB good enough for the Frogs to finish in the top 3 in the conference. 

Patterson isn't going to surprise anyone unless he resolves that shit show at QB. That's the biggest reason TCU had a down year. It wasn't on their defense and it definitely wasn't on their OL.

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12 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

I don’t think Baylor is aconference dark horse at all. Way too many holes on the offense and defense for Brewer to cover up. Also, I’m still not convinced Rhule is that good of a coach. He’s good at identifying freak athletes and playing the lottery that some will develop into studs, but that comes with a low hit rate, which results in holes on the roster. He’s actively messed up their offense the last two years and didnt go with Brewer early last year even though he was clearly better.  

I guess I believe in Rhule. I loved watching his Temple teams ruin bigger programs' day (the Penn State upset was pure comedy), and his recruiting strategy seems to have been a smart play in terms of quickly building the program back up.

If it wasn't for the Paterno and Baylor two step I'd be an outright fan of his.

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12 hours ago, Walden Ponderer said:

Don't sleep on WVU. They probably made the best hire of all the teams nationwide who changed coaches this offseason.

Lack of DB depth will keep them out of the top tier, but they ought to pull off multiple upsets this fall.

TCU will probably beat expectations, too.

And I am predicting a Texas - Iowa State Big 12 CCG.

Because fuck OU.

I have a friend who is a big WVU fan. He seems to think they will be lucky to win 5 games.

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13 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

I have a friend who is a big WVU fan. He seems to think they will be lucky to win 5 games.

He probably didn't watch many Troy games, is my guess. They got themselves the only other coach in the Big 12 I wouldn't mind having. And I like Matt Campbell a lot, but I don't think he's as good as Neal Brown.

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1 minute ago, Walden Ponderer said:

He probably didn't watch many Troy games, is my guess. They got themselves the only other coach in the Big 12 I wouldn't mind having. And I like Matt Campbell a lot, but I don't think he's as good as Neal Brown.

Brown's good, and a marvelous culture fit, but between graduation and all the safeties leaving, I think he's got a real Year Zero situation coming up.

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7 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Brown's good, and a marvelous culture fit, but between graduation and all the safeties leaving, I think he's got a real Year Zero situation coming up.

That's certainly reasonable; I feel like the only place they are really substandard, though, compared to the conference average, is at DB. Granted, in this conference, that's a pretty bad place to be substandard...

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20 minutes ago, Walden Ponderer said:

He probably didn't watch many Troy games, is my guess. They got themselves the only other coach in the Big 12 I wouldn't mind having. And I like Matt Campbell a lot, but I don't think he's as good as Neal Brown.

They lost a ton of talent, though. That was his main reasoning. 

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Just now, Walden Ponderer said:

That's certainly reasonable; I feel like the only place they are really substandard, though, compared to the conference average, is at DB. Granted, in this conference, that's a pretty bad place to be substandard...

Their entire defense is below average, not just DB. And idk if a roster has ever lost as much talent as they did without more talent to replace it. They lost probably their 8 best players off last year’s team, including QB, LT, their 2 best WRs, their 2 best safeties, their best DL, the one good LB they had that covered up for a lot of other mistakes. In total they had 4 guys drafted and 4 or 5 more get signed as UDFAs, plus lost their best safety to transfer. 

Kendall May be good, but no one really knows for sure.  Their OL will be at least solid. They have upperclassmen across the board there, but overall their roster is really lacking in talent and is probably bottom half of the Big 12. 

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10 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Their entire defense is below average, not just DB. And idk if a roster has ever lost as much talent as they did without more talent to replace it. They lost probably their 8 best players off last year’s team, including QB, LT, their 2 best WRs, their 2 best safeties, their best DL, the one good LB they had that covered up for a lot of other mistakes. In total they had 4 guys drafted and 4 or 5 more get signed as UDFAs, plus lost their best safety to transfer. 

Kendall May be good, but no one really knows for sure.  Their OL will be at least solid. They have upperclassmen across the board there, but overall their roster is really lacking in talent and is probably bottom half of the Big 12. 

