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World Cup Day 11 - Group C & D Final Matchday


Captain Ron
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20 minutes ago, VirginiaLonghorn said:

I gather the Chicken is the national symbol since a white flag might offend chickens everywhere?

Not sure about that as far as the chicken. I do know that there is a rest stop we always stop at, about an hour north of Lyon, that has a big metal chicken sculpture.  It’s kinda cool.

 

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Alright the Group C scenarios are pretty complicated.

  • Argentina and Poland basically just each need a win or draw
  • Saudi needs a win
  • Mexico needs a win AND a Poland win, or maybe a huge win alone would do it(?)

There's a lot of edge cases but that's what it boils down to, I think.

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Current Standings

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Poland qualifies with a win or tie against Argentina. Poland can top the group with a victory, or with a draw if Saudi Arabia draws or loses. Poland is not necessarily eliminated with a loss, depending on the tiebreaker, which has goal differential as the first criteria. If Poland loses and Mexico wins, Poland and Mexico would each have four points and be tied for the runner-up spot, with Argentina winning the group. It would then come down to goal differential, followed by goals scored, head-to-head results and then fair-play points. However, if Poland loses and Mexico draws with Saudi Arabia, Poland would then be tied with Saudi Arabia at four points. Again, the runner-up spot would then come down to how many goals Poland loses to Argentina by. If Saudi Arabia wins outright and Poland loses, then Poland is eliminated.

Argentina qualifies with a win against Poland. It also advances with a tie unless Saudi Arabia wins against Mexico, or, in the case of either other result, it wins the tiebreaker. Argentina is eliminated with a loss to Poland. Argentina would win the group if Saudi Arabia draws or loses. If they and Saudi Arabia both win, the group-winner would come down to goal differential, followed by goals scored, and then head-to-head result. So long as Mexico and Saudi Arabia draw, they would be guaranteed to at least advance. If Argentina draws and Mexico defeats Saudi Arabia, Poland would win the group with five points and Argentina and Mexico would be tied at four points. The runner-up spot would then come down to goal differential and goals scored. If Mexico defeats Saudi Arabia by four or more goals, Argentina would not advance with a draw.

Saudi Arabia advances with a win against Mexico. Saudi Arabia can top the group if Poland and Argentina draw. It also advances with a tie if Poland beats Argentina, but is eliminated with a tie if Poland/Argentina also tie. If Saudi Arabia draws and Argentina defeats Poland, Poland would have to lose by a minimum of three goals for Saudi Arabia to advance. In essence, Saudi Arabia cannot qualify if they lose to Mexico or if both games end in a draw.

Mexico qualifies with a win and if Poland beats Argentina. If Mexico wins and there is any other result, a tiebreaker would decide second place. Mexico is eliminated with a tie or a defeat against Saudi Arabia. If Mexico defeats Saudi Arabia by four or more goals, they are guaranteed to advance.

 

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10 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Mexico needs a win AND a Poland win, or maybe a huge win alone would do it(?)

Mexico needs to win by 4 if Argentina wins by 1 - for every increase in what ARG wins by MEX would need 1 less goal.

Mexico needs to win by 4 if there is a draw. 

Basically Mexico has the worst chance of advancing. KSA is through with a win regardless of what happens and with a draw they advance if Poland wins. 

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11 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Mexico needs to win by 4 if Argentina wins by 1 - for every increase in what ARG wins by MEX would need 1 less goal.

Mexico needs to win by 4 if there is a draw. 

Basically Mexico has the worst chance of advancing. KSA is through with a win regardless of what happens and with a draw they advance if Poland wins. 

Yeah I just worked out all the points myself and this seems right. If Poland wins, Mexico just needs to win by any score.

Basically a draw is the worst case scenario for Mexico. Luckily Argentina should be trying to win, because a draw doesn't guarantee them anything.

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13 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Basically a draw is the worst case scenario for Mexico. Luckily Argentina should be trying to win, because a draw doesn't guarantee them anything.

Yes - draw is worst case scenario because it leaves Mexico needing to catch ARG on goal difference (+1) and goals for (3 as it stands) vs. an ARG win which would have them catching Poland on goal difference (no better than +1) and goals for (2 as it stands). 

Best case is Poland win, decent outcome is a big ARG win (like 3 or 4 goals), bad outcome is tight ARG win, worst outcome (likely) is a draw. 

UNLESS Argentina won something like 3-2 or 4-3 - then it would actually be worse for Mexico than a draw - because they'd need to make up the same GD but potentially score more goals to win the goals for tiebreaker (which is 3rd tiebreaker). 

Edited by ztejas
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44 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Fuck Mexico

 

41 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Group c gonna be a shitshow.

We’re hoping for Saudi win and a Poland Argentina tie?

 

21 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Fuck Mexico and Fuck Saudi Arabia. 

Its' going to be a long day for those of us the root for Mexico on this thread today but here it goes:

Viva Mexico!

Although I must say the worst thing that can happen today to the Mexican fan is an aggy style victory where Mexico is within a goal of moving on and they take a moral victory lap. Either they move on or I prefer they get railroaded by Saudi Arabia to get changes to happen. When they were left out in 1982 it led to a fruitful period. The rot needs to be cut out of the Mexican Federation and ownership. Also, I reserve the right to root for the USA as my 1B team. El equipo de todos is a real and heartfelt thing for many that have them as their 1B team and probably had them way before many on this board followed soccer that give us shit.

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5 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

The rot needs to be cut out of the Mexican Federation and ownership.

How much do you think is organizational and how much do you think is the player pool? Because your pool seems to be really poor right now. Of course that could be because leadership is just choosing the wrong guys. 

I feel like in some ways you're where the US was in the last cycle with a bunch of former stars too old to make an impact and the next generation not being there yet. There's no Chicharito or Vela on this team. 

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4 minutes ago, ztejas said:

How much do you think is organizational and how much do you think is the player pool? Because your pool seems to be really poor right now. Of course that could be because leadership is just choosing the wrong guys. 

I feel like in some ways you're where the US was in the last cycle with a bunch of former stars too old to make an impact and the next generation not being there yet. There's no Chicharito or Vela on this team. 

The pool suffers because Mexican clubs want an unrealistic high price for players to go to Europe so not enough are taken. Also, powerful owners want to see their players in the pool over better players. Based on something I read about Chicharito players have to sign away NIL rights to play for the national team. Also, the corruption in "Fuerzas Basicas" must be nasty although I have no evidence other than what goes on in the rest of society. In addition, the Federation makes sure it destroys opportunities for young talent that they see as not walking the line.  I think these are things the Federation  could correct but the folks in the Federation liked things the way they are because Mexico sells out venues and advanced at every world cup.

I have said that the USA will go further quicker because the US player is now in Europe and they have grown up in a society that values winning and hates to lose and has experienced winning at the international level in other sports. "A tie with a taste of victory" was Mexico's calling card in 1994 or 1998 and that told me everything I had to know between the USA players and Mexico players. Hell the talk is all about walking away with a moral victory today by the Mexican commentators, it sucks. In the end the USA and Mexico need each other and teams like Canada to grow. The bullshit CONCACAF pulled of requiring under-23 teams to participate in Copa America needs to be stopped by both Federations. The teams need competition in real tournaments to get to the point of winning it all.

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