We will definitely have to wait and see on the following hypothesis, but here 'tis:  We don't really know how good most of the returning talent is, because Holgorsen was a terrible roster manager.

I suspect they aren't as bad as everyone supposes, but I don't actually have any more evidence for this idea than anyone else has against it. Historically, yes, losing a lot of starters and changing coaches is a recipe for disaster. But there's exceptions to every rule, and my prediction is that this year, WVU will be just such an exception. I bet they are bowl eligible, which under the circumstances, would be considered a major victory.

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1 hour ago, Chad said:

Patterson isn't going to surprise anyone unless he resolves that shit show at QB. That's the biggest reason TCU had a down year. It wasn't on their defense and it definitely wasn't on their OL.

We had a shit ton of injuries last season and still managed to finish 7-6.  Breaking in a new QB who thought he didn't have to study film was another problem.  But a lot of it was on the O-line too.  We graduated 4 O-linemen from the '17 team who made NFL rosters and replaced them with some freshmen and two 5th year seniors who had hardly ever played.  The O-line didn't really start playing well until the last two games of the season.  This year, we return multi-game starters at every position including a potential early round draft pick right tackle.  The line was a huge problem last season but should be a strength this season.  

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Nope.

Top Tier

Texas (underrated by many) 

OU Sux (Overrated by almost everybody) 

TCU-  ( my gut tell me they bounce back)

Mid Tier

Iowa State (Could make into top tier with a couple of upsets)

Baylor ( could go either way,  not sold on their new found momentum) 

Okie $tate ( Boone's  $$$$ will influence a game or two)

Tech.( LOLOLOLOLOLOL-  Mike Leach curse remains)

Bottom Tier

WVU-  ( Coaching change will be felt.)

K-State ( Missing the Purple Wizard) 

KU-   ( Les Miles might wish he was making commercials for Dos Equis) 

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If you want a preview of what our offensive plan looks like without Montgomery, look at last year's Okie State game.

We have Tom Manning back at OC (Campbell called his own plays last year, and it was a step down from Manning), and he's done a pretty solid job.  I don't have much concern about replacing Montgomery and Butler, because we have enough depth at those positions and improved play calling to spread the ball around and keep people on their toes.  We don't have to lean on those top talents near as much as we used to.

Our cause for concern is the O line.  They weren't great last year, and Montgomery bailed them out quite a bit.  They have more experience, and they were playing very well at the end of the year (KSU and bowl game), so there's reason for optimism, but if we can't establish a run game, and Purdy spends all fall running for his life (or worse), our odds of dropping off increase dramatically.

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On 8/7/2019 at 8:21 AM, Liquor and Poker said:

So is Rhule really a good coach?  Man, that’s hard to wrap my head around. 

I mean good enough for us. I think he'll have a couple more years of 7-6 or 8-5 ball with maybe an up year or a down year and move on to an NFL job.

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The most important Big XII game in September might be ISU @ Baylor. I'm really high on ISU, because I think they will have their OL issues, if not solved, then significantly improved. The Cyclones have TCU, OSU, and Texas at home this year, with OU / Baylor / Tech on the road. If ISU wins that game they, they have a really good chance at making the Championship game. If Baylor were to somehow pull that upset off however, then they would most likely be 7 - 1 or 8 - 0 ( depending on the OSU game ) going in to their brutal 3 week stretch of @ TCU, OU, UT.

One of those two teams is gonna have the inside track to the Championship game because of easy scheduling. With the news that Delton is is gonna be TCU's starter, it's just hard for me to think that team is getting over 8 wins.

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On 8/7/2019 at 7:35 AM, DFW Horn said:
  1. Texas
  2. OU
  3. Iowa St.
  4. Baylor
  5. TCU
  6. Okie Lite
  7. K-State
  8. WVU
  9. Tech
  10. Kansas

____________________________solid

1. TEXAS

2. Iowa St.

3. OUsucks

4. Okie Lite

5. TCU

6. WVU

____________________________ not solid

7. K State

8. Baylor

9. Tech

10. Kansas

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